Ipsos (EU:IPS) saw its shares drop 3.5% after the company lowered its full-year 2025 organic growth outlook, even as it delivered stronger-than-expected third-quarter results.
Organic growth came in at 2.9% for the quarter, slightly ahead of the 2.7% forecast. On a six-year compound annual growth rate (CAGR) from 2019 to 2025, this represented an improvement from 3.3% to 3.4%, highlighting continued momentum in key markets.
The Americas led regional performance with growth of 4.3%. The U.S. market, under new leadership, rose 3% over the first nine months of the year versus 1.2% for the Americas overall. This came despite a 15% decline in Public Affairs, offset by strong demand from consumer packaged goods companies and improved results in the healthcare sector.
Most business segments improved sequentially in the third quarter. The Consumer division—which accounts for about half of group sales—accelerated from 1.6% growth in Q2 to 4.9% in Q3. Healthcare posted 4.4% growth, slightly down from 5.2% the prior quarter. Public Affairs remained in decline but showed signs of stabilization, improving from -8.7% in Q2 to -4.7% in Q3.
Despite the operational strength, Ipsos trimmed its full-year organic growth guidance from “1%+” to 0.7%, below the 1.3% recorded in 2024. The company attributed the downgrade to delays caused by the U.S. government shutdown and spending constraints in markets such as France and the UK.
The revision follows a weaker order intake in September, particularly in Public Affairs across the U.S., France, and Australia/New Zealand—contrasting with the company’s confident tone during its mid-September investor conference.
The updated guidance implies Q4 organic growth of roughly 0.5%, down from the previous 2.2% expectation. Ipsos, however, maintained its full-year 2025 margin outlook of around 12.4%, or 13% excluding the dilutive impact of consolidating lower-margin BVA Family.
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