Oil markets were relatively stable in Tuesday’s Asian session, maintaining gains from the previous day as investors balanced concerns over potential supply disruptions from the Russia-Ukraine conflict against rising output from OPEC+ members.
At 21:03 ET (01:03 GMT), November Brent crude futures were up 0.3% at $68.33 per barrel, following Monday’s gain of over 1%. WTI futures, which did not trade Monday due to the U.S. Labor Day holiday, rose 1.3% from Friday’s close to $64.81 per barrel.
Supply Risks from Russia in Focus
Prices climbed on Monday amid reports of renewed Ukrainian strikes on Russian refining and export infrastructure. Expectations for a peace agreement between Russia and Ukraine have cooled after U.S. President Donald Trump encouraged direct talks between President Zelenskyy and President Putin last month, prior to a potential trilateral summit in Washington.
The intensified attacks have increased the likelihood of additional sanctions on Russia, potentially disrupting oil supplies and pushing prices higher. The U.S. and its allies have also reinforced secondary sanctions on Russian crude, although these measures have so far only modestly affected shipments to Asia. Washington recently imposed an extra 25% tariff on Indian imports of Russian crude, raising total duties to 50% from August 27, in response to New Delhi’s increased purchases.
OPEC+ Meeting in the Spotlight
Offsetting these concerns, production gains from OPEC+ in recent months have sparked worries of a global supply surplus. Market participants are now eyeing the cartel’s upcoming meeting on September 7 for guidance on production policy.
Bloomberg surveys suggest that OPEC+ is likely to maintain current output levels, pausing after a period of accelerated supply increases. Traders are also watching for U.S. nonfarm payrolls data due Friday, which could reinforce expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut this month. Lower interest rates tend to support oil by stimulating economic activity, weakening the dollar, and making commodities more appealing to investors.
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