Author: Fiona Craig

Distribution Finance Capital Holdings (LSE:DFCH) reported solid trading for the first quarter, with new loan originations climbing roughly 23% year on year to a record £469 million. The group’s loan book increased about 26% to £895 million, supported in part by growth from its recently introduced asset finance offering. Retail deposits also passed the £1 billion milestone for the first time since the bank received its banking licence in 2020, highlighting continued customer trust and a strong funding base.

Credit performance remained stable, with total arrears and loans in legal recovery falling to 0.6% of the loan book. Non-performing loans declined compared with the end of 2025, both in the number of cases and the total balance outstanding. Management said that despite ongoing macroeconomic and geopolitical uncertainties, it has not observed any immediate signs of systemic stress or supply chain disruption among its clients. The bank believes it remains well positioned to pursue its growth objectives for 2028 and 2030 while maintaining a disciplined approach to credit risk.

The investment outlook is primarily supported by improving financial fundamentals, including a recovery in revenue and profitability alongside relatively modest leverage. The shares also trade on a very low price-to-earnings valuation. These positives are partly offset by weaker technical indicators—such as a bearish trend with a negative MACD and the share price sitting below key moving averages—as well as a history of volatility in cash flow.

More about Distribution Finance Capital Holdings Plc

Distribution Finance Capital Holdings plc (DF Capital) is a specialist UK bank and niche lender focused on providing flexible financing solutions that support the sales and expansion of manufacturers, dealers, and distributors in underserved retail sectors. Its lending operations are funded through a range of savings products delivered via a straightforward digital platform. The group is listed on AIM under the ticker DFCH.

THG PLC (LSE:THG) has released its Annual Report & Accounts for the year ended 31 December 2025. The document is now accessible through the company’s website and the U.K. Financial Conduct Authority’s National Storage Mechanism, with printed copies also set to be distributed to shareholders. The report provides investors with a comprehensive overview of the group’s financial results, strategy, and operational performance for the year.

The company also confirmed that its 2026 Annual General Meeting will take place at 1:00 p.m. on 24 June 2026 at THG Studios in Altrincham. Shareholders will receive the formal notice of meeting in due course. Publishing the annual report alongside confirmation of the AGM schedule reflects THG’s compliance with U.K. disclosure and listing requirements, while giving investors the opportunity to review company performance and participate in governance discussions.

The investment outlook remains constrained mainly by weak financial quality, including negative EBIT and a shift to negative operating and free cash flow in 2025. Technical indicators also point to a softer setup, with the shares trading below key moving averages and showing a negative MACD signal. However, these factors are partly balanced by a very low price-to-earnings valuation and management commentary that highlighted plans to reduce leverage, extend liquidity, and maintain guidance despite near-term pressures from revenue trends and operating costs.

More about THG

THG PLC is a digital-first consumer brands and e-commerce group with operations across online retail, technology platforms, and direct-to-consumer services. Listed in the United Kingdom, the company serves a global customer base and maintains an active investor relations programme supported by regular financial disclosures and engagement with shareholders.

Intuitive Investments Group (LSE:IIG) and Acceler8 Ventures (LSE:AC8) have reached an agreement in principle on a potential all-share transaction that would see AC8 acquire IIG and the enlarged business seek admission to the Financial Conduct Authority’s Official List and the London Stock Exchange’s Main Market. Based on AC8’s most recent closing price, the proposed deal values IIG’s fully diluted share capital at roughly £600 million. Following completion—and a planned bonus issue for existing AC8 shareholders—IIG investors would hold about 99% of the combined company.

The companies say moving from the Specialist Fund Segment to the Equity Shares (Commercial Companies) category could expand institutional participation and help close IIG’s persistent discount to net asset value. The shift is also intended to better reflect the group’s evolution toward an operating structure built around Hui10’s Chinese lottery technology platform. Separately, AC8 plans to raise around £1 million through 8% unsecured convertible loan notes to provide working capital. The conversion structure is designed to support the completion of the transaction and help AC8 meet the UK listing rules requirement to complete a substantive acquisition.

The investment case is constrained mainly by weak financial fundamentals, including ongoing losses and negative cash flow, alongside valuation pressures stemming from a negative price-to-earnings ratio. However, these concerns are partly balanced by relatively strong technical momentum and a balance sheet with minimal leverage risk, supported by the company’s zero-debt position.

More about Intuitive Investments Group Plc

Intuitive Investments Group plc is an investment company listed on the London Stock Exchange’s Specialist Fund Segment. Its portfolio is heavily concentrated in Hui10 Inc., a technology firm focused on modernising China’s lottery sector through digital infrastructure and software platforms. Hui10 and its subsidiaries represent more than 99% of IIG’s portfolio value, highlighting the company’s strategic focus on high-growth technology assets tied to China’s evolving lottery ecosystem.

Senior plc (LSE:SNR) said Tuesday that its board has agreed to a recommended all-cash takeover by Zeus UK Bidco Limited, an acquisition vehicle backed by investment funds managed by Tinicum Incorporated and Blackstone Inc.

Under the proposed transaction, Senior shareholders will receive 300 pence per share, made up of 297.85 pence in cash and a final dividend of 2.15 pence for the 2025 financial year. The cash component represents a 36.6% premium to the company’s six-month volume-weighted average share price and a 2.8% premium to the closing price of 289.80 pence recorded on Wednesday.

The offer values Senior’s total issued share capital at about £1.28 billion on a fully diluted basis and implies an enterprise value of roughly £1.40 billion. The valuation equates to around 15.2 times the company’s adjusted EBITDA and 22.0 times its adjusted operating profit for the year ended December 31, 2025.

Senior’s board, which received financial advice from Lazard, said it considers the terms of the transaction fair and reasonable and intends to recommend that shareholders approve the deal at both the court meeting and the general meeting. Directors have already committed to vote in favor of the proposal with their combined holding of 2,620,740 shares, representing approximately 0.6% of the company’s issued share capital.

Zeus UK Bidco has also secured an irrevocable undertaking from Alantra to support the scheme with its holding of 72,307,009 shares, equivalent to around 17.2% of Senior’s share capital. Together with the directors’ shares, this brings total committed support for the transaction to approximately 17.9%.

The acquiring consortium plans to combine Senior with AeroFlow Technologies, a company recently acquired by Tinicum, under common ownership. According to the consortium, the integration would create complementary aerospace capabilities and strengthen earnings resilience.

Completion of the deal is subject to shareholder approval and will be carried out through a court-sanctioned scheme of arrangement under Part 26 of the UK Companies Act. The formal scheme document is expected to be issued within 28 days.

Oil prices pushed higher during Asian trading on Tuesday as markets prepared for the possibility of escalating tensions in the Middle East ahead of U.S. President Donald Trump’s deadline for Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz.

At 03:15 ET (07:15 GMT), Brent crude futures for June delivery had gained 1.5% to $111.37 per barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures climbed 2.2% to $114.85 per barrel.

The increases marked the third consecutive day of gains, driven by mounting concerns over the Strait of Hormuz—a crucial maritime passage that typically handles around one-fifth of global oil shipments.

On Monday, Iran rejected a U.S.-supported proposal that included a 45-day ceasefire and a gradual reopening of the strait, along with broader negotiations over sanctions relief and post-conflict reconstruction.

Instead, Tehran demanded a permanent ceasefire, binding guarantees against future attacks, the lifting of sanctions, and compensation for damages.

Trump reiterated that the Tuesday deadline of 8 p.m. ET would not be extended and warned that failure to comply could lead to U.S. military strikes targeting Iranian infrastructure, including bridges and power plants.

He said Iran could be “taken out” quickly, emphasizing the increasing risk of a broader regional escalation.

The sharper tone in Washington has left energy markets on edge, with traders factoring in the risk of further supply disruptions across the Gulf.

Media reports indicated that Iran and Israel exchanged attacks on Tuesday, highlighting the lack of progress toward a diplomatic resolution.

Recent disruptions to tanker traffic have already tightened expectations for global supply and increased the risk premium embedded in oil prices.

Although OPEC+ has announced modest production increases, analysts say the additional output is unlikely to materialize in practice due to ongoing logistical and operational constraints.

“With the Strait of Hormuz effectively shut, higher quotas remain largely notional for producers, including Iraq, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia and the UAE, until the route reopens,” ING analysts said in a note.

Gold prices posted modest gains on Tuesday while the U.S. dollar slipped, as investors remained cautious ahead of the deadline set by President Donald Trump for Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz.

At 05:04 ET (09:04 GMT), spot gold was up 0.8% at $4,685.54 per ounce, while gold futures for June delivery climbed 0.6% to $4,710.84 per ounce.

Trump warned that the United States would target “every bridge” and “power plant” in Iran if Tehran fails to meet his Tuesday deadline of 8 p.m. ET to agree to a deal reopening the Strait of Hormuz. The strategic waterway—through which roughly one-fifth of global oil supply flows—has effectively been closed to tanker traffic, pushing oil prices higher and raising concerns about inflation and the global economic outlook.

Iran has called for a comprehensive agreement that includes sanctions relief, security guarantees and compensation for damages. However, media reports suggest Washington is unlikely to accept those terms.

If new U.S. strikes take place, Trump said Iran would need “100 years to rebuild.”

Despite the tough rhetoric, Trump also indicated that diplomacy could still end the conflict, which began in late February after joint U.S. and Israeli attacks on Iran.

Gold also drew support from ongoing purchases by China’s central bank, which extended its gold-buying streak to a seventeenth consecutive month. The People’s Bank of China reported holdings of 74.38 million fine troy ounces at the end of March, compared with 74.22 million in February.

Gold still under pressure over the past month

Even with Tuesday’s gains, gold prices have declined over the past month as rising energy costs have strengthened expectations that central banks could keep interest rates elevated for longer. Because gold does not generate yield, it often struggles in environments where borrowing costs remain high.

Another factor weighing on the metal has been the stronger U.S. dollar. The greenback has benefited from safe-haven demand as investors seek stability amid geopolitical tensions, making dollar-denominated gold more expensive for buyers using other currencies.

On Tuesday, the dollar index, which measures the U.S. currency against a basket of major rivals, fell by 0.2%.

However, the dollar remains roughly 0.8% higher over the past month. During the same period, spot gold has declined by more than 8%.

Goldman Sachs has slightly lowered its forecast for average copper prices in 2026, now expecting the metal to trade at around $12,650 per tonne compared with its previous estimate of $12,850. The revision reflects softer demand expectations linked to slower global economic growth, although the bank continues to see strong long-term support for copper from electrification trends.

The bank now estimates the global copper market will record a surplus of roughly 490,000 tonnes this year, up from its earlier projection of 380,000 tonnes. At the same time, Goldman reduced its forecast for global refined copper demand growth to 1.6% year-on-year from 2%. The adjustment follows the bank’s economists estimating that the recent energy price shock tied to disruptions in the Middle East could shave about 0.4 percentage points off global GDP growth.

Goldman said the downward adjustment to copper demand is less pronounced than the revision applied to aluminium, reflecting copper’s increasingly structural importance in the global economy.

“This is a smaller demand revision than aluminium because of the increasingly strategic and structural nature of copper demand, making it less sensitive to global economic cycles,” analysts led by Aurelia Waltham said.

In the near term, Goldman expects copper prices to remain volatile but believes the market could stabilize if macroeconomic conditions improve.

In its base-case scenario—which assumes that energy shipments through the Strait of Hormuz begin recovering from mid-April—the bank forecasts copper prices to average about $12,700 per tonne in the second quarter of 2026. Prices are then expected to gradually move toward Goldman’s fair value estimate of roughly $12,000 per tonne during the second half of the year.

The bank also warned that current copper prices may be running ahead of underlying fundamentals. Even after a pullback in March, copper still trades well above Goldman’s estimated fair value for 2026 of around $11,100 per tonne, leaving the metal “vulnerable to another move lower should the economic outlook deteriorate and investors de-risk.”

Goldman added that its forecasts do not yet account for potential supply disruptions linked to tensions in the Middle East. For example, the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), which produces about 15% of global mined copper, depends on sulfur shipments passing through the Strait of Hormuz for a critical stage of its production process.

Industry feedback cited by the bank suggests that producers in the DRC typically maintain sulfuric acid inventories covering up to three months of operations. As a result, a short disruption would likely have limited consequences, although a prolonged interruption could tighten supply and reduce the projected surplus.

Looking further ahead, Goldman left its long-term forecast unchanged and continues to expect copper prices to reach $15,000 per tonne by 2035. The analysts argued that geopolitical tensions in the Middle East could reinforce the electrification theme, noting that power grids and energy infrastructure are projected to account for around 60% of global copper demand growth in their forecasts through 2030.