U.S. stock futures edged higher ahead of a trading week packed with crucial economic releases and the looming risk of a federal government shutdown. Investors are watching closely for September’s nonfarm payrolls report, which could shed light on the state of the American labor market and influence the Federal Reserve’s policy stance in the coming months. Analysts, however, caution that a potential shutdown might delay the release of these numbers. Meanwhile, Carnival Corp is set to report earnings, and gold continues to hit new record levels.
Futures on the Rise
On Monday, U.S. stock futures pointed upward as traders anticipated the jobs report and weighed the implications of a possible government shutdown. By 02:56 ET, Dow futures were up 161 points (0.4%), S&P 500 futures gained 27 points (0.4%), and Nasdaq 100 futures rose 124 points (0.5%).
Last week, the main indices ended in positive territory following U.S. inflation data that broadly met expectations. However, all three benchmarks finished lower for the week, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite snapping three-week winning streaks.
Jobs Report Under Scrutiny
Market attention is now turning to Friday’s nonfarm payrolls release for September, which could provide insights into U.S. employment trends. A softer jobs picture has been a key focus for the Fed, which cut interest rates by 25 basis points earlier this month and emphasized that slowing employment may take priority over persistent inflation.
Federal Reserve projections also indicate that many policymakers expect additional rate cuts before year-end. While lower rates can stimulate hiring and investment, they also carry the risk of higher inflation. Economists forecast an increase of 51,000 jobs in September, up from 22,000 in August, with the unemployment rate expected to hold at 4.3%.
Observers note that, given elevated inflation, a strong jobs report might lead the Fed to pace future rate cuts more cautiously. Analysts at ING warned that the broader jobs market “looks ominous,” adding that this is partly because “consumers themselves […] noticing that hiring conditions are deteriorating.”
Government Shutdown Concerns
Adding to market uncertainty is the potential for a U.S. government shutdown this week, which could delay the jobs report. Congress faces a Tuesday deadline to pass a stopgap funding bill, or the federal government could enter its 15th partial shutdown since 1981.
Republicans control both chambers, but support from some Democrats is needed to pass the legislation. Democrats have rejected a short-term proposal, demanding any bill reverse Republican reductions to healthcare programs. Leaders from both parties are scheduled to meet President Donald Trump on Monday. Speaking to Reuters over the weekend, Trump said he has “the impression” that Democrats may want to reach an agreement.
Carnival Earnings in Spotlight
Carnival Corp (NYSE:CCL) leads the week’s corporate earnings, as investors gauge the performance of the cruise industry amid rising consumer interest in travel experiences. Many consumers, cautious about broader economic uncertainty, are opting to spend on cruises rather than land-based vacations, driving Carnival’s margins to their highest in nearly 20 years during Q2.
The Holland America and Princess operator raised its annual profit outlook in June, highlighting “remarkable resilience amid heightened volatility.” Analysts also noted that favorable exchange rates have boosted the company’s second-half forecast. Carnival shares, which Bloomberg consensus estimates expect to report third-quarter EPS of $1.32, have climbed more than 22% this year.
Gold Hits Record High
Gold surged past $3,800 an ounce as investors sought safe-haven assets amid shutdown concerns. Expectations of further Fed rate cuts also underpinned bullion, which tends to perform well during periods of lower rates or heightened economic and geopolitical uncertainty.
By 03:34 ET, spot gold had jumped 1.4% to $3,810.85/oz, while futures rose 0.8% to $3,839.10/oz. Broader metals also advanced, supported by a weaker dollar after last week’s inflation data kept markets betting on additional rate cuts before the end of 2025.
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