TotalEnergies (EU:TTE) said improved downstream performance and higher oil and gas output should help absorb the impact of weaker commodity prices in the fourth quarter of 2025.
The French energy group expects fourth-quarter oil and gas production to increase by almost 5% year on year, driven by higher upstream volumes. As a result, full-year 2025 production growth is now projected to be close to 4%, exceeding the company’s earlier guidance of growth of more than 3%.
This rise in production is intended to counter a year-on-year drop of more than $10 per barrel in oil prices.
“Once again, despite a year-on-year decline of more than $10 per barrel in oil prices, the cash flow from business segments this quarter is expected to remain at the same level as last year, supported by accretive Upstream production growth and continued improvement of Downstream results,” the company said in its trading statement.
Shares in TotalEnergies were up around 0.6% in early Paris trading.
The group added that stronger upstream volumes should limit the decline in upstream results to roughly $6 per barrel, a smaller fall than the drop seen in crude prices. During the quarter, oil and gas prices weakened overall, while refining conditions improved markedly. TotalEnergies’ European refining margin indicator climbed to $85.7 per metric ton in the fourth quarter, representing a 231% increase from a year earlier.
Integrated LNG earnings are expected to be broadly in line with the third quarter of 2025, but still down around 40% compared with the same period last year, partly reflecting an 18% year-on-year decline in LNG prices.
In integrated power, cash flow is forecast to increase following farm-downs and minority stake disposals in renewable assets completed during the fourth quarter. These transactions are expected to allow the segment to reach around $2.5 billion in annual cash flow, in line with company guidance.
Leave a Reply