Bernstein has outlined a new forecast for copper prices in 2026, projecting an average of around $11,500 per tonne in the first quarter of the year before prices ease back to roughly $10,000 per tonne in the third and fourth quarters as current market momentum begins to cool.
In its analysis, Bernstein notes that copper has recently surged to record levels above $13,000 per tonne. The rally has been fuelled by a combination of supply-side disruptions, including geotechnical issues, alongside man-made factors such as arbitrage-driven trading activity and labour strikes. On Wednesday morning, copper was trading at about $13,238 per tonne.
The firm said today’s elevated pricing reflects the strong structural support provided by global electrification trends, which continue to underpin copper’s long-term value. At the same time, speculative positioning has helped keep prices stretched at unusually high levels.
Looking ahead, Bernstein expects prices to come under pressure as demand growth moderates and substitution effects increase. The analysts also flagged the possibility that weaker electric vehicle sales could weigh on sentiment in the second half of 2026, contributing to a gradual pullback in prices.
The research group cautioned that adverse macroeconomic news flow could accelerate any correction. In particular, negative developments linked to artificial intelligence or electric vehicles could prompt a swift reversal of speculative inflows into copper, leading to sharp price adjustments.
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