U.S. stock futures pointed toward gains Tuesday as optimism grew following President Donald Trump’s announcement of a ceasefire between Israel and Iran. Despite positive market momentum, uncertainty remains about how durable the truce will be. Oil prices declined sharply after the news, while gold slipped as investors moved away from traditional safe-haven assets. Meanwhile, attention is turning to Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, who is set to testify before Congress this week amid growing criticism from Trump.
U.S. Futures Rise on Ceasefire News
Futures contracts on major U.S. indexes climbed in early trading, reflecting investor relief over the potential de-escalation in the Middle East conflict. By 3:40 a.m. ET, Dow futures had increased by 347 points (0.7%), S&P 500 futures rose 48 points (0.8%), and Nasdaq 100 futures advanced 234 points (1.0%).
The previous session on Wall Street closed higher, fueled by hopes that the U.S. military’s involvement in the recent Israel-Iran air exchanges would not escalate further. There had been significant concern that U.S. strikes on Iranian nuclear sites could spark a broader conflict threatening vital oil shipments from the region.
Iran retaliated to the U.S. attacks with missile strikes on a U.S. base in Qatar on Monday night, causing no casualties. Trump dismissed the retaliation as “weak.”
Trump Confirms Ceasefire, But Violence Continues
Trump declared that the ceasefire between Israel and Iran “is now in effect,” urging both sides to honor the truce. This statement raised hopes that the 12-day confrontation, which saw deadly air strikes on both sides, might be coming to an end.
However, Trump indicated the ceasefire might be phased in gradually, allowing some ongoing military actions to conclude. Reuters reported that an Iranian missile strike on Israel on Tuesday resulted in four deaths, while Iranian officials said an Israeli attack on northern Iran killed nine people.
Questions persist about the ceasefire’s durability. Israel, backed by the U.S. in its efforts to halt Iran’s nuclear and missile programs, agreed to pause hostilities, with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu asserting that key objectives had been met.
Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi echoed a similar stance, stating that Tehran would not continue retaliatory strikes but remains ready to respond if Israel initiates further aggression—a position Netanyahu also affirmed.
Oil Prices Drop on Reduced Tensions
Oil prices fell sharply following the ceasefire announcement as fears of disruption to Middle Eastern oil supplies eased. Traders had been watching for potential Iranian attempts to block crude shipments through the strategic Strait of Hormuz.
Although oil had spiked earlier amid these concerns, the perceived mildness of Iran’s missile response in Qatar signaled a de-escalation. By 3:16 a.m. ET, Brent crude futures had slipped 3.7% to $67.93 a barrel, and West Texas Intermediate futures fell 3.6% to $66.04 a barrel—the lowest levels since before Israel’s recent strikes on Iran. Oil prices had already dropped 9% on Monday.
Gold Declines as Investors Move Away from Safe Havens
Gold prices retreated by over 1% in European trading as geopolitical worries faded. Spot gold dropped 1.4% to $3,320.57 an ounce, touching the lowest price since June 11, while August gold futures fell 1.8% to $3,334.87 an ounce.
The ceasefire news weighed on the U.S. dollar, with the dollar index falling 0.4% to 98.06, while the euro and Japanese yen strengthened due to the oil price decline. Both the EU and Japan are net oil importers, unlike the U.S., which exports oil.
Benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury yields remained steady, after slipping slightly on Monday amid signals from a Federal Reserve official supporting a potential rate cut next month. Treasury yields typically move inversely to bond prices.
All Eyes on Powell’s Congressional Appearance
Investor focus is now shifting to Washington, where Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell is scheduled to testify before Congress over two days starting Tuesday. Markets will be closely watching his remarks on the Fed’s recent decision to hold interest rates steady and its cautious stance on future rate changes, given uncertainties related to President Trump’s aggressive trade policies.
Trump continued his public criticism of Powell on Tuesday, calling him “a very dumb, hardheaded person” on social media and urging the Fed to cut rates by “two to three points,” blaming Powell’s “incompetence” for potential economic pain.
Analysts at ING warned that any perceived change in Powell’s stance could be interpreted as the Fed yielding to political pressure, potentially triggering a significant weakening of the U.S. dollar.