Author: Fiona Craig

  • Markets Brace for Fed Verdict and Earnings Deluge as Volatility Builds: Dow Jones, S&P, Nasdaq, Wall Street Futures

    Markets Brace for Fed Verdict and Earnings Deluge as Volatility Builds: Dow Jones, S&P, Nasdaq, Wall Street Futures

    U.S. stock futures edged higher early Wednesday as investors positioned ahead of a pivotal session dominated by the Federal Reserve’s interest-rate decision and a heavy stream of corporate earnings. The Fed is widely expected to hold rates steady, while results from several mega-cap technology companies are due after the U.S. market close. Elsewhere, gold pushed to another record high and reports said China has approved initial purchases of Nvidia’s H200 artificial intelligence chips.

    U.S. futures point higher

    Futures tied to the main U.S. equity benchmarks traded modestly in the green, reflecting cautious optimism before the day’s catalysts.

    At 02:49 ET, Dow futures were up 37 points, or 0.1%, S&P 500 futures rose 28 points, or 0.4%, and Nasdaq 100 futures jumped 249 points, or 1.0%.

    Wall Street finished Tuesday’s session mixed as investors weighed a large batch of earnings reports. Shares of UnitedHealth (NYSE:UNH) slid after the insurer flagged lower expected revenue in 2026 following a federal proposal that disappointed expectations for Medicare Advantage premium increases. The weakness spilled over into the broader healthcare sector, with CVS Health (NYSE:CVS) and Humana (NYSE:HUM) posting double-digit declines.

    The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed down 0.8%, while relative strength in technology and automotive stocks helped buoy the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite.

    Beyond earnings, markets also kept an eye on the risk of a partial U.S. government shutdown amid political tensions, as well as renewed tariff threats from President Donald Trump. Adding to concerns, U.S. consumer confidence fell in January to its lowest level in 12 years, according to the Conference Board, underscoring household unease despite a resilient economy.

    Fed decision takes center stage

    Against this backdrop, the Federal Reserve is expected to leave interest rates unchanged at the conclusion of its meeting later today.

    After cutting rates last year to support a cooling labor market—bringing borrowing costs into a 3.5% to 3.75% range—the central bank now appears in wait-and-see mode. With inflation still above the Fed’s 2% target and layoffs remaining limited, policymakers are seen holding steady for now.

    Attention will instead turn to Chair Jerome Powell’s comments for clues on the timing of future rate cuts, especially after December’s meeting highlighted deep divisions among officials. Markets currently do not expect the next rate reduction until June.

    Investors are also closely watching developments around the Fed’s leadership. Powell’s term as chair ends in May, and President Trump has signaled he will soon name a successor, raising questions about the future direction and independence of U.S. monetary policy.

    Earnings season accelerates

    The flow of corporate results is set to intensify, with particular focus on major technology names.

    After the closing bell, Meta Platforms (NASDAQ:META), Microsoft (NASDAQ:MSFT) and Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) are scheduled to report, with their outlooks likely to offer fresh insight into the durability of the artificial intelligence investment boom that has powered equity markets.

    Tech giants continue to pour capital into AI infrastructure, boosting demand for advanced semiconductors and data centers. Supporting expectations that this trend could persist into 2026, Europe’s largest listed company, ASML (NASDAQ:ASML), reported stronger-than-expected fourth-quarter bookings and signaled further order growth.

    Earlier in the day, investors will also digest earnings from AT&T (NYSE:T), Starbucks (NASDAQ:SBUX) and GE Vernova (NYSE:GEV).

    Gold hits fresh highs

    Gold prices climbed above $5,200 an ounce to a new all-time high, driven by strong safe-haven demand and continued weakness in the U.S. dollar.

    Other precious metals remained elevated, with silver and platinum hovering near recent peaks. Heightened uncertainty ahead of the Fed decision and broader geopolitical tensions have helped sustain demand for defensive assets.

    The metal is up around 20% so far in 2026, building on strong gains last year as investors seek protection amid policy and geopolitical risks.

    China clears Nvidia H200 chip purchases – reports

    China has approved the purchase of an initial batch of Nvidia’s (NASDAQ:NVDA) H200 AI chips, according to media reports.

    Authorities have reportedly given the green light to leading technology groups including ByteDance, Alibaba and Tencent to buy more than 400,000 H200 chips in total, as Beijing seeks to advance its position in the global AI race while managing domestic semiconductor priorities.

    The first approvals could be worth around $10 billion, with additional companies still awaiting authorization. Nvidia shares rose more than 1% in extended trading following the reports.

  • European Shares Ease Ahead of Fed Call as ASML Kicks Off Heavy Earnings Day: DAX, CAC, FTSE100

    European Shares Ease Ahead of Fed Call as ASML Kicks Off Heavy Earnings Day: DAX, CAC, FTSE100

    European equities drifted modestly lower on Wednesday as investors worked through a busy slate of corporate results while staying cautious ahead of the U.S. Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision later in the day.

    By 08:02 GMT, Germany’s DAX was down 0.1% and France’s CAC 40 had slipped 0.5%, while the UK’s FTSE 100 was broadly flat.

    Fed decision keeps investors on edge

    Markets across Europe were subdued as attention turned to the Federal Reserve, even after a strong overnight session on Wall Street saw the S&P 500 reach fresh record highs, supported by gains in technology and AI-linked stocks ahead of major U.S. earnings.

    The Fed is widely expected to leave interest rates unchanged on Wednesday, shifting the spotlight to comments from Chair Jerome Powell for signals on when rate cuts could begin later this year. Powell’s term expires in May, and U.S. President Donald Trump said on Tuesday that he will soon announce his choice for the next Fed chair.

    Trump has repeatedly urged Powell to cut rates more aggressively, criticising the pace of monetary easing. This has raised concerns among investors that a leadership change could weaken the central bank’s independence.

    German consumer confidence improves

    On the macro front, sentiment among German consumers showed signs of recovery. The GfK forward-looking consumer confidence index rose to -24.1 in February from -26.9 the previous month, comfortably ahead of forecasts for a smaller improvement to -26.0.

    The European Central Bank meets next week and is expected to keep interest rates unchanged at 2% for a fifth straight meeting, with euro zone inflation remaining subdued and economic activity proving more resilient than previously feared. However, Austrian central bank governor Martin Kocher told the Financial Times that further appreciation of the euro could eventually force the ECB to consider another rate cut.

    The single currency climbed to a more than four-year high on Tuesday, as the dollar weakened amid worries over U.S. policy direction and ongoing geopolitical tensions.

    ASML in focus as earnings season accelerates

    Corporate earnings were firmly in the spotlight, with reporting season moving into high gear. ASML (EU:ASML) drew particular attention after the Dutch semiconductor equipment maker topped fourth-quarter expectations and delivered optimistic guidance for 2026, citing a sharp increase in orders and continued strong demand for advanced AI-related chips.

    Volvo (BIT:1VOLVB) posted a smaller-than-expected drop in fourth-quarter operating profit, though the Swedish truckmaker cut its total annual dividend by more than the market had anticipated.

    Swiss contract drug manufacturer Lonza (TG:LO3) forecast 2026 sales growth of 11%–12% at constant exchange rates, with core EBITDA margins expected to expand beyond 32%, signalling solid momentum despite currency headwinds.

    Germany’s Wacker Chemie (TG:WCH) reported fourth-quarter earnings below expectations and offered limited detail on its €300 million cost-reduction programme.

    Late on Tuesday, LVMH (EU:MC) exceeded fourth-quarter sales forecasts, lifting hopes of a broader recovery in the luxury sector, even as margin pressures from trade tensions, a weaker dollar and elevated gold prices persisted.

    In the U.S., attention later turns to results from major technology names, with Meta Platforms (NASDAQ:META), Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) and Microsoft (NASDAQ:MSFT) all set to report after the Wall Street close.

    Oil steadies as U.S. storm disrupts supply

    Oil prices were little changed on Wednesday after recent gains, as markets assessed the impact of a severe winter storm in the United States.

    Brent crude slipped 0.1% to $66.50 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate edged up 0.1% to $62.45. Both benchmarks jumped around 3% on Tuesday, ending last week at their highest levels since January 14.

    Estimates suggest the storm knocked out as much as 2 million barrels per day of U.S. production — roughly 15% of national output — after disrupting energy infrastructure and power networks.

  • LVMH Shares Slide as Arnault Adopts Guarded View on 2026

    LVMH Shares Slide as Arnault Adopts Guarded View on 2026

    LVMH (EU:MC) reported a decline in annual revenue, highlighting how ongoing global economic headwinds and geopolitical tensions continue to weigh on the luxury sector.

    The update triggered a market sell-off. LVMH’s ADRs slipped 1.6% on Tuesday, while the group’s shares in Paris fell around 8% shortly after the market opened on Wednesday.

    During the analyst call, chairman and chief executive Bernard Arnault struck a cautious tone on the outlook for 2026.

    “With the continuing geopolitical crises, with economic uncertainty and the policies of certain states, including ours, to tax us to the maximum and create unemployment – I think there is reason to be a little cautious,” he told analysts.

    For 2025, the group reported revenue of €80.8 billion, down 5% year on year, while organic revenue declined by 1%. Trading conditions weakened notably in Europe during the second half of the year. In contrast, the United States returned to growth, supported by stronger domestic demand. Japan fell back from an exceptionally strong prior year boosted by tourism, while performance across the rest of Asia showed clear improvement.

    Results in the final quarter pointed to signs of stabilisation. Fourth-quarter organic revenue increased 1% to €22.7 billion, and the second half of the year also delivered 1% organic growth, reflecting improving trends across all business divisions.

    Kepler Cheuvreux analyst Charles-Louis Scotti described the figures as “a reassuring set of 2025 results, with unchanged like-for-like (LFL) sales trends in Q4 despite c.400bps tougher YOY comparisons.”

    “We continue to see LVMH as a good proxy on the expected sector recovery and reiterate our Buy rating,” he added.

    Profit from recurring operations declined 9% to €17.8 billion in 2025, partly due to adverse currency movements. Net profit amounted to €10.9 billion, while operating free cash flow increased 8% to €11.3 billion.

    Fashion and Leather Goods, the group’s largest division, posted an 8% fall in reported revenue, although LVMH said underlying local demand remained resilient. Wines and Spirits was affected by softer cognac demand, while Selective Retailing delivered a strong performance.

    Arnault said the group demonstrated “solidity” despite a disrupted environment and stressed its continued focus on investing in brand desirability and innovation. While acknowledging uncertainty heading into 2026, LVMH said it remains committed to strengthening its leadership position in global luxury.

    Bernstein analyst Luca Solca noted that “the upside from cost and capital controls will be more limited” in 2026, given that “a lot of work has been done already.”

    “What would push the business and the share price forward is a global demand recovery and a return to top-line growth. This started in 2H25, albeit incrementally,” he added.

    “If so, and if our base case scenario is correct, LVMH can be a compelling investment,” Solca continued.

  • British Land Agrees £150m Takeover of Life Science REIT

    British Land Agrees £150m Takeover of Life Science REIT

    British Land (LSE:BLND) has announced an agreement to acquire Life Science REIT (LSE:LABS) in a transaction valuing the specialist property trust at £150 million. The offer represents a 21% premium to LABS’ closing share price of 35.4 pence.

    Under the terms of the deal, Life Science REIT shareholders will receive 42.8 pence per share, comprising 14.1 pence in cash and 0.07 new British Land shares. The consideration implies a 15% premium to LABS’ three-month volume-weighted average price of 37.3 pence, while also reflecting a 26% discount to its EPRA Net Tangible Assets of 57.7 pence as at 31 December.

    The board of Life Science REIT has unanimously recommended the offer, and British Land has already secured irrevocable undertakings from shareholders representing 31.1% of the issued share capital. On completion, LABS investors are expected to hold around 2.4% of the enlarged British Land group and should be eligible to receive British Land’s final dividend for FY26.

    Life Science REIT’s property portfolio is valued at £332.6 million and generates annual rent of £26.5 million. The assets are concentrated across five properties, including a £27 million development at Oxford Technology Park that has been affected by delays linked to costly design changes. The scheme is being reconfigured from large-format units into smaller spaces, which have so far seen weaker leasing demand.

    In addition, a property at Cambourne is being reclassified to secondary business park status. Both the Oxford Technology Park and Cambourne assets are located roughly 10 miles from the centres of Oxford and Cambridge respectively, factors that have weighed on recent valuations.

  • ASML Q4 Orders Surge Past Forecasts on AI-Led Spending, 1,700 Job Cuts Announced

    ASML (EU:ASML), the world’s largest supplier of semiconductor manufacturing equipment, reported a sharp rebound in fourth-quarter orders, far exceeding market expectations as customers stepped up investment in artificial intelligence-related chip capacity.

    The company also announced plans to reduce its workforce by around 1,700 roles, equivalent to 3.8% of total staff. The cuts will be concentrated mainly in the Netherlands and the United States and will largely affect management positions.

    Fourth-quarter orders — a key barometer for demand across the chipmaking industry — climbed to €13.2 billion, up from €5.4 billion in the previous quarter. The figure came in well ahead of the €6.32 billion consensus forecast compiled by Visible Alpha.

    “In recent months, many of our clients have shared a significantly more positive assessment of the medium-term market situation, based primarily on stronger expectations regarding the sustainability of AI-related demand,” said Christophe Fouquet, CEO of ASML.

    The surge in orders reflects accelerating capital expenditure by ASML’s customers as they expand capacity for AI-focused logic and memory chips. Demand is being driven by hyperscale cloud providers such as Microsoft, Amazon and Google, which continue to invest heavily in infrastructure to support AI workloads.

    Alongside the strong order intake, the Dutch group upgraded its medium-term outlook. ASML now expects annual sales in 2026 to range between €34 billion and €39 billion, compared with analysts’ expectations of around €35 billion, according to LSEG data. Previously, the company had guided for sales to be broadly flat or slightly higher than 2025 levels, when revenue reached €32.7 billion.

    The updated guidance underscores ASML’s growing exposure to AI-driven semiconductor investment, even as it moves to streamline its cost base through targeted workforce reductions.

  • Richmond Hill Resources Raises £600,000 and Advances Martello Gold Acquisition

    Richmond Hill Resources Raises £600,000 and Advances Martello Gold Acquisition

    Richmond Hill Resources (LSE:RHR) has raised £600,000 in gross proceeds through a placing of new shares, while confirming further progress on the acquisition of the Martello Gold Project in Ontario, Canada. The funding provides additional working capital and supports the company’s plans to move the recently acquired asset towards a maiden drilling programme.

    The fundraising comprised the placing of 23,077,000 new ordinary shares at 2.6 pence per share, arranged through broker Clear Capital Limited. The issue price represents a 6% premium to the company’s mid-market closing price on 27 January 2026. Richmond Hill said the net proceeds will be used for general working capital and to advance exploration activities at Martello. The company is also considering the introduction of a future facility that would allow retail investors to participate in subsequent equity fundraisings, with further details to be announced if such a structure is put in place.

    Alongside the placing, Richmond Hill confirmed it has entered into a sale and purchase agreement to acquire the Martello Gold Project, on the same commercial terms announced in December. The vendor has changed from Olerud Ltd to Ulvestone Ltd, which has assumed all rights and obligations under the agreement. Both entities are controlled by James Ikin, a substantial shareholder in Richmond Hill. The company reiterated that historic data compilation and digitisation at Martello are well advanced and nearing completion, with the aim of defining priority drill targets ahead of an initial drilling campaign.

    As part of the transaction, Richmond Hill will shortly make a £100,000 cash payment to the vendor and has issued 38,750,000 new shares at 2 pence per share to satisfy the first tranche of the equity consideration. In addition, the company has issued 1,300,000 shares at the same price to settle outstanding liabilities with a creditor.

    Given the vendor’s ownership structure, the acquisition constitutes a related party transaction under the AIM Rules. The board, which is independent of the transaction, said it considers the terms to be fair and reasonable following consultation with its nominated adviser.

    Application has been made for the admission of 63,127,000 new ordinary shares to trading on AIM, with admission expected on or around 11 February 2026. Following admission, Richmond Hill will have 657,337,949 ordinary shares in issue.

    Hamish Harris, CEO of Richmond Hill, commented: “The Board is delighted to have successfully raised funds at a premium to the prevailing share price on 27 January 2026. With gold trading above $5,000 per ounce at the time of this announcement and Richmond Hill is poised to commence drilling in the near term, we are excited about the significant momentum the Company has achieved in such a short period since listing. This fundraise positions us strongly to unlock value for shareholders as we advance our exploration programme.”

  • Card Factory Reaffirms Profit Outlook as Acquisitions Compensate for Flat UK Store Trading

    Card Factory Reaffirms Profit Outlook as Acquisitions Compensate for Flat UK Store Trading

    Card Factory (LSE:CARD) said trading for the eleven months to 31 December 2025 was in line with its revised expectations, with group revenue rising 7.3% year on year to £541.6 million. Growth was driven largely by contributions from acquired businesses and the ongoing integration of Funky Pigeon, which helped offset flat like-for-like sales across the UK store estate amid subdued high-street footfall.

    Performance over the key Christmas period met management expectations despite a challenging consumer environment. Total revenue across November and December increased 4.3%, although store like-for-like sales declined 1.2%. Cost inflation was partially mitigated through the company’s ‘Simplify and Scale’ efficiency programme, supporting confidence in delivering adjusted profit before tax of between £55 million and £60 million for FY26. The group also reiterated its commitment to a progressive dividend policy and confirmed the completion of a £5 million share buyback to support employee share schemes.

    From an investment perspective, Card Factory benefits from solid underlying financial performance and an attractive valuation profile, with a low earnings multiple and a high dividend yield. These positives are counterbalanced by very weak technical indicators, with the share price trading well below major moving averages and momentum signals remaining firmly bearish, suggesting near-term caution.

    More about Card Factory

    Card Factory plc is the UK’s leading specialist retailer of greeting cards, gifts and celebration products, operating an extensive high-street store network alongside growing digital and international operations. The group has expanded through partnerships and acquisitions, including the online brand Funky Pigeon and businesses in North America and the Republic of Ireland, while maintaining a value-focused proposition aimed at budget-conscious consumers.

  • Fresnillo Exceeds 2025 Gold Guidance but Signals Lower Output in the Near Term

    Fresnillo Exceeds 2025 Gold Guidance but Signals Lower Output in the Near Term

    Fresnillo (LSE:FRES) delivered a solid operational performance in 2025, with attributable gold production of 600.3 thousand ounces, exceeding full-year guidance despite a 5% decline compared with the prior year. Attributable silver production, including volumes from the now-concluded Silverstream, fell 13.5% year on year to 48.7 million ounces, broadly in line with guidance.

    Fourth-quarter results were mixed. Silver, lead and zinc output increased compared with the previous quarter, but gold and silver volumes declined sharply year on year. The performance reflected lower grades and reduced ore throughput at several key operations, including Herradura, Saucito, Ciénega and San Julián. Additional factors included the cessation of mining at San Julián DOB and the discontinuation of zinc concentrate production at Ciénega.

    Looking ahead, the company’s 2026 guidance points to lower expected silver and gold output than previously indicated. Management attributed this to mine plan adjustments at Fresnillo, lower grades and throughput at Ciénega, and delays to infrastructure development at Saucito. Despite the near-term reduction, Fresnillo indicated that production is expected to recover from 2027 onwards as new high-grade zones and development projects come on stream, supporting a more positive medium-term outlook.

    From an investment perspective, Fresnillo’s outlook is underpinned by strong financial performance, including improved margins, low leverage and significantly stronger cash flow, alongside a supportive tone from the latest earnings update. These strengths are balanced by a technically overbought share price and a demanding valuation, with a relatively high P/E ratio reducing near-term margin of safety.

    More about Fresnillo

    Fresnillo plc is a London-listed precious metals mining company primarily focused on silver and gold production from operations in Mexico. The group also produces lead and zinc as by-products and is one of the world’s largest primary silver producers. Its strategy emphasises disciplined mine planning, operational efficiency and safety, supported by exposure to a favourable precious metals price environment.

  • Atalaya Mining Raises £130m to Fast-Track Copper Growth Pipeline in Spain

    Atalaya Mining Raises £130m to Fast-Track Copper Growth Pipeline in Spain

    Atalaya Mining (LSE:ATYM) has raised £130 million in gross proceeds through an equity fundraise that was significantly oversubscribed. The transaction comprised a placing of 12.73 million new shares with institutional investors and existing shareholders, alongside a retail offer of 270,000 shares, all priced at £10.00 per share. The new equity represents around 9.2% of the company’s issued share capital prior to the fundraise and includes participation from a non-executive director, further broadening Atalaya’s institutional shareholder base.

    The proceeds will be used to accelerate development across Atalaya’s copper growth projects in Spain, strengthen the balance sheet and enhance financial flexibility, particularly in relation to advancing the Proyecto Touro development. Management said the capital raise positions the company to push forward its broader Riotinto District pipeline while taking advantage of supportive copper market conditions. The newly issued shares are expected to begin trading on the London Stock Exchange on 2 February 2026.

    From an outlook perspective, Atalaya is supported by strong profitability, improving free cash flow generation and relatively low leverage, providing a solid financial foundation for executing its growth strategy. These strengths are balanced by technical indicators that suggest the shares are currently overbought, increasing the risk of near-term volatility. Valuation metrics are considered moderate, with the investment case also reflecting a relatively low dividend yield.

    More about Atalaya Mining

    Atalaya Mining Copper, S.A. is a European copper producer that owns and operates the Proyecto Riotinto mining complex in southwest Spain, including the Cerro Colorado open pit mine and a 15 million tonne per annum processing plant that serves as a regional hub. Listed on the London Stock Exchange’s Main Market and a member of the FTSE 250, the company is expanding its asset base through a pipeline of development projects, including Proyecto Masa Valverde, Proyecto Riotinto East, the Proyecto Touro brownfield copper project in northwest Spain and Proyecto Ossa Morena.

  • Hargreaves Services Reports Profit Surge, Unveils £15m Cash Return and CEO Succession Plan

    Hargreaves Services Reports Profit Surge, Unveils £15m Cash Return and CEO Succession Plan

    Hargreaves Services (LSE:HSP) delivered a strong first-half performance for the six months ended 30 November 2025, with revenue rising 46.1% to £183.1 million and profit before tax jumping 169.8% to £14.3 million. The result was driven primarily by significant growth in the Services division, which benefited from increased activity on major infrastructure projects, alongside solid contributions from Hargreaves Land and the HRMS joint venture.

    The group’s cash position strengthened materially over the period, more than doubling to £37.3 million. This improvement was supported by the completion of the first tranche sale of renewable energy land assets for £8.8 million. On the back of its stronger balance sheet, the board announced plans to return up to £15 million of cash to shareholders through a tender offer at a premium to the current share price. In addition, the interim dividend was increased by 5.4%. The company also confirmed a planned leadership transition, with long-serving chief executive Gordon Banham set to step down in July 2026 and current chief operating officer Simon Hicks named as his successor.

    Operational visibility remains strong. Around 90% of Services division revenue for the current financial year is already contracted, while the Land and HRMS businesses also offer good earnings visibility. As a result, management now expects the Services division to outperform previous market forecasts and anticipates full-year profit before tax and EBITDA to come in around 4% ahead of expectations, signalling improving earnings momentum and a more proactive approach to capital returns.

    From an investment standpoint, Hargreaves Services is supported by robust financial performance, strong revenue growth and healthy cash generation. The valuation appears attractive, with a reasonable earnings multiple and a solid dividend yield, while recent corporate actions further reinforce confidence in the group’s strategic direction. These positives are balanced by more cautious share price technical signals, which currently point to bearish trends.

    More about Hargreaves Services

    Hargreaves Services plc is a diversified UK-based group operating across environmental, infrastructure and property markets, with activities in the UK and South East Asia. The group is organised into three main segments: Services, which provides materials handling, mechanical and electrical contracting, logistics and large-scale earthworks for sectors such as clean energy, connectivity and environmental infrastructure; Hargreaves Land, focused on sustainable brownfield development and the realisation of renewable energy land assets; and HRMS, a German joint venture active in specialist commodity markets and the owner of DK Recycling und Roheisen, a recycler of steel waste materials.