Author: Fiona Craig

Oil prices ticked up on Thursday after three days of losses, supported by worries over potential tighter sanctions on Russian crude, though persistent oversupply concerns limited the upside.

Brent crude futures added 20 cents, or 0.31%, to $65.55 a barrel at 06:31 GMT, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) climbed 20 cents, or 0.32%, to $61.98 a barrel. Some analysts attributed the gains to a technical rebound following a roughly 1% decline for both Brent and WTI in the previous session, with Brent closing at its lowest level since June 5 and WTI since May 30.

“Buying interest emerged as WTI neared its $60 support level, while heightened geopolitical risks and speculation about tighter sanctions on Russian crude also lent support,” said Hiroyuki Kikukawa, chief strategist at Nissan Securities Investment.

The Group of Seven (G7) finance ministers announced Wednesday that they would target parties continuing to purchase Russian oil or facilitating circumvention. In addition, the U.S. will provide Ukraine with intelligence to conduct long-range missile strikes on Russian energy infrastructure, according to Reuters, confirming a Wall Street Journal report. The move is expected to help Ukraine hit refineries, pipelines, and other energy assets to reduce Moscow’s revenue.

Chinese stockpiling, given its status as the world’s top crude importer, also supported prices, preventing a deeper decline.

However, concerns about the global economy amid the U.S. government shutdown, coupled with anticipated higher OPEC+ production, capped gains. U.S. President Donald Trump’s administration froze $26 billion for Democratic-leaning states, leveraging the shutdown to target political priorities.

On the supply side, sources familiar with OPEC+ discussions said the alliance could boost November production by up to 500,000 barrels per day—triple October’s increase—as Saudi Arabia aims to regain market share, even as demand in the U.S. and Asia begins to ease.

Data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) showed crude, gasoline, and distillate inventories rose last week amid softer refining activity and demand. Crude stockpiles increased by 1.8 million barrels to 416.5 million for the week ending September 26, above the 1-million-barrel rise expected in a Reuters poll.

This content is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or other professional advice. It should not be considered a recommendation to buy or sell any securities or financial instruments. All investments involve risk, including the potential loss of principal. Past performance is not indicative of future results. You should conduct your own research and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions.

Gold prices remained close to all-time highs in Asian trading on Thursday, supported by haven demand amid the ongoing U.S. government shutdown and mounting expectations of further Federal Reserve rate cuts.

The yellow metal reached a series of peaks this week following the partial U.S. government closure, which came after Congress failed to approve a new spending bill. The shutdown has delayed the release of crucial labor market data, leaving markets uncertain about the future path of interest rates.

Spot gold traded steady at $3,864.63 an ounce, while December gold futures dipped 0.2% to $3,889.65/oz by 00:45 ET (04:45 GMT). On Wednesday, spot gold briefly hit a record $3,895.33/oz.

US Government Shutdown Disrupts Data, Payrolls Delayed

The federal shutdown is expected to last at least three days, affecting multiple government operations. Lawmakers in the Senate have made little progress toward reaching an agreement on funding.

A prolonged closure could impact the U.S. economy, with potential disruptions in essential services, while President Donald Trump’s warnings to dismiss additional federal employees may add strain to the labor sector. Nonfarm payrolls, initially scheduled for release this Friday, are now likely to be postponed until next week.

Private payroll data released Wednesday indicated continued cooling in the labor market, reinforcing expectations of additional Fed rate cuts. This sentiment has pressured the dollar while supporting precious metals.

Other metals eased slightly on Thursday after strong gains earlier in the week. Spot platinum stabilized at $1,563.46/oz, with futures slipping 0.2% to $1,572.35/oz, after both metals reached more than a decade-high earlier.

Industrial metals also advanced, with LME copper up 0.4% at $10,422.05/ton and COMEX copper rising 0.4% to $4.9145/lb.

Markets Pricing in Fed Rate Cut

Market indicators suggest a 97% probability of a 25-basis-point Fed cut later in October, and a 3% chance of a larger 50-bps reduction, according to CME FedWatch. Recent economic data show a slowing U.S. economy, particularly in the labor market, following September’s 25-bps rate cut due to cooling job growth.

However, several Fed officials have cautioned that persistent inflation may limit further cuts. Data released last week showed the core PCE price index, the Fed’s preferred inflation measure, rose as expected in August, remaining above the 2% annual target.

This content is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or other professional advice. It should not be considered a recommendation to buy or sell any securities or financial instruments. All investments involve risk, including the potential loss of principal. Past performance is not indicative of future results. You should conduct your own research and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions.

The U.S. dollar weakened Thursday, extending a four-day decline as investors weighed the impact of the ongoing U.S. government shutdown and the prospect of further Federal Reserve easing.

At 04:15 ET (08:15 GMT), the Dollar Index, which measures the greenback against six major currencies, slipped 0.1% to 97.272, following a series of losses that pushed it to one-week lows over the past four sessions.

Prolonged Dollar Weakness Likely

The shutdown was triggered after a last-minute spending bill supported by Republicans failed to pass the Senate. With deep political divisions persisting, there is no clear resolution in sight, and the impasse could continue for an extended period.

Polymarket, a betting platform, currently suggests the highest probability for a shutdown lasting one to two weeks, though there is a 34% chance of a longer closure, with more than $1.2 million wagered.

As a result, Friday’s highly anticipated nonfarm payrolls report is unlikely to be released on schedule, heightening the focus on Wednesday’s weak ADP private payrolls data. According to ADP, U.S. private payrolls fell unexpectedly by 32,000 in September, following a downward revision of 3,000 in August.

This slowdown in the labor market increases the possibility of additional Fed rate cuts at the remaining policy meetings this year, following last month’s reduction. Fed funds futures now indicate a 99% likelihood of a 25-basis-point cut later this month, up from 96.2% the previous day, according to CME Group’s FedWatch tool.

The dollar received some support earlier after the U.S. Supreme Court confirmed it will hear arguments in January regarding President Donald Trump’s attempt to remove Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook, allowing her to remain in her post for now.

Euro Strengthens on Ukraine Support News

In Europe, EUR/USD climbed 0.2% to 1.1751, bolstered by a Wall Street Journal report that the U.S. will provide intelligence to Ukraine for long-range missile strikes on Russian energy infrastructure, potentially limiting Moscow’s revenue streams.

The latest eurozone unemployment data for August is expected to remain steady at 6.2%, while inflation edged up to 2.2% from 2% in the previous month, suggesting that the European Central Bank will likely maintain its policy stance.

GBP/USD rose 0.1% to 1.3497, with the pound benefiting from the dollar’s softness.

Yen and Other Currencies

USD/JPY remained mostly flat at 147.01 after four consecutive sessions of declines. ING analysts had noted before the shutdown that “the yen could emerge as an outperformer as a hedge to the U.S. entering a government shutdown.”

AUD/USD added 0.2% to 0.6625 after data showed Australian household spending edged up only slightly in August amid a decline in goods purchases.

USD/CNY traded near 7.1196 as markets anticipate a meeting in four weeks between Chinese President Xi Jinping and U.S. President Trump. Chinese markets are closed for the Golden Week holiday.

This content is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or other professional advice. It should not be considered a recommendation to buy or sell any securities or financial instruments. All investments involve risk, including the potential loss of principal. Past performance is not indicative of future results. You should conduct your own research and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions.

European shares climbed on Thursday, extending gains from the previous session amid growing expectations of further U.S. Federal Reserve monetary easing.

At 07:05 GMT, Germany’s DAX advanced 0.5%, France’s CAC 40 added 0.9%, and the U.K.’s FTSE 100 rose 0.2%.

Market Expectations for Fed Action

The three major European indices posted roughly 1% gains on Wednesday, ahead of a positive close on Wall Street. Investor sentiment was boosted by a weaker-than-expected ADP employment report, which reinforced expectations of quarter-point rate cuts at the remaining Federal Reserve policy meetings this year.

In the U.S., much of the government shut down Wednesday after an eleventh-hour Republican-backed spending bill failed to pass the Senate. This pause in operations will halt the release of official data for the immediate term, including Friday’s closely watched nonfarm payrolls report, focusing attention on the weak ADP numbers.

Eurozone Economic Data

Later in the session, a series of central bankers, including ECB Vice-President Luis De Guindos and ECB board member Patrick Montagner, are scheduled to speak at various forums. The eurozone unemployment rate for August is also due, expected to remain steady at 6.2%. Recent data showed eurozone inflation rising to 2.2% in September from 2.0% in August, supporting the European Central Bank’s decision to hold rates for a third consecutive meeting on 30 October.

Corporate News

Renault (EU:RNO) drew attention after Bloomberg reported discussions with China’s Chery Automobile regarding a potential partnership in South America. The talks reportedly cover Colombia and Argentina, where Chery could access Renault’s factories in exchange for capital investment and product design support.

Oil Markets

Oil prices edged higher Thursday, rebounding from near four-month lows amid renewed concerns over tighter sanctions on Russian crude. Brent futures rose 0.1% to $65.41 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude advanced 0.1% to $61.83 a barrel. Both benchmarks had fallen about 1% in the previous session, with Brent closing at its lowest since 5 June and WTI since 30 May.

The Group of Seven finance ministers said Wednesday they will increase pressure on Russia by targeting those continuing to buy Russian oil and entities facilitating circumvention. Additionally, the Wall Street Journal reported that the U.S. plans to provide Ukraine with intelligence for long-range missile strikes on Russian energy infrastructure, aiming to reduce Kremlin revenue from oil sales.

This content is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or other professional advice. It should not be considered a recommendation to buy or sell any securities or financial instruments. All investments involve risk, including the potential loss of principal. Past performance is not indicative of future results. You should conduct your own research and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions.

Shares of SSE Plc (LSE:SSE) fell over 2% on Thursday after the energy company projected a decline in first-half earnings per share for the 2025–26 fiscal year.

The UK-based utility forecast H1 2025–26 EPS of 33p to 37p, consistent with typical seasonal averages but placing the midpoint at roughly 23% of Jefferies’ full-year EPS estimate of 156p, which the brokerage described as “a small negative.”

SSE indicated that full-year performance is expected to remain broadly unchanged, though no formal guidance was provided. Adjusted first-half capital expenditure is projected to rise approximately 60% year-on-year to £1.1 billion, reflecting continued acceleration of Networks spending. Total H1 capex is expected to reach around £1.5 billion, while net debt and hybrid capital are forecast at about £11.5 billion, slightly below Jefferies’ FY25/26 projection of £11.8 billion.

In the renewables segment, the company reported strong second-quarter output, offsetting weaker first-quarter performance due to adverse weather. SSE expects total first-half renewable generation of approximately 5.3 TWh, down 2% year-on-year, with second-quarter output flat at 2.8 TWh.

The company also provided updates on its investment program. SSE submitted the final major ASTI consent application and received planning approval for the Netherton Hub in Aberdeenshire. Major consent was also secured for the Berwick Bank offshore wind farm, clearing the way for potential participation in the UK AR7 auction round.

Jefferies maintained its full-year EPS range for 2026/27 at 175p–200p. Analysts described the first-half midpoint as “on the low end,” reflecting modest near-term earnings pressure despite ongoing capital deployment.

SSE’s guidance highlights continued investments in networks and renewables, alongside weather-driven variability in output. The company reiterated that first-half results are in line with seasonal trends, which typically account for 20–30% of annual earnings in the first six months.

This content is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or other professional advice. It should not be considered a recommendation to buy or sell any securities or financial instruments. All investments involve risk, including the potential loss of principal. Past performance is not indicative of future results. You should conduct your own research and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions.

National Grid Plc (LSE:NG.) reported on Thursday that its first-half fiscal 2026 trading results are in line with expectations, reiterating the guidance provided at the end of fiscal 2025.

The pre-close statement from the electricity and gas utility company confirms performance consistent with previously communicated targets, with full-year EPS guidance positioned at the lower end of a 6–8% growth range. Consensus forecasts currently suggest around 5% year-over-year growth, slightly below National Grid’s guidance.

Morgan Stanley noted that consensus EPS of 76.9p remains under the lower bound of the company’s guided range of 77.7p. “We see consensus already reflecting a cautious ~1.35 FX assumption (vs company assumed 1.3 for the year),” the brokerage said.

The analysts explained that the difference between consensus and guidance largely reflects translation effects and could put upward pressure on estimates if foreign exchange rates move closer to the company’s assumption.

In the UK, electricity distribution and transmission are expected to be roughly evenly split between H1 and H2. In the U.S., a typical second-half skew is anticipated, although less pronounced than last year due to a reduced impact from storms, Morgan Stanley added. The company’s ET-3 Final Determination is anticipated in early December.

Morgan Stanley indicated that they do not expect revisions to full-year consensus EPS at this stage. “We would not expect any revisions to street estimates on average at this stage given consensus mean EPS already below bottom end of 6-8%/yr EPS growth range,” the analysts said. They added that any future adjustments would likely be influenced by foreign exchange developments rather than operational performance.

Full-year guidance remains unchanged from the FY25 close in May. Analysts also pointed out that the gap between consensus and company guidance is fully accounted for by translation effects. “We see scope for potential upward pressure on consensus should FX trend closer to 1.3 and hence translation impact less than consensus currently reflecting. Note this is purely a translation impact.”

This content is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or other professional advice. It should not be considered a recommendation to buy or sell any securities or financial instruments. All investments involve risk, including the potential loss of principal. Past performance is not indicative of future results. You should conduct your own research and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions.

Hochschild Mining (LSE:HOC) is a notable mid-cap player in the precious metals sector, operating three high-grade underground mines across Peru and Argentina. Included in the FTSE 350 Companies index and listed on dividend-focused indices such as FTSE Dividend Yield, the company maintains a structured approach to operations and shareholder returns.

Operations and Production

The company’s three primary mines—two in southern Peru and one in southern Argentina—employ the cut and fill mining method, ideal for extracting ore from high-grade silver and gold veins. This technique allows precise ore recovery, minimizes dilution, and adapts to variable vein structures. The Peruvian operations focus mainly on silver with supplemental gold, while the Argentine mine combines silver and gold production, providing geographic and operational diversification. Advanced equipment and process optimisation ensure consistent operational performance and ore quality.

Strategic Positioning in Precious Metals

Hochschild Mining differentiates itself through operational efficiency, resource quality, and structured production processes. Underground mining operations grant access to high-grade veins while enabling controlled extraction. This model supports sustainable practices, operational continuity, and a focus on maximizing ore recovery compared with open-pit operations.

Corporate Structure and Governance

As a FTSE 350 entity, Hochschild Mining upholds disciplined capital allocation, careful debt management, and liquidity oversight. Its inclusion in dividend-focused indices highlights a consistent approach to shareholder returns. Corporate governance emphasizes accountability, regulatory compliance, and alignment of management incentives with long-term operational goals.

Environmental, Safety, and Reporting Practices

Hochschild Mining prioritizes safety and environmental responsibility across all sites. Measures include controlled underground access, emergency preparedness, and sustainable resource management. Production reporting emphasizes transparency, covering ore grade, extraction methods, and site-specific outputs without implying future performance forecasts.

Historical Milestones and Dividend Practices

The company’s development includes establishing underground mines in Peru and Argentina, achieving high-grade silver and gold extraction, and maintaining structured dividend distributions. These milestones underline decades of operational expertise and commitment to disciplined management of resources and shareholder returns.

Summary

Hochschild Mining stands out as a specialized, mid-cap precious metals producer with structured operations, high-quality resources, and a focus on sustainable, efficient underground mining. Its FTSE 350 inclusion and consistent dividend practices reinforce its position as a reliable and operationally disciplined mining company.

This content is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or other professional advice. It should not be considered a recommendation to buy or sell any securities or financial instruments. All investments involve risk, including the potential loss of principal. Past performance is not indicative of future results. You should conduct your own research and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions.

Tesco PLC (LSE:TSCO) has posted robust interim results for 2025/26, driven by strategic initiatives focused on value, quality, and service, which have led to notable market share gains, particularly in the UK. The company’s efforts to enhance customer satisfaction, expand its online offerings, and leverage technology for personalized engagement have contributed to higher sales and improved financial outcomes. Despite competitive pressures and cost inflation, Tesco remains committed to delivering value to both customers and stakeholders, supported by its share buyback program and investments in distribution and AI capabilities.

Tesco’s solid financial performance and strategic buyback initiatives are key drivers of its strong outlook. Technical analysis and valuation point to a stable market position, although the absence of recent earnings call data limits additional insights.

About Tesco PLC

Tesco PLC is a leading UK-based multinational retailer of groceries and general merchandise. The company offers a broad range of products, including food, clothing, and financial services, with a focus on value, quality, and customer satisfaction. Tesco operates in multiple markets, including the UK, Republic of Ireland, and Central Europe, and continues to grow its online and rapid delivery services.

This content is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or other professional advice. It should not be considered a recommendation to buy or sell any securities or financial instruments. All investments involve risk, including the potential loss of principal. Past performance is not indicative of future results. You should conduct your own research and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions.

UK Oil & Gas PLC (LSE:UKOG) has secured £3 million through a share placing to support its transition into clean energy, with a focus on hydrogen projects. The funds will be used for engineering studies and collaborations necessary for government revenue support applications, helping the company progress its hydrogen storage and generation efforts and strengthen its position in the renewable energy sector.

About UK Oil & Gas PLC

UK Oil & Gas PLC is evolving from traditional petroleum operations to focus on clean energy, particularly hydrogen storage and generation. The company is shifting its market focus toward renewable solutions, with key projects located in South Dorset and Yorkshire.

This content is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or other professional advice. It should not be considered a recommendation to buy or sell any securities or financial instruments. All investments involve risk, including the potential loss of principal. Past performance is not indicative of future results. You should conduct your own research and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions.

Morgan Sindall Group PLC (LSE:MGNS) expects its 2025 financial results to surpass earlier forecasts, driven largely by robust performance in its Fit Out division. The company’s secured order book has grown, signaling confidence in continued growth, while the balance sheet remains strong with higher-than-expected average daily net cash. Strategic partnerships and targeted investments continue to underpin the Group’s growth, though some divisions face rising investment costs.

The company’s outlook is primarily supported by solid financial performance, stable revenue growth, and effective cash flow management. Technical indicators suggest a neutral market position, while reasonable valuation and dividend yield further enhance its appeal. The lack of recent earnings calls or corporate event updates does not materially affect the assessment.

About Morgan Sindall

Morgan Sindall Group PLC operates in the construction services sector, specializing in partnerships, fit out, and broader construction services. The company maintains long-term public sector collaborations, including housing projects, and has a strong presence across the UK.

This content is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or other professional advice. It should not be considered a recommendation to buy or sell any securities or financial instruments. All investments involve risk, including the potential loss of principal. Past performance is not indicative of future results. You should conduct your own research and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions.