ADVFN UK Market News

Author: Fiona Craig

  • French drinks stocks retreat as China signals potential tariffs on EU alcohol

    French drinks stocks retreat as China signals potential tariffs on EU alcohol

    Shares of French spirits producers Pernod Ricard (EU:RI) and Rémy Cointreau (EU:RCO) declined on Wednesday after fresh data confirmed another year of falling wine and spirits exports, while China hinted at possible additional trade action targeting European alcoholic beverages.

    New figures showed that France’s wine and spirits exports dropped for a third consecutive year, with volumes falling to their lowest level in more than 20 years. Shipments to China recorded a steep decline, and exports to the United States also weakened.

    Yuyuan Tantian – a social media account linked to Chinese state broadcaster CCTV – reported that China could open investigations into French wine or introduce “reciprocal tariffs” on certain EU goods if France urges the European Union to impose new tariffs on Chinese imports.

    The comments followed the publication of a French government policy paper on Monday suggesting the EU consider a blanket 30% tariff on Chinese goods or a 30% depreciation of the euro against the renminbi as a response to rising imports.

    Beijing has already initiated anti-dumping probes into European brandy, including products shipped by Pernod Ricard and Rémy Cointreau. Earlier stages of the investigation saw provisional duties applied to selected European spirits.

    France remains the top exporter of cognac to China, with the country representing a key destination for its high-end spirits sales.

  • Upbeat Jobs Report Signals Potential Rebound for U.S. Markets: Dow Jones, S&P, Nasdaq, Wall Street Futures

    Upbeat Jobs Report Signals Potential Rebound for U.S. Markets: Dow Jones, S&P, Nasdaq, Wall Street Futures

    U.S. stock futures were trading higher early Wednesday, pointing to a positive start on Wall Street after a muted and directionless session the day before.

    The move comes in response to fresh data from the Labor Department showing that job growth in January significantly outpaced expectations.

    Nonfarm payrolls increased by 130,000 last month, following a downward revision to December’s figure, which now shows a gain of 48,000 jobs.

    Forecasters had anticipated an increase of 70,000 positions, compared with the originally reported 50,000 for December.

    Meanwhile, the unemployment rate ticked down to 4.3% from 4.4%, defying expectations that it would remain unchanged.

    The stronger-than-expected employment figures may boost confidence in the resilience of the U.S. economy, though they could also dampen hopes for imminent interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve.

    Attention now turns to Friday’s release of consumer price index data, which may provide further insight into the direction of monetary policy.

    On Tuesday, markets struggled to gain traction after two prior days of gains. The Dow Jones Industrial Average briefly touched a new intraday record, but broader indices failed to build sustained momentum.

    At the close, the Dow rose 52.27 points, or 0.1%, to 50,188.13. In contrast, the S&P 500 declined 23.01 points, or 0.3%, to 6,941.81, and the Nasdaq Composite fell 136.20 points, or 0.6%, to 23,102.47.

    The lack of conviction reflected investor caution ahead of the monthly jobs release.

    Traders also largely dismissed a Commerce Department report showing retail sales were unexpectedly flat in December.

    Retail activity showed virtually no change after a 0.6% increase in November, missing projections for a 0.4% gain.

    Excluding motor vehicles and parts, sales were similarly stagnant following a 0.4% rise the previous month. Economists had looked for a 0.3% increase.

    “The December retail sales report shows that consumers paused their spending at the end of the holiday season after a strong spending spree in October and November,” said Nationwide Chief Economist Kathy Bostjancic.

    She added, “The stagnant retail sales in December provides a soft hand-off to Q1 consumer spending, but we look for a surge in tax refunds, estimated to be $50 billion higher than last year, and the still strong wealth effect will buoy consumer spending in Q1 and support solid GDP growth.”

    In separate data, import prices edged higher in December, in line with market expectations.

    Housing-related stocks led gains as Treasury yields declined, pushing the Philadelphia Housing Sector Index up 3.4% to its highest close in five months.

    Other rate-sensitive sectors also advanced, with the Dow Jones Utility Average climbing 1.9% and the Dow Jones U.S. Real Estate Index rising 1.3%.

    On the downside, brokerage shares retreated sharply, sending the NYSE Arca Broker/Dealer Index down 2.5% after reaching a record high in the prior session.

    Technology hardware, airline, and oil services stocks also posted notable losses during the day.

  • European markets mixed as tech weighs; earnings drive stock moves: DAX, CAC, FTSE100

    European markets mixed as tech weighs; earnings drive stock moves: DAX, CAC, FTSE100

    European equities traded in mixed fashion on Wednesday, with investors reacting to a fresh wave of corporate earnings. Technology names faced selling pressure after Dassault flagged ongoing weakness in the European automotive sector.

    The U.K.’s FTSE 100 Index advanced 0.8%, while France’s CAC 40 hovered around flat levels. Germany’s DAX Index slipped 0.3%.

    Among individual movers, TotalEnergies (EU:TTE) gained 1.3% after the energy group lifted its final 2025 dividend by 5.6% to €3.40 per share.

    In contrast, software company Dassault Systemes (EU:DSY) plunged 20% following weaker-than-expected fourth-quarter results and a subdued outlook for the year ahead.

    Dutch recruitment specialist Randstad (EU:RAND) dropped 8.5% after issuing cautious guidance for the first quarter.

    Supermarket operator Ahold Delhaize (EU:AD) climbed 7% as its fourth-quarter earnings topped market forecasts.

    Heineken (EU:HEIA) rose 5.3% despite announcing plans to cut up to 6,000 jobs globally as it navigates a challenging demand environment.

    German bank Commerzbank (TG:CBK) fell 3%, even after posting a record €4.5 billion operating result for the 2025 fiscal year.

    Siemens Energy (TG:SIE) rallied 6% after reporting that first-quarter profit nearly tripled, supported by strong AI-related demand for gas turbines and grid infrastructure equipment.

    Thyssenkrupp Nucera (TG:NCH2), a producer of electrolysers, edged up 1.1% after reaffirming its FY26 guidance.

    Swiss elevator manufacturer Schindler Holding (TG:SHR) slid 8% after forecasting low- to mid-single-digit revenue growth in local currencies for 2026.

    In London, engineering firm Renishaw (LSE:RSW) advanced 2.7% on stronger-than-expected half-year figures.

    Housebuilder Barratt Redrow (LSE:BTRW) declined 6.3% after reporting first-half profits that missed expectations.

    Meanwhile, shares of London Stock Exchange Group (LSE:LSEG) rose 2.5% amid reports that activist investor Elliott Management has taken a sizable position in the company.

  • Oil edges higher as U.S.–Iran uncertainty lingers and Indian demand improves

    Oil edges higher as U.S.–Iran uncertainty lingers and Indian demand improves

    Oil prices climbed on Wednesday, supported by persistent geopolitical tension surrounding delicate negotiations between the United States and Iran, while improving demand from India and signs of a shrinking supply surplus also lent support.

    Brent crude futures rose 57 cents, or 0.83%, to $69.37 a barrel by 0711 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude gained 56 cents, or 0.88%, to $64.52.

    “Oil retains a bullish tail-risk bid as US-Iran talks continue but remain fragile, keeping the Strait of Hormuz risk premium supported amid ongoing sanctions pressure, tariff threats tied to Iranian trade, and heightened U.S. regional military posture,” LSEG analysts said in a report.

    Iran’s foreign ministry spokesperson said Tuesday that recent nuclear discussions with Washington allowed Tehran to evaluate the seriousness of the U.S. stance and revealed enough common ground to maintain diplomatic engagement.

    Officials from Iran and the United States met in Oman last week in an attempt to revive negotiations, after President Donald Trump deployed naval forces to the region — a move that raised concerns about potential military escalation.

    Prices initially dipped after Oman’s foreign minister described the talks as productive. However, sentiment shifted after reports suggested the U.S. could send a second aircraft carrier to the Middle East if negotiations fail, according to ANZ analysts.

    Trump confirmed on Tuesday that he is considering dispatching another carrier, even as both sides prepare to resume talks aimed at avoiding renewed conflict.

    Beyond geopolitical risks, supply fundamentals also provided support. The market has been gradually absorbing excess crude that accumulated in the final quarter of 2025.

    “With mainstream oil on water returning to normal levels and demand for it in India rising, oil prices are likely to remain supported in the near term,” said Xavier Tang, a market analyst at Vortexa.

    Indian refiners are reportedly curbing purchases of Russian crude as New Delhi seeks to finalize a trade agreement with Washington, leading to higher imports from the Middle East and West Africa.

    Investors are also watching for weekly U.S. inventory figures from the Energy Information Administration.

    A Reuters survey showed analysts expect crude stockpiles to have increased by around 800,000 barrels in the week to February 6, while distillate and gasoline inventories are seen falling by roughly 1.3 million and 400,000 barrels, respectively.

    Separate data from the American Petroleum Institute indicated that U.S. crude inventories surged by 13.4 million barrels in the same week, according to market sources.

  • Gold, silver rebound on weak U.S. retail sales; labor data in spotlight

    Gold, silver rebound on weak U.S. retail sales; labor data in spotlight

    Gold and silver prices moved higher in Asian trading on Wednesday after softer-than-expected U.S. retail sales figures reinforced views that economic momentum may be slowing. Investors are now awaiting the latest U.S. payrolls data for clearer direction.

    While precious metals have posted gains this week, trading has remained volatile following a sharp retreat from record highs set in late January. Even with a weaker dollar and softer economic readings, bullion has struggled to stage a sustained recovery. Meanwhile, ongoing geopolitical uncertainty in the Middle East has failed to significantly boost safe-haven demand.

    Spot gold climbed 0.6% to $5,052.11 per ounce, while April gold futures rose 0.9% to $5,076.40 as of 01:02 ET (06:02 GMT). Prices remain roughly $600 below their recent peak levels.

    Spot silver gained 1.7% to $82.1375 per ounce, and platinum advanced 2.1% to $2,130.63 per ounce.

    Softer data pressures dollar, supports metals

    Gold and other precious metals slipped modestly on Tuesday but rebounded after U.S. December retail sales came in below expectations.

    Analysts at ANZ said gold’s earlier rally had stalled amid concerns the metal had “run too hard, too fast.”

    “With speculative positioning now largely washed out of the market, traders are looking for the next catalyst for another run higher. Weak economic data in the US prompted some buying,” ANZ analysts added.

    The retail sales figures suggested that consumer spending in the U.S. is beginning to cool, against a backdrop of persistent inflation and strains in the labor market. Continued softness in spending could weigh on overall economic growth.

    Expectations that the Federal Reserve might respond with further rate cuts later this year pushed U.S. Treasury yields lower, while the dollar struggled to regain ground after earlier losses. The dollar index slipped another 0.2% in Asian trading.

    Payrolls and inflation data ahead

    Markets are now focused on the upcoming nonfarm payrolls report, which may provide a clearer picture of labor market conditions. Signs of ongoing weakness would likely fuel speculation about additional monetary easing.

    Lower interest rates generally favor gold and other non-yielding assets by reducing the opportunity cost of holding them.

    However, uncertainty over the Fed’s policy path remains elevated, particularly after President Donald Trump nominated Kevin Warsh as the next central bank chair. Warsh is widely viewed as less dovish, a perception that has weighed on metals since late January.

    Beyond payrolls, attention will also turn to Friday’s consumer price index data. Labor market trends and inflation remain the Federal Reserve’s primary considerations in setting interest rates.

  • Bitcoin slips under $67,000 ahead of U.S. payrolls report

    Bitcoin slips under $67,000 ahead of U.S. payrolls report

    Bitcoin (COIN:BTCUSD) moved lower in Wednesday’s Asian session, falling back beneath the $67,000 level as traders positioned cautiously before the release of U.S. employment data that could influence expectations for Federal Reserve policy.

    The world’s largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization was down 2.6% at $67,126.7 as of 02:46 ET (07:46 GMT).

    Although Bitcoin recently rebounded from last week’s slide toward $60,000, it has struggled to hold gains above the $70,000 mark, highlighting ongoing volatility and hesitant investor sentiment across the digital asset space.

    Payrolls report takes center stage

    Markets are awaiting the January U.S. nonfarm payrolls report, which was delayed due to a brief government shutdown last week.

    Economists project that approximately 70,000 jobs were added in January, with the unemployment rate expected to remain steady at around 4.4%.

    Investors are also preparing for Friday’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) release, which may offer additional clues about inflation trends and the likely timing of any future Fed rate adjustments.

    Data from the CME FedWatch tool suggest that traders broadly expect the Federal Reserve to keep interest rates unchanged until June, following three consecutive cuts late last year.

    Ordinarily, expectations of lower interest rates tend to support risk-oriented assets such as cryptocurrencies, since declining yields reduce the appeal of holding cash and fixed-income instruments. However, this time Bitcoin has failed to mount a sustained rally despite easing policy, with analysts pointing to tighter liquidity conditions, diminished institutional flows, and cooling speculative demand as key headwinds.

    Robinhood pressured by crypto slowdown

    Shares of Robinhood Markets, Inc. (NASDAQ:HOOD) fell sharply in extended trading after the brokerage reported quarterly results that missed Wall Street forecasts, largely due to weaker cryptocurrency trading activity.

    The company posted fourth-quarter revenue of roughly $1.28 billion, below analysts’ expectations of $1.40 billion. A steep drop in crypto-related revenue offset strength in stock and options trading.

    Robinhood’s stock declined more than 8% in after-hours dealings.

    Altcoins extend losses; XRP down 4%

    Losses were not limited to Bitcoin. Major alternative cryptocurrencies also trended lower amid the cautious tone.

    Ethereum, the second-largest token, fell 2.7% to $1,952.92.

    XRP, the third-largest cryptocurrency by market value, dropped 4% to $1.36.

    Solana and Polygon each lost 4.1%, while Cardano slipped 2.5%. Meme token Dogecoin retreated by 3%.

  • U.S. payrolls awaited; Ford absorbs $900 million tariff setback – key market drivers: Dow Jones, S&P, Nasdaq, Wall Street Futures

    U.S. payrolls awaited; Ford absorbs $900 million tariff setback – key market drivers: Dow Jones, S&P, Nasdaq, Wall Street Futures

    U.S. equity futures moved modestly higher early Wednesday as investors positioned for a delayed monthly employment report and continued to digest a heavy slate of corporate earnings.

    At 02:33 ET, Dow futures were up 91 points, or 0.2%. S&P 500 futures rose 12 points, also 0.2%, while Nasdaq 100 futures added 48 points, or 0.2%.

    The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at a fresh all-time high on Tuesday, but the broader S&P 500 and the tech-focused Nasdaq Composite ended lower, weighed down in part by renewed debate over the disruptive impact of emerging artificial intelligence tools.

    Financial stocks were under pressure after wealth-management start-up Altruis unveiled an AI-powered tax planning solution. The Charles Schwab Corporation (NYSE:SCHW) slid more than 7%, while Raymond James Financial, Inc. (NYSE:RJF) posted its steepest single-day drop since the height of the 2020 pandemic turmoil.

    The weakness mirrored recent AI-driven selloffs in insurance brokers and software names, highlighting broader concerns that the fast-evolving technology could significantly reshape multiple industries. Still, some analysts argue that market anxiety may be running ahead of fundamentals.

    Soft retail sales data also dampened sentiment, prompting speculation that U.S. growth could moderate in 2026. Expectations for a more dovish Federal Reserve stance increased, with CME FedWatch indicating a rising probability of an April rate cut.

    Focus turns to U.S. jobs report

    The main event of the day is the delayed January employment report.

    Economists forecast that the U.S. economy added approximately 66,000 jobs last month, compared with 50,000 in December.

    At its latest policy meeting, the Federal Reserve described the labor market as “stabilizing” after a period of sluggishness. That assessment, combined with inflation that remains elevated but steady, led policymakers to hold interest rates in the 3.5%–3.75% range.

    Earlier this week, White House economic adviser Kevin Hassett warned that advances in artificial intelligence could weigh on job growth in the coming months, even as productivity improves.

    With uncertainty surrounding both employment trends and inflation — the Fed’s dual mandates — the outlook for 2026 remains unclear. The payrolls data, along with Friday’s consumer price index, may offer further guidance on the likely trajectory of interest rates.

    “Today’s jobs report is a pivotal event for the [foreign exchange] market. A materially weak print would likely pave the way for markets to price in a cut in April,” analysts at ING Groep N.V. said.

    Ford forecasts strong year despite tariff-related hit

    Ford Motor Company (NYSE:F) shares edged higher in extended trading after the automaker delivered profit and cash flow projections that exceeded expectations.

    Ford guided for annual operating income of about $9 billion, above the roughly $8.85 billion anticipated by analysts. It also forecast free cash flow of $5.5 billion, topping market estimates.

    However, the company reported a fourth-quarter operating loss of $11.1 billion — the largest in its history — after booking a $900 million charge tied to a delay in implementing a tariff-relief program introduced during the Trump administration.

    Chief Financial Officer Sherry House said the company was informed of the “unexpected” change “very late” in 2025.

    Takeover tensions around Warner

    Separately, developments continued in the high-profile takeover battle involving Warner Bros. Discovery, Inc. (NASDAQ:WBD).

    According to the Wall Street Journal, activist investor Ancora Holdings has accumulated a stake worth roughly $200 million and is preparing to urge Warner to reject a sweeping offer from Netflix, Inc. (NASDAQ:NFLX) for its film and television assets and HBO Max streaming service.

    The report said Ancora may argue that Warner has not sufficiently engaged with a competing proposal from Paramount Skydance, led by David Ellison, which seeks to acquire the entire company rather than selected divisions.

    Paramount has reportedly enhanced its bid by offering additional cash to Warner shareholders for each quarter the transaction remains incomplete and by covering any breakup fee associated with terminating the Netflix agreement. Nonetheless, its total offer — including debt — remains at $108.4 billion.

    Gold and oil advance

    Gold prices strengthened after weak U.S. retail sales data fueled expectations of slowing economic momentum, sharpening focus on the upcoming payrolls release.

    Spot gold rose 0.4% to $5,047.08 per ounce, while futures gained 0.8% to $5,071.34, though prices remained below recent record highs.

    Oil markets also moved higher. Brent crude climbed 1.2% to $69.64 per barrel, and U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude added 1.3% to $64.81 per barrel.

  • European equities trade mixed as investors await key U.S. payroll figures: DAX, CAC, FTSE100

    European equities trade mixed as investors await key U.S. payroll figures: DAX, CAC, FTSE100

    European markets struggled for clear direction on Wednesday morning, with investors positioning cautiously ahead of the release of closely watched U.S. labor market data later in the day.

    By 09:12 GMT, the STOXX Europe 600 was down 0.1%. Germany’s DAX slipped 0.2%, while France’s CAC 40 fell 0.4%. In contrast, the U.K.’s FTSE 100 advanced 0.4%.

    Earnings in focus across Europe

    Corporate results continued to shape trading sentiment across the region.

    Koninklijke Ahold Delhaize N.V. (EU:AD) climbed after reporting fourth-quarter net sales of €23.5 billion, representing a 6.1% increase at constant exchange rates. Comparable sales excluding fuel rose 2.5%.

    Heineken N.V. (EU:HEIA) announced plans to cut up to 6,000 jobs globally and signaled slower profit growth this year relative to 2025 amid soft demand. Shares nonetheless edged higher following the update.

    TotalEnergies SE (EU:TTE) said it would reduce share buybacks by 62% in the current quarter due to weaker oil and gas prices. Analysts broadly endorsed the company’s more cautious stance, and the stock gained 1.4%.

    In Germany, Siemens Energy AG (TG:SIE) jumped more than 5% after first-quarter net profit nearly tripled, supported by strong AI-related demand for gas turbines and grid infrastructure.

    Across the Atlantic, Ford Motor Company (NYSE:F) shares ticked up in after-hours trading after the automaker issued profit and cash flow guidance above expectations, despite absorbing a $900 million impact from a delay in tariff relief measures introduced under President Donald Trump.

    Other major U.S. names reporting Wednesday include Cisco Systems, Inc., McDonald’s Corporation, and T-Mobile US, Inc..

    Spotlight on U.S. labor market data

    Market attention is now turning to U.S. employment figures scheduled for release at 08:30 ET, following a previous delay.

    Economists expect the report to show that approximately 66,000 jobs were added in January, compared with 50,000 in December.

    At its most recent meeting, the Federal Reserve characterized the labor market as “stabilizing” after earlier signs of softness. Combined with persistently elevated — though steady — inflation, this assessment prompted policymakers to leave interest rates unchanged at 3.5% to 3.75%.

    However, White House economic adviser Kevin Hassett recently cautioned that advances in artificial intelligence could weigh on job growth in the months ahead, even as productivity improves.

    The broader outlook for 2026 remains uncertain given ambiguity around both employment and inflation — the Fed’s two core mandates. In addition to the jobs report, Friday’s consumer price index data may offer further insight into the likely path of interest rates.

    “[E]quities don’t want to see a collapse in payrolls, but with Corporate America increasingly preaching about efficiencies and productivity enhancements, it’s expected that job creation will remain tepid going forward,” analysts at Vital Knowledge wrote.

    Oil rebounds amid geopolitical uncertainty

    Oil prices moved higher as traders monitored developments in U.S.–Iran relations and assessed travel demand ahead of a major Chinese holiday.

    Crude recovered part of Tuesday’s losses, aided by a softer dollar ahead of key U.S. economic releases.

    Brent futures rose 1.4% to $69.74 per barrel, while West Texas Intermediate gained 1.5% to $64.90.

    Iranian officials said nuclear talks with the U.S. had allowed Tehran to evaluate Washington’s seriousness and indicated that diplomatic engagement would continue. The comments followed discussions last week over Iran’s nuclear program, after President Trump dispatched additional warships to the Middle East.

    Although both sides cited progress, tensions resurfaced after the U.S. issued a warning to vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz. Reports also suggested that Trump is weighing the deployment of a second aircraft carrier near Iran, potentially escalating regional strains.

    The evolving situation has prompted traders to factor in a geopolitical risk premium, amid concerns that any military confrontation could disrupt Iranian oil exports.

  • FTSE 100 opens firmer as miners and energy stocks advance; sterling rebounds, LSEG gains

    FTSE 100 opens firmer as miners and energy stocks advance; sterling rebounds, LSEG gains

    UK equities moved higher at the start of Wednesday trading, outperforming major European peers that slipped into negative territory. Gains in commodity-related shares helped lift sentiment, while sterling recovered against the dollar after recent pressure linked to political uncertainty.

    Precious metals producers were among the strongest performers as gold prices climbed. Oil majors and banking stocks also added support, pushing the benchmark index upward.

    By 08:42 GMT, the blue-chip FTSE 100 was up modestly, while the pound strengthened 0.2% against the dollar to 1.3687. On the continent, Germany’s DAX fell 0.4%, with France’s CAC 40 also down 0.4%.

    UK round-up

    London Stock Exchange Group plc (LSE:LSEG) advanced in early trading after the Financial Times reported that activist investor Elliott Investment Management L.P. is assembling a “significant” position in the company. According to the report, Elliott has been engaging with management in an effort to enhance the exchange operator’s performance.

    Meanwhile, Barratt Redrow plc (LSE:BTRW), the UK’s largest homebuilder, said first-half completions surpassed market expectations. The group delivered 7,305 homes during the period, a 7% increase on a pro-forma basis year on year, ahead of analyst forecasts of roughly 6,889 units. Despite stronger volumes, profitability came in below consensus projections. The company reiterated its full-year volume guidance but flagged ongoing margin pressures.

  • LSEG rises on report of Elliott position and engagement over strategic improvements

    LSEG rises on report of Elliott position and engagement over strategic improvements

    London Stock Exchange Group plc (LSE:LSEG) shares advanced more than 2% on Wednesday following reports that Elliott Investment Management L.P. had taken a stake in the business. The move buoyed a stock that, according to analysts at Barclays plc, has been the weakest performer among Europe’s exchange operators amid rising debate about artificial intelligence and its potential effect on data and analytics revenues.

    Barclays’ sector research indicates LSEG has lagged major European peers since mid-2025, with the bank describing the recent de-rating as “overdone” in its latest review.

    The report suggests investors have concentrated heavily on headline disclosures around LSEG’s data and analytics exposure. However, Barclays points to the company’s own segmental breakdown, which implies that only around 5% of total group revenue may be susceptible to AI-driven disruption.

    That calculation stems from LSEG’s assessment that roughly 10% of revenue within each of its two largest Data & Analytics units — Workflows and Data & Feeds — could be at risk.

    Even so, Barclays notes that the shares have experienced “the most aggressive” valuation compression across the peer group, despite the relatively modest revenue exposure implied by these disclosures.

    Pressure intensified after Anthropic PBC introduced its Cowork plug-ins and rolled out Claude Opus 4.6, developments that, in Barclays’ view, revived concerns about “terminal growth and even terminal value” for LSEG’s data-centric operations.

    The decline drove LSEG to three-year lows, with its valuation — excluding its stake in Tradeweb Markets Inc. — moving closer to levels more commonly associated with traditional asset managers, a segment Barclays characterises as “previously unloved.”

    By comparison, Barclays estimates potential AI-related revenue exposure at mid- to high-single-digit percentages for Deutsche Börse AG, primarily within ESG and index services, and in the low-single-digit range for Euronext N.V., where a larger proportion of data revenues is proprietary.

    Barclays argues that LSEG’s comparatively high reliance on data and analytics — accounting for 55% of group revenue, versus 16% at Euronext and 12% at Deutsche Börse — has placed it at the centre of investor anxiety.

    The bank adds that exchange operators more broadly have absorbed much of the sector’s AI-related de-rating, even though consensus earnings expectations for LSEG through FY27 have shifted by less than 5%.

    In Barclays’ view, the recent selloff appears sentiment-driven rather than reflective of weakening fundamentals. The broker reiterates its stance that concerns are “overdone,” highlighting LSEG’s existing data-licensing partnerships with Microsoft Corporation, Rogo AI Ltd, Databricks Inc., Anthropic and OpenAI, Inc.. Under these agreements, access to LSEG’s information by AI-tool users is restricted to licensed data feeds.