Goldman Sachs reiterated its bullish view on gold, sticking with its forecast for prices to reach $5,400 per troy ounce by year-end as the bank lifted its expectations for central bank demand and projected stronger official-sector buying through 2026.
The Wall Street bank revised its proprietary model tracking central bank gold purchases after determining that it had been consistently undercounting demand since August 2025. Under the updated calculations, its 12-month moving average estimate climbed to 50 tonnes per month in March, up from 29 tonnes previously.
The revised data suggest central banks acquired 66 tonnes of gold in January, compared with an earlier estimate of only 12 tonnes.
Goldman said the change was prompted by a widening disconnect between falling inventories in London vaults and official U.K. trade statistics. Although bullion outflows from London storage facilities continued to rise, British export figures no longer appeared to fully account for those movements, implying that some sovereign transactions were taking place outside recorded trade flows.
“We therefore adjust our nowcast by adding the discrepancy between London vault outflows and UK net exports as unrecorded sovereign gold flows,” Goldman strategists Lina Thomas and Daan Struyven said in a note.
The bank now expects central bank purchases to average 60 tonnes per month throughout 2026, citing survey results that showed “strong underlying interest in gold.” Goldman added that geopolitical developments “are likely to reinforce diversification over time — both for central banks and private investors.”
Still, the strategists cautioned that gold could face short-term pressure during periods of market stress. “Gold’s high liquidity makes it a natural source of cash if private investors face liquidity needs,” they wrote, warning that equity market weakness tied to higher interest rates or slowing growth could trigger temporary selling.
Goldman’s forecasting model relies heavily on U.K. customs data because London’s over-the-counter gold market remains the main hub for sovereign bullion transactions. With minimal domestic production in the U.K., all gold traded there must first be imported before being stored or exported, making trade flows an effective proxy for tracking the final destination of global gold demand.
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