Getlink (EU:GET) reported largely stable third-quarter revenue on Tuesday, broadly matching market expectations, and reiterated its EBITDA guidance for the 2025 financial year.
Group revenue for the quarter came in at €472 million, narrowly missing the consensus estimate of €473 million. The slight shortfall was mainly due to marginally softer pricing trends in both Railway Network and Shuttle Services.
Eurostar passenger traffic rose 7.1% year over year to 3,194,000, surpassing forecasts of 3,184,000. This supported Railway Network revenue of €108 million, just below the €110 million analysts had expected. Shuttle Services revenue reached €242 million, reflecting a 1.1% year-on-year price increase, slightly under the anticipated 1.2%.
In total, Eurotunnel divisional revenue amounted to €364 million, compared with a consensus of €365 million. Europorte delivered €42 million, in line with forecasts.
ElecLink, the group’s electricity transmission arm, generated €66 million in quarterly revenue — down 13% from the previous year but consistent with projections. As of the end of September, ElecLink had secured €217 million in annual revenue, representing 97% of capacity utilization, up from €205 million and 92% in June. Looking ahead to 2026, €176 million in revenue has already been locked in, covering 59% of capacity, compared to 46% earlier in the year, according to Jefferies.
The company reaffirmed its 2025 EBITDA guidance in the range of €780 million to €830 million, assuming an exchange rate of £1 = €1.184.
Analysts at Kepler Cheuvreux highlighted that Shuttle volumes remain below pre-pandemic levels, while Eurostar has bounced back more quickly thanks to a healthier passenger mix. However, regulated pricing continues to limit full inflation pass-through.
Getlink currently trades at a next-twelve-month free cash flow yield of 5.1% and a dividend yield of 4.2%, compared with its three-year averages of around 7.2% and 3.9%, respectively, Jefferies noted.
Kepler Cheuvreux pointed out that the company’s performance is closely tied to Shuttle and Eurostar traffic trends as well as the electricity price spread between France and the UK. The firm also emphasized that Getlink is ready for the new European Entry/Exit System border controls, which are not expected to have any immediate impact on results.
The contribution from ElecLink has normalized compared with last year. Ongoing competition from ferries is being partly offset by anti-dumping regulations in France and the UK, as well as EU environmental regulations.
Kepler Cheuvreux cautioned that moderate dividend growth may prove less appealing in an environment of elevated bond yields. It identified several key risks to the outlook: significant fluctuations in Shuttle and Eurostar traffic, material shifts in the France–UK power price differential, and potential volatility in the bond market.
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