Author: Fiona Craig

Oil prices moved lower in Asian trading on Friday after the United States and Iran agreed to keep negotiations ongoing over Tehran’s nuclear program, while investors also assessed the implications of increasing Venezuelan crude exports for global supply levels.

Brent crude futures for April delivery declined 0.4% to $70.48 per barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate futures fell 0.5% to $64.92 per barrel as of 20:15 ET (01:15 GMT).

Both benchmarks were modestly lower for February overall, as geopolitical supply concerns were balanced by expectations of higher global output and mounting worries about softer demand.

U.S.–Iran talks end without breakthrough, technical discussions to follow

Negotiations between Washington and Tehran over Iran’s nuclear ambitions concluded Thursday without a finalized agreement.

Nevertheless, both parties indicated that discussions would continue, with mediator Oman confirming that technical-level talks are scheduled to take place next week in Vienna.

Developments involving Iran were a key influence on oil markets throughout February, particularly after the United States expanded its military presence in the Middle East and warned of potential action should diplomacy fail.

“Oil supply could be anywhere between 10mb/d lower or 1mb/d higher than current levels, depending on the outcome of current peace talks,” ANZ analysts said in a note.

“However, the Strait of Hormuz is the focus. Anything short of sustained disruption to oil supplies in that waterway would likely see only temporary rallies in the oil price,” ANZ analysts added, noting that the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries could increase production to counter any supply interruptions.

The Strait of Hormuz remains a critical global shipping route, with Iran controlling part of its northern shoreline. Any escalation involving the country could disrupt oil flows through the passage, which handles a substantial portion of worldwide crude shipments.

Venezuelan crude exports expected to increase under U.S. arrangement

Oil shipments under a recently agreed supply framework between the United States and Venezuela are projected to total about $2 billion by the end of February, according to U.S. officials.

The agreement follows Washington’s assumption of control over Venezuela’s oil export operations earlier this year after U.S. forces captured President Nicolás Maduro, enabling a ramp-up in production and exports.

Since then, Venezuela has increased domestic output, while major commodity traders including Vitol and Trafigura have taken leading roles in marketing the country’s crude. Buyers across Asia and Europe — including major importer India — are expected to receive Venezuelan cargoes in the coming weeks.

The re-entry of Venezuelan barrels into international markets represents a meaningful increase in global supply, a development that could place downward pressure on crude prices in the months ahead. Concerns about a potential oversupply in 2026 have already weighed on oil markets in recent months.

Gold prices were broadly stable during Asian trading on Friday and remained on track for solid monthly advances, supported by continued safe-haven demand amid elevated geopolitical risks and lingering economic uncertainty.

Ongoing disruptions tied to U.S. trade policy, together with concerns about slowing growth across major global economies, kept investors positioned defensively and helped bullion recover most of the losses recorded toward the end of January.

Renewed geopolitical tensions also contributed to demand after conflict broke out between Pakistan and Afghanistan, although hostilities have so far remained confined to the region.

Gold set for strong February performance after recovering January losses

Spot gold traded little changed at $5,187.18 per ounce as of 00:12 ET (05:12 GMT), while April gold futures gained 0.2% to $5,203.61 per ounce.

The metal has risen about 6.7% in February, rebounding sharply from early-month lows after a speculative rally unwound quickly at the start of the period.

Spot prices had fallen to roughly $4,600 per ounce in early February before beginning a steady recovery.

Escalating tensions surrounding Iran played a key role in gold’s rebound, as the United States increased its military deployment in the Middle East and warned of possible action if Tehran refused a nuclear agreement.

Talks between Washington and Tehran concluded this week without a breakthrough, although both sides agreed to continue negotiations, supporting cautious optimism that a deal could eventually emerge.

Uncertainty surrounding the U.S. economic outlook also lifted gold, particularly after a U.S. Supreme Court ruling invalidated most of President Donald Trump’s trade tariffs.

Trump responded by announcing plans for new tariffs under an alternative legal framework and warning of additional levies, leaving markets wary of further economic disruption.

Other precious metals also advanced on Friday and were positioned for strong monthly gains. Spot silver climbed 1.7% to $89.7785 per ounce, bringing February gains to around 6%, while spot platinum rose 3% to $2,351.63 per ounce and was up 8.4% for the month.

Copper posts modest February rise as markets watch China demand outlook

Among industrial metals, copper prices edged higher on Friday and were set for modest monthly gains as traders awaited clearer signals from China, the world’s largest copper importer.

Benchmark copper futures on the London Metal Exchange rose 0.2% to $13,333.0 per ton and were up approximately 1.2% for February.

COMEX copper futures increased 0.4% to $6.0480 per pound, leaving the contract about 1.1% higher for the month.

Copper’s relatively subdued performance during February was largely attributed to reduced trading activity during China’s Lunar New Year holiday, when mainland markets were closed for more than a week.

ANZ analysts noted that copper inventories in China increased more than expected during the holiday period, while global stockpiles also rose amid disruptions to mining activity and trade flows.

With Chinese markets reopening this week, attention has shifted toward renewed purchasing activity. Copper demand is expected to strengthen in coming quarters as investment tied to artificial intelligence infrastructure accelerates.

Bitcoin (COIN:BTCUSD) slipped on Friday, giving up recent gains as a fragile risk environment continued to weigh on sentiment. The world’s largest cryptocurrency is now on course to record a fifth consecutive month of notable losses.

The broader crypto market largely mirrored Bitcoin’s weakness, with digital assets also heading toward steep February declines as both institutional and retail investors remained cautious toward the asset class.

Bitcoin was down nearly 1% at $67,788.0 as of 00:48 ET.

Bitcoin facing fifth straight month of losses

Bitcoin has fallen roughly 14% so far in February, highlighting persistent risk aversion across crypto markets that has shown little sign of easing during the month.

Elevated geopolitical tensions, ongoing uncertainty surrounding major global economies, and concerns over potential disruptions linked to U.S. trade tariffs have discouraged investors from allocating capital to speculative assets such as cryptocurrencies.

Earlier this month, Bitcoin had dropped as much as 50% from its October record high before staging a modest rebound.

Despite that recovery, the cryptocurrency remains locked in a broader downward trend that began after October, with buying activity from major corporate holder Strategy doing little to halt the decline.

Strategy has also slowed its pace of Bitcoin accumulation in recent months amid growing concerns that continued price weakness could force the company to sell part of its holdings to service debt obligations.

MARA Holdings jumps as AI pivot overshadows weak earnings

Shares of MARA Holdings, formerly Marathon Digital (NASDAQ:MARA), rallied sharply Thursday evening after the Bitcoin miner announced a partnership with Starwood Capital to repurpose portions of its mining infrastructure into artificial intelligence data centers.

MARA shares surged as much as 17% in after-hours trading.

The AI-related announcement overshadowed a $1.7 billion fourth-quarter loss, reflecting the impact of sustained weakness in Bitcoin prices that has significantly pressured mining profitability.

Revenue also came in below expectations. Facing declining crypto prices alongside growing enthusiasm for artificial intelligence, MARA has increasingly sought to pivot toward deploying its computing capacity for AI data center operations instead of crypto mining.

Crypto market today: altcoins lose momentum, February losses deepen

The wider cryptocurrency market declined again on Friday following a brief recovery earlier in the week, leaving many tokens on track for sizeable monthly losses.

Ether, the second-largest cryptocurrency, fell 1.2% to $2,038.21 and was set to drop nearly 17% in February. The token faced additional pressure after founder Vitalik Buterin sold more of his holdings, reinforcing cautious market sentiment.

XRP declined 2.3% and was on pace for a roughly 15% monthly loss, while BNB traded little changed on Friday but remained down nearly 20% for the month.

Solana has fallen about 17% in February, while Cardano traded broadly flat. Among meme tokens, Dogecoin and $TRUMP were down 5.4% and 20%, respectively, over the month.

Just Group (LSE:JUST) reported a significant fall in annual earnings on Friday, with results impacted by weaker margins on new business and reduced sales in its retirement income segment.

Underlying operating profit declined 39% to £305 million for the year ended 31 December, compared with £504 million in the previous year. Adjusted profit before tax also fell sharply, dropping to £120 million from £482 million, reflecting softer core operating performance.

“During 2025, our proactive approach to managing our capital resources, pricing discipline and risk selection meant that we deliberately reduced volume in what was an increasingly competitive Defined Benefit de-risking (“DB”) market,” said David Richardson, CEO of Just Group.

“Industry analysts expect a rebound in the DB market in 2026, driven by renewed demand from sponsors and trustees, and our own pipeline supports this outlook. In addition, the retail guaranteed income market offers significant long-term growth potential in the decades ahead,” he added.

Sales within the Retirement Income division fell 18% year on year to £4.3 billion, down from £5.3 billion previously.

Margins on new business narrowed to 5.7%, compared with 8.7% in 2024, as competition intensified — particularly in the Defined Benefit market during the second half of 2025 — alongside tighter pricing spreads, lower transaction volumes and a less favourable product mix.

Despite the earnings decline, tangible net assets increased to £2.7 billion from £2.6 billion, representing growth of 37% over the past three years.

The company also confirmed that it agreed in late July to a £2.4 billion ($3.23 billion) acquisition by Canada-based Brookfield Wealth Solutions, with completion expected during the first half of 2026.