Campari (BIT:CPR) is gaining ground on the Borsa Italiana after Pernod Ricard (EU:RI) published its quarterly results, accompanied by a confident forecast for the months ahead.
Campari’s stock rose 3% within the first hour of trading, reaching €5.636 — its highest level since last Friday. This rebound helps trim year-to-date losses to around 8%, compared to €6.10 at the start of January.
Meanwhile in Paris, Pernod Ricard shares are also in the spotlight, up 2% and trading above €85. The world’s second-largest Western spirits producer after Diageo reported revenue of €2.38 billion for its fiscal first quarter, beating consensus expectations. This result came despite a negative currency impact of €143 million and a €54 million perimeter effect linked to the sale of its wine business.
The French group reaffirmed its expectation of stronger sales for the fiscal year ending June 30, 2026, with growth expected to be concentrated in the second half of the year. It also reiterated its plan to deliver €1 billion in operating efficiencies by 2029, aiming to defend margins and boost cash generation. These forecasts came even as first-quarter sales declined 7.6%, reflecting weak demand and inventory reductions in China and the U.S.
Pernod Ricard anticipates a recovery in the second half of the year, helped by higher cognac sales in duty-free stores and easier year-on-year comparisons. Still, the group remains cautious about China ahead of the Lunar New Year period in mid-February.
The company’s performance was dented by a 16% drop in U.S. sales and a 27% fall in China, partly offset by growth in India (+3%) and solid results in Canada, Turkey, Japan, and South Africa. By region, sales declined 12% in the Americas, 7% in Asia and the rest of the world, 4% in Europe, and 15% in Travel Retail.
“Pernod Ricard’s ‘soft’ results reflect broader inventory reduction trends in the United States and China, confirming the challenging macroeconomic environment for premium spirits at the start of fiscal 2026,” analysts at WebSim Intermonte explained. However, they added, “Pernod’s improved sell-out in the United States and resilience in secondary markets (Canada, Japan, Turkey, South Africa) are encouraging signs that underlying consumer demand remains intact.”
For Campari, “this could imply a relatively better structure, especially if it is able to record positive organic growth in the same period,” according to the company.
“Overall, although short-term challenges persist in the US, the medium-term read-across remains positive, with Campari likely to show greater resilience thanks to its diversified mix of brands and geographies,” Intermonte added.
“Pernod Ricard’s data is weak, although we believe the scenario outlined is already largely priced into the current valuations of the two stocks. Both have been in the red since the beginning of the year and have lost over 60% of their value since their record peak in 2023,” the experts concluded.
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