Category: Market Summary

U.S. stock futures traded lower on Thursday as investors awaited the release of the June non-farm payrolls report, a key economic indicator that could shape expectations for Federal Reserve policy. Falling oil prices and renewed weakness in semiconductor shares also weighed on market sentiment during the final trading session of the holiday-shortened week.

Wall Street futures retreat ahead of key data

As of 07:13 GMT, Dow Jones futures were down 95 points, or 0.2%, while S&P 500 futures fell 22 points, or 0.3%. Nasdaq 100 futures underperformed, dropping 250 points, or 0.8%.

The previous session saw U.S. markets finish lower after semiconductor stocks came under renewed pressure. Reports that Meta Platforms is exploring ways to commercialise excess AI computing capacity added to concerns that demand for new chips could moderate.

Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh acknowledged that inflation risks have eased but maintained that it was too early to provide guidance on future interest rate decisions. Softer-than-expected private employment and manufacturing figures also prompted investors to reduce expectations of a near-term rate increase.

Labour market figures could reshape Fed expectations

The June non-farm payrolls report is expected to show that the U.S. economy added 114,000 jobs, down from 172,000 in May, while the unemployment rate is forecast to remain at 4.3%.

Recent payroll reports have consistently exceeded expectations, reinforcing confidence in the labour market. However, weaker private-sector employment data released earlier this week has raised doubts about whether the Federal Reserve will need to tighten monetary policy further this year.

Crude prices decline as diplomacy continues

Oil prices continued to move lower after officials reported constructive progress in indirect negotiations between the United States and Iran.

Although no agreement has yet been reached, comments from Qatar, President Donald Trump and Vice President JD Vance suggested discussions remain active, easing concerns over supply disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz.

According to Deutsche Bank, “[T]he newsflow helped to bring oil prices down and ease investor concern about inflation.”

Semiconductor sector under renewed pressure

Technology shares across Asia weakened after reports suggested OpenAI had significantly improved the efficiency of its AI models, reducing demand for graphics processors, while Meta is evaluating a cloud platform offering spare AI computing capacity.

The developments weighed on major chipmakers including Samsung Electronics, SK Hynix, Advantest, Tokyo Electron and Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co.

U.S. set to introduce voluntary AI standards

The Financial Times reported that the Trump administration may unveil voluntary guidelines for advanced artificial intelligence models as early as next week.

The proposed framework would establish common benchmarks for evaluating frontier AI systems before launch, replacing the current case-by-case regulatory approach.

European equity markets were little changed on Thursday as investors weighed cautious comments from leading central bankers against regional economic data while awaiting the release of a closely watched U.S. employment report.

The pan-European STOXX 600 hovered around 638.66 points in early trading after ending the previous session at its third-highest closing level on record. The benchmark gained more than 10% over the previous quarter.

Trading across the region was subdued. Germany’s DAX slipped 0.2%, France’s CAC 40 added 0.3%, London’s FTSE 100 eased 0.1%, while Italy’s FTSE MIB traded broadly flat.

Europe avoids technology-led sell-off

Although technology stocks came under renewed pressure across Asian markets overnight, European equities proved relatively resilient.

The region’s lower exposure to the world’s largest technology companies compared with U.S. and Asian markets helped cushion European indices from the latest weakness in the sector.

However, that defensive positioning also meant European markets captured less of the powerful artificial intelligence-driven rally that propelled global equities to record highs during the previous quarter.

Sintra comments reinforce cautious rate outlook

Investor sentiment remained restrained following comments from policymakers attending the European Central Bank’s annual forum in Sintra, Portugal.

Federal Reserve officials and ECB President Christine Lagarde indicated that while inflation risks are becoming more balanced, it remains too early to expect a rapid shift towards more accommodative monetary policy.

Lloyds Bank analysts said, “The ECB has retained a cautious approach as fears of ‘second-round’ effects linger.”

They added, “The market is pricing for another 25-basis-point hike by September, then an extended hold through to the middle of next year, pushing back against a more inflationary scenario.”

U.S. jobs report remains the key focus

Attention has now turned to the U.S. non-farm payrolls report, which is expected to provide fresh direction for global financial markets.

Economists forecast that around 100,000 jobs were created in June. Investors will scrutinise the figures for clues about the Federal Reserve’s next policy moves and whether expectations for up to two interest rate cuts by the end of the year remain justified.

Sodexo leads gainers

Among individual stocks, Sodexo (EU:SW) climbed more than 7% after reporting stronger-than-expected third-quarter revenue and raising its full-year sales guidance.

FTSE 100 opens little changed as Currys posts stronger profits and Wizz Air reports passenger growth while Brent crude prices ease.

Market Overview

UK markets opened little changed, with the FTSE 100 edging 0.01 per cent lower to 10,477.76, while the Euronext 100 also slipped 0.01 per cent. Germany’s DAX outperformed, rising 0.25 per cent to 25,102.51. Overnight, the Nasdaq closed lower at 26,040.03 and the S&P 500 finished at 7,483.23. Investors weighed dovish interest rate signals against cautious European sentiment, while lower oil prices reflected improving US-Iran talks and expectations of ample crude supply.

Against sterling, the US dollar, euro and Australian dollar strengthened slightly, while the Swiss franc and Japanese yen weakened. Bitcoin advanced slightly. In commodities, copper and gold traded lower, Brent crude declined as easing geopolitical concerns weighed on prices, and natural gas also moved lower.

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Market Numbers

FTSE 100: Down (-0.01%), 10,477.76
Euronext 100: Down (-0.01%), 1,906.08
DAX: Up (+0.25%), 25,102.51
NASDAQ: Down, 26,040.03
S&P 500: Down, 7,483.23

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In the Headlines

Profit Growth – Currys (LSE:CURY)
Currys reported higher annual profits and increased shareholder returns, supported by a strong performance from its Nordic operations. The results underline improving operational momentum and provide a positive signal for investors following a period of restructuring.

Traffic Growth – Wizz Air (LSE:WIZZ)
Wizz Air reported 27 per cent growth in June passenger numbers and confirmed the rollout of Starlink in-flight Wi-Fi across its fleet. The update highlights continued demand strength alongside investment in customer experience.

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Currencies (vs GBP)

USD: Up (+0.01%), $1.3278
CHF: Down (-0.03%), Fr.1.0745
EUR: Up (+0.01%), €1.1671
JPY: Down (-0.02%), ¥215.8345
AUD: Up (+0.01%), $1.9270
Bitcoin (BTC/GBP): Up, £45,086.66

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Commodities

Copper: Down
Gold: Down
Brent Crude: Down
Natural Gas: Down

The FTSE 100 moved higher on Thursday after early losses faded, with investor sentiment supported by dovish comments from leading central bankers at the ECB Forum on Central Banking in Sintra. The more supportive monetary policy outlook helped offset pressure from falling oil prices as optimism grew over progress in talks between the United States and Iran.

By 07:23 GMT, the FTSE 100 was up 0.14%, while Germany’s DAX gained 0.09% and France’s CAC 40 advanced 0.50%. Sterling strengthened 0.28% against the U.S. dollar to 1.3314.

Central bank comments lift market sentiment

Comments from policymakers helped improve investor confidence after senior officials signalled that interest rates may remain on hold.

Federal Reserve Governor Kevin Warsh, European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde and Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey all adopted a more accommodative tone during a panel discussion in Sintra. Jefferies strategist Mohit Kumar described Bailey as “probably the most clear,” arguing the UK is experiencing a “soft patch” where higher mortgage rates have “effectively tightened” monetary policy without the need for further interest rate increases.

Lagarde also pointed to the sharp fall in energy prices, noting oil “was at $120 a few weeks ago and is now close to $70.”

Jefferies said the discussion “supports our view of no (further) hikes this year from the Fed, ECB or BoE.”

Oil prices fall as Iran talks make progress

Energy markets remained under pressure after fresh signs of diplomatic progress between Washington and Tehran.

Iran’s Deputy Foreign Minister Kazem Gharibabadi criticised a U.S.-led regional security summit in Bahrain, writing on X that “Hormuz is defined under Iran’s command, not CENTCOM” and that a military summit “cannot establish legal order and security for the Persian Gulf.”

Meanwhile, Qatar and Pakistan said in a joint statement that “positive progress was made” during indirect talks in Doha between U.S. and Iranian officials, with further negotiations expected after the funeral processions for Iran’s former Supreme Leader.

U.S. President Donald Trump told reporters that “the denuclearization of Iran is moving along well” and described the Doha discussions as “very good.” Vice President JD Vance also said “talks are going well,” while noting that negotiations over Iran’s nuclear programme were still at an early stage.

Brent crude declined 1.23% to $70.69 a barrel, while WTI crude fell 1.3% to $67.69. Gold futures slipped 0.20% to $4,074.67 an ounce, although spot gold rose 0.76% to $4,062.08.

Chip stocks pressured by Meta AI plans

Jefferies also noted that semiconductor shares came under pressure after reports that Meta plans to monetise excess artificial intelligence computing capacity through a cloud offering.

The development weighed on Asian technology stocks overnight, with South Korea’s KOSPI among the weakest-performing major indices.

Currys gains after strong annual results

Among UK-listed companies, Currys (LSE:CURY) traded higher after reporting an 18% increase in annual profit and saying trading had started strongly in the new financial year, supported by sales growth across both its UK and Nordic businesses.

Investors turn cautious at the start of the second half

US equity futures traded lower on Wednesday as investors prepared for a busy day of economic events, including comments from Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh, fresh manufacturing data and diplomatic developments involving the US and Iran.

At 03:16 ET, Dow Jones futures were down 202 points, or 0.4%, while S&P 500 futures declined 33 points and Nasdaq 100 futures fell 195 points, representing losses of 0.4% and 0.6%, respectively.

Wall Street finished Tuesday’s session in positive territory, with technology stocks leading gains after a volatile second quarter. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index also posted another strong advance, completing its best quarterly performance since its launch in the early 1990s.

Labour market strength keeps rate hike expectations alive

Recent US economic data painted a mixed picture.

Job openings for May exceeded forecasts, while housing and consumer confidence indicators weakened. Combined with hawkish remarks from Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack, the stronger labour market data reinforced expectations that the Federal Reserve could still raise interest rates as early as July.

Markets await policy clues from Kevin Warsh

Attention will centre on Kevin Warsh’s appearance at the ECB Forum on Central Banking in Sintra later today.

Since taking over from Jerome Powell, Warsh has suggested the Federal Reserve could reduce its reliance on forward guidance and reassess the way it communicates monetary policy.

Investors will also be listening closely for his assessment of inflation and economic growth, particularly after easing oil prices reduced some concerns over energy-driven inflation following the preliminary US-Iran agreement.

Geopolitics and manufacturing data remain in focus

Diplomatic talks involving US and Iranian representatives in Qatar are also being monitored closely, although officials have confirmed that no direct high-level negotiations are currently scheduled.

Meanwhile, economists expect the ISM Manufacturing PMI to edge down slightly to 53.8 in June from 54.0 in May, while the ADP employment report will provide another snapshot of the US labour market ahead of Thursday’s official payrolls release.

Nike disappoints despite earnings beat

Nike (NYSE:NKE) shares declined in premarket trading after the company warned that its turnaround remains in its early stages.

Although quarterly revenue exceeded expectations, continued weakness in China weighed on overall performance.

Chief Executive Elliott Hill told investors that results “aren’t there yet,” adding that the company is not “living up to our full potential.”

Markets pause ahead of key economic events

European equity markets opened mixed on Wednesday as investors awaited the release of the eurozone’s latest inflation figures and a closely watched panel discussion featuring some of the world’s leading central bankers, including newly appointed Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh.

The pan-European STOXX 600 slipped 0.2% in early trading after reaching a record high on Tuesday. Germany’s DAX gained 0.2%, while France’s CAC 40 fell 0.3% and London’s FTSE 100 declined 0.2%. Spain’s IBEX 35 and Italy’s FTSE MIB both traded 0.3% lower.

Inflation data expected to influence policy outlook

Markets are focused on the eurozone’s preliminary inflation reading for June, with economists expecting annual headline inflation to slow to 3.0% from 3.2% in May.

Investors will assess whether price pressures are continuing to ease following the European Central Bank’s recent interest rate increases, introduced in response to the sharp rise in energy prices triggered by the outbreak of the US-Iran conflict.

Although crude oil prices have largely returned to levels seen before the conflict and shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has improved, geopolitical developments remain a source of uncertainty.

Reports from the Wall Street Journal suggested that US President Donald Trump recently considered resuming large-scale military action against Iran before deciding to continue diplomatic negotiations. Representatives from both countries are expected to participate in mediated talks in Doha.

Sintra forum takes centre stage

Attention will also turn to the ECB Forum on Central Banking in Sintra, Portugal, where senior policymakers from the world’s leading central banks are due to discuss the global economic outlook.

The event will feature the first international appearance by Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh since succeeding Jerome Powell in May.

Investors look for clues on future interest rates

Markets will closely examine Warsh’s remarks for further insight into the direction of US monetary policy.

Although he was appointed by President Trump, who has repeatedly argued in favour of lower interest rates, Warsh has recently adopted a more hawkish tone, warning about the risk of persistent structural inflation.

Investors will also analyse comments from European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde, Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey and Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem for indications of when major central banks may begin easing monetary policy as the impact of the energy crisis continues to fade.

Markets open lower ahead of key economic updates

The FTSE 100 traded lower on Wednesday as investors adopted a cautious stance at the beginning of the new quarter, awaiting global manufacturing PMI releases, developments in Iran-Qatar negotiations and fresh comments from Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey on the inflation outlook.

The FTSE 100 fell 0.29% in early trading. Germany’s DAX eased 0.03%, while France’s CAC 40 declined 0.49%. Sterling also weakened against the US dollar, with GBP/USD falling 0.23% to 1.3232.

Geopolitics and inflation remain in focus

Investor sentiment was influenced by renewed diplomatic efforts in Doha, where Qatar’s Prime Minister met US envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner alongside Iranian negotiators for technical discussions described by Qatar’s foreign ministry as taking place “whether direct or indirect.”

Meanwhile, Iran’s chief negotiator, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, described the Strait of Hormuz as Tehran’s “greatest instrument of power,” adding that negotiations on a final agreement would not begin until the provisions of the existing memorandum of understanding had been implemented.

Speaking to CNBC, Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey said inflation would likely have returned to the central bank’s 2% target around April or May had it not been for the recent conflict.

“It’s going to take longer,” Bailey said, pointing to a weakening economy and a softer labour market as factors allowing policymakers to remain patient despite some members of the Monetary Policy Committee favouring tighter monetary policy.

UK inflation currently stands at 2.8% and is expected to rise towards 3.2% later this year as higher energy prices continue to feed through into the economy.

UK housing market shows mixed picture

New data from Nationwide showed annual UK house price growth accelerated to 2.2% in June from 1.7% in May, although prices were unchanged on a seasonally adjusted monthly basis. The average UK home is now valued at £277,484.

Chief Economist Robert Gardner said the housing market had “softened a little in recent months” because of uncertainty surrounding the Middle East, higher energy prices and elevated mortgage rates. However, he noted that the Iran-US memorandum of understanding had helped reduce oil prices from recent highs, potentially easing pressure on interest rates.

Northern Ireland remained the UK’s strongest-performing housing market with annual price growth of 8.6% during the second quarter, while the Outer South East recorded the weakest performance with growth of just 0.1%.

Oil rises while gold extends losses

Brent crude increased 0.25% to $73.13 a barrel, while US West Texas Intermediate crude gained 0.14% to $69.60.

Gold prices continued to weaken, with gold futures falling 1.43% to $3,981.05 an ounce and spot gold declining 0.97% to $3,969.62.

UK corporate highlights

CMC Markets (LSE:CMCX) upgraded its FY2027 net operating income guidance after continued strong expansion in its B2B trading platform business.

Topps Tiles (LSE:TPT) warned that full-year profit is expected to come in only slightly above £6.5 million as softer consumer demand and recent heatwaves weighed on trading.

Greggs (LSE:GRG) announced that long-serving Chief Financial Officer Richard Hutton will retire at the end of 2026, with Ben Waldron appointed as his successor.

Associated British Foods (LSE:ABF) maintained its full-year guidance outside its Sugar division after Primark delivered 3% sales growth during the third quarter.

FTSE 100 opens steady as investors monitor PMI data and geopolitics while ABF warns on profits, Topps Tiles flags weaker trading and Brent crude rises.

Market Overview

UK markets opened mixed, with the FTSE 100 edging 0.001 per cent higher to 10,497.60, while the Euronext 100 slipped 0.02 per cent to 1,925.91, and the DAX fell 0.04% to 24,986.41. Overnight, the Nasdaq closed higher at 26,213.72 and the S&P 500 gained to 7,499.36 as investors balanced stronger US technology stocks against caution ahead of PMI data, eurozone inflation figures, central bank commentary and developments surrounding Iran-Qatar diplomacy.

Commodity markets reflected ongoing geopolitical uncertainty. Brent crude firmed as hopes for renewed US-Iran engagement faded, while copper and natural gas weakened and gold also fell. Against sterling, the US dollar strengthened, the euro, Swiss franc and Australian dollar were little changed, while the Japanese yen weakened. Bitcoin traded slightly higher versus sterling.

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Market Numbers

FTSE 100: Up (+0.00%), 10,497.60
Euronext 100: Down (-0.02%), 1,925.91
DAX: Down (-0.04%), 24,986.41
NASDAQ: Up, 26,213.72
S&P 500: Up, 7,499.36

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In the Headlines

Profit warning – Associated British Foods (LSE:ABF)
Primark owner Associated British Foods warned full-year profits are expected to be lower after higher natural gas prices increased costs at its sugar business. The update highlights continued pressure on energy-intensive operations despite resilient retail trading.

Retail slowdown – Topps Tiles (LSE:TPT)
Topps Tiles said prolonged hot weather added to already challenging trading conditions, with the heatwave reducing customer footfall. The update underlines the pressures facing UK discretionary retailers despite broader signs of consumer resilience.

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Currencies (vs GBP)

USD: Down (-0.02%), $1.3250
CHF: Up (+0.01%), Fr.1.0716
EUR: Unchanged (0.00%), €1.1609
JPY: Down (-0.01%), ¥215.4925
AUD: Unchanged (0.00%), $1.9169
Bitcoin (BTC/GBP): Up, £44,310

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Commodities

Copper: Down
Gold: Down
Brent Crude: Up
Natural Gas: Down

Traders lock in gains after Monday’s strong advance

U.S. stock futures pointed to a modestly lower open on Tuesday as investors appeared ready to take profits after the previous session’s broad rally.

The cautious tone follows Monday’s powerful advance, which carried the Dow Jones Industrial Average to another record closing high and encouraged some traders to reduce exposure after recent gains.

Higher oil prices also weighed on sentiment, with U.S. crude futures rising 0.6% after jumping 2.2% during Monday’s session.

The latest gains in crude have been driven by uncertainty over possible diplomatic talks between the United States and Iran. President Donald Trump said negotiations were scheduled to take place in Qatar on Tuesday, while a spokesperson for Iran’s Foreign Ministry reportedly denied that any meeting had been arranged.

Investors await key U.S. economic reports

Despite the weaker outlook for the market open, investors are expected to remain cautious ahead of several important U.S. economic releases due later this week, including the closely watched monthly employment report.

Those figures are likely to shape expectations for the U.S. economy and the Federal Reserve’s next policy decisions.

Technology stocks led Monday’s market rebound

Wall Street ended Monday’s session firmly higher after overcoming early volatility, with all three major U.S. indices posting strong gains.

The Nasdaq climbed 522.53 points, or 2.1%, to finish at 25,820.14, while the S&P 500 gained 86.41 points, or 1.2%, to close at 7,440.43. The Dow added 306.63 points, or 0.6%, ending the day at a record 52,182.74 after giving back part of its intraday advance.

Technology companies were the primary driver of the rally, helping the Nasdaq recover following last week’s 4.6% decline.

Alphabet (NASDAQ:GOOGL) rose 4.8% after the Google parent company joined the Dow Jones Industrial Average.

Semiconductor stocks outperform broader market

Chipmakers were among the session’s strongest performers, lifting the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index by 3.8%.

Networking and computer hardware shares also posted solid gains, with the NYSE Arca Networking Index advancing 3.7% and the NYSE Arca Computer Hardware Index adding 2.4%.

Elsewhere, brokerage stocks weakened, dragging the NYSE Arca Broker/Dealer Index down 2.2%. Steelmakers, airlines and gold miners also declined, partially offsetting the technology-led rally.

Markets also remained focused on geopolitical developments after reports suggested the United States and Iran had agreed to temporarily suspend hostilities following weekend military exchanges.

President Donald Trump later stated on Truth Social that Iran had requested a meeting in Doha, Qatar.