Author: Fiona Craig

The U.S. dollar showed a slight gain on Monday, starting the week quietly as markets brace for potential turbulence linked to upcoming trade developments. With the July 9 deadline for the Trump administration’s trade tariffs fast approaching, investors are watching closely for any signs of volatility.

By 04:05 ET (08:05 GMT), the Dollar Index—which measures the greenback against six major currencies—nudged 0.1% higher to 96.932, just above last week’s three-year low.

Market Poised for Trade-Related Moves

Currency markets remained relatively stable early Monday as traders await Wednesday’s expiration of the 90-day pause on the so-called ‘Liberation Day’ tariffs. President Donald Trump indicated he would announce on Monday the countries receiving letters detailing planned tariff hikes, which are set to come into effect on August 1.

Most U.S. trading partners are expected to face significantly increased duties once the moratorium ends. However, Trump also mentioned progress towards several trade agreements anticipated in the coming days. To date, only Britain, China, and Vietnam have struck trade deals with the U.S.

Analysts at ING noted, “While threats of reinstating 50% tariffs may disrupt the current calm risk environment, with markets already positioned with a light dollar exposure, the greenback may have limited downside.”

Euro Pulls Back From Recent High

The euro slipped 0.3% against the dollar to 1.1747, retreating from last week’s peak of 1.1829—the highest level since September 2021. German industrial production surprised on the upside in May, rising 1.2% month-over-month thanks to strength in automotive and energy sectors, surpassing expectations of no growth.

Following its eighth rate cut in a year last month, the European Central Bank is expected to hold off on further easing until September, as ongoing trade uncertainties and the euro’s recent strength temper policy moves, according to Capital Economics.

European trade officials met with U.S. counterparts in Washington last week, but a comprehensive trade deal remains elusive. The EU is pushing for an “in principle” agreement that would provide immediate tariff relief on key goods. Capital Economics analysts suggest a prolonged negotiation or a vague preliminary deal is the most probable outcome.

Pound Near Recent Highs Despite Minor Dip

GBP/USD edged down 0.3% to 1.3607, maintaining proximity to last week’s 1.3787 peak—the highest since October 2021. UK house prices showed no change month-over-month in June, per Halifax data released Monday, with a slight upward revision to May’s figures.

The housing market continues to feel the effects of April’s increased property transaction taxes, keeping activity subdued.

Australian Dollar Declines Ahead of RBA Decision

In Asia, USD/JPY rose 0.4% to 145.18 as traders awaited clarity on U.S.-Japan trade negotiations, which remain complicated. The Chinese yuan inched up 0.1% to 7.1726, while AUD/USD dropped 0.8% to 0.6504, retreating from a near eight-month high hit last week at $0.6590.

Market consensus expects the Reserve Bank of Australia to reduce its cash rate by another 25 basis points on Tuesday, responding to cooling inflation pressures and uncertain economic growth prospects.

UK equities began the week on a cautious note, with the FTSE 100 slipping slightly at Monday’s open. The British pound remained steady just above the $1.36 mark, while shares of energy giant Shell (LSE:SHEL) fell sharply following a disappointing trading update.

By 07:49 GMT, the FTSE 100 was down 0.1%, and the pound weakened 0.3% against the US dollar to 1.36. Meanwhile, European benchmarks saw mixed movement: Germany’s DAX climbed 0.3%, while France’s CAC 40 edged up 0.08%.

Shell Flags Weakness in Q2 Results

Shell’s stock fell over 3% after the company revealed a cautious outlook for the second quarter, citing softer performance in its downstream segment. Production guidance was lowered to between 900,000 and 940,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day (kboe/d), slightly below the first quarter’s 927,000 kboe/d. Liquefied natural gas (LNG) volumes were also forecasted to dip to between 6.4 and 6.8 million tonnes, down from 6.6 million tonnes last quarter. Analysts at RBC Capital Markets expressed disappointment, particularly highlighting issues in Shell’s Chemicals and Products division.

Renold Reports Sluggish Start to Fiscal Year

Industrial manufacturer Renold (LSE:RNO) disclosed that product sales volumes have started fiscal 2026 below last year’s levels. The company attributed the sluggish demand to ongoing economic uncertainties, which are causing customers to postpone orders. However, Renold noted that pricing adjustments helped offset some of the impact from lower sales in the first quarter.

Ferrexpo Sees Sharp Drop in Production

Iron ore miner Ferrexpo (LSE:FXPO) announced a 40% quarter-on-quarter fall in production for Q2, citing liquidity constraints due to suspended tax refunds in Ukraine. The stock declined 2.5% following the announcement.

UK Housing Market Shows No Movement in June

According to Halifax mortgage lender data, UK house prices remained flat in June, meeting economists’ expectations. The May figures were revised to show a 0.3% monthly decrease rather than the previously reported 0.4% decline. Despite the lack of monthly growth, prices were still 2.5% higher than in June of the previous year.

China Imposes Procurement Limits on EU Medical Devices

On the global front, China announced reciprocal restrictions on medical device purchases from European Union companies. Chinese government procurement will exclude EU firms from contracts exceeding $6.3 million, as stated by the Ministry of Finance.

UK Government Dismisses Immediate End to Two-Child Benefit Cap

Back home, UK officials tempered expectations regarding the removal of the two-child cap on parental benefits. Prime Minister Keir Starmer appears intent on maintaining spending controls amid budget concerns.

Gold prices slipped during Monday’s Asian trading session, pressured by a firm U.S. dollar and renewed trade tensions following fresh tariff threats from President Donald Trump. Meanwhile, stronger-than-expected U.S. employment data last week has cooled market hopes for imminent interest rate cuts, further weighing on the metal.

Despite Trump’s renewed tariff warnings, gold failed to attract safe-haven buying, largely because the president pushed back the effective date of new tariffs from July 9 to August 1, giving trading partners additional time to negotiate.

Trump also announced plans to start issuing formal letters this week outlining tariff plans for key economies. In addition, he threatened to impose an extra 10% tariff on countries associated with the BRICS group, labeling them as “anti-American.” However, these announcements had limited impact on boosting gold demand, as the delay reduced the immediate threat of trade disruptions.

Since April, Washington has finalized only a handful of trade agreements — notably with the UK, China, and Vietnam — falling short of Trump’s ambitious target of 90 deals in 90 days.

The U.S. dollar remained steady, holding on to last week’s gains, supported by robust nonfarm payroll figures that demonstrated resilience in the labor market despite various economic challenges. This strong data sharply reduced expectations that the Federal Reserve would cut interest rates at upcoming meetings. As a result, traders largely dismissed bets on a July rate cut and even increased odds that rates will stay steady through September, according to CME FedWatch.

A firmer dollar typically puts downward pressure on gold and other metals, as they become more expensive for holders of other currencies. Alongside gold, other precious metals also declined: platinum futures dropped nearly 2% to $1,381 an ounce after a strong rally in June, while silver futures slipped 0.6% to $36.91 an ounce.

Industrial metals felt the pressure too, with benchmark copper futures on the London Metal Exchange easing 0.6% to $9,807 per ton, and U.S. copper futures falling 1% to $5.013 per pound.

Oil prices fell sharply in Asian trading on Monday after OPEC+ announced a bigger-than-expected production boost for August, fueling concerns over oversupply.

As of 21:06 ET (01:06 GMT), Brent crude futures for September delivery declined 1.1% to $67.50 per barrel, while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) futures dropped 2.1% to $65.59 per barrel. Both contracts had gained 1–2% last week following sharp losses in late June.

OPEC+ Raises Output More Than Forecast

OPEC+ declared an increase of 548,000 barrels per day (bpd) for August, exceeding market expectations and surpassing previous monthly increases of 411,000 bpd in May, June, and July—each already three times the originally planned tapering. The group also signaled the possibility of another 548,000 bpd hike in September.

This continued rollback of voluntary cuts totaling 2.2 million bpd by major producers such as Saudi Arabia and Russia signals a shift from defending prices to defending market share. Analysts at ING note that larger supply hikes will likely deepen the oil market surplus later this year, putting further downward pressure on prices.

U.S. Tariff Deadline Postponed to August 1

The OPEC+ decision comes amid global economic uncertainties, including concerns about China’s growth and ongoing U.S. trade policy developments. President Donald Trump announced a delay in tariff implementation, extending the deadline from July 9 to August 1. This shift adds uncertainty to the trade outlook, as fears of trade barriers potentially dampening economic activity and energy demand persist.

Pantheon Resources plc (LSE:PANR) has successfully secured $16.25 million through a conditional placing and subscription of new Ordinary Shares. This fundraising aligns with the company’s conservative financing approach, ensuring liquidity remains above current commitments. The capital will fund drilling and operational activities at the Dubhe-1 appraisal well, support development planning for the Ahpun project, and advance gas monetization initiatives. Additionally, Pantheon is preparing for a potential US stock exchange listing targeted for early 2026.

The fundraise includes participation from the 2021 Convertible Bond holder and involves partial redemption of the 2025 convertible bonds, reducing outstanding debt principal. As a result, certain investors, including Michael Spencer and IPGL, will see increased ownership stakes.

While Pantheon faces financial performance challenges and bearish technical indicators, recent strategic corporate actions and leadership changes offer a cautiously positive outlook, contingent on successful operational execution.

More about Pantheon Resources

Pantheon Resources plc is an oil and gas company focused on developing the Kodiak and Ahpun projects on Alaska’s North Slope. Its proximity to key pipeline and transportation infrastructure supports efficient project development and future growth potential.

Shell plc (LSE:SHEL) has provided its second-quarter 2025 update, revealing varied outcomes across its business segments. The Marketing division is expected to deliver higher adjusted earnings compared to Q1, benefiting from strong demand and operational efficiency. In contrast, the Chemicals and Products segment is forecasted to report a loss, primarily driven by unplanned maintenance disruptions and weaker trading and optimization results. Upstream production is also set to decline due to scheduled maintenance and recent asset disposals, impacting overall revenue and earnings.

Despite these mixed operational results, Shell’s stock remains well-supported by robust financial performance and favorable technical indicators. The company’s strategic emphasis on shareholder returns—highlighted by ongoing share buybacks and steady earnings growth—strengthens investor confidence. Valuation metrics remain moderate, while a reliable dividend yield adds to Shell’s investment appeal.

More about Shell (UK)

Shell (UK) is a global leader in oil and gas exploration, production, refining, and marketing. The company is also actively investing in renewable energy initiatives as part of its broader strategy to transition toward sustainable energy solutions.

Vast Resources plc (LSE:VAST) has awarded 57.5 million Share Appreciation Rights (SARs) to its employees and consultants as part of its ongoing incentive program. This initiative aims to compensate for deferred pay while motivating staff during a critical phase of project development and market activity. By aligning employee interests with the company’s growth ambitions, the SARs scheme is designed to boost workforce engagement and support operational efficiency.

Despite facing financial difficulties marked by recurring losses and negative equity, Vast Resources sees some optimism from recent corporate developments and select positive technical signals. However, the company continues to grapple with valuation pressures due to persistent unprofitability.

About Vast Resources

Vast Resources plc is an AIM-listed mining firm headquartered in the UK, operating projects across Romania, Tajikistan, and Zimbabwe. Its portfolio includes the Baita Plai Polymetallic Mine in Romania and the Aprelevka gold mines in Tajikistan. The company focuses on producing base and precious metals such as copper, gold, and silver, while pursuing expansion of exploration and production activities.

Primary Health Properties PLC (LSE:PHP) has reported robust operational and financial results for the first half of 2025, fueled by rental income growth and a value-enhancing acquisition in Ireland. Positioned to capitalize on the UK Government’s 10-Year Health Plan—which promotes a transition from hospital-centered care to community-based healthcare—PHP’s focus on primary healthcare properties aligns closely with evolving policy priorities.

The company’s proposed merger with Assura plc is set to create one of the UK’s largest healthcare REITs, expected to deliver stronger income streams and increased asset valuation. This move has garnered strong backing from shareholders and underscores PHP’s commitment to government-backed rental income and organic growth through asset management.

Financially, PHP remains solid with a debt-free balance sheet and strong equity base, contributing to operational resilience. While technical indicators suggest positive momentum, the stock’s relatively high price-to-earnings ratio may imply some overvaluation. Strategic acquisitions and the potential merger enhance PHP’s market footprint, boosting investor confidence. Insights from recent earnings calls highlight growth prospects driven by higher rental revenues and effective asset management, despite facing some operational headwinds.

About Primary Health Properties plc

Primary Health Properties PLC is a leading investor in modern primary healthcare facilities across the UK and Ireland. It specializes in social infrastructure assets primarily leased to government bodies and prominent healthcare providers, supporting the delivery of community-based medical services.

Mkango Resources Ltd. (LSE:MKA) has successfully initiated production at its commercial-scale Hydrogen Processing of Magnet Scrap (HyProMag) facility located at Tyseley Energy Park in Birmingham, marking a major breakthrough for the company and its partners. This achievement represents the return of sintered magnet manufacturing to the UK for the first time in two decades. Supported by funding from UK Research and Innovation, the Tyseley plant is currently the only commercial-scale facility in the UK dedicated to producing rare earth sintered magnets.

Mkango’s partner, HyProMag, aims to substantially boost production capacity by 2026 and is actively exploring further expansion opportunities. This project not only supports the UK’s ambitions to secure critical mineral supply chains but also lays the groundwork for future growth in the domestic rare earth magnet sector.

About Mkango Resources

Mkango Resources Ltd. is an AIM- and TSX-V-listed company specializing in recycled rare earth magnets, alloys, and oxides. It seeks to become a market leader through its stake in Maginito Limited, a key player in rare earth magnet recycling operations across the UK and Germany. Mkango also holds significant rare earth assets including the Songwe Hill project in Malawi and the Pulawy separation facility in Poland, both designated as Strategic Projects under the EU’s Critical Raw Materials Act.

Georgina Energy plc (LSE:GEX) announced that its subsidiary, Westmarket Oil & Gas Pty Ltd, has secured essential approvals from the Department of Energy, Mines, Industry Regulation and Safety for the Hussar EP513 drilling project. The company is currently addressing additional information requests to obtain the final drilling permit. Once granted, Georgina plans to begin infrastructure repairs and construction activities to advance the project.

This step forms part of Georgina Energy’s broader strategy to meet its obligations under the Hussar drilling permit and strengthen its position within the energy sector. Further updates are anticipated concerning additional re-entry targets related to the project.

Despite promising strategic developments, Georgina Energy continues to grapple with financial difficulties, including negative profitability and cash flow pressures. While technical indicators reflect a neutral momentum, the company’s financial instability presents a considerable risk. Investors should exercise caution given the elevated risk profile.

About Georgina Energy

Georgina Energy plc aims to establish itself as a significant player in the global energy market, focusing on helium and hydrogen production. Operating primarily through its wholly owned Australian subsidiary, Westmarket Oil & Gas Pty Ltd, the company holds key interests in the Hussar Prospect in Western Australia and the EPA155 Mt Winter Prospect in the Northern Territory. Georgina Energy seeks to capitalize on growing market demand and its management expertise to address the expanding supply-demand gap in critical energy resources.