Oil Retreats as Russia-Ukraine Peace Hopes Fade and U.S. Tariffs Hit India

Oil prices dipped in Asian trading on Friday following gains in the previous session, as investors weighed the fading prospects of a Russia-Ukraine peace deal and considered the effects of additional U.S. tariffs on Indian imports.

As of 21:52 ET (01:52 GMT), October Brent crude futures fell 0.8% to $68.10 per barrel, while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) futures dropped 0.7% to $64.14 per barrel.

Thursday had seen both contracts close nearly 1% higher, shrugging off early declines after U.S. data showed crude stockpiles fell less than expected. Despite short-term gains, both Brent and WTI are on track for monthly losses exceeding 6%, pressured by continued production increases from OPEC.

Peace Talks Between Russia and Ukraine Lose Momentum

Optimism over peace negotiations has waned following U.S. President Donald Trump’s recent call for Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and Russian President Vladimir Putin to hold direct talks before any trilateral summit in Washington.

Although Trump offered U.S. security guarantees without deploying troops, no date or venue for discussions has been established, and analysts see little likelihood of near-term progress. Meanwhile, Russia conducted new attacks on Kyiv, hitting buildings that house the EU mission and the British Council.

“The lack of progress towards a peace deal means risks of sanctions and secondary tariffs continue to hang over the oil market,” ING analysts said in a note.

U.S. Tariffs on Indian Imports Stir Caution

In response to India’s continued purchases of Russian crude, the U.S. implemented an additional 25% tariff on Indian imports on Wednesday, bringing the total duty to 50% from August 27. The move is part of broader efforts to limit India-Russia trade amid the Ukraine conflict.

Indian refiners briefly paused Russian oil purchases after the secondary tariffs were introduced but have since resumed imports, highlighting the limited effect of the measure on flows. Analysts expect the market to monitor Russian oil shipments to India closely to assess any ongoing impact.

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