Oil prices continued to climb on Tuesday after OPEC+ announced a smaller-than-anticipated production hike for November, easing some market concerns over an expanding supply glut.
By 06:23 GMT, Brent crude futures were up 19 cents, or 0.29%, to $65.66 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) gained 19 cents, or 0.31%, to $61.88. Both benchmarks had already finished more than 1% higher in the prior session following OPEC+’s decision to raise collective production by 137,000 barrels per day starting next month.
The modest increase came as a surprise to traders who had expected a more aggressive supply boost. According to analysts at ING, the move suggests that OPEC+ remains cautious about expanding its production share amid forecasts of a potential surplus later this year and into 2026.
“Brent had fallen by around $5 per barrel last week in response to earlier expectations of a larger supply boost, so this mild rebound seems reasonable,” said Anh Pham, a senior analyst at LSEG.
“For now, the market still appears capable of accommodating the extra volume, and we have yet to see a shift into contango at the front of the curve,” he added.
So far in 2025, OPEC+ has lifted its output targets by more than 2.7 million barrels per day, equivalent to about 2.5% of global demand.
Geopolitical tensions have also provided support for prices, with the Russia–Ukraine conflict continuing to disrupt energy flows. Russia’s Kirishi oil refinery halted operations at its key CDU-6 distillation unit after an October 4 drone strike and fire, and recovery is expected to take roughly a month, two industry sources said on Monday.
Despite these supportive factors, crude prices remain under pressure from rising production across both OPEC+ and non-OPEC+ members. Analysts warn that any slowdown in demand—particularly if weak economic growth results from U.S. trade tariffs—could deepen the expected surplus and limit future price gains.
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