Markets this week remain focused on the ongoing partial shutdown of the U.S. federal government, which has delayed several critical economic releases ahead of an upcoming Federal Reserve policy meeting. Investors will also digest the minutes from the Fed’s September gathering, alongside earnings from major companies including Constellation Brands (NYSE:STZ) and Delta Air Lines (NYSE:DAL).
U.S. Government Shutdown in Focus
U.S. stock futures rose on Monday as traders monitored the continued federal shutdown in Washington and awaited both a Fed interest rate decision and the start of third-quarter earnings later this month.
The partial government closure has pushed back key economic data releases, notably the highly anticipated nonfarm payrolls report.
“The absence of official data has heightened attention on private economic indicators,” analysts at Vital Knowledge said in a note, noting that trackers of private employment and business activity have signaled “darkening storm clouds” and rising inflation.
With the Fed poised to announce a fresh rate decision in October, the lack of government figures has taken on added significance. Despite the data gap, markets broadly expect additional rate cuts at upcoming policy meetings, according to CME’s FedWatch Tool.
As the shutdown continues, political deadlock persists. A senior White House official warned on Sunday that mass layoffs of federal workers could begin if talks with congressional Democrats to end the shutdown are “absolutely going nowhere.”
FOMC Minutes
Traders will scrutinize the minutes from the Fed’s September meeting on Wednesday. During that session, the central bank cut interest rates for the first time since December, emphasizing support for the labor market over inflation concerns.
Officials also signaled the potential for further cuts at the Fed’s remaining meetings in October and December, though the scope of future reductions in 2026 remains uncertain.
“[A] cut is fully priced for this month, and the same is virtually true of December’s meeting,” ING analysts noted. “The much bigger debate is what happens in 2026. And the government shutdown — and the resulting data void — is unlikely to materially change that.”
OpenAI DevDay
Attention will also be on OpenAI’s developers’ conference this week. CEO Sam Altman teased over the weekend that the event will introduce “some new stuff” designed to help users “build” with artificial intelligence.
Recently valued at $500 billion, OpenAI launched its AI video-generating app Sora in the U.S. and Canada. The tool allows users to create and share AI-generated videos, including those derived from copyrighted content.
Tensions have surfaced, particularly in Hollywood, as OpenAI negotiates with copyright holders. Reports indicate at least one major studio plans to prevent its content from appearing in Sora.
Constellation Brands Earnings
Constellation Brands is set to report its August-quarter results after Monday’s close. The company fell short of both sales and profit estimates last quarter and continues to face the dual pressures of Trump-era aluminum tariffs and broader economic uncertainty, which have constrained consumer spending on beer and wine.
A sweeping crackdown on immigration has also been cited as a factor affecting beer demand, particularly among Hispanic consumers. Analysts warn that these headwinds may intensify an already subdued demand environment.
Delta Air Lines Earnings
Delta Air Lines will release its latest quarterly results on Thursday, following a reaffirmation of its full-year and current-quarter guidance.
In September, Delta revised upward the lower end of its third-quarter revenue forecast to a 2%-4% increase, compared with a prior range of 0%-4%. This reflects a generally more optimistic view of the U.S. travel sector after earlier-year turmoil linked to Trump’s import tariffs.
Industry observers note that travelers took advantage of discounts and promotions during summer, and executives expect resilient demand could allow airlines to raise fares in the latter part of 2025.
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