Author: Fiona Craig

BP (LSE:BP.) announced on Monday that it will proceed with a $5 billion offshore drilling venture in the U.S. Gulf of Mexico, named Tiber-Guadalupe. The decision underscores BP’s renewed focus on its core oil and gas operations.

The project is slated to start producing oil and gas in 2030, featuring a new floating production platform capable of handling up to 80,000 barrels of crude per day.

After lagging behind peers such as Shell and Exxon Mobil in recent years, partly due to increasing debt, BP revealed in February plans to scale back renewable energy investments and expand oil and gas output to revitalize its operations and regain investor confidence.

The U.S. Gulf region is central to this strategy, with BP targeting production of at least 400,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day by 2030, up from 341,000 boepd recorded last year.

The Tiber-Guadalupe platform will tap into the Tiber and Guadalupe fields, located roughly 300 miles (480 km) southwest of New Orleans, which together are estimated to contain around 350 million barrels of recoverable oil equivalent resources.

This will be BP’s second project in the Gulf capable of producing under ultra-high pressures of 20,000 pounds per square inch, representing a major technological milestone for the company.

This content is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or other professional advice. It should not be considered a recommendation to buy or sell any securities or financial instruments. All investments involve risk, including the potential loss of principal. Past performance is not indicative of future results. You should conduct your own research and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions.

Gold prices climbed to unprecedented levels in early Asian trading on Monday, driven by safe-haven demand amid growing fears of a potential U.S. government shutdown this week. Expectations of lower interest rates also supported the rally.

Spot gold reached a record $3,812 an ounce, while December gold futures hit a peak of $3,839.05/oz. Other metals also saw strong gains, buoyed by a softer dollar following inflation data last week that reinforced market expectations for additional Federal Reserve rate cuts. Silver and platinum rose to more than a decade-high, reflecting broad-based investor interest in precious metals.

U.S. Government Shutdown Risks in Focus

The potential shutdown of U.S. federal operations has heightened haven demand. Funding for the federal government is set to expire at midnight on September 30, with Congress yet to agree on replacement or extension funding.

Bipartisan negotiations are ongoing. Republicans are reportedly advocating a short-term funding bill through November, while Democrats insist on reversing recent healthcare and Medicaid cuts before approving further spending legislation. Congressional leaders from both parties are scheduled to meet President Donald Trump on Monday to mediate.

A government shutdown could postpone the release of key economic data, including September’s nonfarm payrolls, and disrupt broader economic activity if unresolved. The last partial federal shutdown in late 2018 to early 2019 lasted 35 days, and the Congressional Budget Office estimated it reduced U.S. GDP by roughly $11 billion.

Silver and Platinum Hit Multi-Year Highs

Precious metals broadly advanced on Monday, with silver and platinum outperforming gold. Spot silver jumped over 2% to $47.1765/oz, a 14-year high, while spot platinum rallied 3.2% to $1,626.06/oz, marking its highest level in more than 12 years.

A weaker U.S. dollar and market expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts further fueled the gains. August PCE price index data, released Friday, supported the notion of rate cuts despite core inflation remaining above the Fed’s 2% annual target.

Markets are currently pricing in a 91.9% probability of a 25-basis-point rate cut in October and a 64.2% chance of an additional 25-basis-point reduction in December, according to CME FedWatch data.

Expectations of further rate easing have also boosted industrial metals. London Metal Exchange copper futures rose 0.6% to $10,276.45 per ton, while COMEX copper gained 1.3% to $4.8065 per pound.

This content is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or other professional advice. It should not be considered a recommendation to buy or sell any securities or financial instruments. All investments involve risk, including the potential loss of principal. Past performance is not indicative of future results. You should conduct your own research and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions.

Oil prices fell on Monday following the restart of crude shipments from Iraq’s semi-autonomous Kurdistan region to Turkey over the weekend, along with OPEC+ signaling plans for an additional production increase in November, adding further supply to global markets.

As of 06:30 GMT, Brent crude futures were down 43 cents, or 0.6%, at $69.70 a barrel, after hitting a high last Friday not seen since July 31. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude declined 49 cents, or 0.8%, to $65.23 a barrel, giving back much of Friday’s gains.

“Ongoing fears of production increase are limiting gains, but a tight near term outlook has crude prices in a vice as the trading week begins,” said Michael McCarthy, CEO of investor platform Moomoo Australia and New Zealand.

According to Iraq’s oil ministry, crude flowed on Saturday from Kurdistan to Turkey through a pipeline for the first time in two and a half years, following an interim agreement that broke a long-standing deadlock. The deal between Iraq’s federal government, the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG), and foreign oil operators in the region will allow 180,000 to 190,000 barrels per day to reach Turkey’s Ceyhan port, the Iraqi oil minister told Kurdish broadcaster Rudaw on Friday.

The United States had pressed for the export resumption, which is expected to gradually bring up to 230,000 barrels per day of crude back to international markets at a time when OPEC+ is raising production to expand market share.

Sources familiar with discussions said OPEC+ is likely to approve at least a 137,000 bpd increase in crude output at its meeting on Sunday, as rising oil prices encourage the group to further reclaim market share. Despite this, OPEC+ has been producing roughly 500,000 bpd below its target, challenging expectations of an oversupplied market.

“As OPEC prepares to further draw down its spare capacity, the risk of an October geopolitical surprise continues to rise,” RBC Capital Markets analysts said. They added: “While the dominant summer narrative has been the Q4 2025 oversupply story, market participants are starting to factor in the accelerating wake-up risk posed by the ongoing Russia and Iran conflicts.”

Last week, Brent and WTI posted their largest weekly gains since June, rising more than 4%, as drone strikes by Ukraine on Russian energy infrastructure reduced the country’s fuel exports. Russia launched one of its most sustained attacks on Kyiv and other areas of Ukraine early Sunday since the full-scale invasion began.

Meanwhile, the United Nations reinstated an arms embargo and additional sanctions on Iran over its nuclear program, following European-led actions that Tehran warned would provoke a severe response.

This content is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or other professional advice. It should not be considered a recommendation to buy or sell any securities or financial instruments. All investments involve risk, including the potential loss of principal. Past performance is not indicative of future results. You should conduct your own research and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions.

European equity markets moved higher on Monday as traders prepared for a week filled with key economic reports and the possibility of a U.S. federal government shutdown.

By 08:00 GMT, the pan-European Stoxx 600 had risen 0.3%, Germany’s Dax and France’s CAC 40 each gained 0.1%, while the U.K.’s FTSE 100 climbed 0.5%.

Shares of Britain’s GSK (LSE:GSK) jumped more than 3%, lifting the broader health care sector, following the announcement that CEO Emma Walmsley will step down. Walmsley is set to be replaced by Luke Miels in January. AstraZeneca (LSE:AZN) also saw its stock rise after the company confirmed it will maintain its London listing and headquarters while listing shares directly on the New York Stock Exchange rather than through depositary receipts.

Technology and industrial goods sectors were among the best performers during Monday’s session.

Market attention is now turning to the release of September’s nonfarm payrolls report on Friday, which could offer insight into the U.S. labor market. Policymakers at the Federal Reserve have emphasized the importance of a cooling employment picture, noting that recent rate cuts of 25 basis points prioritized slowing employment over persistent inflation. Fed projections indicate that several members anticipate additional rate reductions before year-end, as lower rates can encourage investment and hiring, though they carry the risk of pushing prices higher.

Economists expect 51,000 new jobs in September, up from 22,000 in August, with the unemployment rate forecast to remain at 4.3%. Analysts suggest that strong payroll data could influence the Fed to adopt a more gradual approach to further rate cuts.

Concerns remain that a potential U.S. government shutdown this week could delay the publication of the jobs report. Congress faces a deadline to approve a stopgap funding bill before the fiscal year ends Tuesday. If a deal is not reached, the federal government would enter its 15th partial shutdown since 1981. While Republicans control both chambers, some Democratic votes are needed to pass the legislation. Democrats have rejected short-term proposals, demanding that any bill reverse Republican cuts to health care programs. Lawmakers from both parties are scheduled to meet President Donald Trump on Monday. Speaking to Reuters over the weekend, Trump said he has “the impression” that Democrats may want to reach an agreement.

Gold Hits Record High

Gold surged above $3,800 per ounce, driven by safe-haven demand amid government shutdown concerns and expectations that the Fed will continue cutting interest rates. By 04:13 ET, spot gold was up 1.5% at $3,814.91/oz, while futures rose 0.9% to $3,844.50/oz.

Meanwhile, oil prices eased, pressured by the resumption of crude exports from Iraq’s Kurdistan region via Turkey after a 2½-year halt and plans for additional OPEC+ production increases in November. Brent crude futures fell 1.1% to $68.46 a barrel by 04:08 ET, and West Texas Intermediate crude declined 1.3% to $64.87 per barrel.

This content is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or other professional advice. It should not be considered a recommendation to buy or sell any securities or financial instruments. All investments involve risk, including the potential loss of principal. Past performance is not indicative of future results. You should conduct your own research and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions.

U.S. stock futures edged higher ahead of a trading week packed with crucial economic releases and the looming risk of a federal government shutdown. Investors are watching closely for September’s nonfarm payrolls report, which could shed light on the state of the American labor market and influence the Federal Reserve’s policy stance in the coming months. Analysts, however, caution that a potential shutdown might delay the release of these numbers. Meanwhile, Carnival Corp is set to report earnings, and gold continues to hit new record levels.

Futures on the Rise

On Monday, U.S. stock futures pointed upward as traders anticipated the jobs report and weighed the implications of a possible government shutdown. By 02:56 ET, Dow futures were up 161 points (0.4%), S&P 500 futures gained 27 points (0.4%), and Nasdaq 100 futures rose 124 points (0.5%).

Last week, the main indices ended in positive territory following U.S. inflation data that broadly met expectations. However, all three benchmarks finished lower for the week, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite snapping three-week winning streaks.

Jobs Report Under Scrutiny

Market attention is now turning to Friday’s nonfarm payrolls release for September, which could provide insights into U.S. employment trends. A softer jobs picture has been a key focus for the Fed, which cut interest rates by 25 basis points earlier this month and emphasized that slowing employment may take priority over persistent inflation.

Federal Reserve projections also indicate that many policymakers expect additional rate cuts before year-end. While lower rates can stimulate hiring and investment, they also carry the risk of higher inflation. Economists forecast an increase of 51,000 jobs in September, up from 22,000 in August, with the unemployment rate expected to hold at 4.3%.

Observers note that, given elevated inflation, a strong jobs report might lead the Fed to pace future rate cuts more cautiously. Analysts at ING warned that the broader jobs market “looks ominous,” adding that this is partly because “consumers themselves […] noticing that hiring conditions are deteriorating.”

Government Shutdown Concerns

Adding to market uncertainty is the potential for a U.S. government shutdown this week, which could delay the jobs report. Congress faces a Tuesday deadline to pass a stopgap funding bill, or the federal government could enter its 15th partial shutdown since 1981.

Republicans control both chambers, but support from some Democrats is needed to pass the legislation. Democrats have rejected a short-term proposal, demanding any bill reverse Republican reductions to healthcare programs. Leaders from both parties are scheduled to meet President Donald Trump on Monday. Speaking to Reuters over the weekend, Trump said he has “the impression” that Democrats may want to reach an agreement.

Carnival Earnings in Spotlight

Carnival Corp (NYSE:CCL) leads the week’s corporate earnings, as investors gauge the performance of the cruise industry amid rising consumer interest in travel experiences. Many consumers, cautious about broader economic uncertainty, are opting to spend on cruises rather than land-based vacations, driving Carnival’s margins to their highest in nearly 20 years during Q2.

The Holland America and Princess operator raised its annual profit outlook in June, highlighting “remarkable resilience amid heightened volatility.” Analysts also noted that favorable exchange rates have boosted the company’s second-half forecast. Carnival shares, which Bloomberg consensus estimates expect to report third-quarter EPS of $1.32, have climbed more than 22% this year.

Gold Hits Record High

Gold surged past $3,800 an ounce as investors sought safe-haven assets amid shutdown concerns. Expectations of further Fed rate cuts also underpinned bullion, which tends to perform well during periods of lower rates or heightened economic and geopolitical uncertainty.

By 03:34 ET, spot gold had jumped 1.4% to $3,810.85/oz, while futures rose 0.8% to $3,839.10/oz. Broader metals also advanced, supported by a weaker dollar after last week’s inflation data kept markets betting on additional rate cuts before the end of 2025.

This content is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or other professional advice. It should not be considered a recommendation to buy or sell any securities or financial instruments. All investments involve risk, including the potential loss of principal. Past performance is not indicative of future results. You should conduct your own research and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions.

Gulf Keystone Petroleum Ltd. (LSE:GKP) announced the restart of crude exports from its Shaikan Field via the Iraq-Türkiye Pipeline, with full production capacity expected shortly. The resumption supports the company’s 2025 production targets and strengthens its regional market position.

The company’s outlook reflects strong financial stability and favorable technical indicators, though high valuations and geopolitical risks remain considerations. Effective management of operational challenges and continued profitability growth will be crucial for future performance.

About Gulf Keystone Petroleum

Gulf Keystone Petroleum Ltd. is an independent oil and gas operator and producer in the Kurdistan Region of Iraq, focused on exploration and production activities.

This content is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or other professional advice. It should not be considered a recommendation to buy or sell any securities or financial instruments. All investments involve risk, including the potential loss of principal. Past performance is not indicative of future results. You should conduct your own research and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions.

Orosur Mining Inc. (LSE:OMI) announced its full-year 2025 results, highlighting operational progress and financial achievements. The company completed the acquisition of Minera Monte Aguila S.A.S., gaining full ownership of the Anzá Gold Project in Colombia, where a promising drilling program is underway. In Argentina, Orosur finalized the first phase of its exploration joint venture at the El Pantano Project, securing a 51% stake and preparing for further development.

Financially, Orosur strengthened its cash position through multiple fundraisings, enabling continued investment in its core gold and copper projects across South America.

About Orosur Mining

Orosur Mining Inc. is a mining and exploration company focused on gold and copper projects in Colombia, Argentina, and Uruguay. Its flagship asset is the Anzá Gold Project in Colombia, with a strategy centered on advancing high-potential exploration and development opportunities.

This content is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or other professional advice. It should not be considered a recommendation to buy or sell any securities or financial instruments. All investments involve risk, including the potential loss of principal. Past performance is not indicative of future results. You should conduct your own research and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions.

Tern Plc (LSE:TERN) has announced an Open Offer to raise up to £642,486 by issuing up to 128,497,293 shares at 0.50p each. The initiative allows existing shareholders to participate proportionally to their current holdings. The offer is not underwritten, and trading of the new shares on AIM is expected to begin on 16 October 2025.

The fundraising supports Tern’s focus on cost control and operational efficiency amid a challenging macroeconomic environment for early-stage technology ventures. While immediate exit opportunities for its portfolio companies remain limited, management remains optimistic about their longer-term progress.

About Tern Plc

Tern Plc is an investment company focused on creating value from Internet of Things (IoT) technology businesses. The company aims to maximise the value of its portfolio companies and investments, targeting successful exits that deliver strong returns for shareholders.

This content is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or other professional advice. It should not be considered a recommendation to buy or sell any securities or financial instruments. All investments involve risk, including the potential loss of principal. Past performance is not indicative of future results. You should conduct your own research and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions.

Ariana Resources (LSE:AAU) posted a profit before tax of £0.2 million for H1 2025, largely supported by its 23.5% stake in Zenit Madencilik in Türkiye. The company completed construction of the Tavşan mine processing plant and is awaiting final approvals to commence commercial production. Ariana’s dual listing on the ASX raised A$11 million, enhancing both financial flexibility and market visibility.

The company is also progressing its Dokwe Gold Project in Zimbabwe, with increased resource estimates and ongoing exploration activity. Strategic partnerships, including collaboration with Newmont Mining Corporation, continue to support Ariana’s growth and development initiatives across its portfolio.

About Ariana Resources

Ariana Resources PLC is an exploration and development company with gold-focused assets in Africa and Europe. Its strategy emphasizes advancing mining operations and expanding its resource base through exploration and strategic partnerships.

This content is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or other professional advice. It should not be considered a recommendation to buy or sell any securities or financial instruments. All investments involve risk, including the potential loss of principal. Past performance is not indicative of future results. You should conduct your own research and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions.

Rockhopper Exploration (LSE:RKH) announced its half-year 2025 results, reporting a successful capital raise of up to $140 million to fund the initial phase of the Sea Lion oil field development. The company has met its base equity requirement and remains confident in achieving the Final Investment Decision (FID) by year-end. An independent resource assessment highlights the significant potential of Sea Lion, with valuations reaching up to $2.3 billion at higher oil prices.

Additionally, Rockhopper received €31 million in insurance proceeds following the annulment of the Ombrina Mare Arbitration Award and is continuing its strategic exit from Italian operations to focus on its Falklands assets.

About Rockhopper Exploration

Rockhopper Exploration plc is an oil and gas company with a primary focus on the North Falkland Basin. Operating offshore the Falkland Islands since 2004, the company is advancing the Sea Lion oil field, a high-potential asset with substantial resources.

This content is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or other professional advice. It should not be considered a recommendation to buy or sell any securities or financial instruments. All investments involve risk, including the potential loss of principal. Past performance is not indicative of future results. You should conduct your own research and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions.