Oil prices stabilized on Wednesday following two days of declines, as investors evaluated OPEC+ intentions for a larger production increase next month alongside the economic uncertainty triggered by the U.S. government shutdown.
Brent crude for December delivery edged up 25 cents to $66.28 a barrel by 06:43 GMT, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude rose 22 cents to $62.59 a barrel. Both benchmarks had posted declines of more than 3% on Monday—the steepest daily losses since August 1—and fell another 1.5% on Tuesday.
“The weakness stems largely from supply-side developments, with OPEC gradually reviving production … adding to market concerns over a potential supply overhang,” said Sugandha Sachdeva, founder of SS WealthStreet, a research firm based in New Delhi.
According to sources familiar with the discussions, OPEC+—the coalition of oil-exporting nations—could approve a production increase of up to 500,000 barrels per day (bpd) in November, triple October’s hike, as Saudi Arabia seeks to reclaim market share. Eight members of the group, representing about half of global oil output, are reportedly considering boosts of 274,000 to 411,000 bpd, while a third source indicated the rise could reach 500,000 bpd.
OPEC clarified in a post on X that media reports suggesting a 500,000 bpd output increase were misleading.
Further pressure on crude came from an industry report showing U.S. oil inventories fell, while gasoline and distillate stocks climbed last week. Market sources citing American Petroleum Institute data estimated that crude stocks dropped by 3.67 million barrels in the week ending September 26. Gasoline inventories rose 1.3 million barrels, and distillate stocks increased by 3 million barrels.
“While U.S. crude inventories have been on a declining trend, the pace of drawdowns has slowed, tempering bullish sentiment,” Sachdeva added.
The U.S. government shut down much of its operations on Wednesday due to deep partisan divisions, preventing Congress and the White House from agreeing on a funding plan. Agencies warned that this 15th shutdown since 1981 would delay the release of a closely watched September jobs report, slow air travel, suspend scientific research, halt pay for U.S. troops, and furlough 750,000 federal workers at a daily cost of $400 million.
Meanwhile, data from Asia—the world’s largest oil-consuming region—added to concerns about fuel demand. Surveys released Wednesday indicated that manufacturing activity contracted across most major economies in September, pressured by weaker Chinese demand, softer U.S. growth, and looming tariffs.
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