Copper prices are approaching historic highs as the possibility of US import tariffs draws increasing volumes of refined metal into the United States, tightening supplies elsewhere even though analysts do not see an underlying global shortage.
Three-month copper on the London Metal Exchange reached as much as $14,343 per metric ton on Tuesday, leaving it close to the record of $14,527.50. The move followed orders to withdraw 65,400 tons of copper from LME warehouses over recent days.
The scale of those warrant cancellations has renewed concerns about available supply after rising inventories on the LME and Shanghai Futures Exchange had briefly eased fears of market tightness.
Analysts say the key issue is not a lack of copper globally, but its increasingly uneven distribution. With the metal essential for electricity grids, electric vehicles and AI data centres, the diversion of material towards the US is reducing readily accessible inventories in other markets.
COMEX stockpiling changes copper market dynamics
A premium for copper in the US has encouraged traders to move metal into COMEX warehouses ahead of the possibility of tariffs on refined copper beginning in 2027.
As inventories accumulate in the US, stocks elsewhere are being depleted, effectively tightening a global market that had been expected to produce a sizeable surplus this year.
Robert Edwards, principal copper analyst at CRU, said removing US-stockpiled copper from the available global supply would leave the market “at best a balanced market.”
COMEX inventories have risen for 46 consecutive days and now stand at a record 675,185 metric tons, reflecting an arbitrage trade that benefits from higher US prices.
The accumulation is particularly significant given that CRU had forecast a 639,000-ton global copper surplus for 2026.
“If (U.S.) imports keep coming in as they have been, then it’s going to look like a deficit market in reality,” Edwards said.
US imports of refined copper cathodes approached 885,000 tons during the first six months of 2026, about 3% above the same period last year and more than double the amount imported in the first half of 2024.
The country had already imported a record 1.64 million tons of refined copper during 2025.
Trump tariff decision could trigger another price shock
The copper market faced a similar situation last year, although refined metal was eventually exempted from tariffs, triggering an immediate price reversal.
Uncertainty has returned because the US Commerce Department was due to report to the White House on copper markets by June 30, allowing President Donald Trump to determine whether a 15% tariff should be introduced from January 1, 2027, followed by a 30% rate from 2028.
The huge inventories accumulated in the US could take a long time to work through, according to Macquarie strategist Alice Fox.
“Based on our numbers, you’re looking at years for that metal to get consumed,” she said.
Macquarie sees greater downside risks for copper under some scenarios, but Fox said prices would “massively spike” if Trump ultimately decides to implement the tariff.
Glencore argues clarity could bring prices lower
Glencore chief executive Gary Nagle believes uncertainty itself is a major reason behind copper’s strength and expects a definitive tariff announcement could ultimately put downward pressure on prices.
Whether Washington chooses a tariff of zero, 15% or 30%, a confirmed decision would remove an important source of uncertainty from the market.
“You’ll have these high stockpiles in the U.S., which over time will be drawn down for use … not to be exported again” because of the costs involved, Nagle said during an earnings call.
Copper already stored in COMEX warehouses is duty-paid, potentially encouraging those inventories to remain inside the US market.
That could leave other regions facing continued supply pressure. China, despite being the world’s largest copper-smelting country, may have limited ability to fill the gap because of strong domestic demand, according to Amelia Fu, head of commodities market strategy at Bank of China International.
Fu said low inventories, disruption at copper mines and an outage at Indonesia’s Gresik smelter were adding to market tightness.
“We could see new record highs in copper prices in coming weeks or months,” she said.
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