Author: Fiona Craig

Taylor Wimpey (LSE:TW.) confirmed its dividend policy and reiterated its 2025 guidance during its capital markets day on Wednesday, highlighting medium-term objectives such as higher completions, improved margins, and enhanced returns.

RBC Capital Markets emphasized the importance of the dividend confirmation. “The key takeaway for us is that the dividend policy has been maintained, hopefully putting the dividend debate to rest,” the brokerage said.

RBC added, “Taylor Wimpey is demonstrating that it has a resilient model in a moribund market and is ready for growth when the market allows.”

The company set a near-term target of 14,000 U.K. completions, above the consensus peak forecast of 13,095 by 2030. Projected operating profit margins are between 16% and 18%, exceeding the 17.1% consensus estimate. The group’s return on net operating assets is expected to surpass 20%, compared with a 21.1% consensus by 2030.

Taylor Wimpey stated its U.K. landbank will be between 4.5 and 5 years, noting that recent planning framework changes enable a shorter landbank. As of H1 2025, the company reported a 6.9-year owned and controlled forward landbank. The capital allocation policy was also reaffirmed.

For 2025, the housebuilder reiterated its operating profit guidance of £424 million, close to the consensus of £426 million. Completion guidance remains at 10,400–10,800 homes, near the consensus of 10,555. Year-end outlets are expected between 210 and 215, versus a consensus of 211, with average outlets projected to increase year on year as capital is redeployed.

In trading for the nine weeks ending September 28, the net private sales rate was 0.65 per outlet per week, down 7.1% from the prior period. Excluding bulk deals, the rate fell 5.9%, compared with a 13% year-on-year decline for the four weeks ending July 27, excluding bulks.

The order book as of September 28 stood at £2,123 million, down 1% in value and 6% in volume compared with the previous year. Forward order book pricing implied a 5% increase year on year. As of June 29, the order book was down 2% in volume and up 5% in value, with pricing remaining broadly flat in recent trading.

This content is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or other professional advice. It should not be considered a recommendation to buy or sell any securities or financial instruments. All investments involve risk, including the potential loss of principal. Past performance is not indicative of future results. You should conduct your own research and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions.

The U.S. dollar slipped on Wednesday, retreating to a one-week low as concerns mount that an extended U.S. government shutdown could dampen economic growth.

At 04:25 ET (08:25 GMT), the Dollar Index, which measures the greenback against six major currencies, was down 0.2% at 97.275, hitting its lowest level in a week.

U.S. Government Shutdown Casts a Shadow

Much of the U.S. government has ceased operations after an eleventh-hour spending bill, supported by Republicans, failed to pass the Senate, with Democrats continuing to resist.

“There doesn’t appear to be a clear path out of the impasse, and many fear this shutdown could last longer than the budget-related closures of the past given the sharp political differences between the two sides.”

President Donald Trump has already signaled further federal workforce reductions, with more than 150,000 workers set to leave the payroll this week after accepting buyouts, marking the largest exodus in eight decades.

“Investors are fearful that this could be a longer shutdown, which will only weigh further on consumer confidence and job security,” said analysts at ING, in a note.

The shutdown is expected to delay Friday’s highly anticipated nonfarm payrolls report, a key indicator that markets use to assess the likelihood of a Federal Reserve rate cut later this month. In the meantime, the ADP National Employment Report may receive extra scrutiny and is forecasted to show a modest increase of 50,000 private-sector jobs for September.

Euro Gains Ahead of Eurozone Inflation Data

In European trading, EUR/USD rose 0.2% to 1.1757 as investors awaited the eurozone CPI release later in the session, expected to show annual inflation ticking up to 2.2% from 2% previously.

However, the risk remains to the upside following Germany’s higher-than-expected inflation in September, which rose for a second consecutive month, ending the disinflation trend seen over recent months.

“However, we think the U.S. government shutdown and the softer dollar story should dominate today and could be enough to drag EUR/USD to 1.1800/1820,” said ING.

GBP/USD also moved 0.2% higher to 1.3474, as sterling gained after Nationwide Building Society reported that U.K. house prices rose faster than expected last month, climbing 0.5% in September following a 0.1% decline in August. Year-over-year, house prices were up 2.2%, slightly above August’s 2.1% increase, yet still below average wage growth and inflation.

Dollar Weakness Supports Yen

Elsewhere, USD/JPY fell 0.5% to 147.14, with the Japanese yen benefiting from dollar softness. The Bank of Japan’s quarterly “tankan” survey released Wednesday showed improving confidence among large manufacturers for the second consecutive quarter, with companies maintaining positive spending plans.

AUD/USD edged down 0.1% to 0.6607, reversing prior session gains after the Reserve Bank of Australia held interest rates steady. The pause follows three cuts earlier in 2025, as the RBA weighs rising inflation risks against signs of slowing economic momentum.

USD/CNY remained largely unchanged at 7.1196.

This content is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or other professional advice. It should not be considered a recommendation to buy or sell any securities or financial instruments. All investments involve risk, including the potential loss of principal. Past performance is not indicative of future results. You should conduct your own research and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions.

UBS has kept a cautious view on palladium in its latest metals outlook, released Tuesday, pointing to the metal’s significant reliance on conventional car technologies.

The bank emphasized that more than 80% of palladium demand comes from its use in catalytic converters for internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles, concentrating the market’s exposure to a single sector.

While the adoption of electric vehicles outside China has been slower than anticipated, UBS underlined that the broader trend toward phasing out ICEs remains firmly on track.

Analysts at the bank anticipate that this gradual shift away from traditional engines will eventually create a structural surplus in the palladium market. UBS indicated that this imbalance is expected to emerge “at some point over the coming years,” without pinpointing an exact timeframe for the shift.

This content is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or other professional advice. It should not be considered a recommendation to buy or sell any securities or financial instruments. All investments involve risk, including the potential loss of principal. Past performance is not indicative of future results. You should conduct your own research and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions.

Oil prices stabilized on Wednesday following two days of declines, as investors evaluated OPEC+ intentions for a larger production increase next month alongside the economic uncertainty triggered by the U.S. government shutdown.

Brent crude for December delivery edged up 25 cents to $66.28 a barrel by 06:43 GMT, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude rose 22 cents to $62.59 a barrel. Both benchmarks had posted declines of more than 3% on Monday—the steepest daily losses since August 1—and fell another 1.5% on Tuesday.

“The weakness stems largely from supply-side developments, with OPEC gradually reviving production … adding to market concerns over a potential supply overhang,” said Sugandha Sachdeva, founder of SS WealthStreet, a research firm based in New Delhi.

According to sources familiar with the discussions, OPEC+—the coalition of oil-exporting nations—could approve a production increase of up to 500,000 barrels per day (bpd) in November, triple October’s hike, as Saudi Arabia seeks to reclaim market share. Eight members of the group, representing about half of global oil output, are reportedly considering boosts of 274,000 to 411,000 bpd, while a third source indicated the rise could reach 500,000 bpd.

OPEC clarified in a post on X that media reports suggesting a 500,000 bpd output increase were misleading.

Further pressure on crude came from an industry report showing U.S. oil inventories fell, while gasoline and distillate stocks climbed last week. Market sources citing American Petroleum Institute data estimated that crude stocks dropped by 3.67 million barrels in the week ending September 26. Gasoline inventories rose 1.3 million barrels, and distillate stocks increased by 3 million barrels.

“While U.S. crude inventories have been on a declining trend, the pace of drawdowns has slowed, tempering bullish sentiment,” Sachdeva added.

The U.S. government shut down much of its operations on Wednesday due to deep partisan divisions, preventing Congress and the White House from agreeing on a funding plan. Agencies warned that this 15th shutdown since 1981 would delay the release of a closely watched September jobs report, slow air travel, suspend scientific research, halt pay for U.S. troops, and furlough 750,000 federal workers at a daily cost of $400 million.

Meanwhile, data from Asia—the world’s largest oil-consuming region—added to concerns about fuel demand. Surveys released Wednesday indicated that manufacturing activity contracted across most major economies in September, pressured by weaker Chinese demand, softer U.S. growth, and looming tariffs.

This content is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or other professional advice. It should not be considered a recommendation to buy or sell any securities or financial instruments. All investments involve risk, including the potential loss of principal. Past performance is not indicative of future results. You should conduct your own research and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions.

Gold prices surged to record levels in Asian trading on Wednesday, following the start of a U.S. government shutdown after Congress failed to approve new federal funding.

Spot gold reached an all-time high of $2,875.53 per ounce, while December gold futures peaked at $3,903.45/oz. By 00:22 ET (04:22 GMT), spot prices had eased slightly to $3,862.22 per ounce.

U.S. Government Halts Operations Amid Congressional Deadlock

The shutdown came into effect at midnight Tuesday (0400 GMT Wednesday), after a last-minute spending bill supported by Republicans failed to pass the Senate due to continued opposition from Democrats.

The political impasse in Washington has fueled demand for safe-haven assets, sending gold to a string of record highs this week and pressuring the U.S. dollar.

Other precious metals have also benefited from the safe-haven demand, with platinum and silver reaching 12- and 14-year peaks, respectively. On Wednesday, spot silver rose 0.9% to $47.0525/oz, while spot platinum dipped 0.3% to $1,572.18/oz.

Industrial metals, which had seen strong gains earlier in the week, experienced slight declines on Wednesday. London Metal Exchange copper futures fell 0.1% to $10,278.10 per ton, while COMEX copper futures dropped 0.7% to $4.8450.

Labor Market Data Faces Possible Delays

The government shutdown is likely to delay the release of key labor market statistics, including the September nonfarm payrolls report scheduled for Friday. The report, a closely watched indicator, provides insight into U.S. employment trends, which influenced the Federal Reserve’s September rate cut.

“Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan flagged heightened caution over future interest rate cuts, stating that the labor market will need to deteriorate further for the central bank to consider more rate cuts,” analysts noted.

A prolonged shutdown could also disrupt subsequent economic data releases, adding uncertainty for markets as investors weigh the outlook for U.S. growth and monetary policy.

This content is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or other professional advice. It should not be considered a recommendation to buy or sell any securities or financial instruments. All investments involve risk, including the potential loss of principal. Past performance is not indicative of future results. You should conduct your own research and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions.

U.S. stock futures plunged Wednesday as the federal government shut down, driving investors toward safe-haven gold amid concerns over potential economic impacts. Meanwhile, Nike delivered encouraging news as its first-quarter results signaled early success for its turnaround strategy.

Government Shutdown Hits U.S. Operations

Much of the U.S. government ceased operations Wednesday after a last-minute spending bill supported by Republicans failed to pass the Senate due to Democratic opposition.

This marks the 15th shutdown since 1981 and the second under President Donald Trump, who has threatened additional federal layoffs. Tens of thousands of workers have already left this year, and over 150,000 federal employees are expected to exit payrolls this week following buyouts—the largest exodus in 80 years.

There is no clear solution in sight, raising concerns that this shutdown could last longer than previous budget-related closures due to deep political divisions. The longest shutdown in U.S. history spanned 35 days from December 2018 to January 2019 during Trump’s first term over border security.

The shutdown is expected to delay the release of Friday’s crucial September employment report, disrupt air travel, suspend scientific research, withhold pay for U.S. troops, and furlough 750,000 federal workers at a daily cost of $400 million.

U.S. Futures Fall

U.S. stock futures declined as investors worried about growth prospects. At 03:00 ET, S&P 500 futures fell 55 points (0.8%), Nasdaq 100 futures dropped 155 points (0.6%), and Dow futures fell 295 points (0.6%).

Major indices had closed higher Tuesday despite the looming shutdown, with September providing an unusually strong trading month. The S&P 500 logged a 7.8% gain for Q3.

Historically, Wall Street has often risen during shutdowns, but this episode is more worrisome as investors remain concerned about a slowing labor market and the Trump administration’s plans to shrink federal payrolls significantly.

The ADP private payroll report, scheduled later in the session, will be closely watched, while Conagra Brands (NYSE:CAG) leads corporate earnings releases.

Payroll Report Likely Delayed

A key consequence of the shutdown is the probable delay of Friday’s nonfarm payroll report for September, a critical gauge of the labor market. Investors are looking to this report for insight into labor conditions, which influenced the Fed’s September rate cut.

Doubts about further cuts emerged after hawkish Fed commentary. Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan stated Tuesday that “the labor market will need to deteriorate further for the central bank to consider more rate cuts.”

Data released Tuesday showed U.S. job openings rose slightly in August while hiring slowed, signaling a softening labor market that might allow the Fed one more cut this month. The ADP National Employment Report, expected later, is projected to show a modest increase of 50,000 private-sector jobs.

Nike Impresses with Q1 Growth

Nike (NYSE:NKE) gained attention after posting stronger-than-expected first-quarter results, signaling progress in CEO Elliott Hill’s turnaround plan despite challenges in China and tariff pressures.

The company reported quarterly profits above Wall Street expectations, boosted by stronger wholesale revenue, pushing shares up over 3% in after-hours trading.

Nike revealed that tariffs could cost roughly $1.5 billion this year, higher than the $1 billion projected earlier, due to production in countries like Vietnam affected by U.S. tariffs.

“This quarter Nike drove progress through our Win Now actions in our priority areas of North America, Wholesale, and Running,” Hill said.

Gold Hits New Records

Gold prices soared to record highs as the government shutdown intensified safe-haven demand. Spot gold reached $2,875.53 an ounce, while December gold futures peaked at $3,903.45/oz.

The yellow metal has set multiple records this week as U.S. political deadlock pressured the dollar, prompting investors to favor safe assets. Other precious metals have also surged, with platinum and silver hitting 12- and 14-year highs, respectively.

Oil Prices Stabilize

Oil steadied after two days of declines amid considerations of OPEC+ production plans and the shutdown’s potential economic impact. Brent futures rose 0.4% to $66.29/barrel, and WTI gained 3% to $62.58/barrel.

Earlier this week, both benchmarks fell sharply—over 3% Monday and another 1.5% Tuesday. OPEC+ could boost output by up to 500,000 barrels per day in November, three times the October increase, Reuters reported.

This content is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or other professional advice. It should not be considered a recommendation to buy or sell any securities or financial instruments. All investments involve risk, including the potential loss of principal. Past performance is not indicative of future results. You should conduct your own research and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions.

European stocks showed mixed performance on Wednesday as investors weighed the potential effects of the U.S. government shutdown ahead of important eurozone inflation data.

By 07:40 GMT, Germany’s DAX index had fallen 0.4%, France’s CAC 40 slipped 0.2%, while the U.K.’s FTSE 100 gained 0.4%.

U.S. Government Shutdown Moves Forward

The U.S. federal government largely shut down Wednesday after a last-minute spending bill supported by Republicans failed to pass the Senate, facing continued opposition from Democrats. This marks the 15th U.S. shutdown since 1981. While most previous shutdowns were resolved relatively quickly, the longest occurred during President Donald Trump’s first term. Political divisions are arguably deeper now.

Trump has threatened additional federal layoffs, with over 150,000 employees expected to leave payrolls this week following buyouts, marking the largest federal workforce exit in 80 years. The shutdown could weigh on growth in the world’s largest economy, a key driver of global growth.

Eurozone Inflation in Focus

In Europe, attention is turning to September’s eurozone inflation data, expected to show annual inflation rising to 2.2% from 2.0%. Upside risks are noted after German inflation accelerated more than expected in September, ending the recent disinflationary trend. As Europe’s largest economy, Germany’s inflation data will heavily influence the overall eurozone figure.

The European Central Bank kept interest rates unchanged last month, and stronger inflation could suggest policymakers see the easing cycle as concluded, at least temporarily.

Corporate News

Novartis (NYSE:NVO) shares rose after the U.S. FDA approved its oral treatment for patients with a chronic inflammatory skin condition. BMW (TG: BMW) slipped slightly following a U.S. recall of over 145,000 vehicles due to potential starter motor overheating. Greggs (LSE: GRG) shares climbed after reporting solid third-quarter sales and maintaining its full-year guidance.

Oil and Gold Update

Oil prices stabilized after two days of losses as investors considered OPEC+ plans for a larger November output hike and the impact of the U.S. shutdown on demand. Brent futures rose 0.6% to $66.43/barrel, while WTI climbed 0.6% to $62.76/barrel. Earlier in the week, both benchmarks fell sharply, with Brent and WTI dropping more than 3% on Monday and another 1.5% on Tuesday. OPEC+ could boost output by up to 500,000 barrels per day next month, triple the October increase, Reuters reported.

Spot gold reached a record $2,875.53/oz earlier in the session, while December gold futures peaked at $3,903.45/oz, as the U.S. shutdown drove demand for safe-haven assets.

This content is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or other professional advice. It should not be considered a recommendation to buy or sell any securities or financial instruments. All investments involve risk, including the potential loss of principal. Past performance is not indicative of future results. You should conduct your own research and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions.

Greggs plc (LSE:GRG) posted a 6.1% rise in total sales for Q3 2025, with year-to-date sales up 6.7%. After a slow July due to high temperatures, trading improved in August and September. The company opened 130 new shops while closing 73, resulting in 57 net new openings, and expects around 120 net openings for the full year. Greggs is also expanding its ‘Bake at Home’ range, introducing high-protein and seasonal menu items, and progressing supply chain investments with new distribution centers in Derby and Kettering planned for 2026 and 2027. Cost inflation expectations for 2025 have slightly eased, and the board maintains its full-year guidance.

Greggs’ strong financial performance, consistent revenue growth, and solid profitability underpin a positive outlook. Valuation remains attractive, with a low P/E ratio and healthy dividend yield, though technical indicators suggest a neutral to slightly bearish short-term trend.

About Greggs plc

Greggs plc is a leading UK food retailer, offering bakery products, sandwiches, salads, and beverages. The company focuses on convenience and affordability through a network of company-managed and franchised shops nationwide.

This content is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or other professional advice. It should not be considered a recommendation to buy or sell any securities or financial instruments. All investments involve risk, including the potential loss of principal. Past performance is not indicative of future results. You should conduct your own research and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions.

Defence Holdings PLC (LSE:ALRT) has unveiled its second classified AI product, designed for edge-based analysis and identification support in line with NATO’s urgent operational priorities. The solution aims to improve target identification, reduce misclassification, and aid decision-making in contested environments, enhancing the capabilities of existing hardware. The initiative also aligns with the UK Strategic Defence Review 2025 objectives, showcasing Defence Holdings’ ability to rapidly translate strategy into commercially viable defence technology.

About Defence Holdings PLC

Defence Holdings PLC is the UK’s first listed software-led defence company, specializing in AI-enabled solutions for military applications. The company focuses on addressing critical operational gaps for UK and allied forces by providing software-driven products that augment existing hardware capabilities.

This content is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or other professional advice. It should not be considered a recommendation to buy or sell any securities or financial instruments. All investments involve risk, including the potential loss of principal. Past performance is not indicative of future results. You should conduct your own research and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions.

James Halstead PLC (LSE:JHD) posted a modest decline in revenue and profit for the year ending 30 June 2025, reflecting challenges in Europe and the APAC regions. The company achieved growth in North America and Malaysia, improved gross margins, and continued investing in operations and product development. Highlighting confidence in its future, James Halstead announced a record dividend increase for the 49th consecutive year. Key projects included installations at major international sites, with ongoing commitment to sustainability and social responsibility initiatives.

The company’s outlook is supported by strong financial stability and profitability, underpinned by a robust balance sheet. However, technical indicators suggest weak short-term momentum, and while valuation appears reasonable, the dividend yield anomaly warrants attention. Limited recent earnings call or corporate event data restricts further insights.

About James Halstead

James Halstead PLC, based in Bury, UK, is a longstanding manufacturer and global distributor of commercial and domestic flooring. Listed on the London Stock Exchange, the company emphasizes brand development through quality, innovation, and sustainability, supplying flooring to over 60 countries worldwide.

This content is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or other professional advice. It should not be considered a recommendation to buy or sell any securities or financial instruments. All investments involve risk, including the potential loss of principal. Past performance is not indicative of future results. You should conduct your own research and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions.