Author: Matthew Collom

U.S. stock index futures moved modestly higher on Tuesday, pausing after recent volatility as earnings season presses on.

As of 09:35 ET, the Dow Jones Industrial Average was up 60 points (0.1%), while the S&P 500 and NASDAQ Composite each rose 0.1%.

Markets rebounded on Monday from last week’s sharp declines, which had been triggered by fresh tariff threats and weaker-than-expected U.S. jobs data.

Rate Cut Optimism Supports Markets

Investor sentiment has improved amid rising expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut in September. The odds of a rate reduction next month have climbed to roughly 90%, up from 63% a week ago, according to CME FedWatch data.

President Donald Trump renewed trade tensions on Monday by threatening higher tariffs on Indian goods due to its purchases of Russian oil. Yet, the market shrugged this off, instead focusing on the potential for Fed stimulus following soft economic data.

On the economic front, attention turns Tuesday to the ISM non-manufacturing PMI, forecast to edge up to 51.5 in July from 50.8 in June. A reading above 50 signals expansion in the crucial services sector, which makes up more than two-thirds of the U.S. economy.

Meanwhile, the U.S. trade deficit shrank more than expected in June, narrowing by 16% to $60.2 billion from $71.7 billion in May. The drop, driven by a pullback in imports, outperformed economist forecasts of $62.6 billion.

Palantir Headlines Corporate Earnings

Earnings have generally come in strong, with upbeat guidance and relatively muted concerns over tariffs helping support equities.

Palantir Technologies (PLTR) surged after reporting its highest quarterly revenue since going public, fueled by increased demand for its AI-driven software from both governments and businesses. The company has benefited from the White House’s AI initiatives and the Pentagon’s interest in working with non-traditional tech vendors.

Other corporate highlights:

• Pfizer (PFE) gained after beating Q2 earnings and revenue estimates, and raising its full-year profit outlook.
• Marriott International (MAR) also climbed on better-than-expected Q2 earnings, despite trimming its full-year forecast due to reduced federal spending and softer business travel.
• Caterpillar (CAT), however, fell after reporting Q2 earnings that missed forecasts, even as revenue topped expectations.

Oil Prices Extend Declines

Crude prices slipped again Tuesday, extending losses following OPEC+‘s decision to boost output despite an uncertain demand backdrop.

As of 09:35 ET, Brent crude was down 1% at $68.10 per barrel, while WTI dropped 1.1% to $65.57. Both benchmarks posted their fourth straight session of losses on Monday, settling at their lowest levels in a week.

OPEC+ announced on Sunday it would increase production by 547,000 barrels per day in September, fully reversing previous cuts totaling 2.5 million bpd, or roughly 2.4% of global demand.

This content is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or other professional advice. It should not be considered a recommendation to buy or sell any securities or financial instruments. All investments involve risk, including the potential loss of principal. Past performance is not indicative of future results. You should conduct your own research and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions.

U.S. stocks surged Monday, reversing Friday’s losses, as optimism grew around the possibility of an earlier-than-expected interest rate cut from the Federal Reserve. Strong earnings from major tech companies also helped lift investor sentiment.

By the close of trading, the Dow Jones Industrial Average had added 575 points (up 1.3%), the S&P 500 climbed 1.5%, and the NASDAQ Composite advanced by 2%.

Friday’s sharp drop in the markets came after President Donald Trump signed an executive order imposing steep tariffs on imports from nearly 70 countries — a move that rattled investors and sent the S&P 500 to its worst daily performance in over two months.

Adding to the pressure was a disappointing jobs report that revealed significant downward revisions to previous data. Tensions escalated further when Trump dismissed the head of the U.S. statistics agency, alleging — without proof — that the labor figures were manipulated. Analysts warned the firing could cast doubt on the credibility of official U.S. economic reports.

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Weak Employment Data Fuels Rate Cut Hopes

Monday’s focus turned to U.S. factory orders for June, as investors continued to digest Friday’s lackluster nonfarm payrolls report. The Labor Department revealed that only 73,000 jobs were added in July — well below the forecast of 110,000. In addition, the job totals for May and June were revised downward by a combined 258,000 positions.

This slowdown in job creation strengthened the case for monetary easing, with market pricing now assigning over an 80% chance of a Fed rate cut in September.

Despite the recent volatility, Morgan Stanley strategist Mike Wilson reiterated his bullish stance on U.S. equities in a client note. He encouraged investors to take advantage of any market dips, citing continued strength in corporate earnings revisions as a reason for optimism.

Wilson pointed to April’s rebound as a turning point, calling it both a “Capitulation Day” and “Liberation Day” that marked the end of the 2024 bear market and the beginning of a new bull run — now four months in.

While the weak jobs data and the Fed’s cautious stance could lead to short-term consolidation, Wilson remains upbeat: “We’re buyers on dips and positive on the 12-month outlook.”

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AI Momentum Keeps Tech Stocks in the Lead

Tech continued to outperform, buoyed by enthusiasm around artificial intelligence. NVIDIA (NASDAQ: NVDA), Microsoft (NASDAQ: MSFT), and Meta Platforms (NASDAQ: META) were among the top gainers, with Microsoft and Meta extending their rally after blockbuster earnings last week.

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Eyes on Corporate Earnings: Big Week Ahead

Investors are gearing up for a busy earnings week, with more than 150 companies across sectors expected to report. The solid start to the earnings season has helped reinforce the long-term bullish narrative tied to AI advancements.

On Tuesday, all eyes will be on Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) and Caterpillar, as their results may offer insight into semiconductor demand and global industrial health. Wednesday brings earnings from Disney, McDonald’s, and Uber.

Meanwhile, shares of Berkshire Hathaway slipped after the firm reported a $3.76 billion write-down tied to its stake in Kraft Heinz.

Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) shares rose, following news that the board had approved a 96 million share restricted stock grant for CEO Elon Musk, based on a recommendation from a special committee of independent directors.

This content is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or other professional advice. It should not be considered a recommendation to buy or sell any securities or financial instruments. All investments involve risk, including the potential loss of principal. Past performance is not indicative of future results. You should conduct your own research and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions.

Here’s what investors should keep an eye on from the FTSE 100, FTSE 250, and a few standout global names reporting their results during the week starting 4 August 2025.

Scheduled Earnings Releases

4 August

• Clarkson – Half-year results
• Palantir Technologies – Q2 results
• Senior – Half-year results

5 August

• Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) – Q2 results
• BP – Q2 results
• Diageo – Full-year results
• Domino’s Pizza – Half-year results
• Fresnillo – Half-year results
• International Workplace Group – Half-year results
• Keller Group – Half-year results
• Rotork – Half-year results
• Smith & Nephew – Half-year results
• Spirent – Half-year results
• Travis Perkins – Half-year results

6 August

• 4imprint – Half-year results
• Coca-Cola HBC – Half-year results
• Coca-Cola Europacific Partners – Half-year results
• Glencore – Half-year results
• Hiscox – Half-year results
• Ibstock – Half-year results
• Lancashire Holdings – Half-year results
• Legal & General – Half-year results
• Novo Nordisk – Q2 results
• Quilter – Half-year results
• Shopify – Q2 results
• TP ICAP Group – Half-year results
• Tritax Big Box – Half-year results
• Vesuvius – Half-year results
• Walt Disney Co – Q3 results

7 August

• Deliveroo – Half-year results
• Dowlais Group – Half-year results
• Eli Lilly – Q2 results
• Harbour Energy – Half-year results
• Hikma Pharmaceuticals – Half-year results
• InterContinental Hotels Group – Half-year results
• Just Group – Half-year results
• Morgan Advanced Materials – Half-year results
• Serco Group – Half-year results
• Spectris – Half-year results
• WPP – Half-year results

8 August

• Renewables Infrastructure Group – Half-year results
• TBC Bank Group – Q2 results
• TSMC – Corporate sales release

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BP: Eyes on Production and Share Buybacks

BP will report its second-quarter results amid weaker oil and gas prices, but higher production volumes should help offset some of the revenue pressure. Refining margins are also expected to climb by $300–500 million, while oil trading performance looks robust, giving analysts confidence that net income may have risen from $1.5 billion in Q1 to roughly $1.8 billion.

The company is guiding for net debt to tick down from the $27 billion reported last quarter, supported by the sale of its U.S. onshore wind business. Investors will be eager for updates on potential share buyback increases after BP slashed its buybacks to $0.75 billion last quarter.

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Palantir: High Expectations, Can the Company Keep Up?

Palantir heads into its Q2 earnings with strong share price momentum, but equally strong pressure to deliver. Markets are expecting earnings per share to surge by 53%, but anything less could spark a pullback. Sustained growth in government contracts, particularly outside the U.S., will be closely watched to see if Palantir can turn its international ambitions into reality.

Investors are also looking for updates on corporate adoption rates, especially from its AI-focused bootcamps. Palantir is well-placed in the booming AI data analytics space, but it must keep growth at a high level to justify its lofty valuation.

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Diageo: Navigating Tariffs and Leadership Changes

Diageo’s full-year results follow a strong third quarter, with sales up nearly 6% to $4.4 billion, thanks in part to pre-tariff stockpiling by customers. But attention now turns to how well Diageo is handling the roughly $150 million in expected annual costs from new tariffs. Half of these costs should be absorbed by efficiency gains, but price increases may be needed to cover the rest.

Investors will also seek clarity on leadership plans after former CEO Debra Crew’s abrupt departure in July, capping a period of muted performance. For now, underlying operating profits for the year are forecast to dip slightly to around £5.7 billion, before expected growth resumes in the new financial year.

This content is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or other professional advice. It should not be considered a recommendation to buy or sell any securities or financial instruments. All investments involve risk, including the potential loss of principal. Past performance is not indicative of future results. You should conduct your own research and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions.

The U.S. stock market stumbled into August, with the Nasdaq and S&P 500 recording their sharpest weekly declines since May, and the Dow seeing its worst weekly drop since early April. For both the Nasdaq and S&P 500, it was their first dip below the 21-day exponential moving average since spring—a potential signal of weakening momentum. As the summer trading lull begins, this week’s earnings and events could help determine whether the broader rally can regain steam.

A wide range of companies will report this week, including Caterpillar (CAT), Palantir Technologies (PLTR), Axon Enterprise (AXON), and Eli Lilly (LLY). On the event side, all eyes in cybersecurity will turn to Las Vegas, where the annual Black Hat conference runs through August 7.

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Resilient Stocks: Mild Pullbacks, Key Support Holds

While major indexes took a hit last week—particularly on Friday—several individual names held up relatively well and remain close to potential breakout levels. These include Elbit Systems (ESLT), a defense company based in Israel; Rollins (ROL), a pest control firm; tech giant Alphabet (GOOGL); gold producer Agnico Eagle Mines (AEM); and asset management firm Blackstone (BX).

Elbit ended the week on a strong note, just under a buy point, while the others saw modest dips. Encouragingly, all of them maintained levels above their 21-day exponential moving averages, a sign that institutional support may still be intact.

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Economic Outlook: Jobs, Trade, and Productivity in Focus

The upcoming week features key economic data that may clarify the labor market outlook. The ISM services index, due Tuesday, is projected to climb to 52.2 from June’s 50.8—an indication of slightly faster growth. Also on Tuesday, the Bureau of Economic Analysis will update the June trade balance, adding service-sector data to the preliminary $86 billion goods deficit.

Sluggish hiring in Q2 could translate into a sharp increase in worker productivity, which the Bureau of Labor Statistics will report Thursday. Analysts are also watching for how recent tariff shifts might have artificially boosted GDP via trade and inventory distortions.

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Semiconductors: All Eyes on AMD’s 27% Revenue Growth

Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) will report its fiscal Q2 results after Tuesday’s close. Analysts expect sales to jump 27% year over year to $7.42 billion, even as earnings per share are projected to decline 30% to $0.48.

Wall Street will be focused on AMD’s data center division, which includes Epyc server processors and Instinct AI chips. Meanwhile, PC chip demand could get a lift from accelerated orders tied to tariffs, as well as market share gains at Intel’s expense. Other chipmakers reporting include Astera Labs (ALAB), Macom Technology Solutions (MTSI), and SiTime (SITM).

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Blue Chip Earnings: Caterpillar Heads Key Dow Reports

Only a handful of Dow stocks have yet to report, and this week features four more: Caterpillar, Amgen (AMGN), Disney (DIS), and McDonald’s (MCD). Caterpillar is trading close to all-time highs, while Disney saw technical damage last week, falling below its 10-week support line. Among the group, only McDonald’s is forecast to post growth in both revenue and profits. Nvidia (NVDA) won’t report until later this month on August 27.

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AI Standout: Palantir Eyes New Growth Channels

Palantir Technologies is set to report Monday after the close, and expectations are sky-high. With the stock up around 110% this year, it’s 2025’s top performer on the S&P 500—continuing its leadership streak from 2024. Analysts are looking for 54% earnings growth and a 38% increase in revenue.

Investors will also be listening for updates on U.S. government spending, including the “Golden Dome” space defense initiative. Palantir is positioning itself to expand into new industries—especially health care and financial services—through its use of generative AI.

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Pharma Earnings: All Eyes on Eli Lilly

Several major pharmaceutical companies and biotechs are scheduled to release earnings this week. Tuesday features Pfizer (PFE), Amgen, and Bayer (BAYRY), while Thursday brings reports from Eli Lilly, Gilead Sciences (GILD), and Ligand Pharmaceuticals (LGND).

Of the group, the biotechs are showing stronger technical setups. Ligand recently broke out, and Gilead is hovering near a key buy point. But Eli Lilly remains the standout: analysts expect the company to post a 43% rise in earnings and a 30% boost in revenue—some of the strongest growth among large-cap pharma names.

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Cybersecurity Watch: Black Hat Conference Kicks Off

Cybersecurity will take center stage this week thanks to the Black Hat conference in Las Vegas. Fresh off Palo Alto Networks’ (PANW) $25 billion acquisition of CyberArk (CYBR), investors are watching to see whether industry consolidation continues—and how it affects smaller players.

Earnings are also on tap for key names in the sector. Qualys (QLYS) is expected to post a slight earnings dip of 2% to $1.48 per share, with an 8% gain in revenue to $161.3 million. Fortinet (FTNT) reports Wednesday, with analysts projecting 4% earnings growth to $0.59 per share and a 13% revenue increase to $1.625 billion.

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More Key Earnings to Watch

• Axon Enterprise (AXON): The law enforcement tech company will report Monday evening. Analysts anticipate slower growth, though interest is rising in the firm’s drone and surveillance offerings. Shares are currently building a bullish base-on-base pattern.
• MercadoLibre (MELI): Also reporting Monday, the Latin American e-commerce powerhouse is expected to post a 14% earnings increase to $11.93 per share, with revenue up 32% to $6.68 billion. Shares are up 40% year to date.
• Wayfair (W): Despite a 50% stock gain this year, the online furniture retailer is expected to report a 30% decline in Q2 earnings. Revenue is projected to be flat year over year.
• Arista Networks (ANET): The networking company, a beneficiary of cloud and AI infrastructure spending, reports Tuesday. Analysts expect Q2 EPS to rise 24%, with sales increasing 25%. The stock has rebounded over the past six weeks.
• Shopify (SHOP): The e-commerce software firm reports Wednesday. Analysts forecast EPS of $0.29, up 11% from a year ago, on revenue of $2.546 billion (up 25%). Gross merchandise volume is expected to climb 21% to $81.4 billion.
• Occidental Petroleum (OXY): Also due Wednesday, Occidental is expected to post a 72% decline in profit and a 9.4% drop in revenue. Analysts will pay close attention to production guidance in the Permian Basin after CEO Vicki Hollub warned of a possible plateau in output earlier this year.

This content is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or other professional advice. It should not be considered a recommendation to buy or sell any securities or financial instruments. All investments involve risk, including the potential loss of principal. Past performance is not indicative of future results. You should conduct your own research and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions.

U.S. stock futures dropped Friday night as investors weighed newly announced tariffs from former President Donald Trump and underwhelming earnings from Amazon, all ahead of July’s crucial jobs report.

As of 05:55 ET, Dow Jones futures were down 375 points (0.9%), S&P 500 futures slipped 55 points (0.9%), and Nasdaq 100 futures declined 218 points (0.9%).

The previous session saw Wall Street’s major indexes retreat from earlier gains, with escalating trade tensions overshadowing strong results from tech leaders Meta Platforms and Microsoft.

Trump Unleashes New Round of Tariffs

Trump signed an executive order Thursday raising tariffs—up to 50% in some cases—on dozens of countries. The move comes as a “reciprocal tariff” deadline passed after weeks of negotiations.

Key U.S. trade partners such as the EU, Japan, and South Korea will face new duties of 15%, while countries running a trade surplus with the U.S. will see 10% tariffs. Brazil will be hit with 50% levies, and Canada’s tariffs rise to 35% for non-compliant goods under the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement.

The new tariffs are set to take effect at 12:01 a.m. on August 7. Meanwhile, Mexico was granted a 90-day extension to reach a trade deal.

Amazon Falls on Cloud Concerns

Amazon (NASDAQ: AMZN) shares declined in premarket trading after issuing weaker-than-expected operating income guidance for the current quarter. While Amazon Web Services posted $30.9 billion in sales—up 17.5% year-over-year and slightly above expectations—investors were disappointed amid fears AWS is losing market share.

In contrast, Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL) rallied after beating Q3 expectations, helped by strong iPhone sales in China and record-high services revenue.

More corporate earnings are on deck Friday from Chevron, Exxon Mobil, Colgate-Palmolive, Regeneron Pharmaceuticals, and Kimberly-Clark.

All Eyes on July Payrolls

Investors are now awaiting the U.S. Labor Department’s July jobs report, due Friday morning. Economists expect 106,000 new jobs, down from 147,000 in June, with unemployment ticking up to 4.2% from 4.1%.

Earlier this week, the Federal Reserve held interest rates steady for the fifth consecutive meeting, resisting political pressure from Trump to cut rates. While the labor market has held firm, inflation remains above the Fed’s 2% target, and early signs suggest new tariffs may already be pushing up prices on certain trade-exposed goods.

Oil Slips as Tariffs Cloud Outlook

Crude prices edged lower Friday as traders assessed the potential economic drag from the new tariffs.

At 05:55 ET, Brent crude dipped 0.3% to $71.47 per barrel, while U.S. WTI fell 0.4% to $69.01. Both benchmarks are still set to close the week up roughly 5%, supported by Trump’s earlier threat to impose sanctions on

This content is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or other professional advice. It should not be considered a recommendation to buy or sell any securities or financial instruments. All investments involve risk, including the potential loss of principal. Past performance is not indicative of future results. You should conduct your own research and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions.

U.S. stocks edged higher on Wednesday as investors digested a heavy slate of corporate earnings, robust economic data, and awaited the latest Federal Reserve policy decision.

At 09:40 ET, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 20 points, or 0.1%, while the S&P 500 gained 7 points, or 0.1%, and the Nasdaq Composite advanced 45 points, or 0.2%.

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Mega-Cap Tech Earnings in Focus

This week marks the busiest stretch of the earnings season, with 199 S&P 500 companies having reported so far. Nearly 82% have topped profit estimates, according to FactSet.

Wednesday brings the first wave of results from the “Magnificent Seven” mega-cap tech names. Meta Platforms (NASDAQ:META) and Microsoft (NASDAQ:MSFT) are set to report after the bell, followed by Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) and Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN) on Thursday. Other companies posting results include Arm Holdings (NASDAQ:ARM) and Robinhood Markets (NASDAQ:HOOD).

Beyond tech, Starbucks (NASDAQ:SBUX) surged after its third-quarter revenue beat forecasts, signaling progress in its turnaround plan. Humana (NYSE:HUM) climbed after lifting its annual revenue guidance, while Etsy (NASDAQ:ETSY) gained on stronger-than-expected sales, supported by personalized marketing and AI initiatives. VF Corporation (NYSE:VFC) also rallied after surpassing revenue estimates, driven by solid apparel and footwear demand.

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Trade Talks Remain a Headwind

Investor sentiment was dented slightly after two days of U.S.-China trade talks in Sweden ended without a breakthrough. Both sides described the discussions—aimed at extending their 90-day trade truce—as “constructive,” but no major progress was achieved.

Adding to trade tensions, President Trump announced a 25% tariff plus penalties on India, effective August 1, citing its purchases of Russian military equipment and energy. This comes just days after Trump reached a framework trade agreement with the European Union, while negotiations with other countries remain unresolved ahead of the August 1 tariff deadline.

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Fed Policy Meeting to Wrap Up

The Federal Reserve will conclude its July meeting later today and is widely expected to keep interest rates unchanged at 4.25%-4.5%. Chair Jerome Powell and other Fed officials have signaled a more cautious approach to future rate moves, wanting to assess the economic impact of Trump’s aggressive tariff strategy.

The White House has been pressuring the Fed to cut rates to bolster growth, a demand intensified by the latest economic reports. Data released Wednesday showed the U.S. economy grew at an annualized 3.0% in the second quarter, beating forecasts for 2.5% and rebounding from a 0.5% contraction in Q1. Additionally, private payrolls increased by 104,000 in July, sharply higher than expected, following a revised 23,000 decline in June. These figures precede Friday’s closely watched nonfarm payrolls report.

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Oil Prices Extend Gains

Crude prices climbed again Wednesday, building on sharp gains from the previous session. At 06:00 ET, Brent crude was up 0.6% at $72.11 a barrel, while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) rose 0.7% to $69.70. Both benchmarks settled Tuesday at their highest levels since June 20, jumping more than 3% after President Trump warned of additional measures against Russia if it fails to make progress on ending the war in Ukraine.

This content is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or other professional advice. It should not be considered a recommendation to buy or sell any securities or financial instruments. All investments involve risk, including the potential loss of principal. Past performance is not indicative of future results. You should conduct your own research and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions.

The S&P 500 closed lower on Tuesday after hitting a fresh intraday record, as traders digested a wave of corporate earnings and persistent uncertainty over U.S.-China trade negotiations.

At the 4:00 p.m. ET close, the Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 204 points, or 0.5%. The S&P 500 slipped 0.3% after reaching an intraday all-time high of 6,409.26, while the Nasdaq Composite fell 0.4%.

U.S. equities have been trending higher in recent days following weekend news of a trade agreement between the United States and the European Union.

Trade Talks Remain a Key Focus

Markets kept a close eye on developments in Washington’s ongoing trade talks with Beijing. U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer said Tuesday that negotiations were “heading in the right direction,” though he stopped short of providing details on a potential deal or whether the current tariff truce will be extended.

If no extension is reached, tariffs on Chinese imports could revert to higher April 2 levels. Earlier this year, both nations struck preliminary agreements that helped ease tensions in a trade war marked by escalating tariffs and restrictions on key rare-earth mineral exports.

Fed Meeting Kicks Off

The Federal Reserve began its latest two-day policy meeting Tuesday, with a decision expected Wednesday. Interest rates are widely anticipated to remain at 4.25%–4.5%, but investors will watch for hints on whether cuts could come later this year.

Fed Chair Jerome Powell has maintained a cautious “wait-and-see” stance amid uncertainty over the Trump administration’s trade policies. However, some FOMC members have recently voiced support for easing rates.

President Donald Trump again urged the central bank on Monday to cut rates to help boost economic growth.

The Bank of Japan will also hold a policy meeting Thursday, with no changes expected. On the same day, investors will parse June’s PCE price index—the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge—for further insight into how tariffs may be impacting consumer prices.

This week is also packed with labor market data: JOLTS Job Openings (Tuesday), ADP private payrolls (Wednesday), jobless claims (Thursday), and the July jobs report (Friday).

Earnings Season in Full Swing

This week marks the busiest stretch of earnings season, with more than 150 S&P 500 companies scheduled to release quarterly results. Tech giants from the so-called “Magnificent Seven” are in focus: Meta Platforms (NASDAQ:META) and Microsoft (NASDAQ:MSFT) report Wednesday, followed by Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) and Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN) on Thursday.

Notable stock moves Tuesday included:

• Merck (NYSE:MRK) fell after announcing job and cost cuts designed to save $3 billion annually. Q2 results were weighed down by soft demand for its Gardasil vaccine in China.
• Novo Nordisk (NYSE:NVO) slumped after lowering its full-year sales and profit outlook for the second time in 2025, citing weaker-than-expected demand for its weight-loss drug Wegovy.
• PayPal (NASDAQ:PYPL) declined after guiding for flat quarterly profit compared with last year, despite raising its full-year forecast.
• United Parcel Service (NYSE:UPS) tumbled 10.6% after revenue and profit dropped in Q2 amid weaker demand driven by trade policy volatility.
• UnitedHealth (NYSE:UNH) edged lower after reinstating its full-year profit forecast, which still fell short of analysts’ already-lowered expectations.
• Whirlpool (NYSE:WHR) plunged following disappointing second-quarter earnings and a sharp cut to its 2025 guidance.

Visa (NYSE:V) will report after the closing bell.

This content is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or other professional advice. It should not be considered a recommendation to buy or sell any securities or financial instruments. All investments involve risk, including the potential loss of principal. Past performance is not indicative of future results. You should conduct your own research and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions.

U.S. Inflation Rises as Corporate Earnings Fuel Market Highs

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United States

Strong Earnings Lift Markets to New Highs
The S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite both hit new all-time highs last week, driven by strong Q2 earnings and generally positive economic data. The Russell 2000 also rose, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average and S&P Midcap 400 ended slightly lower.

The earnings season kicked off with major banks like JPMorgan Chase and Citigroup reporting better-than-expected results. Later in the week, consumer-facing companies such as PepsiCo, United Airlines, and Netflix also topped forecasts.

NVIDIA rallied after receiving approval from the Trump administration to sell its H2O AI chips to China. The company, which recently hit a $4 trillion market cap, surged on the news.

Inflation Picks Up; Retail Sales Rebound
June CPI rose 0.3% month over month—its biggest jump in five months—matching expectations. On a year-over-year basis, inflation accelerated to 2.7%, while core CPI rose to 2.9%, up from 2.8% in May. Prices for household goods, recreation, and footwear saw notable increases, partly offset by declining vehicle prices.

Retail sales rose 0.6% in June, rebounding from May’s 0.9% drop. Midweek market jitters over reports that President Trump might remove Fed Chair Jerome Powell were quickly reversed after Trump denied the rumor.

Corporate Bonds Outperform Treasuries
Intermediate- and long-term Treasury yields held steady, while short-term yields edged lower amid speculation around the Fed. Investment-grade corporate bonds outperformed Treasuries, with new issues largely oversubscribed.

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Europe

Markets Mixed as Investors Eye Trade Talks
The STOXX Europe 600 finished flat, as investors monitored progress in U.S.-EU trade discussions. Italy’s FTSE MIB rose 0.58%, France’s CAC 40 and Germany’s DAX were little changed, and the UK’s FTSE 100 gained 0.57%, helped by a weaker pound.

UK Inflation Surges; Labor Market Softens
UK inflation surprised to the upside, rising to 3.6% in June—the highest since January 2024—driven by higher fuel prices. Core services inflation held at 4.7%, showing persistent cost pressures.

The job market weakened. The unemployment rate ticked up to 4.7%, and payrolls fell by 41,000 in June. Wage growth (excluding bonuses) came in at 5.0%, slightly above forecasts but down from 5.3% in May.

Eurozone Industrial Output Rebounds
Industrial production in the euro area rose 1.7% in May, beating expectations and reversing April’s 2.2% drop. Strong output in energy, capital goods, and non-durable consumer goods contributed to the gain. Year over year, output rose 3.7%.

The region’s trade surplus widened to €16.2 billion, up from €12.7 billion a year ago, as exports grew and imports fell.

German Sentiment at 3-Year High
Germany’s ZEW economic sentiment index rose for the third month in a row, reaching 52.7—the highest since February 2022. Optimism was driven by hopes for EU stimulus and resolution of U.S.-EU trade tensions.

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Asia-Pacific

Japan: Modest Gains Ahead of Elections
Japanese equities posted moderate gains, with the Nikkei 225 up 0.63% and the TOPIX rising 0.40%. Investors await results from the July 20 Upper House election, which could impact Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba’s coalition majority.

The 10-year JGB yield rose to 1.53%, while the yen weakened toward 148 per U.S. dollar.

Cooling Inflation, Weak Exports
Core CPI rose 3.3% in June, below expectations and down from 3.7% in May, due mainly to lower energy costs. Exports fell 0.5% year over year, missing forecasts, with declines in autos, parts, and pharmaceuticals. A new 25% U.S. tariff on Japanese goods is set to take effect August 1, though bilateral talks are ongoing.

China: Solid GDP, But Risks Loom
Mainland Chinese markets advanced, with the CSI 300 up 1.09% and the Shanghai Composite up 0.69%. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng jumped 2.84%.

China’s Q2 GDP grew 5.2% year over year, slightly above expectations, easing near-term pressure for stimulus. However, deflation concerns, soft retail sales, and upcoming U.S. trade deadlines pose headwinds.

The real estate downturn persists: new home prices fell 0.27% in June, while existing home prices dropped 0.61%. Residential sales fell 12.6% year over year—the largest decline in 2025 so far.

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Other Key Markets

Indonesia: Rate Cut and U.S. Trade Deal
Indonesia’s central bank cut its benchmark rate from 5.50% to 5.25%, citing lower inflation forecasts and the need to support growth. Separately, the U.S. and Indonesia finalized a trade deal that set tariffs at 19%—down from an initially proposed 32%. Indonesia also agreed to purchase Boeing aircraft and import over $20 billion in U.S. energy and agricultural goods.

Peru: Central Bank Holds Steady
Peru’s central bank kept its policy rate at 4.50%, as expected. Annual inflation remained at 1.7% in June, with stable 12-month inflation expectations at 2.3%. Policymakers noted that global inflation expectations—particularly in the U.S.—may slow the path back to target inflation locally.

This content is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or other professional advice. It should not be considered a recommendation to buy or sell any securities or financial instruments. All investments involve risk, including the potential loss of principal. Past performance is not indicative of future results. You should conduct your own research and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions.

U.S. stocks ended Friday on a mixed note, with the S&P 500 closing flat amid renewed trade tensions with Europe. Despite the muted session, the benchmark index posted a gain for the week.

By the closing bell, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 142 points (0.3%), the S&P 500 was virtually unchanged, and the NASDAQ Composite ticked up 0.1%.

Market sentiment took a hit after the Financial Times reported that President Donald Trump is considering tariffs of 15% to 20% on goods imported from the European Union. The proposed levy—well above the 10% the EU had hoped for—suggests trade negotiations may have stalled. With the August 1 deadline fast approaching, the move appears designed to pressure the EU into making broader concessions.

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Earnings Season Gathers Momentum

Investors continue to digest second-quarter earnings, which have been largely better than expected so far:

• American Express (AXP) climbed after the credit card company beat profit estimates, fueled by strong spending from high-income consumers.
• 3M (MMM) rose after raising its full-year earnings outlook, benefiting from cost-cutting efforts and a shift toward higher-margin products.
• Charles Schwab (SCHW) advanced after reporting strong quarterly results driven by asset growth and improved net interest margins.
• Netflix (NFLX) delivered solid earnings and raised its revenue guidance for the year, but shares pulled back slightly as results fell short of sky-high analyst expectations. Even so, Netflix stock is up over 43% year-to-date, supported by confidence in its dominance in the streaming sector.

Looking ahead, the earnings calendar remains busy next week, with reports expected from Coca-Cola (KO), Texas Instruments (TXN), Alphabet (GOOGL), and Tesla (TSLA).

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Consumer Sentiment Improves as Inflation Expectations Ease

The University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment index rose to 61.8, slightly above expectations of 61.5. One-year inflation expectations dropped to 4.4%, down from 5.0% previously—an encouraging sign for consumers and policymakers.

Recent economic data has shown resilience: retail sales beat forecasts, weekly jobless claims declined, and June inflation remained largely in line with estimates. However, tariffs are beginning to put upward pressure on select consumer goods.

Amid these developments, the Federal Reserve has adopted a cautious, wait-and-see stance. Still, Fed Governor Christopher Waller said Thursday that a rate cut at the Fed’s next meeting could be warranted, citing growing risks to the economy.

Waller also emphasized that the recent inflation uptick driven by tariffs is likely temporary and shouldn’t alter the Fed’s broader policy outlook.

Meanwhile, President Trump continues to push the Fed to act more aggressively in lowering interest rates to support economic growth.

This content is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or other professional advice. It should not be considered a recommendation to buy or sell any securities or financial instruments. All investments involve risk, including the potential loss of principal. Past performance is not indicative of future results. You should conduct your own research and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions.

U.S. stocks closed lower on Friday, capping a losing week for the S&P 500 as renewed fears of a global trade war rattled investors. The market decline followed President Donald Trump’s announcement of a 35% tariff on Canadian imports beginning August 1.

At the close, the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 279 points (0.6%), while the S&P 500 slipped 0.4% and the NASDAQ Composite shed 0.2%.

Trump Imposes 35% Tariff on Canada, Heightens Trade Tensions

Both the S&P 500 and NASDAQ retreated from record highs after Trump unveiled a letter detailing new tariffs on Canadian goods, effective next month. These duties add to existing sector-specific tariffs and aim, according to the president, to pressure Ottawa into curbing fentanyl trafficking into the U.S.

Trump also accused Canada of unfair trade practices, citing already high Canadian tariffs on various American sectors.

This week, the administration issued similar letters targeting other major economies: a 25% tariff on goods from South Korea and Japan, and a 50% duty on Brazilian imports. Brazil warned it would respond with equal measures if the U.S. proceeds.

Trump added that the European Union could also be hit with tariff notices as soon as Friday, casting doubt over the direction of trade negotiations with Washington.

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Banks to Kick Off Q2 Earnings Season

Looking ahead, the second-quarter earnings season begins next week. Major banks including JPMorgan Chase (JPM), Wells Fargo (WFC), Citigroup (C), and Bank of New York Mellon (BK) are all scheduled to report Tuesday.

In individual stock moves, Levi Strauss (LEVI) gained after raising its sales outlook, signaling it can absorb some of the tariff impact in the near term.

PENN Entertainment (PENN) tumbled more than 7% amid concerns over slowing growth, following weaker-than-expected gaming revenues in Iowa and Indiana.

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All Eyes on Next Week’s Inflation Data

Friday’s economic calendar was light, but investors are already looking ahead to next week’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) report for June, which is expected to show a 0.3% monthly increase.

Minutes from the Fed’s June meeting revealed only a few officials were open to cutting interest rates this month. Most remained cautious, citing potential inflationary pressures stemming from the new tariffs.

Fed fund futures currently price in a low probability of a July rate cut, though a move in September appears increasingly likely.

This content is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or other professional advice. It should not be considered a recommendation to buy or sell any securities or financial instruments. All investments involve risk, including the potential loss of principal. Past performance is not indicative of future results. You should conduct your own research and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions.