U.S. equity futures moved lower on Friday as investors weighed the growing likelihood that Kevin Warsh could be named the next chair of the Federal Reserve. While strong corporate news from Apple offered some reassurance, a pullback in precious metals and lingering uncertainty around monetary policy kept risk appetite in check. Political nerves also eased slightly after signs emerged that another U.S. government shutdown has been avoided.
Apple posts standout iPhone growth and upbeat guidance
Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) delivered a strong set of results for its fiscal first quarter, comfortably beating market expectations on both revenue and profit. The holiday period proved especially strong, with iPhone sales jumping 23.3% year on year to $85.27bn, marking the fastest quarterly growth in more than four years and the biggest increase since late 2021.
Demand for the latest iPhone 17 lineup, particularly higher-end Pro models, helped Apple lift its global smartphone market share to about 20% in 2025, up from 18% the year before. Looking ahead, the company forecast revenue growth of up to 16% for the March quarter, driven by resilient iPhone demand, a rebound in China and accelerating momentum in India. Operating expenses are expected to rise modestly to between $18.4bn and $18.7bn.
Despite the strong outlook, Apple warned that supply constraints remain an issue. “We’re currently constrained. And at this point, it’s difficult to predict when supply and demand will balance,” CEO Tim Cook said, adding, “we’re seeing less flexibility in supply chains than normal, partly because of our increased demand that I just spoke about.” Ongoing shortages of memory chips continue to limit production across the industry.
U.S. futures slip as caution returns
Wall Street futures traded lower as investors adopted a more defensive stance ahead of the anticipated Fed announcement. By early trading, S&P 500 futures were down around 0.8%, Nasdaq 100 futures had fallen close to 0.9% and Dow futures were lower by a similar margin.
The previous session ended mixed, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite under pressure following post-earnings weakness in Microsoft (NASDAQ:MSFT), while the Dow Jones Industrial Average edged higher. On a weekly basis, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq remain modestly higher, while the Dow is slightly in negative territory.
Attention is also turning to another heavy earnings day, with results due from Exxon Mobil (NYSE:XOM), Chevron (NYSE:CVX), American Express (NYSE:AXP), Verizon (NYSE:VZ), Regeneron Pharmaceuticals (NASDAQ:REGN) and Aon (NYSE:AON).
Kevin Warsh seen as front-runner for Fed role
President Donald Trump said late Thursday that he will soon announce his nominee to succeed Jerome Powell as Federal Reserve chair, intensifying speculation around former Fed governor Kevin Warsh. “A lot of people think that this is somebody that could have been there a few years ago,” Trump said. “It’s going to be somebody that is very respected, somebody that’s known to everybody in the financial world.”
Those comments have been widely interpreted as pointing to Warsh, who narrowly missed out on the role in 2017. Reports indicate Warsh visited the White House this week, and multiple media outlets have said the administration is preparing to nominate him. Warsh is generally viewed as supportive of lower interest rates and broadly aligned with Trump’s policy preferences, while still seen as a relatively mainstream choice.
Trump has repeatedly criticised Powell for not cutting rates more aggressively, sparking concerns about central bank independence. Those concerns were heightened earlier this month when Powell suggested a criminal investigation into a Federal Reserve renovation project was politically motivated.
Last-minute deal averts government shutdown
Political risk eased after lawmakers reached a late-night agreement to prevent another federal government shutdown. The White House and Senate Democrats agreed to move forward with a broad package of spending bills, while temporarily separating funding for the Department of Homeland Security and extending it at current levels for two weeks.
Saturday had been the deadline to pass five spending bills needed to keep large parts of the government running. The compromise is seen as buying time for further negotiations, particularly around immigration enforcement, following renewed scrutiny after the deaths of U.S. citizens Alex Pretti and Renee Good in Minneapolis.
Gold, silver and oil retreat after sharp rallies
Commodities pulled back after recent surges. Gold prices fell sharply from record highs after expectations of a less dovish Fed chair boosted the U.S. dollar. Spot gold dropped 3.1% to $5,184.26 an ounce, while April futures fell 4.1% to $5,151.24. Even after the pullback, gold remains up more than 20% so far in January, on track for a sixth consecutive monthly gain and its strongest monthly rise since 1982.
Other precious metals also cooled after a volatile week, with spot silver sliding 7.3% and platinum down 8.5%. Oil prices eased after a three-day rally, though both Brent and WTI remained on course for weekly gains of more than 5% amid concerns that potential U.S. military action against Iran could disrupt supply. Brent fell to around $68 a barrel, while WTI slipped to about $64.
Markets are also watching the upcoming OPEC+ meeting on Sunday, where the group is widely expected to keep output unchanged after pausing production increases earlier this year amid concerns about oversupply and weakening global demand.
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