Oil prices rose sharply on Friday as renewed concerns about potential US military operations against Iran increased uncertainty over Middle Eastern energy supplies, pushing Brent crude towards its highest level in six months.
The latest gains followed reports that President Donald Trump had received a briefing on military options involving Iran, even as diplomatic contacts continued in an attempt to bring the conflict to an end.
At 04:14 ET (08:14 GMT), December Brent crude futures advanced 2.3% to $117.17 per barrel, while US West Texas Intermediate futures increased 1.8% to $103.80.
Brent reached an intraday high of $117.84, its strongest level since late April.
Both benchmarks were positioned to record a fourth consecutive monthly increase of more than 10%, reflecting the continuing influence of geopolitical risks on global crude markets.
US Military Briefing Raises Concerns About Further Escalation
Oil market sentiment deteriorated following reports that senior US defence officials had outlined possible military action against Iran during a White House meeting on Thursday.
The Wall Street Journal reported that Admiral Brad Cooper, head of US Central Command, briefed President Trump on potential operations.
Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth and other senior officials also attended the discussions.
According to the report, the meeting addressed the continuing US blockade and options for restarting major combat operations against Iran.
Trump had previously indicated that further strikes could take place after the November 3 US midterm elections.
When asked on Wednesday whether additional attacks were under consideration, he said that “anything’s possible.”
The comments reinforced uncertainty over the direction of US policy and raised the possibility of another escalation in the conflict.
For oil markets, the principal concern is that renewed military action could disrupt production facilities, export terminals or maritime transportation routes across the Middle East.
Such developments could reduce available supplies and increase the cost of transporting crude to international markets.
Washington Pursues Diplomacy as Tehran Rejects Proposed Settlement
Despite the possibility of further military action, US officials have continued efforts to restart negotiations with Iran.
Vice President JD Vance has contacted Iranian security official Mohsen Rezaei as Washington explores potential diplomatic arrangements.
Mediators have also been developing proposals aimed at establishing a framework for ending the conflict.
However, reports that Tehran rejected a proposed settlement have cast doubt on the likelihood of an agreement being reached in the near term.
The competing prospects of diplomatic progress and military escalation have contributed to volatility in crude markets.
A negotiated settlement could reduce the threat of supply disruptions and encourage traders to reassess the geopolitical premium currently reflected in oil prices.
Conversely, a breakdown in negotiations could increase expectations of further military activity and place additional pressure on regional energy infrastructure.
Investors are therefore closely monitoring political developments for indications of whether the conflict is moving towards de-escalation or renewed confrontation.
Strait of Hormuz Shipping Risks Remain a Major Market Concern
The Strait of Hormuz remains central to the outlook for global oil supplies.
The waterway connects the Persian Gulf with international shipping routes and serves as an important passage for crude exports from major Middle Eastern producers.
Any interruption to commercial traffic through the strait could affect oil shipments and create uncertainty over the availability of supplies in importing countries.
Concerns about the security of the route have intensified as Washington considers its next steps towards Iran.
Energy traders are monitoring potential threats to tankers, shipping infrastructure and export facilities.
Even without a confirmed interruption to oil flows, the possibility of disruption can influence prices as market participants account for geopolitical uncertainty.
This risk premium has helped support Brent and WTI during the recent period of escalating tensions.
Saudi Arabia Intercepts Houthi Missile Amid Refinery Threats
Additional developments in the region have added to concerns about the security of major energy facilities.
Saudi Arabia’s air defence systems intercepted a ballistic missile launched by Yemen’s Iran-aligned Houthi movement towards the kingdom’s Eastern Province, according to the Saudi Press Agency.
The interception was reported on Thursday, following claims by the Houthis that they had targeted the Ras Tanura refinery earlier in the week.
The refinery is an important component of Saudi Arabia’s energy infrastructure, making threats against the facility significant for international oil markets.
The latest incidents highlight the continuing risk that attacks could affect processing facilities, storage sites and export operations.
Market participants remain sensitive to any developments that could disrupt Saudi production or the movement of crude from the region.
Although the extent of any immediate impact remains uncertain, the continuing security threats have contributed to the upward pressure on oil prices.
Unexpected US Inventory Draw Adds to Bullish Oil Sentiment
Oil prices also received support from US supply data showing an unexpected decline in commercial crude inventories.
The Energy Information Administration reported that US crude stocks fell by 1.9 million barrels during the week ended October 23.
Total commercial inventories declined to 410.6 million barrels.
The reduction contrasted with analyst expectations for a modest increase, suggesting that the US market was tighter than anticipated.
Falling inventories can support crude prices by indicating reduced available supply, particularly when markets are already concerned about international disruptions.
The latest figures therefore reinforced the positive price momentum generated by geopolitical developments.
The combination of lower US stockpiles and uncertainty surrounding Iran has strengthened expectations that oil prices could remain elevated in the near term.
Oil Outlook Hinges on Diplomatic Progress and Regional Security
The direction of crude prices will continue to depend heavily on developments in the Middle East.
Further diplomatic engagement between Washington and Tehran could ease concerns about military escalation and reduce the risk premium associated with regional supply disruptions.
However, additional strikes, missile attacks or threats to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz could increase market uncertainty and support higher prices.
Investors will also monitor US inventory reports for indications of changing supply conditions.
With Brent trading above $117 per barrel and having reached its highest level since late April, geopolitical developments remain a major influence on market sentiment.
Both Brent and WTI were heading towards a fourth consecutive monthly gain exceeding 10%, highlighting the strength of the recent advance.
The balance between diplomatic negotiations, military developments and physical oil availability will remain central to the near-term outlook for international crude prices.
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