Goldman Sachs has slightly lowered its forecast for average copper prices in 2026, now expecting the metal to trade at around $12,650 per tonne compared with its previous estimate of $12,850. The revision reflects softer demand expectations linked to slower global economic growth, although the bank continues to see strong long-term support for copper from electrification trends.
The bank now estimates the global copper market will record a surplus of roughly 490,000 tonnes this year, up from its earlier projection of 380,000 tonnes. At the same time, Goldman reduced its forecast for global refined copper demand growth to 1.6% year-on-year from 2%. The adjustment follows the bank’s economists estimating that the recent energy price shock tied to disruptions in the Middle East could shave about 0.4 percentage points off global GDP growth.
Goldman said the downward adjustment to copper demand is less pronounced than the revision applied to aluminium, reflecting copper’s increasingly structural importance in the global economy.
“This is a smaller demand revision than aluminium because of the increasingly strategic and structural nature of copper demand, making it less sensitive to global economic cycles,” analysts led by Aurelia Waltham said.
In the near term, Goldman expects copper prices to remain volatile but believes the market could stabilize if macroeconomic conditions improve.
In its base-case scenario—which assumes that energy shipments through the Strait of Hormuz begin recovering from mid-April—the bank forecasts copper prices to average about $12,700 per tonne in the second quarter of 2026. Prices are then expected to gradually move toward Goldman’s fair value estimate of roughly $12,000 per tonne during the second half of the year.
The bank also warned that current copper prices may be running ahead of underlying fundamentals. Even after a pullback in March, copper still trades well above Goldman’s estimated fair value for 2026 of around $11,100 per tonne, leaving the metal “vulnerable to another move lower should the economic outlook deteriorate and investors de-risk.”
Goldman added that its forecasts do not yet account for potential supply disruptions linked to tensions in the Middle East. For example, the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), which produces about 15% of global mined copper, depends on sulfur shipments passing through the Strait of Hormuz for a critical stage of its production process.
Industry feedback cited by the bank suggests that producers in the DRC typically maintain sulfuric acid inventories covering up to three months of operations. As a result, a short disruption would likely have limited consequences, although a prolonged interruption could tighten supply and reduce the projected surplus.
Looking further ahead, Goldman left its long-term forecast unchanged and continues to expect copper prices to reach $15,000 per tonne by 2035. The analysts argued that geopolitical tensions in the Middle East could reinforce the electrification theme, noting that power grids and energy infrastructure are projected to account for around 60% of global copper demand growth in their forecasts through 2030.
Leave a Reply