U.S. equity futures were marginally higher early Wednesday as traders positioned themselves ahead of a pivotal Federal Reserve rate announcement. Markets broadly expect the central bank to deliver what has been dubbed a “hawkish cut”—a rate reduction paired with guidance that further easing may be limited. Even so, traders continue to pencil in more rate cuts for 2026, particularly as President Donald Trump — a long-standing advocate for swift monetary loosening — reportedly prepares to conduct his final set of interviews for candidates to succeed Jerome Powell as Fed Chair.
Oracle (NYSE:ORCL) will also draw considerable attention after the closing bell, with investors eager for updates on the tech giant’s artificial intelligence initiatives.
Futures hold steady as markets wait for clarity
U.S. futures were mostly unchanged in pre-market trading. By 02:52 ET, Dow futures were flat, while S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 futures posted small gains of 0.1%.
Tuesday’s trading session ended mixed: the Dow Jones Industrial Average and S&P 500 slipped, whereas the Nasdaq Composite edged 0.1% higher. A slight uptick in October job openings — coupled with subdued hiring and a five-year low in resignations — added to concerns about broad economic uncertainty, which some analysts have tied to sweeping U.S. tariff policies.
Fed likely to take a cautious approach with a “hawkish cut”
The Labor Department’s recent data release cemented expectations for a rate cut, but markets believe the Fed will emphasize a more restrictive tone around additional easing. According to CME FedWatch, the probability of a quarter-point cut stands near 88%. The central bank has already trimmed rates twice—in September and October—bringing the target range to 3.75%–4%.
Policymakers appear unusually divided, according to media reports, with inflation concerns and a lack of timely economic data — due to the record-breaking U.S. government shutdown — complicating their deliberations. A fresh summary of the Fed’s economic projections is also due.
Jerome Powell is expected to support a cut but use his press conference to telegraph a high threshold for further reductions. Whether this stance holds will become clearer early next year, once officials have access to more up-to-date employment and inflation numbers.
Trump preparing final interviews for Fed Chair — WSJ
The Wall Street Journal reports that President Trump is preparing to launch the final round of interviews for the next head of the Federal Reserve.
Trump is expected to meet former Fed Governor Kevin Warsh on Wednesday, with additional candidates scheduled shortly afterward. One of the leading contenders is Kevin Hassett, a White House adviser who has repeatedly echoed Trump’s calls for aggressive rate cuts. Although a Fed Chair holds significant influence, Hassett would still represent only one vote on the 12-member FOMC.
ING analysts note that rate markets have already priced in “so much easing,” despite expectations for a “hawkish cut” today. They argue:
“Presumably, this is the Kevin Hassett effect, where his arrival at the Fed in February can throw a dovish cloak over the FOMC outlook.”
Oracle to reveal quarterly performance
Oracle’s upcoming earnings release is set to dominate the corporate calendar. Analysts are keen to hear more about the company’s AI ambitions.
Following its deepening partnership with OpenAI, Oracle has shifted from a secondary cloud provider to a critical backbone for processing-intensive AI workloads. Earlier this year, the company’s contract backlog surged above $400 billion, fueling a dramatic rally that briefly pushed its valuation close to $1 trillion and lifted Larry Ellison among the world’s wealthiest individuals.
However, some of that enthusiasm has faded, amid fears that Oracle is overly dependent on OpenAI and has taken on substantial debt to expand its data center network.
Adobe earnings incoming
Adobe (NASDAQ:ADBE) will also report results after the market close. Its shares have declined more than 21% year-to-date, trailing the Nasdaq Composite by a wide margin.
In a research note, Stifel analysts wrote that it is “no secret” that a central “overhang” for the stock is the belief that AI could reshape creative workflows, “making creators more efficient by orders of magnitude and shrinking the number of addressable seats over time.”
Stifel added that catalysts to “quickly turn sentiment around” remain “foggy,” though they see the company in the “early days” of a “critical and successful AI-induced strategy pivot.”
They also suggested Adobe could gain a competitive edge by acting as a neutral hub within the AI ecosystem — a “Switzerland” of sorts — where users can “test, leverage, and pay for third-party model usage.”
