Author: Fiona Craig

  • Europa Oil & Gas extends EG-08 farm-out deadline to 30 September

    Europa Oil & Gas extends EG-08 farm-out deadline to 30 September

    Europa Oil & Gas (LSE:EOG) has extended the longstop date for completing the farm-out of a 40% interest in the EG-08 production sharing contract offshore Equatorial Guinea to Fuhai.

    The deadline has been moved to 30 September 2026 by mutual agreement as Fuhai continues to seek Chinese outbound investment approval required for the transaction.

    According to Europa, the approval process has taken longer than expected following the introduction of new regulations in China.

    Chinese outbound investment approval remains pending

    The farm-out has already received approval from Equatorial Guinea’s Ministry for Mining and Hydrocarbons.

    In China, Fuhai’s Outbound Direct Investment application remains under consideration by the Beijing Municipal Development and Reform Commission. Europa said the commission has indicated that it expects approval to be granted in the near term.

    Completion of the transaction remains subject to the outstanding Chinese approval process.

    Barracuda-1 well targeted for early 2027

    Europa reiterated its intention to drill the Barracuda-1 exploration well on the EG-08 block at the earliest opportunity, with drilling currently targeted for early 2027.

    Europa Oil & Gas (Holdings) plc is an AIM-quoted exploration, development and production company with oil and gas assets in West Africa, the UK and Ireland.

    The group holds a 42.9% equity interest in Antler Global Limited, which operates the EG-08 production sharing contract offshore Equatorial Guinea alongside national oil company GEPetrol and farm-in partner Fuhai.

  • Finseta expects 2026 revenue of about £11 million following first-half decline

    Finseta expects 2026 revenue of about £11 million following first-half decline

    Finseta plc (LSE:FIN) said first-half 2026 revenue is expected to be approximately £5.4 million, compared with £5.9 million in the same period a year earlier, as macroeconomic conditions affected customer demand and extended sales cycles.

    Active customer numbers increased to 1,389 during the period. The company continued to shift its business towards business-to-business customers, with corporate accounts representing 74% of revenue.

    Finseta expects its gross margin for the first half to be approximately 66%. However, the change in customer mix, planned strategic investment, disruption related to conflict in Dubai and the withdrawal of a currency corridor contributed to an adjusted EBITDA loss for the period.

    The company now expects full-year 2026 revenue of approximately £11 million.

    Dubai revenue increases as regional disruption affects activity

    Finseta reported that revenue from its Dubai operations increased 243% year on year. However, the company said regional conflict constrained activity during the period, resulting in the operation making a lower contribution than internally forecast.

    Management said it is maintaining cost discipline as the group continues its strategic transition.

    Finseta expects the proportion of revenue generated from corporate customers to increase further during the second half, which management expects to result in an additional improvement in gross margin.

    The company is also seeking to replace the provider of a withdrawn currency corridor and expects to restore the affected capabilities through a new provider during the fourth quarter.

    Finseta continues transition towards corporate customers

    Finseta said its strategic transition is taking longer than originally planned as it increases its focus on corporate customers.

    The London-headquartered company provides foreign exchange and payment services, including multi-currency accounts and cross-border payment solutions for businesses and individuals.

    Finseta operates a proprietary technology platform and supports payments in more than 150 currencies across over 165 countries. The company operates under regulatory oversight in the UK, Canada and Dubai.

  • Oxford Metrics acquires Captive Devices to expand Vicon facial capture capabilities

    Oxford Metrics acquires Captive Devices to expand Vicon facial capture capabilities

    Oxford Metrics (LSE:OMG) has acquired Manchester-based Captive Devices, a developer of professional head-mounted camera systems and software for markerless facial performance capture.

    The transaction is valued at up to £750,000 and will be funded through a combination of existing resources and new shares. Oxford Metrics will acquire the entire share capital of Captive Devices without taking on additional debt.

    As part of the transaction, the founding team of Captive Devices will join Oxford Metrics’ Vicon business.

    Acquisition adds facial capture technology to Vicon platform

    Captive Devices develops technology used for facial performance capture in visual effects, gaming and virtual production. Its systems include integration with Unreal Engine.

    The acquisition expands Vicon’s motion capture offering beyond body tracking by adding integrated facial capture capabilities alongside its existing marker-based, markerless and hybrid technologies.

    Oxford Metrics plans to make Captive Devices’ technology available through Vicon’s international sales channels and existing customer relationships. The company aims to broaden the market for its products, increase sales of facial capture systems and continue developing its end-to-end capture platform.

    Oxford Metrics serves customers in more than 70 countries

    Oxford Metrics provides smart sensing and measurement technologies across the life sciences, entertainment, engineering and manufacturing markets.

    Through its Vicon motion capture division and Industrial Vision and Metrology Systems business, the group supplies motion measurement and machine vision solutions to thousands of customers across more than 70 countries.

  • Croma Security Solutions acquires London locksmith William Channon in £1 million deal

    Croma Security Solutions acquires London locksmith William Channon in £1 million deal

    Croma Security Solutions Group (LSE:CSSG) has acquired A. Butler & Sons, which trades as William Channon, in a cash transaction estimated at £1 million and funded from the group’s existing resources.

    The acquisition gives Croma a permanent presence in London and adds William Channon’s commercial locksmith and access control operations to its existing security services network.

    William Channon recorded £1.1 million turnover in 2025

    Based in Holborn and founded in 1917, William Channon serves commercial customers including museums and universities.

    The business generated unaudited turnover of £1.1 million in 2025 and recorded a small pre-tax loss. Its net assets were broadly in line with the estimated £1 million purchase price.

    William Channon’s managing director will remain involved for a short transition period on a consultancy basis.

    Croma plans to restructure the acquired business and said it sees opportunities for cost synergies and for offering additional security services to William Channon’s existing and larger corporate customers.

    Acquisition expands Croma’s London operations

    The transaction forms part of Croma’s acquisition strategy following the sale of its man guarding business in 2023. The company has been acquiring and integrating locksmith businesses as it develops a national network of security centres.

    The William Channon acquisition provides Croma with a base in the London market while adding an established commercial customer portfolio to the group.

    Croma Security Solutions Group provides locksmith, fire and security services to domestic and commercial customers. The AIM-listed company is headquartered in Southampton and operates security centres serving sectors including health, education, leisure, entertainment and utilities.

  • Bitcoin could climb to $300,000 by 2029, Bernstein analyst says

    Bitcoin could climb to $300,000 by 2029, Bernstein analyst says

    Bitcoin (COIN:BTCUSD) could reach $300,000 by the end of 2029 as mounting sovereign debt and the prospect of currency debasement increase the appeal of scarce assets, according to Bernstein analyst Gautam Chhugani.

    The forecast assumes Bitcoin broadly maintains the four-year market cycle that has characterised its historical price movements. Before reaching the projected 2029 peak, Bernstein expects the cryptocurrency to recover to a fresh record of $150,000 by mid-2027.

    “Following our price-to-marginal cost framework, we would expect the next market peak to be $300K by CY2029E and the market recovering to new all-time high of $150,000 by mid-2027E,” Chhugani wrote in a note to clients.

    Higher borrowing costs shape Bernstein’s Bitcoin outlook

    A central part of Bernstein’s argument is that the prolonged period of falling interest rates that characterised the previous 40 years has ended.

    With sovereign debt already at unprecedented levels, governments now face the prospect of substantially higher debt-servicing costs. Bernstein believes rising yields can create a feedback loop in which larger interest expenses widen budget deficits, leading governments to issue additional debt.

    “Faced with the choice between fiscal stress and currency debasement, we believe the policymakers will ultimately favor the latter, as it is politically less disruptive,” the firm said.

    If policymakers ultimately tolerate greater currency debasement to manage fiscal pressures, Bernstein believes investors could increasingly seek assets with structurally limited supply.

    Bernstein sees Bitcoin leading the debasement trade

    Bitcoin stands out as the leading hard asset within this thesis, according to the firm.

    Bernstein estimates that approximately 60% of Bitcoin is held by investors who have demonstrated limited sensitivity to price fluctuations, maintaining their positions even through drawdowns exceeding 50%.

    That relatively stable ownership base is being accompanied by expanding access for institutional and retail investors, potentially providing additional sources of demand during future market cycles.

    Bernstein believes this combination of limited supply, established long-term holders and broader investor access supports its longer-term price projections.

    Strategy target lowered despite Outperform rating

    Alongside its Bitcoin forecast, Bernstein lowered its price target for Strategy (NASDAQ: MSTR) to $350 from $450.

    The firm nevertheless maintained its Outperform rating, noting that Strategy remains the largest corporate Bitcoin holder globally.

    The company owns approximately 4% of the world’s Bitcoin supply, maintaining significant exposure to future movements in the cryptocurrency’s price.

  • Permian natural gas enters new infrastructure growth phase, Citi says

    Permian natural gas enters new infrastructure growth phase, Citi says

    The Permian Basin is entering a multi-year period of natural gas infrastructure expansion that could address longstanding transportation constraints while supporting continued production growth, according to Citi.

    Unlike previous investment cycles, the bank believes the latest wave of infrastructure spending is being underpinned by structural demand growth. Expanding U.S. LNG exports and rising power requirements from AI data centers are encouraging companies to commit to new capacity earlier and at greater scale.

    Citi expects these trends to eventually make the Permian the largest natural gas-producing basin in the U.S., complementing its existing position as the country’s leading source of crude oil.

    Pipeline expansion could improve Waha pricing

    Four recently announced infrastructure projects represent an inflection point for the Permian gas market, according to Citi.

    Combined with capacity additions already underway and the expected acceleration in U.S. LNG exports, the new projects could help narrow Waha Hub price differentials and improve the economics of oil-focused drilling through 2030.

    Permian natural gas production expanded substantially over recent years, rising from 17.2 billion cubic feet per day in 2021 to an estimated 27.6 bcf/d in 2025.

    Pipeline capacity did not increase quickly enough to absorb that additional output, contributing to pricing disruptions at Waha during 2024 and 2025. The imbalance became even more pronounced during the first half of 2026.

    AI electricity demand adds another source of gas consumption

    Growing LNG exports are expected to provide an increasingly important source of demand for U.S. natural gas through the remainder of the decade.

    Domestic electricity consumption could also play a larger role. The U.S. Energy Information Administration’s August 2026 Short-Term Energy Outlook forecasts that natural gas consumption by the power sector will reach a record 46.1 bcf/d during summer 2027.

    That would be approximately 6% above consumption levels during the summers of both 2025 and 2026.

    The trend is particularly significant in Texas. Natural gas-fired generation within ERCOT is projected to increase by roughly 22% between summer 2025 and summer 2027, with data center-related electricity demand accounting for much of the expected growth.

    Texas regulators recently paused new interconnection approvals, however, leading the EIA to lower its 2027 projection.

    Producers look to secure long-term takeaway capacity

    Citi expects exploration and production companies operating in the Permian to take a more active role in securing access to pipeline infrastructure.

    Strategies could include taking equity stakes in pipelines and entering long-term agreements that guarantee transportation capacity.

    The bank pointed to Devon Energy and Diamondback Energy (NASDAQ:FANG) through Solitude, along with Exxon Mobil’s relationship with Targa Resources, as examples of producers seeking greater control over their gas transportation requirements.

    Such arrangements could become increasingly important as associated gas production rises alongside continued oil drilling.

    Storage data suggests tighter gas market

    Gas-focused exploration and production stocks have risen around 4.4% over the past month, even as forward natural gas strip prices have remained broadly unchanged and prompt-month prices continue to trade at depressed levels.

    Citi’s storage model provides another indication that underlying supply-and-demand conditions could be somewhat tighter than headline pricing suggests.

    Actual inventory additions have consistently undershot the bank’s forecasts over the past month, with the difference averaging approximately 1.6 bcf/d.

  • Global oil supply faces unprecedented conflict exposure six months into Iran war

    Global oil supply faces unprecedented conflict exposure six months into Iran war

    More than 43% of global oil supply originates from countries affected by conflict in 2026, according to Reuters calculations, illustrating the unusually high geopolitical exposure currently facing the energy market.

    The situation comes six months after U.S. and Israeli attacks on Iran set off what has developed into the largest recorded oil supply crisis, with uncertainty remaining over how long the disruption will continue.

    At the same time, the Russia-Ukraine war has reduced both production and refining activity, with neighbouring Kazakhstan also experiencing cuts during the year.

    Persistent instability in Libya and U.S. restrictions on Venezuelan oil exports introduced earlier in 2026 have placed additional pressure on available global supplies.

    Around 45 million barrels per day exposed to conflict

    Countries affected by these conflicts collectively produced approximately 45 million barrels per day in 2025, according to Reuters calculations based on International Energy Agency data.

    That volume represents more than 43% of worldwide supply, highlighting the extent to which current oil production is concentrated in regions facing geopolitical disruption.

    The situation has increased the importance of U.S. production to the global market. However, American oil supplies have not been entirely immune from disruption, with severe weather occasionally affecting output.

    The overall impact has also been moderated by the fact that the various supply interruptions experienced this year have not all occurred simultaneously.

    Gulf oil flows remain under pressure

    In the Gulf, producers have taken steps to maintain exports despite the disruption. Saudi Arabia has redirected oil towards the Red Sea, while other exporters have continued moving supplies through the Strait of Hormuz.

    Even with those measures, analysts estimate that the current disruption to Gulf oil flows amounts to roughly 5 million to 7 million barrels per day.

    The threat to major shipping routes remains significant. Attacks in the Red Sea and close to Egypt’s Suez Canal during July demonstrated how further escalation could affect important corridors for international oil and fuel shipments.

    The Gulf and Ukraine conflicts have also had a significant effect downstream, reducing global refining capacity by approximately one-tenth.

    Ukraine has repeatedly targeted Russia’s refining infrastructure, including facilities as far away as Omsk, around 2,700 kilometres (1,680 miles) from Ukrainian-held territory.

    Refining disruptions tighten fuel markets

    Russia is now dealing with fuel shortages at home and has banned gasoline and diesel exports, adding further tightness to international refined-product markets.

    Higher fuel prices have increasingly contributed to inflationary pressures, pushing up borrowing costs and helping drive U.S. government debt to a record $40 trillion.

    U.S. diesel prices have reached record highs despite domestic refiners operating at maximum capacity.

    The International Energy Agency has attempted to soften the impact of the supply crisis through record releases from emergency oil stockpiles.

    Most of those releases have now been completed. With global inventories continuing to decline, the market has less of an emergency cushion available if geopolitical disruptions intensify further.

  • JPMorgan sees equities moving higher as market leadership rotates

    JPMorgan sees equities moving higher as market leadership rotates

    JPMorgan expects equities to continue advancing into the end of the year, but believes the next stage of the rally will be characterised by changing market leadership rather than an indiscriminate rise across stocks.

    “In equities, we stay constructive into year-end, expecting a grind higher with rotation rather than a broad melt-up move,” strategist Fabio Bassi wrote.

    The recent rebound in semiconductor shares is viewed by the bank as a sign that risk appetite is recovering tactically. JPMorgan also believes the Federal Reserve’s willingness to remain patient should help limit volatility, leaving positioning and dispersion as important drivers of market performance.

    Semiconductors offer opportunities after repricing

    Quality Growth and hyperscalers remain among JPMorgan’s preferred equity exposures. The bank also sees semiconductors as increasingly attractive following the sector’s recent repricing.

    A favourable combination of continued disinflation and a Fed that keeps monetary policy unchanged could allow participation in the equity rally to expand, JPMorgan said.

    The bank is also monitoring developments in bond markets after a significant selloff in longer-dated debt led to renewed steepening of developed-market yield curves.

    JPMorgan said part of the move reflects supply-driven “crowding out,” with the substantial capital expenditure requirements of hyperscalers competing with sovereign governments for available capital. At the same time, growing confidence that AI spending can ultimately be monetised is improving expectations for real investment returns.

    Bond selloff does not point to policy error, JPMorgan says

    The increase in longer-term yields is not currently viewed by JPMorgan as a warning that monetary policy has become dangerously restrictive.

    “Higher long-end yields and steeper curves may reflect higher demand for capital and investment opportunities more than policy-error fears,” the bank wrote.

    JPMorgan’s central scenario assumes term premiums rise only modestly from current levels. Under those conditions, the bank does not expect higher long-term yields to become a trigger for widespread risk aversion.

    Fed debate likely to continue beyond Jackson Hole

    The US Treasury’s decision to increase buybacks of 10-year and 30-year debt also attracted JPMorgan’s attention. The bank said the larger purchases suggested policymakers were uncomfortable with the recent rise in long-term yields.

    JPMorgan does not expect Jackson Hole to resolve the debate over how the Fed will respond to changing economic conditions.

    For equities, the bank therefore continues to see a constructive backdrop, with further upside potentially coming through sector and style rotation rather than a broad market melt-up.

  • Needham says crypto recovery has ‘legs’ as selling pressure eases

    Needham says crypto recovery has ‘legs’ as selling pressure eases

    Needham & Company believes the digital asset recovery is showing signs of durability, prompting the firm to raise its crypto volume forecasts across the trading exchanges and platforms included in its coverage.

    “How sustainable is the crypto rebound? We believe it has legs,” analyst John Todaro wrote, pointing to three developments that could support further improvement in the market.

    Rotation from AI and commodities could benefit crypto

    One potential catalyst is a change in where retail investors are directing their capital.

    Needham said enthusiasm around artificial intelligence stocks has moderated as the sector faces increased regulatory pressure ahead of the midterm elections. Retail participation in commodities such as oil and metals has also cooled.

    With some competing trades attracting less attention, the firm believes crypto could once again stand out as a comparatively appealing destination for speculative capital.

    Record selling could reduce future supply pressure

    Needham’s second argument is that the market may already have absorbed a substantial amount of selling.

    In addition to outflows from ETFs and retail investors, public companies have reduced their bitcoin positions. Digital asset treasury businesses and bitcoin miners collectively sold a record 57,000 bitcoin, valued at roughly $4.2 billion, during the first six months of 2026.

    Total disposals by publicly traded bitcoin companies have reached approximately 69,500 bitcoin since the fourth quarter of 2025 began.

    If much of that selling has already occurred, Needham’s analysis suggests that one source of supply pressure could become less significant as the market attempts to recover.

    Crypto sentiment returns to 2022 levels

    Needham’s final argument comes from investor sentiment, which has fallen to levels last recorded during the previous major crypto downturn.

    The firm’s Crypto Euphoria Needham Diagram currently stands at 13, which Needham categorises as “max disinterest.” It is the lowest reading since the 2022 bear market, and the firm said such extreme levels have historically been associated with market bottoms.

    The indicator provided a contrasting signal in January 2025, reaching euphoric territory as meme coins surged. That period subsequently proved to be the peak of the cycle, according to Needham.

    There remains a potential source of bitcoin supply. Miners that are pivoting towards AI infrastructure still hold around 70,000 bitcoin on their balance sheets, although that has fallen considerably from a record level of approximately 100,000.

  • Leveraged single-stock ETF market faces shakeout as closures climb

    Leveraged single-stock ETF market faces shakeout as closures climb

    The rapid expansion of leveraged and inverse single-stock ETFs in the US is beginning to show signs of strain, as shrinking average fund sizes and a sharp rise in closures raise questions about how many products the market can sustain.

    Investor appetite for leveraged exposure has grown alongside a volatile bull market, encouraging issuers to introduce products designed to multiply the daily performance of individual stocks. The trend became particularly visible in June, when such products represented as much as half of all new ETF launches.

    The proliferation of funds, however, means more issuers are competing for a limited pool of speculative capital.

    “The market for these is saturated and there’s only so much money out there chasing this kind of product,” said Morningstar analyst Daniel Sotiroff. “A few firms at the top end up commanding the lion’s share of the money, and then there’s a long tail of also-rans who are struggling to attract assets.”

    Average leveraged ETF assets fall sharply

    Industry observers generally view $50 million to $100 million in assets during a fund’s first one or two years as a rough threshold for establishing a sustainable ETF. Products that fail to reach that scale may struggle to generate enough revenue for their sponsors to cover costs.

    Some funds have comfortably exceeded that level. The GraniteShares 2x Long NVDA Daily ETF has grown to approximately $3.9 billion, demonstrating the potential demand for leveraged exposure to heavily traded stocks.

    Across the broader category, however, assets are substantially smaller.

    Morningstar Direct figures show average assets in leveraged ETFs have fallen from $272.2 million at the end of 2024 to $63.3 million currently. Half of the funds have accumulated less than $7 million.

    Second wave moves further into speculative stocks

    The nature of new launches is also changing as issuers search for additional opportunities.

    Vident president Amrita Nandakumar believes the industry is nearing the end of a second expansion wave, with newer offerings increasingly “scraping the bottom of the barrel” by targeting smaller, more speculative and less established stocks.

    Despite those concerns, launches have continued at a record pace. Some 244 leveraged ETFs had debuted by mid-August, already exceeding the 229 introduced throughout 2025.

    “The first wave we saw a few years ago, and it involved creating leveraged ETFs tied to the names that you’d expect, big, widely watched and volatile companies” such as Nvidia, Tesla and Alphabet, Nandakumar said.

    The subsequent wave has expanded well beyond those established companies. New filings include leveraged products targeting smaller stocks, private companies that have yet to file for an IPO and even recently launched AI-themed ETFs.

    “You don’t necessarily see these products being listed on the biggest or most stable companies any longer,” said Elisabeth Kashner, director of global funds research at FactSet.

    Fund closures signal market consolidation

    The expanding range of products has been accompanied by a significant increase in closures. Morningstar said 63 leveraged single-stock funds have shut down in the US so far in 2026, compared with only three last year.

    Tradr ETFs has closed products linked to MongoDB and Datadog after both software companies were hit by selling pressure earlier in the year amid concerns about disruption from artificial intelligence.

    “We are consistently evaluating our suite of funds to gauge investor demand,” said Matt Markiewicz, head of product and capital markets at Tradr.

    GraniteShares also liquidated a 2x leveraged ETF tied to Lucid Group following a roughly 51% one-day collapse in the electric vehicle maker’s shares on July 14. Because a 2x product seeks to multiply the underlying stock’s daily move, a decline of that scale can effectively reduce its net asset value to zero.

    “If a fund is below break even or shows no real signs of adoption by the market, we’ll close it,” GraniteShares CEO Will Rhind said, without commenting specifically on the Lucid-linked product.

    Corgi Invest continues aggressive expansion

    Not every issuer is pulling back. Silicon Valley-based Corgi Invest has launched 127 leveraged or inverse single-stock products this year and intends to expand its range further.

    Founder Emily Yuan said the company does not intend to rapidly close funds simply because they are initially small.

    Corgi’s products currently hold an average of around $1 million each, but Yuan expects lower fees to help the firm compete for investor assets.

    “If you make good products, the money will come,” she said.