Author: Fiona Craig

  • Pulsar Group Addresses Market Speculation Over HMRC Tax Discussions

    Pulsar Group Addresses Market Speculation Over HMRC Tax Discussions

    Pulsar Group Plc (LSE:PULS) has moved to clarify its position following recent media reports concerning discussions with HM Revenue & Customs, confirming that it remains in regular contact with the UK tax authority regarding the timing of certain VAT and PAYE payments.

    The company said it has already made substantial payments towards its tax obligations and expects to meet its remaining liabilities through cash generated from normal collections. This suggests that the outstanding amounts are expected to be managed through the group’s existing cash flows rather than requiring alternative sources of funding.

    Board Says Trading and Operations Remain Stable

    Pulsar Group said underlying trading remains stable and that its operations are continuing as usual despite the ongoing discussions with HMRC.

    The Board expects the matter to reach a satisfactory conclusion and sought to reassure shareholders that the discussions do not currently undermine the group’s operational or financial stability. Further announcements will be issued if required as the situation develops.

    The clarification follows market speculation surrounding the company’s tax position and provides investors with additional context on its liquidity and ability to meet the outstanding payments.

    Financial Performance Continues to Weigh on Outlook

    Despite the reassurance surrounding its HMRC discussions, Pulsar Group’s broader financial picture remains challenging. Declining revenue, pressure on gross margins and continued net losses are among the main factors weighing on the outlook.

    Technical indicators are also weak, with the share price trading below key moving averages and the MACD remaining negative. Negative earnings additionally limit the usefulness of conventional valuation measures.

    There are some more supportive elements. Leverage remains relatively modest, while the return to positive operating and free cash flow in 2025 represents an improvement. However, continued cash-flow volatility and the absence of sustained profitability leave the overall financial position dependent on further operational progress.

    More about Pulsar Group Plc

    Pulsar Group Plc is a UK-based company listed on AIM under the ticker PULS. The group has said its underlying trading remains stable and that business operations are continuing normally while it maintains regular engagement with HMRC.

    Ongoing customer cash collections are expected to support the settlement of its remaining tax obligations as the company works towards resolving the timing of its outstanding VAT and PAYE payments.

  • Winvia Entertainment Secures £33 Million Barclays Loan to Support Prize Draw Expansion

    Winvia Entertainment Secures £33 Million Barclays Loan to Support Prize Draw Expansion

    Winvia Entertainment PLC (LSE:WVIA) has restructured its borrowing arrangements after securing a new £33 million three-year term loan from Barclays Bank, providing the entertainment group with additional financial flexibility as it targets further growth in the UK prize draw market.

    The new Barclays financing replaces Winvia’s previous banking facilities with Eurobank. Alongside the term loan, Barclays has made available a £5 million revolving facility intended to support acquisitions.

    That facility also includes an uncommitted accordion option allowing it to be increased by as much as £15 million, potentially giving Winvia additional funding capacity should suitable acquisition opportunities emerge.

    Funding Structure Supports Acquisition Strategy

    Winvia’s Board said the refinancing, together with the company’s net cash position of approximately £31.8 million at 30 June 2026, provides the group with a secure and low-leverage capital structure from which to pursue its expansion plans.

    The increased funding flexibility is particularly relevant to Winvia’s consolidation strategy in the fragmented UK prize draw industry. Management sees opportunities to combine organic growth with acquisitions, potentially allowing the company to expand its market presence and integrate additional businesses onto its existing technology platform.

    The new Barclays facilities could therefore provide greater capacity to pursue M&A opportunities while maintaining what the Board considers a prudent balance sheet position.

    More about Winvia Entertainment PLC

    Winvia Entertainment PLC is a technology-led entertainment business operating in the UK prize draw industry and the regulated Romanian online gaming market.

    The company is the UK’s second-largest prize draw operator by market share and owns brands including Best of the Best, Click Competitions and Rev Comps. Its Romanian online gaming portfolio includes Princess Casino, Royal Slots and Luck.

    Winvia’s operations are supported by a proprietary technology platform developed internally, which serves both its B2C and B2B activities and has contributed to improved operating performance.

    The group’s near-term strategy is focused on increasing its presence in the fragmented UK prize draw market through a combination of organic expansion and acquisitions, with acquired businesses potentially benefiting from integration with Winvia’s existing technology infrastructure.

  • Air China Reports Stronger July Passenger Traffic as Network and Fleet Expand

    Air China Reports Stronger July Passenger Traffic as Network and Fleet Expand

    Air China (LSE:AIRC) recorded stronger passenger activity in July 2026, with traffic growth comfortably outpacing the expansion in available capacity as the airline continued developing its domestic and international networks.

    Passenger capacity increased by 4.8% year on year during the month, while passenger traffic climbed 11.2%. As a result, the passenger load factor improved to 85.0%.

    Growth was led by domestic and international operations, contrasting with a contraction across regional routes. The figures indicate that Air China is continuing to concentrate capacity growth on its core mainland Chinese network and longer-haul international services.

    Cargo Load Factor Edges Lower

    Air China’s cargo operations delivered more moderate growth. Available cargo capacity rose 8.9% year on year in July, while cargo and mail traffic increased by 7.0%.

    With capacity expanding faster than demand, the cargo load factor slipped to 42.2%, highlighting a softer performance in freight compared with the airline’s passenger business during the period.

    New Routes Support Continued Network Expansion

    The airline continued to broaden its network during July, introducing new domestic connections from Chongqing and Nanchang alongside additional international services.

    New overseas routes included flights from Beijing to Venice and Bishkek, strengthening Air China’s connections with Europe and Central Asia.

    The group also expanded its fleet to 973 aircraft, supporting additional passenger capacity and the continued development of its international and domestic route portfolio.

    Air China noted that the operating figures were compiled from internal statistics and may differ from numbers subsequently presented in its periodic financial reports. Investors therefore need to take potential differences in reporting methodology into account when comparing the monthly operating data with future published results.

    More about Air China

    Air China Limited is one of China’s major airlines, providing passenger and cargo services across domestic, international and regional markets.

    The carrier operates a mixed fleet of nearly 1,000 aircraft through a combination of self-owned planes, finance leases and operating leases, giving it one of the largest aviation platforms in the Chinese market.

    Air China regularly adjusts its capacity, network and fleet composition as demand develops, while expanding services from major hubs including Beijing Capital and Chongqing. Its fleet renewal programme, including the addition of C919 and Boeing 737 aircraft, supports the group’s strategy of strengthening connectivity within China and across international markets including Europe and Central Asia.

  • Filtronic Publishes 2026 Annual Report and Sets AGM Date

    Filtronic Publishes 2026 Annual Report and Sets AGM Date

    Filtronic (LSE:FTC) has released its Annual Report and Accounts for the financial year ended 31 May 2026 alongside the notice for its upcoming Annual General Meeting, giving shareholders access to the latest corporate reporting and governance materials.

    The documents are now available electronically, while printed copies are being sent to shareholders who have previously requested paper communications. Filtronic’s 2026 AGM will take place on 30 October 2026 at the company’s NETPark facility in Sedgefield, County Durham.

    The meeting will provide shareholders with an opportunity to consider the formal business of the AGM and engage with the company on governance matters.

    Filtronic Encourages Shift to Digital Communications

    Alongside the publication of its annual report, Filtronic is encouraging investors to adopt electronic shareholder communications rather than continue receiving printed materials.

    The company said the transition can help reduce the environmental impact associated with producing and distributing physical documents while improving the efficiency of shareholder communications. Greater use of digital reporting could also streamline access to company information and meeting documents while reducing related administrative requirements.

    The initiative is consistent with Filtronic’s broader sustainability objectives and reflects the increasing use of electronic communications between listed companies and their shareholders.

    Outlook Reflects Stronger Fundamentals but Profitability Pressures

    Filtronic’s broader outlook combines improving underlying fundamentals and relatively low leverage with some areas of concern. A decline in profitability during 2026 and weaker conversion of earnings into free cash flow weigh on the financial picture.

    Market indicators also remain less supportive, with bearish technical signals and subdued momentum. Meanwhile, the company’s elevated price-to-earnings multiple provides limited valuation support, increasing the importance of future earnings delivery and cash generation.

    More about Filtronic

    Filtronic plc develops and manufactures advanced radio-frequency products and solutions for the space, aerospace and defence, and telecommunications infrastructure markets.

    Its technology is designed for demanding, high-performance communications applications, giving the company exposure to specialised areas of the global RF and connectivity industry.

  • RHI Magnesita Names Gustavo Franco as Successor to CEO Stefan Borgas

    RHI Magnesita Names Gustavo Franco as Successor to CEO Stefan Borgas

    RHI Magnesita (LSE:RHIM) has confirmed a planned change at the top of the refractory products group, with Gustavo Franco set to take over as chief executive from Stefan Borgas on 1 November 2026.

    Franco, a long-standing member of the company’s leadership team, brings around two decades of experience in the refractory industry. His appointment follows a structured succession process and will include a handover period with Borgas ahead of the leadership change.

    Franco also played an important role in the 2017 merger of RHI and Magnesita, which created the current group. His promotion is expected to provide continuity as RHI Magnesita pursues its existing strategy and seeks to generate sustainable long-term value for customers, employees and shareholders.

    Outlook Balances Operational Challenges With Deleveraging Potential

    The leadership transition comes as RHI Magnesita navigates a challenging operating environment. The company’s financial position remains adequate, although weaker revenue, pressure on margins and increased leverage have weighed on the overall picture.

    End-market conditions are also expected to remain subdued, with weak demand potentially continuing until at least 2027. Against this backdrop, management’s guidance has placed greater emphasis on execution, including opportunities to improve EBITA and reduce leverage.

    Supporting the outlook are constructive technical trends and a valuation profile that remains relatively favourable to shareholders. Progress on operational improvements and deleveraging could therefore become increasingly important if demand across the group’s major industrial markets remains soft.

    More about RHI Magnesita NV

    RHI Magnesita is a global supplier of refractory products, systems and services used in industrial processes operating at temperatures above 1,200°C. Its customers span the steel, cement, non-ferrous metals, glass and other process industries.

    The group employs more than 20,000 people and operates an extensive international network encompassing raw-material locations, manufacturing facilities, recycling centres and sales offices. RHI Magnesita is listed in London and also maintains a secondary listing in Vienna.

    Its portfolio combines refractory materials with technical expertise and related services, making the company an important supplier to heavy industry. The business has developed a geographically diversified footprint following the combination of RHI and Magnesita, with its strategy centred on customer partnerships, operational efficiency, sustainability, innovation and digitalisation.

  • Afentra plc Builds Momentum as Pacassa SW Discovery Opens the Door to Further Production Growth

    Afentra plc Builds Momentum as Pacassa SW Discovery Opens the Door to Further Production Growth

    In oil and gas, a discovery is important — but the real value comes from what happens next. For Afentra plc (LSE:AET), the successful Pacassa SW discovery in Angola is now being followed by a series of development, production and portfolio milestones that could make the second half of 2026 an important period for the company.

    In a recent Watch List interview, Paul McDade, CEO of Afentra plc, outlined the significance of the discovery, the company’s growing position in Block 3/05 and the range of offshore and onshore opportunities now moving forward.

    Pacassa SW Discovery Marks a Major Milestone

    The Pacassa SW well represents the first well delivered on Block 3/05 in more than a decade, making the result particularly significant for Afentra and its partners.

    The well encountered 136 metres of net oil pay within a gross 217-metre hydrocarbon-bearing interval, with the reservoir demonstrating good quality and strong indications of communication with the main Pacassa field. The results are consistent with Afentra’s pre-drill geological model and support the company’s view of the wider Pacassa SW opportunity.

    Afentra estimates that the wider Pacassa SW structure has the potential to contain up to 70 million barrels of gross recoverable resources, equivalent to approximately 23 million barrels net to Afentra, subject to further technical evaluation and the completion of the reserves and resources assessment.

    For a company of Afentra’s size, that potential is substantial.

    As Paul McDade explained, the discovery also benefits from its proximity to existing infrastructure. The Pacassa SW well is being completed as a production well and connected to the existing Pacassa production system, creating a potentially rapid route from discovery to cash-generating production. First oil is expected during Q3 2026.

    That ability to utilise existing infrastructure is particularly attractive, as it can help keep development costs and timelines under control while accelerating the potential contribution from the new discovery.

    Production Growth Moving Into Focus

    Pacassa SW is not the only source of near-term production potential.

    Afentra has also successfully restarted the Impala-1 well, which had been shut in since 2017. Following a light well intervention, the well achieved gross flow rates of up to approximately 4,700 barrels of oil per day during testing and is currently producing at around 3,000 barrels per day gross, with production intentionally constrained to manage water cut and longer-term reservoir performance.

    The restart provides immediate production while also generating valuable reservoir and well productivity data ahead of the planned Impala-2 development well.

    Impala-2 is expected to follow the Pacassa SW operations, with drilling anticipated to begin later in 2026 and results expected towards the end of Q4.

    Together, Pacassa SW, Impala-1 and Impala-2 create a series of important offshore catalysts for Afentra.

    Growing Exposure to Block 3/05

    The company’s broader strategy is also being supported by the anticipated completion of the Etu transaction, which is expected in Q3 2026.

    The transaction will increase Afentra’s interest in Block 3/05, providing greater exposure to the production and development opportunities across the asset.

    That is important because the company is increasingly demonstrating the ability to unlock value from mature Angolan assets through a combination of targeted drilling, workovers, redevelopment and operational optimisation.

    Rather than relying solely on large-scale exploration success, Afentra is pursuing a pragmatic strategy focused on assets where existing infrastructure and established production can help accelerate returns.

    Further Opportunities Beyond Pacassa

    The company’s growth ambitions extend beyond Block 3/05.

    Afentra is also progressing its operated activities on Block 3/24, where it recently completed its first operated offshore campaign without incidents. An innovative approach to wellhead inspections reduced the survey cost by approximately 90%, demonstrating the company’s focus on disciplined capital allocation and cost-effective execution.

    Onshore, Afentra continues to assess exploration opportunities across its Kwanza Onshore portfolio, with seismic interpretation beginning to identify potentially attractive targets.

    The company is also progressing plans around the KON 4 Quenguela Norte field, providing another potential development opportunity within its growing portfolio.

    A Busy Second Half of 2026

    For shareholders, the key feature of Afentra’s current position is the number of potential catalysts progressing simultaneously.

    Pacassa SW is moving towards production, Impala-1 has already returned to production, Impala-2 is approaching the drilling phase and the Etu transaction is expected to further strengthen Afentra’s position in Block 3/05.

    At the same time, the company is advancing Block 3/24 and continuing to evaluate its onshore exploration and redevelopment opportunities.

    The Pacassa SW discovery therefore represents more than a successful individual well. It provides further evidence that Afentra’s strategy of targeting mature African assets with production, infrastructure and redevelopment potential can generate meaningful organic growth.

    As Paul McDade has highlighted, the discovery provides clear proof of concept for Afentra’s organic growth strategy.

    With new production coming through, further drilling ahead and a growing portfolio of opportunities, Afentra plc is entering the next phase of its development with considerable momentum.

    For investors watching the company, the focus now shifts from what Pacassa SW has discovered to how quickly Afentra can turn that discovery, alongside its wider portfolio, into  production growth, enhanced cash flow and long-term value.

    For more information visit – https://www.afentraplc.com/

  • Citi raises Rolls-Royce price target by 50% as data centre demand boosts outlook

    Citi raises Rolls-Royce price target by 50% as data centre demand boosts outlook

    Citigroup has increased its price target for Rolls-Royce Holdings (LSE:RR.) by around 50%, raising it to 1,647 pence from 1,101 pence after stronger first-half results prompted substantial upgrades to the bank’s long-term profit and cash flow forecasts.

    Citi lifted its longer-term earnings and cash generation estimates by between 30% and 40%, with accelerating demand from data centre customers emerging as a major growth driver for Rolls-Royce’s Power Systems business.

    Despite the higher valuation, the bank retained its “neutral” recommendation. With Rolls-Royce shares trading at £15.25, Citi’s new target implies an expected total return of 8.6%, below the 15% required by the broker to justify a “buy” rating.

    Power Systems overtakes Civil Aerospace in Citi valuation

    One of the most significant changes to Citi’s investment case is the growing importance of Power Systems.

    The division has now overtaken Civil Aerospace as the largest contributor to the broker’s fair-value assessment. Citi’s sensitivity analysis assigns 504 pence per share of value to Power Systems, compared with 353 pence for Civil Aerospace.

    Strong demand from data centre operators is underpinning the division’s growth outlook. Citi now forecasts a long-term Power Systems margin of 23.5%, considerably above Rolls-Royce’s own medium-term target range of 18% to 20%.

    The bank increased forecasts across all three of Rolls-Royce’s main divisions, although it applied different assumptions regarding the sustainability of recent improvements.

    Citi cautious on Civil Aerospace profit boosts

    For Civil Aerospace, Citi’s upgraded estimates incorporate contract catch-ups that contributed a net £497 million during the first half, together with £125 million of releases from onerous contract provisions.

    However, the bank cautioned that much of this benefit was non-recurring and non-cash.

    Over the longer term, Citi expects annual contract catch-ups to settle at approximately £100 million, substantially below the level recorded during the first half.

    Defence margins expected to normalise

    Rolls-Royce’s Defence division achieved a record margin of 21% in the first half, comfortably exceeding the company’s medium-term target of between 14% and 16%.

    The performance was supported by a favourable sales mix, including strong international business and higher aftermarket activity.

    Citi does not expect the 21% margin to be sustainable over the longer term, instead forecasting Defence margins of approximately 16% to 16.5%.

    Small Modular Reactor business adds further value

    Citi separately values Rolls-Royce’s Small Modular Reactor operation at between 87 and 90 pence per share.

    The broker used two approaches to estimate the business’s potential value. One assumes Rolls-Royce eventually scales production to eight SMR deliveries annually, while the other models the company capturing a 25% share of a global market potentially reaching 400 units by 2050.

    Citi adds the resulting SMR valuation to enterprise value when calculating its overall equity price target for Rolls-Royce.

    Citi forecasts £5.69 billion of shareholder free cash flow by 2028

    The broker’s discounted cash flow model assumes compound annual profit growth of 12.2% over the next five years, followed by 8% growth between years six and 10 and a perpetual growth rate of 3%.

    Its valuation also incorporates operating cash conversion of 110% and a weighted average cost of capital of 9%.

    Citi expects Rolls-Royce group sales to reach £22.99 billion in 2026 before increasing to £28.62 billion by 2028.

    Free cash flow available to shareholders is forecast to climb to £5.69 billion in 2028, reflecting the broker’s substantially more optimistic view of the group’s long-term earnings and cash-generation potential.

  • U.S. stocks set for cautious open as Fed relief clashes with oil-price concerns: Dow Jones, S&P, Nasdaq, Wall Street Futures

    U.S. stocks set for cautious open as Fed relief clashes with oil-price concerns: Dow Jones, S&P, Nasdaq, Wall Street Futures

    U.S. stocks could begin Monday’s session with limited direction, with major index futures pointing to a broadly flat open following Friday’s modest retreat.

    Technology shares may provide some support after Bloomberg reported that Anthropic (NASDAQ:ANTP) told prospective investors its second-quarter revenue increased by at least 14 times compared with the same period last year.

    Documents reviewed by Bloomberg reportedly showed preliminary quarterly revenue exceeding $11.5 billion for the Claude chatbot developer, compared with $787 million in the second quarter of 2025.

    Market direction clouded by economic and geopolitical risks

    Broader trading activity could remain subdued as investors weigh conflicting signals surrounding the near-term outlook.

    Recent U.S. economic figures have reduced expectations that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates next month. However, persistently elevated crude prices continue to present an inflationary and economic risk as the U.S.-Iran conflict remains unresolved.

    U.S. crude futures climbed 0.7% to $83 a barrel after President Donald Trump threatened to bomb Oman during an interview with Fox News.

    The comments came as Iran and Oman appeared to be making progress towards an understanding over the management of the Strait of Hormuz, a critical route for global energy supplies.

    Wall Street retreats from record territory

    U.S. equities finished modestly lower on Friday after advancing during most of the previous two sessions, although selling pressure remained relatively contained.

    The Dow Jones Industrial Average declined 107.58 points, or 0.2%, to 53,732.41. The Nasdaq dropped 73.86 points, or 0.3%, to 26,729.16, while the S&P 500 fell 13.23 points, or 0.2%, to 7,785.76.

    Performance across the week was mixed. The Dow lost 0.6%, while the Nasdaq gained 0.1% and the S&P 500 advanced 0.4%.

    Friday’s decline may have partly reflected profit-taking after the S&P 500 climbed above 7,800 to reach a record intraday level on Thursday.

    The benchmark also recorded an all-time closing high that day, while the technology-heavy Nasdaq finished at its strongest closing level in more than two months.

    Consumer sentiment and retail sales disappoint

    Investors also reacted to signs of weakening U.S. consumer conditions.

    The University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment index dropped sharply to 51.0 in August from 55.2 in July. Economists had expected a more modest decline to 54.2.

    Separate Commerce Department figures showed retail sales unexpectedly contracted 0.6% in July following a 0.2% increase in June. Economists had forecast growth of 0.1%.

    The July decline represented the first fall in retail sales since a 0.2% contraction in October 2025.

    Although the weaker economic figures have further reduced concerns about an imminent Federal Reserve rate increase, they have also raised questions about the resilience of the U.S. economy, particularly with elevated energy prices adding pressure on consumers and businesses.

    Oil and gold stocks outperform broader market

    Crude prices rebounded on Friday after Trump administration officials indicated that economic measures could be used to pressure Iran into reopening the Strait of Hormuz, increasing concerns that the dispute could remain unresolved for an extended period.

    Energy-related stocks benefited from the move. The Philadelphia Oil Service Index climbed 2.6%, reaching its strongest closing level in well over two months.

    Gold producers also rallied as bullion prices increased, sending the NYSE Arca Gold Bugs Index up 2.2%.

    Computer hardware shares recorded notable gains as well, while airlines, software companies and pharmaceutical stocks were among the weaker areas of the market.

    Investors heading into Monday’s session therefore face a mixed backdrop, with softer economic data reducing expectations for higher interest rates while simultaneously raising concerns about growth, and continuing geopolitical tensions keeping energy prices elevated.

  • European stocks edge lower as weak Chinese data weighs on sentiment: DAX, CAC, FTSE100

    European stocks edge lower as weak Chinese data weighs on sentiment: DAX, CAC, FTSE100

    European equities moved modestly lower on Monday as a series of disappointing economic indicators from China renewed concerns about the outlook for the world’s second-largest economy.

    Chinese consumer spending stagnated in July, while urban investment contracted at a faster rate and unemployment increased. The latest figures have added to expectations that Beijing may need to introduce further measures to support economic activity during the second half of the year.

    Iran conflict and Hormuz risks remain in focus

    Investors were also monitoring the lack of progress towards ending the U.S.-Iran war, with geopolitical tensions continuing to influence energy markets.

    Brent crude futures traded around $89 a barrel as renewed fighting in Lebanon and further attacks on tankers in the Strait of Hormuz reduced hopes of an imminent resolution to the conflict.

    Against this backdrop, France’s CAC 40 Index declined 0.4%, while the U.K.’s FTSE 100 Index and Germany’s DAX Index each slipped 0.1%.

    Mining stocks gain as U.S. dollar weakens

    Mining companies were among the stronger performers, with Antofagasta (LSE:ANTO), Glencore (LSE:GLEN) and Anglo American (LSE:AAL) moving higher.

    The gains came as the U.S. dollar approached two-month lows following softer retail sales and consumer sentiment figures released on Friday.

    A weaker dollar can provide support for dollar-denominated commodities, potentially benefiting shares of major mining groups.

    AstraZeneca rises on positive Phase III results

    In company news, HIAG Immobilien Holding (LSE:0QU6) advanced after the Swiss property company reported a sharp increase in first-half profit.

    AstraZeneca (LSE:AZN) also climbed after the British pharmaceutical group announced positive results from its Phase III SAFFRON trial.

    Optima Health (LSE:OPT), meanwhile, fell sharply after the workplace health and wellbeing services provider reported a substantial increase in debt alongside its full-year results.

  • Gold holds near $4,400 as Fed expectations and geopolitical risks pull in opposite directions

    Gold holds near $4,400 as Fed expectations and geopolitical risks pull in opposite directions

    Gold remained firmly supported near $4,400 an ounce on Monday as investors balanced softer U.S. economic data and a weaker dollar against persistent inflation risks stemming from disruption to Middle East energy supplies.

    At 01:04 ET (05:04 GMT), XAU/USD was 0.5% higher at $4,399.44 an ounce. Gold Futures rose 0.4% to $4,455.90, while other precious metals recorded stronger gains. XAG/USD climbed 1.7% to $65.83 and XPT/USD advanced 1.8% to $1,749.15 an ounce.

    Meanwhile, the US Dollar Index declined 0.2% to 99.49, providing a more favourable backdrop for dollar-denominated bullion.

    Cooling U.S. economy changes the rate outlook

    Bullion entered Monday’s session with momentum after gaining almost 1% over the previous week, as signs of weaker U.S. economic activity reduced concerns that the Federal Reserve could raise interest rates in the near term.

    Consumer sentiment declined for the first time in three months, while retail sales suffered their largest monthly drop in more than a year.

    Those figures have given policymakers less reason to tighten monetary conditions immediately. Lower expectations for interest rates can benefit gold because the metal offers no yield and faces greater competition from interest-bearing assets when borrowing costs rise.

    ANZ analysts said the negative correlation between bullion and U.S. Treasury yields has also become more pronounced, leaving gold increasingly sensitive to movements in borrowing costs.

    The brokerage sees three potential stages for the gold market over the next year. Initially, persistent inflation and a Federal Reserve remaining on hold could constrain prices. An energy-driven economic slowdown could then change the macroeconomic environment before eventual monetary easing provides a stronger catalyst for bullion.

    ANZ expects geopolitical deterioration to continue encouraging central banks to diversify their reserves and forecasts gold could reach $5,200 an ounce by year-end.

    The next important monetary-policy signal is due on Wednesday with the release of minutes from the Federal Reserve’s July meeting.

    Middle East energy uncertainty complicates the inflation picture

    While recent U.S. indicators have softened, geopolitical developments mean inflation concerns have not disappeared.

    Several ships were attacked in the Strait of Hormuz late last week, and the U.S. said it was preparing additional measures designed to increase pressure on Iran’s economy.

    Vessels have continued to leave the waterway despite the security risks, with some reportedly turning off satellite transponders in an effort to make themselves more difficult to detect.

    At the diplomatic level, Iran and Oman appear to be moving closer to an arrangement governing the management of the Strait of Hormuz. The United States, however, is not involved in those negotiations.

    The uncertain combination of security incidents and diplomatic efforts leaves the outlook for global energy flows highly volatile.

    Another substantial rise in oil prices could revive inflationary pressure, potentially limiting the Federal Reserve’s room to ease monetary policy even if economic growth continues to weaken.

    China and other central banks underpin bullion demand

    Beyond monetary policy and geopolitical uncertainty, structural demand from central banks continues to provide an important source of support for gold.

    Bullion’s recovery above $4,000 an ounce has coincided with stronger investor interest and sustained official-sector purchases, with China remaining a notable buyer.

    Gold moved above its 100-day moving average last week for the first time since April and has remained close to the technical benchmark.

    ANZ said global central banks accumulated 244 tonnes of gold during the first quarter of 2026, representing the strongest quarterly purchasing total since the final three months of 2024.

    China added 8 tonnes to its holdings in April alone, marking its largest monthly gold purchase since December 2024.