U.S. equity futures were lower early Thursday as investors navigated a steady stream of reports about potential negotiations aimed at ending the war in Iran. Oil prices remained above $100 a barrel, the U.S. dollar strengthened slightly and gold slipped. Meanwhile, Jefferies Financial (NYSE:JEF) reported first-quarter results weighed down by losses tied to loans extended to companies that later collapsed.
Futures move lower
Futures tied to the major U.S. stock indexes declined in early trading as markets weighed the likelihood of diplomatic progress in the Iran conflict.
As of 04:18 ET, Dow futures had dropped 203 points, or 0.4%. S&P 500 futures were down 35 points, or 0.5%, while Nasdaq 100 futures fell 156 points, or 0.6%.
Wall Street’s main benchmarks finished the previous session higher on hopes that the United States and Iran could begin discussions to end the conflict, which has been ongoing for nearly a month. Media reports indicated that Tehran had privately signaled openness to talks with Washington. U.S. Vice President JD Vance is also reportedly prepared to travel to Pakistan as early as this weekend to participate in negotiations.
The Wall Street Journal reported that the U.S. and Israel may postpone any attempts to assassinate Iran’s foreign minister or parliament speaker while diplomatic contacts continue.
Despite these developments, the outlook remains uncertain. The two sides appear far apart on the conditions required to end the fighting, and the Pentagon has begun deploying additional ground forces to the Middle East.
At the same time, Israeli officials — whose country has been conducting military operations against Iran alongside the U.S. — are reportedly worried that Washington could announce a one-month ceasefire. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has therefore ordered a new two-day campaign aimed at destroying as much of Iran’s military capacity as possible, according to reports by the New York Times and CNN.
Oil remains above $100 a barrel
With investors trying to make sense of fast-moving developments in the Middle East, oil prices again traded above the $100-per-barrel level on Thursday.
Brent crude futures for May delivery, the global benchmark, were last up 3.4% at $105.73 per barrel. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures also climbed 3.7% to $93.67 per barrel.
Iran is reportedly evaluating a 15-point peace proposal put forward by the United States. At the same time, the White House has warned that further air strikes could be launched if Tehran refuses to reach an agreement. White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt said U.S. President Donald Trump “does not bluff and […] is prepared to unleash hell,” although the Wall Street Journal reported that Trump has privately told aides he would prefer to see the conflict end quickly.
Analysts at Vital Knowledge noted that the Trump administration has scheduled the president’s upcoming trip to China for May 14–15, which could suggest Washington expects the conflict to conclude before then.
Meanwhile, the Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed. The key maritime route — through which roughly one-fifth of the world’s oil and natural gas flows — has been largely inaccessible for weeks due to the threat of Iranian attacks. Oil prices have eased somewhat from the near-$120 per barrel peak seen earlier this month, but they remain well above levels recorded before the conflict erupted in late February.
Dollar strengthens
Oil remaining above $100 per barrel has helped support the U.S. dollar even as some improvement in market risk appetite has emerged, analysts at ING said.
The greenback has been one of investors’ preferred safe-haven assets since the conflict began, rising about 2% over the past month.
A dollar index tracking the currency against a basket of peers — which has been volatile this week amid the flow of headlines about the Iran war — was last up 0.1% at 99.70.
“Markets may well require some more convincing headlines on de-escalation to take the dollar meaningfully lower from here,” ING analysts including Francesco Pesole and Chris Turner said in a note.
Gold slips
The relative strength of the U.S. dollar has limited any rebound in gold prices, which have fallen since the conflict began after reaching a record high earlier this year.
Some analysts have suggested that gold’s strong rally in recent months reduced its appeal relative to other safe-haven assets as investors sought alternatives during a conflict that has spread across the Middle East.
At the same time, expectations that the Federal Reserve could keep interest rates higher for longer in response to an energy-driven inflation shock have weighed on non-yielding assets such as gold.
Spot gold was down 1.7% at $4,432.27 an ounce at 05:02 ET, while gold futures fell 2.7% to $4,461.59 an ounce.
“In the near term, gold is trading inside a defined range. The market needs to clear the mid-$4,500s and hold it to shift the tone. Until that happens, rallies can still run into resistance and turn into selling opportunities,” American Hartford Gold President Max Baecker told Investing.com.
Jefferies earnings disappoint
Elsewhere, Jefferies Financial (NYSE:JEF) reported quarterly results that fell short of expectations, as losses tied to loans extended to companies that later collapsed offset solid investment banking performance during the first quarter.
The firm said it recorded $17 million in losses — after adjusting for compensation and taxes — linked to the collapse of British lender Market Financial Solutions and First Brands, a U.S. auto-parts supplier that filed for bankruptcy.
However, Jefferies President Brian Friedman told Reuters that the environment for mergers, acquisitions and initial public offerings should remain “increasingly strong” provided the Iran conflict reaches a “reasonable end.”
According to Dealogic data cited by Reuters, more than $1 trillion worth of deals have already been announced in 2026, representing a 27% increase compared with the same period in 2025. Potential high-profile technology IPOs expected later this year could add further momentum to dealmaking activity.
Leave a Reply