Author: Fiona Craig

Futures for major U.S. stock indexes point to a slightly weaker open Tuesday, suggesting that equities may give back some of the gains recorded over the past two trading sessions.

Investors are likely weighing recent market strength against growing concerns over a possible government shutdown, which would occur if Congress fails to pass funding by 12:01 a.m. ET on Wednesday.

Democrats are insisting that a temporary funding bill extend enhanced Obamacare tax credits, while Republicans maintain that these issues should be addressed only after a funding bill is approved.

After Monday’s meeting between President Donald Trump and Congressional leaders, Vice President JD Vance said, “we’re headed to a shutdown because the Democrats won’t do the right thing.”

“Relations between the Democrats and Republicans are frostier than an Alaska morning, so markets are not confident on the prospects of agreeing a deal before midnight tonight,” noted Russ Mould, investment director at AJ Bell.

He added, “One of the biggest short-term concerns for markets is the impact this would have on the release of government data – particularly the jobs number due on Friday – without which the Federal Reserve might not feel as confident about cutting interest rates.”

Still, any sell-off could be muted, as lawmakers often reach last-minute agreements to prevent a shutdown.

On Monday, major indexes mostly climbed, extending gains from Friday. The Nasdaq added 107.09 points, or 0.5 percent, to 22,591.15; the S&P 500 rose 17.51 points, or 0.3 percent, to 6,661.21; and the Dow gained 68.78 points, or 0.2 percent, to 46,316.07.

Tech stocks contributed to Wall Street’s rally, with AI leader Nvidia (NASDAQ:NVDA) jumping 2.1 percent. Video game maker Electronic Arts (NASDAQ:EA) rose 4.5 percent after announcing an all-cash acquisition by a consortium including PIF, Silver Lake, and Affinity Partners, valuing the company at roughly $55 billion. EA shareholders will receive $210 per share, a 25 percent premium to the unaffected closing price of $168.32 on September 25.

Despite these gains, traders exercised caution, mindful of the looming shutdown risk. Market attention also turns to the Labor Department’s jobs report, scheduled for Friday, which could be delayed if the government closes, potentially influencing Federal Reserve interest rate decisions.

Computer hardware stocks outperformed, with the NYSE Arca Computer Hardware Index jumping 4.1 percent. Western Digital (NASDAQ:WDC) led the rally with a 9.2 percent gain after Morgan Stanley significantly raised its price target.

Brokerage stocks showed strength, reflected by a 1.4 percent rise in the NYSE Arca Broker/Dealer Index.

Energy stocks, however, weakened amid falling crude oil prices, pulling the NYSE Arca Oil Index down 2.3 percent and the Philadelphia Oil Service Index down 1.7 percent.

This content is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or other professional advice. It should not be considered a recommendation to buy or sell any securities or financial instruments. All investments involve risk, including the potential loss of principal. Past performance is not indicative of future results. You should conduct your own research and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions.

Serica Energy plc (LSE:SQZ) announced on Tuesday that it has entered into an agreement to acquire 100% of Prax Upstream Limited from Prax Exploration & Production Plc (in Administration) for $25.6 million.

The acquisition encompasses a 40% operated stake in the Greater Laggan Area, a 10% interest in the Catcher Field, a 5.21% stake in the Golden Eagle Area Development, and full ownership of the Lancaster field.

The deal adds 11.0 million barrels of oil equivalent (mmboe) in 2P reserves at an acquisition cost of $2.3 per barrel. In the first half of 2025, the combined assets produced 13,800 barrels of oil equivalent per day (boepd).

“This transaction represents a further step in the delivery of our growth strategy – it diversifies our portfolio, increases our reserves and resources, and enhances near-term cashflows at an attractive valuation,” said Chris Cox, Serica’s CEO.

Under the terms, Serica will pay the upfront consideration and is expected to receive payments totaling roughly $100 million, reflecting interim post-tax cashflows based on the economic dates of each transaction and estimated completion dates. The company anticipates an additional $50 million of free cash flow from these assets in 2026. Completion of the acquisition is targeted for Q4 2025, with remaining sale and purchase agreements scheduled for finalization in Q1 2026.

The Greater Laggan Area assets include the Laggan, Tormore, Glenlivet, Edradour, and Glendronach fields, the onshore Shetland Gas Plant, and four infrastructure-led exploration licenses. These assets contributed 5,000 boepd in H1 2025, with gas accounting for 90% of output.

The Lancaster field, in which Serica now holds full ownership, produced 5,900 boepd in H1 2025 but is expected to cease production after Q3 2026.

Following the acquisition, Serica’s portfolio will maintain one of the lowest decommissioning liabilities per 2P barrel in the UK North Sea, with short-term decommissioning costs primarily associated with the Lancaster field.

This content is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or other professional advice. It should not be considered a recommendation to buy or sell any securities or financial instruments. All investments involve risk, including the potential loss of principal. Past performance is not indicative of future results. You should conduct your own research and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions.

The U.S. dollar slipped on Tuesday as markets grappled with the dual pressures of a potential government shutdown and key upcoming labor data.

By 05:25 ET (09:25 GMT), the Dollar Index, which measures the greenback against six major currencies, was down 0.2% at 97.442.

U.S. Government Shutdown Looms

With the deadline for passing a short-term funding bill approaching, the risk of a government closure is increasing. Lawmakers from both parties have traded blame over the stalemate following a Monday meeting with President Donald Trump. Vice President JD Vance said he now believes the government is “headed to a shutdown.”

“The dollar has suffered from rising risk of a U.S. government shutdown and falling oil prices since the weekend,” said analysts at ING in a note.

Analysts also warn that a shutdown could postpone the release of crucial nonfarm payrolls data scheduled for Friday. This elevates the importance of today’s August JOLTs figures, a key indicator of job openings and hiring demand, as traders seek signals for potential interest rate cuts later this year.

“Remember the July issue was bad, with job openings dropping and layoffs accelerating,” ING added. “Today’s numbers can be quite impactful on the dollar, which now has a more balanced positioning and embeds a less pessimistic macro view compared to a couple of weeks ago….this means downside risks for the dollar.”

German CPI Offers Upside

In Europe, EUR/USD rose 0.2% to 1.1747 after preliminary data indicated rising inflation in four major German states during September. Analysts expect harmonized national inflation to edge up to 2.2% from 2.1% last month. As Europe’s largest economy, Germany’s inflation figures may signal broader eurozone trends, with full data due Wednesday.

GBP/USD gained 0.1% to 1.3345, supported by U.K. GDP growth of 0.3% in Q2 and a revised annual growth rate of 1.4%, up from the prior estimate of 1.2%.

Aussie Steady After RBA Hold

AUD/USD climbed 0.4% to 0.6606 after the Reserve Bank of Australia kept its cash rate at 3.60%, pausing after three cuts earlier in 2025. Officials said they prefer to await clearer inflation and labor market signals.

USD/JPY dropped 0.5% to 147.92 after August data showed Japan’s factory output fell 1.2% for the second consecutive month, reflecting ongoing industrial weakness. Separate figures also revealed the fastest decline in Japanese retail sales in four years.

USD/CNY edged slightly higher to 7.1199 following China’s report that manufacturing activity contracted for a sixth straight month in September, with the service sector also showing weaker activity.

This content is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or other professional advice. It should not be considered a recommendation to buy or sell any securities or financial instruments. All investments involve risk, including the potential loss of principal. Past performance is not indicative of future results. You should conduct your own research and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions.

Shares of UK-listed betting companies fell on Tuesday after Finance Minister Rachel Reeves indicated that gambling operators could face increased taxation.

Speaking to ITV News on Monday, Reeves said there is “a case for gambling companies to pay more taxes,” sparking concern among investors in the sector.

The comments follow a recent push from over 100 Labour MPs who earlier this month called for higher taxes on gambling businesses. Lawmakers cited the UK’s comparatively lower gambling tax rates as justification for a hike.

Among the hardest-hit stocks, Evoke (LSE:EVOK) fell 1.5% as of 09:07 GMT, making it one of the biggest decliners on London’s small-cap index, which was down 0.09%. Other gambling operators also traded lower, with Entain (LSE:ENT) slipping 1.08% and Flutter (LSE:FLTR) down 0.5%.

This content is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or other professional advice. It should not be considered a recommendation to buy or sell any securities or financial instruments. All investments involve risk, including the potential loss of principal. Past performance is not indicative of future results. You should conduct your own research and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions.

3i Infrastructure PLC (LSE:3IN) reported first-half returns that exceeded expectations on Tuesday, driven by robust performance from its largest holding, TCR, which helped push the stock higher.

The firm indicated it is on track to surpass its target return for the period ending September 29 and to achieve its full-year dividend goal of 13.45p, fully covered by net income.

In a pre-close update, management highlighted that the company “maintains a disciplined approach to pricing despite an active asset pipeline.” Proceeds from the next asset sale are earmarked to reduce part of its £900 million revolving credit facility, of which £360 million is currently drawn.

3i Infrastructure also reported a cash balance of £13 million and total income and non-income cash of £122 million, representing an 18% increase compared with the same period last year.

TCR exceeded the projections set in March 2025, benefiting from higher rental margins and cost efficiencies. Infinis also outperformed expectations, supported by progress in its development pipeline.

FLAG reported strong demand for subsea fibre connectivity, driven by hyperscaler growth and AI workloads, while ESVAGT maintained a solid pipeline despite vessel delivery delays caused by shipyard operational issues. Management noted that recovery for SRL “remains slow.”

“A strong headline from 3IN with the company ahead of guidance for H1, whilst also indicating a further realisation is expected. We continue to expect strong demand for 3IN assets and therefore expect a good premium on any realisation,“ said analysts at RBC Capital Markets in a note.

This content is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or other professional advice. It should not be considered a recommendation to buy or sell any securities or financial instruments. All investments involve risk, including the potential loss of principal. Past performance is not indicative of future results. You should conduct your own research and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions.

Shares of UK-based payments firm PayPoint (LSE:PAY) climbed roughly 8% on Tuesday, leading gains on London’s mid-cap index.

The rally followed the announcement that International Distribution Services (IDS), the parent company of Royal Mail, is investing £43.9 million in PayPoint’s Collect+ business.

Under the deal, IDS acquires a 49% stake in Collect+, valuing the unit at £90 million.

In connection with the transaction, PayPoint declared a special dividend of 50 pence per share for its shareholders.

The company also anticipates that the investment will bolster earnings per share in the first full fiscal year ending March 2027.

This content is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or other professional advice. It should not be considered a recommendation to buy or sell any securities or financial instruments. All investments involve risk, including the potential loss of principal. Past performance is not indicative of future results. You should conduct your own research and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions.

Boeing Co (NYSE:BA) is moving forward with early plans for a new single-aisle aircraft designed to succeed the 737 MAX, in an effort to regain competitiveness against Airbus (EU:AIR), the Wall Street Journal reported Monday, citing sources familiar with the discussions.

The report notes that CEO Kelly Ortberg held talks earlier this year with Rolls-Royce Holdings PLC (LSE:RR.) in the U.K. to explore potential engine options for the future jet.

Boeing has also begun drafting designs for the flight deck of the next-generation narrow-body aircraft and appointed a senior product executive with prior experience in aircraft development, according to the Journal.

The initiative is still in its infancy, and Ortberg has yet to provide public details. He has emphasized that Boeing’s immediate focus remains on resolving quality issues, delivering its roughly 6,000-plane backlog, and shoring up the company’s financial position.

Developing a completely new “clean-sheet” airplane is expected to take more than ten years and require tens of billions of dollars in investment. Rolls-Royce has suggested an engine capable of increasing fuel efficiency by up to 20%, the report added.

Boeing has faced significant hurdles in recent years, including two fatal 737 MAX crashes in 2019 that led to a fleet grounding and delayed variant launches. The company also abandoned plans for a midsize jet and continues to lag on the 777 upgrade program.

This content is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or other professional advice. It should not be considered a recommendation to buy or sell any securities or financial instruments. All investments involve risk, including the potential loss of principal. Past performance is not indicative of future results. You should conduct your own research and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions.

A.G. Barr Plc (LSE:BAG) reported a 20.1% increase in adjusted pre-tax profit for the first half of the year, driven by improved margins and robust demand for its Boost brand.

For the 26 weeks ending July 26, the Scottish soft drinks producer posted an adjusted pre-tax profit of £35.2 million, up from £29.3 million a year earlier. Adjusted operating margins expanded to 15% from 13%, while revenue grew 3.1% to £228.1 million compared with £221.3 million in the same period in 2024.

Statutory profit before tax rose to £35.2 million from £24.9 million, and statutory basic earnings per share increased to 24.90p from 16.88p. The board declared an interim dividend of 3.44p per share, up 11% from 3.10p, payable on November 7 to shareholders registered by October 10.

The company said growth was largely driven by its soft drinks portfolio, which recorded a 3.3% sales increase. Boost achieved double-digit revenue growth, mainly via wholesale channels.

IRN-BRU sales remained stable year-on-year, with new marketing campaigns and a limited-edition flavor planned for H2. Rubicon posted modest gains after launching Rubicon Spring Vits, while cocktail solutions revenue declined 5.2% to £20 million. Other revenue rose 26.8% to £7.1 million.

During the period, A.G. Barr acquired a 50.1% stake in functional drinks business Innate-Essence Ltd and completed the sale of the Strathmore water brand.

The company ended the period with net cash at £41.3 million, compared with £43.7 million last year, reflecting the acquisition. Net cash generated from operating activities increased to £15.7 million from £13 million a year earlier.

Chairman Mark Allen and CEO Euan Sutherland said the company entered H2 with strong momentum, supported by marketing initiatives and product innovation. They reaffirmed full-year profit guidance.

This content is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or other professional advice. It should not be considered a recommendation to buy or sell any securities or financial instruments. All investments involve risk, including the potential loss of principal. Past performance is not indicative of future results. You should conduct your own research and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions.

European equities dipped on Tuesday as investors weighed the potential effects on global growth from newly imposed U.S. tariffs and the looming risk of a federal government shutdown.

At 07:02 GMT, Germany’s DAX fell 0.2%, France’s CAC 40 also declined 0.2%, while the U.K.’s FTSE 100 inched up 0.1%.

New U.S. Tariffs

On Monday evening, U.S. President Donald Trump announced tariffs on imports of lumber, furniture, and kitchen fittings, effective October 14, according to the official proclamation. The measures include a 10% duty on softwood lumber and timber, a 25% levy on kitchen cabinets and vanities, and a 25% tariff on upholstered wooden products.

Last week, Trump also introduced a 100% tariff on pharmaceutical imports, part of his broader plan to encourage domestic production and reduce reliance on foreign goods.

Economic data from Asia highlighted the ripple effects of trade uncertainty. China’s manufacturing activity contracted for a sixth consecutive month in September, while Japanese factory output dropped more than expected in August.

In Europe, German import prices fell 1.5% year-on-year in August. Meanwhile, the U.K. economy grew 0.3% in Q2 2025, in line with preliminary estimates but down from 0.7% in the previous quarter, according to the Office for National Statistics.

U.S. Government Shutdown Risks

Attention remains on Washington as a potential government shutdown nears. Monday’s White House meeting between Trump and top congressional leaders failed to yield an agreement.

A shutdown could delay the release of critical nonfarm payrolls data for September, scheduled for Friday, which is closely watched for indications on future Federal Reserve policy moves. Today’s JOLTS report is also under scrutiny as investors seek clues on the likelihood of further rate cuts this year.

Corporate Moves

Danish jewellery maker Pandora (USOTC:PANDY) announced that CEO Alexander Lacik will retire in March 2026, with Chief Marketing Officer Berta de Pablos-Barbier set to take over.

Scottish soft drinks company A.G. Barr (LSE:BAG) reported a first-half adjusted pre-tax profit increase of just over 20%, boosted by margin improvements and strong demand for its Boost brand.

Oil Markets

Crude prices slipped on Tuesday, heading toward monthly losses amid reports that major producers are planning to boost output in November, raising concerns over excess supply.

By 03:02 ET, Brent futures fell 0.5% to $66.76 a barrel, while U.S. WTI futures dropped 0.4% to $63.20 a barrel. Both benchmarks had already fallen more than 3% on Monday and remain on track for monthly declines exceeding 1%.

OPEC+—the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies including Russia—is reportedly considering an additional production increase of at least 137,000 barrels per day in November. The group will meet virtually on October 5 to discuss the plan, following a similar production rise already scheduled for October as the alliance transitions from deep cuts to measured growth to defend market share.

This content is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or other professional advice. It should not be considered a recommendation to buy or sell any securities or financial instruments. All investments involve risk, including the potential loss of principal. Past performance is not indicative of future results. You should conduct your own research and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions.

Oil prices slipped on Tuesday amid expectations of further production increases from OPEC+ and the restart of crude exports from Iraq’s Kurdistan region via Turkey, heightening worries over a potential supply glut.

Brent crude futures for November delivery, expiring on Tuesday, dropped 28 cents, or 0.4%, to $67.69 a barrel by 06:30 GMT. The December contract, which is more actively traded, declined 33 cents, or 0.5%, to $66.76 a barrel.

U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude was down 29 cents, or 0.5%, at $63.16 a barrel. These declines followed Monday’s losses, when Brent and WTI both fell more than 3% in their largest daily drop since August 1.

The price retreat comes as Iraq’s Kurdistan region resumed crude shipments over the weekend, and reports suggest OPEC+ may approve an additional production increase for November at its upcoming meeting, IG analyst Tony Sycamore noted in a client briefing.

Three sources familiar with the discussions indicated that OPEC+—the coalition of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies including Russia—is expected to greenlight a production boost of at least 137,000 barrels per day in its Sunday session.

“Although (OPEC+ is) under their quota anyway, the market still does not seem to like the fact that more oil is coming in,” Marex analyst Ed Meir said.

Meanwhile, crude began flowing on Saturday through a pipeline from the semi-autonomous Kurdistan region in northern Iraq to Turkey for the first time in two and a half years, following an interim deal that broke a long-standing deadlock, Iraq’s oil ministry reported.

Markets have been navigating a mix of supply risks, primarily stemming from Ukrainian drone attacks on Russian refineries, against concerns of oversupply and subdued demand.

Adding to bearish pressures, the looming risk of a U.S. government shutdown has fueled worries over energy demand, ANZ analysts noted in a Tuesday report. A shutdown could interrupt a wide range of government services and delay key economic data releases, including the Friday payrolls report, which is closely monitored by Federal Reserve policymakers.

Elsewhere on the geopolitical front, U.S. President Donald Trump secured Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu’s support for a U.S.-backed Gaza peace initiative, though Hamas’s position remains uncertain.

This content is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or other professional advice. It should not be considered a recommendation to buy or sell any securities or financial instruments. All investments involve risk, including the potential loss of principal. Past performance is not indicative of future results. You should conduct your own research and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions.