Renault shares rise after carmaker reaffirms full-year guidance (RNO)

Outlook maintained ahead of first-half results

Renault (EU:RNO) shares moved higher on Wednesday after the French carmaker reaffirmed its full-year financial guidance during a pre-close briefing with investors ahead of its first-half results later this month, offering reassurance after a difficult year for the stock.

The shares climbed by as much as 3% in early Paris trading before easing to gains of around 1.7%.

Management remains confident despite market challenges

Renault reiterated its target of achieving a 5.5% operating margin for the full year and maintained its forecast of €1 billion in free cash flow. The company is continuing to execute its long-term strategy under newly appointed Chief Executive François Provost, with plans to sell more than two million Renault-branded vehicles annually by 2030.

Jefferies analysts, led by Philippe Houchois, said the pre-close update “defied the odds by confirming a full-year guidance that sits above consensus.” The brokerage left its own forecasts unchanged, projecting full-year EBIT of €2.76 billion, equivalent to a 4.8% operating margin, alongside free cash flow of €986 million.

Analysts remain cautious on the second half

Despite the reaffirmed guidance, Jefferies continues to take a cautious view of the second half of the year, noting that Renault’s expectation for stronger margins later in the year leaves “risk to the downside given competitive market conditions.”

The bank estimates first-half adjusted EBIT of approximately €1.32 billion, representing a 4.6% operating margin, while forecasting free cash flow to remain close to breakeven.

Renault is scheduled to publish its first-half financial results on 30 July.

Shares continue to recover from a difficult period

Renault’s shares have been under pressure since mid-2025, when the company issued a profit warning, highlighted weaker demand across the European automotive market and announced a change in chief executive.

The group subsequently reported a 15% decline in operating profit for 2025, with its operating margin falling to 6.3% from a record 7.6% a year earlier, before guiding for a further reduction to around 5.5% in 2026.