Oil prices edged higher on Wednesday as markets weighed signs of improving crude supplies from the Gulf against continuing risks to shipping in the Middle East and the possibility of weather-related disruption to US production.
At 08:08 GMT, Brent crude futures were up 0.4% at $100.96 a barrel. US West Texas Intermediate futures were broadly unchanged at $89.47 a barrel.
Crude prices had initially fallen towards $97 a barrel in the previous session after data showed that Gulf oil exporters exceeded pre-war export levels for approximately half of September.
Supply expectations were also affected by a Group of Seven commitment to release emergency energy reserves and the reopening of Saudi Arabia’s East-West pipeline.
Brent subsequently moved back above $100 as investors assessed reports of further Iranian attacks on tankers travelling through the Strait of Hormuz. Deutsche Bank analysts cited the developments as a source of renewed caution over regional supplies.
Iranian state media also reported that an explosion had been heard near Qeshm island, close to the Strait of Hormuz, adding to uncertainty surrounding tanker movements through the area.
Middle East Shipping Routes Remain Under Pressure
Fighting between Saudi-aligned coalition forces in Yemen and Iran-backed Houthi forces has also intensified.
Government forces and Saudi Arabia have increased air strikes against Houthi-controlled areas, including locations near the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, another important route for oil shipments from the region.
ING analysts said, “There is a clear tug-of-war at the moment between improving supply from the region and lingering threats to supply. Clearly, it’s looking as though the only way to see prices trade sustainably lower is for lingering risks to be addressed.”
The analysts added: “For now, the market is likely to remain nervous to any potential supply disruptions.”
Potential Hurricane Adds to US Supply Uncertainty
Oil markets are also monitoring a developing storm that could affect US energy-producing regions.
Forecasters said the storm could develop into the first Atlantic hurricane of 2026 within two days and potentially approach areas accounting for approximately 15% of US crude production and 5% of the country’s natural gas output, according to Reuters.
Separately, US crude inventories declined by 2.09 million barrels in the week to October 2, according to American Petroleum Institute data released on Tuesday.
Official US inventory figures are due later on Wednesday.
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