Bitcoin (COIN:BTCUSD) extended its upward momentum on Thursday, rising above $110,000 amid growing optimism around U.S. trade negotiations. Despite the gains, traders remained cautious ahead of key U.S. economic data releases scheduled later in the day.
After trading in a range between $103,000 and $108,000 for several days, Bitcoin finally pushed past resistance on Wednesday. By 09:56 ET (13:56 GMT), it had gained 2.4% to trade at $110,530. The broader cryptocurrency market also benefited, boosted by improved risk sentiment following Wall Street’s record-setting rally in the S&P 500.
Trade Deals Boost Confidence
Bitcoin’s rally was supported by fresh developments in U.S. trade policy. The U.S. and Vietnam struck a trade agreement, marking Washington’s third deal before the July 9 deadline. Additionally, the U.S. relaxed export controls on semiconductor technology to China, part of a broader framework agreement reached last month.
These breakthroughs increased expectations for further trade agreements ahead of the deadline. While a pact with India appears imminent, talks with Japan and South Korea have faced challenges. Former President Trump reaffirmed he will not extend the tariff deadline, adding pressure to finalize deals soon.
Tax Bill and Labor Market Data in Focus
Market participants are closely watching a controversial tax bill set for a House vote Thursday. However, progress remains uncertain after reports of dissent among Republican lawmakers, threatening to delay passage.
Concerns center on the bill’s potential impact on U.S. debt levels and overall economic stability. At the same time, traders await June’s nonfarm payroll report, a critical indicator amid speculation the Federal Reserve could ease monetary policy if the labor market cools.
JPMorgan Lowers Stablecoin Growth Outlook
JPMorgan published a note forecasting stablecoins will reach a market size of $500 billion by 2028, significantly less than some optimistic estimates that project values in the trillions. The bank described such projections as “far too optimistic,” citing limited use of stablecoins for mainstream payments.
Although stablecoins have expanded beyond crypto trading into fintech and banking sectors, JPMorgan highlighted that only about 6% of demand—roughly $15 billion—is related to payment applications.
“The idea that stablecoins will replace traditional money for everyday use is still far from reality,” the report stated.
The stablecoin market currently stands at around $250 billion. While recent U.S. regulatory moves, such as the GENIUS Act, may provide clearer guidelines, JPMorgan remains cautious due to fragmented regulations, slow international adoption, and lack of compelling use cases outside crypto.
Other forecasts have been more bullish—Standard Chartered anticipates a $2 trillion stablecoin market by 2028, and Bernstein predicts growth up to $4 trillion within a decade.
JPMorgan also rejected comparisons to China’s digital yuan and mobile payment giants like Alipay and WeChat Pay, noting these are unlikely to serve as models for stablecoin expansion globally.
Altcoins Gain Ground Alongside Bitcoin
Other cryptocurrencies followed Bitcoin’s lead with notable gains. Ethereum surged over 7% to $2,632.81, XRP climbed 5.4% to $2.29, and Solana rose 3.6%. Cardano rebounded sharply, increasing nearly 8% after steep losses in June.
Meme coins also rallied, with Dogecoin up around 8% and $TRUMP gaining 4.4%.
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