Energy prices are weighing on American voters, with 74% very concerned about gas and energy costs, up from 60% in July and 43% in January, according to a Pew Research Center survey conducted September 28–October 4, 2026.
Heading into the midterms, numbers like these obviously put Republicans at a disadvantage, hence another TACO over the weekend, bringing Russian diesel back to global markets, including the U.S.
Under the deal, Russia will supply 300,000 tonnes of diesel immediately, 500,000 tonnes in November, and 1 million tonnes later, with another 3 million tonnes potentially to follow, after the U.S. Treasury temporarily lifted sanctions on Russian fuel imports until April 7, 2027.
Still, Brent crude hit $107 a barrel on Monday, while the IMF raised its average oil price forecasts for 2026 and 2027. Why doesn’t the market care?
First, agreeing to supply fuel is one thing; actually delivering it is another. Russian refineries are still struggling with Ukrainian drone strikes, raising questions about how much diesel Russia can realistically supply, despite Moscow’s claims of a surplus.
Second, as The Wall Street Journal noted, the volumes are too small to offset the global shortfall caused by disruptions to Middle Eastern fuel exports amid the war in Iran and damage to Russian refining capacity, while U.S. refineries are already running close to full capacity.
Meanwhile, Iran has warned regional countries that another war could trigger ground incursions into neighboring states, raising the risk of further supply disruptions in the Middle East.
Resolving the energy crisis requires peace in the Middle East, but the signs point in the opposite direction. As geopolitical tensions keep inflation risks elevated and pressure on global bond markets, US inflation data will take center stage on this week’s economic calendar.
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