U.S. stock futures slipped early Monday as traders opened the books on December, weighing signs of cooling risk appetite tied to ongoing unease in the artificial intelligence sector. Despite the cautious tone, the S&P 500 remains up roughly 16% this year, and December has historically been a supportive month for the index. Online Black Friday spending surged to record levels even as doubts grow about the resilience of U.S. consumers. Meanwhile, oil prices advanced after OPEC+ confirmed it will keep supply unchanged through the first quarter of 2026.
U.S. futures soften
Futures pointed lower to start the week, with investors monitoring profit expectations in the AI space and evaluating the likelihood of a Federal Reserve rate cut later in December.
By 03:16 ET, Dow futures were down 234 points (0.5%), S&P 500 futures fell 41 points (0.6%), and Nasdaq 100 futures retreated 189 points (0.7%).
Friday’s holiday-shortened session ended on a positive note, though trading volume remained subdued. All three major indexes finished the week more than 3% higher. The S&P 500 and Dow booked a solid November, while the Nasdaq Composite shed 1.51% amid renewed doubts about extended tech valuations and heavy AI-related spending that is frequently debt-financed.
Elsewhere, shares of CME Group inched higher after the exchange operator faced a brief outage that froze futures trading across multiple markets ahead of Friday’s open.
Black Friday spending hits new highs
Even as consumer confidence dropped to its weakest level in seven months, Americans spent aggressively during Black Friday, using AI-powered search tools to track discounts and optimize purchases.
Adobe Analytics reported that online sales hit a record $11.8 billion, up 9.1% from last year, with AI-driven traffic to retail sites soaring more than 800%.
Mastercard SpendingPulse data showed e-commerce sales rising 10.4%.
Oil climbs as OPEC+ keeps supply steady
Crude prices rose more than 1% after OPEC+ reconfirmed it will hold production levels steady in early 2026 and geopolitical tensions resurfaced.
At 20:52 ET (01:52 GMT), February Brent futures rose 1.2% to $63.13 a barrel, while WTI futures gained 1.2% to $59.27.
The alliance reaffirmed voluntary cuts of roughly 3.24 million barrels per day, taking a cautious stance as it faces inconsistent demand trends and potential oversupply next year.
Oil received further support after attacks on Russian energy facilities interrupted shipments. The Caspian Pipeline Consortium suspended exports following a drone strike that damaged a mooring structure at its Novorossiysk terminal.
BOJ’s Ueda raises prospects of rate hike
The yen strengthened after Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda signaled that policymakers will weigh the “pros and cons” of a rate hike at their December 18–19 meeting.
According to ING analysts, Ueda also suggested that new Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi — long viewed as a supporter of looser policy — may not oppose higher rates.
“This second factor had been crucial for markets, whose basic understanding was that Takaichi was a dovish-leaning influence,” they wrote.
Markets interpreted Ueda’s comments as hawkish, increasing expectations for what could become the BOJ’s first rate hike since abandoning negative rates. Rising Japanese government bond yields further bolstered the yen.
Asian manufacturing reports draw attention
Investors also digested a series of manufacturing surveys across Asia. China’s factory sector contracted for an eighth consecutive month as domestic demand softened and overseas orders weakened under U.S. tariff pressure.
Japan recorded a fifth straight month of contraction—though at the mildest pace since August—while South Korea posted another PMI decline as demand faltered and export strength faded.
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