Airbus (EU:AIR) is expected to post a subdued performance in the first quarter of 2026, as lower aircraft deliveries and ongoing supply chain challenges are likely to pressure results, according to analysts.
The European aerospace group is forecast to report revenue of around €12.4 billion, representing an 8% decline year-on-year, alongside a notable drop in profitability. Adjusted EBIT is projected to fall to €311 million, with margins compressing to approximately 2.5%, based on estimates from Morgan Stanley.
The commercial aircraft division, which generates the bulk of Airbus’ revenue, is expected to bear the brunt of the slowdown. Deliveries are anticipated to fall to about 114 aircraft compared with 136 in the same period last year, resulting in a 13% decline in segment revenue.
Operating profit in this unit is forecast to drop sharply to €75 million, reflecting reduced output, a less favourable mix of aircraft, and increased investment in research and development.
A key issue highlighted by analysts is the growing gap between production and deliveries. While deliveries have fallen by nearly 20% so far this year, overall flight activity has declined only slightly, indicating that aircraft may be completed but not yet handed over to customers.
Potential causes include structural panel defects and bottlenecks in repair processes, which may be leaving finished aircraft grounded while awaiting fixes. If these issues are resolved, the backlog could help drive a recovery in deliveries later in the year.
In contrast, Airbus’ Defence & Space and Helicopters divisions are expected to show resilience. Revenues in Defence & Space are projected to increase by 8%, while the Helicopters segment could grow by around 4%, with both maintaining stable margins.
Despite near-term headwinds, Airbus continues to benefit from a strong long-term outlook, supported by an order backlog of roughly 8,800 aircraft and robust demand across global aviation markets.
Morgan Stanley has maintained its price target of €230, expressing confidence that Airbus will recover as supply chain conditions improve.
Leave a Reply