The International Energy Agency has lowered its global oil supply forecast for 2026, warning that renewed conflict in the Middle East and continued disruption to crucial shipping routes are expected to push the oil market further into deficit.
In its latest monthly oil market report, the IEA said worldwide supply is now forecast to fall by 4.3 million barrels per day this year, equivalent to around 4% of total output. The revised outlook reflects renewed hostilities in the Middle East since July and persistent uncertainty over major maritime transit routes.
“With an agreement enabling the reopening of Hormuz and unhindered transit through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait still elusive, we have again lowered supply estimates for the rest of the year,” the IEA said.
The latest estimate marks a further downgrade from the agency’s July report, which projected a decline of 3.7 million barrels per day. Under the revised forecast, total global oil supply is expected to reach 102.02 million barrels per day, the IEA’s lowest projection for 2026 to date.
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