Category: Market Summary

U.S. equity futures traded slightly in negative territory on Wednesday as investors continued to track the uncertain course of the conflict in the Middle East. Oil prices fluctuated following reports that the International Energy Agency may consider a record release of emergency reserves. Markets are also awaiting key U.S. inflation figures later in the session, while Oracle issued a stronger revenue outlook supported by robust demand for artificial intelligence data centers.

U.S. futures edge lower

As of 04:51 ET, futures tied to major U.S. stock indexes were modestly down. Dow futures declined by 98 points, or 0.2%, S&P 500 futures slipped by 5 points, or 0.1%, and Nasdaq 100 futures fell by 20 points, or 0.1%.

The previous session on Wall Street ended with mixed results. The Dow Jones Industrial Average and the S&P 500 both closed slightly lower, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite managed a small gain.

Investors spent much of the session focused on developments in the Middle East, where the United States warned it could launch its most intense wave of strikes against Iran since the start of its joint military campaign with Israel late last month.

Despite the escalating rhetoric, equity markets remained relatively steady. Analysts at Vital Knowledge noted that investors appeared to look beyond the comments, while sentiment also received support from stronger-than-expected U.S. existing home sales data and upbeat Chinese trade figures. Technology shares performed particularly well, with semiconductor and chip component companies posting notable advances.

IEA reportedly weighing record oil reserve release

A major concern in the Iran conflict is the potential disruption of oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz, a strategic maritime route that carries roughly one-fifth of the world’s crude supply.

Fears that Tehran could attempt to block the passage have led to significant volatility in oil markets in recent days. Brent crude, the global benchmark, is currently trading near $90 per barrel after climbing to roughly $120 earlier in the week. Shipping activity through the strait has slowed sharply, as tanker operators worry about crew safety and face difficulties securing insurance coverage.

“The current risk premium in oil prices, driven by threats to the Strait of Hormuz, highlights the severe fragility of global supply chains and the urgent need to develop massive, stable energy reserves,” said Robert Price, CEO of March GL.

According to a Wall Street Journal report, the International Energy Agency is considering releasing strategic oil reserves on an unprecedented scale in an effort to stabilize prices after the surge caused by the Iran conflict.

Officials familiar with the matter told the newspaper that the release could exceed the 182 million barrels made available by IEA member countries following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022. Member nations could decide on the proposal as soon as Wednesday.

Trump warns of stronger action over mining reports

U.S. President Donald Trump has warned that the United States could intensify attacks on Iran after reports suggested Tehran had deployed naval mines in the Strait of Hormuz.

Following a CNN report that Iran had placed mines in the waterway—although not widely yet—Trump said on Tuesday that Iran would be struck “at a level never seen before” if the mines were not removed.

The U.S. military said it had targeted 16 Iranian vessels suspected of laying mines near the strait. Gen. Dan Caine, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, added that storage facilities for naval mines had also been attacked.

However, uncertainty remains over how long the conflict may continue. Trump has said the fighting will end only with Iran’s “unconditional surrender,” although a White House spokesperson indicated that Trump—not Iran’s leadership—would determine when Tehran had surrendered.

On Wednesday, the United States and Israel exchanged strikes with Iranian targets across several locations in the Middle East.

CPI data in focus

Markets will also be closely watching the release of U.S. consumer inflation data for February.

Economists expect the consumer price index to rise 2.5% year-over-year, slightly higher than January’s 2.4% increase. On a monthly basis, prices are projected to climb 0.3%, up from 0.2% previously.

Core CPI, which excludes volatile components such as food and energy, is forecast to reach 2.5% annually and 0.2% month-on-month.

Later this week, the core personal consumption expenditures price index for January will also be published. Analysts expect an annual increase of 3.1% and a monthly rise of 0.4%. This gauge is closely monitored because it is one of the Federal Reserve’s preferred measures of inflation.

Importantly, the upcoming data largely reflects a period before the escalation of U.S. and Israeli military action against Iran. The resulting surge in oil prices has raised concerns that inflationary pressures could intensify globally, potentially prompting central banks to consider tightening monetary policy.

Oracle beats estimates

Oracle (NYSE:ORCL) reported quarterly results that exceeded expectations and issued an optimistic revenue forecast, driven by strong demand for cloud infrastructure used in artificial intelligence data centers.

The company also increased its revenue guidance for fiscal 2027, sending its shares sharply higher in extended trading.

Oracle reported adjusted earnings of $1.79 per share on revenue of $17.19 billion for the third quarter of fiscal 2026. Analysts had forecast earnings of $1.70 per share on revenue of $16.92 billion.

Revenue in the cloud segment surged 44% year-over-year to $8.91 billion.

Commenting on the results, Barclays analyst Raimo Lenschow said the report suggests “a clearer path ahead.”

U.S. stock index futures signaled a weaker open on Tuesday, indicating that markets may pull back after rebounding from an early decline to finish the previous session largely in positive territory.

Ongoing uncertainty surrounding the conflict in the Middle East may continue to weigh on investor sentiment, particularly as crude oil prices recover some of their losses following a sharp overnight drop.

April crude oil futures had plunged nearly 11% to a low of $84.43 per barrel before rebounding to trade back above $90.

The sharp swings in energy markets reflect lingering uncertainty over the U.S. military campaign against Iran following recent remarks from President Donald Trump.

Speaking at a press conference on Monday, Trump said the war with Iran could be resolved “very soon,” although he did not outline specific details about how the conflict might conclude.

In a later message posted on Truth Social, Trump warned that Iran would be struck “twenty times harder” if it takes any action to disrupt oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz.

“We will take out easily destroyable targets that will make it virtually impossible for Iran to ever be built back, as a Nation, again — Death, Fire, and Fury will reign upon them — But I hope, and pray, that it does not happen!” Trump said.

Echoing the president’s message, U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth said at a press briefing Tuesday morning that Iran is “badly losing,” but confirmed that the United States still plans to carry out its “most intense day of strikes” in Iran later today.

U.S. equities had fallen sharply early Monday but later staged a strong recovery. The major indices rebounded from their lows and ended the session higher, led by gains in technology stocks.

In late trading, the rally strengthened, with the Nasdaq climbing 308.27 points, or 1.4%, to 22,695.95. The S&P 500 rose 55.96 points, or 0.8%, to 6,795.99, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 239.25 points, or 0.5%, to 47,740.80.

Earlier in the session, the Dow had dropped as much as 1.9%, while both the Nasdaq and the S&P 500 slid up to 1.5%, marking their lowest intraday levels in more than three months.

The late-session rebound followed reports that Trump told a CBS News reporter the U.S. conflict with Iran could be nearing its conclusion.

CBS News Senior White House Correspondent Weijia Jiang posted on X that Trump told her, “I think the war is very complete, pretty much. They have no navy, no communications, they’ve got no Air Force.”

According to Jiang, Trump also said the United States is “very far” ahead of his original estimate that the conflict might last four to five weeks.

In a separate message, Jiang reported that Trump said he was considering taking control of the Strait of Hormuz, which contributed to a sharp drop in oil prices.

Earlier in the day, the surge in crude oil prices had weighed on stocks. Oil briefly climbed above $100 per barrel for the first time since 2022 and approached $120 at its peak.

The rally had been fueled by reports that major oil producers including Iraq, Kuwait and the United Arab Emirates were reducing output.

With the Strait of Hormuz effectively closed amid Iranian threats against oil tankers, those countries are reportedly facing growing constraints on storage capacity.

Technology shares helped drive the market’s recovery. Semiconductor stocks led the advance, with the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index jumping 3.9% after earlier falling as much as 2% to a two-month intraday low.

Shares of computer hardware, networking and biotechnology companies also rallied during the session, helping push the tech-heavy Nasdaq higher.

Airline stocks also rebounded strongly, lifting the NYSE Arca Airline Index by 1.8%. Earlier in the day, the index had dropped as much as 6.2% to its lowest intraday level in more than three months.

Oil services and healthcare stocks also finished the session higher, although telecom stocks remained among the weaker performers.

U.S. stock futures moved higher on Tuesday while oil prices declined after President Donald Trump suggested that the conflict with Iran, now more than a week old, may conclude “very soon.” His remarks helped ease investor anxiety, although Iran has indicated it is prepared to continue the confrontation and has reportedly warned it could block oil shipments through the strategically vital Strait of Hormuz. Meanwhile, cloud-computing company Oracle (NYSE:ORCL) is scheduled to release its latest quarterly earnings after U.S. markets close.

Futures move higher

Futures tied to major U.S. equity indices climbed as investors reacted to signs that the fighting with Iran could soon wind down.

At 04:11 ET, Dow futures were up 140 points, or 0.3%. S&P 500 futures gained 25 points, or 0.4%, and Nasdaq 100 futures rose 127 points, or 0.5%.

Wall Street’s benchmark indices experienced sharp swings on Monday as markets responded to developments in the joint U.S.–Israeli military campaign against Iran.

Early in the session, stocks dropped, oil prices surged and bond yields jumped after Mojtaba Khamenei was named Iran’s next supreme leader — a choice Trump called unacceptable. Mojtaba Khamenei is the son of former leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, reinforcing expectations that Iran’s leadership will maintain its hardline approach despite pressure from U.S. and Israeli airstrikes.

Fears of a prolonged conflict in the Middle East and potential disruptions to critical oil flows intensified, raising concerns that a spike in global inflation could delay central bank policy easing and weigh on economic growth.

Later in the day, markets stabilized. Stocks rebounded, oil retreated and bond yields gave back some gains after Trump said in an interview that the U.S. campaign against Iran was “very complete, pretty much.” The volatile session ultimately ended with all three major U.S. indices finishing in positive territory.

“[I]nvestors remain more concerned about missing the rally that will likely accompany the first sign of de-escalation from the White House than they are about being caught long in the event of a further deterioration in Middle Eastern conditions,” analysts at Vital Knowledge said in a note to clients.

Trump says Iran conflict over “very soon”

Trump later stated that the war with Iran would end “very soon,” adding during a press conference that “major strides toward completing our military objective” had already been achieved.

He also described the U.S. and Israeli strikes against Iran as a “tremendous success right now.”

Still, the White House messaging included a note of caution. Trump said the United States “could go further, and we’re going to go further.”

He warned that he would target Iran’s supreme leader if Tehran fails to comply with Washington’s demands and threatened to intensify military action if Iran attempts to disrupt oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz — the key maritime route that carries roughly one-fifth of the world’s crude supply.

Iranian officials, meanwhile, have reportedly responded by saying that not “one liter of oil” will be allowed to pass through the strait if the U.S. and Israel continue their attacks.

Oil prices decline

Oil prices fell on Tuesday, extending losses following a volatile session in which Trump also pointed to steps aimed at mitigating supply disruptions.

Crude pared some of its earlier declines as uncertainty remained over when the conflict might end and Tehran’s tough stance on potential de-escalation kept markets cautious.

Trump suggested the possibility of allowing certain waivers for oil exports from sanctioned producers — particularly Russia — to offset supply disruptions in the Middle East. At the same time, reports indicated that the Group of Seven nations are considering releasing emergency oil reserves to help stabilize global markets.

By 04:39 ET, Brent crude futures had dropped 7.3% to $91.77 per barrel, while West Texas Intermediate futures fell 6.1% to $85.93 per barrel.

Oil prices had surged to as high as $120 per barrel on Monday after U.S. and Israeli strikes on several Iranian energy installations marked an escalation in the conflict.

Gold edges higher

Gold prices rose modestly but remained within a narrow trading band as investors awaited further developments in the U.S.–Israel conflict with Iran.

The precious metal gained as overall risk sentiment improved following Trump’s remarks about a potential end to the fighting and measures aimed at limiting the surge in oil prices.

However, gold continued trading within the roughly $5,000 to $5,200 per ounce range seen over the past week, as traders weighed a series of uncertainties facing the global economy.

Demand for gold has been partly restrained by concerns that higher oil prices could fuel inflation, potentially prompting central banks to maintain tighter monetary policy and strengthening the U.S. dollar — factors that typically weigh on gold demand among overseas buyers.

The dollar edged slightly lower on Tuesday, suggesting that some inflation worries may be easing.

Oracle earnings in focus

In corporate news, Oracle will publish its quarterly earnings after the closing bell on Wall Street.

Once considered a smaller player in the cloud industry, Oracle has gained increasing prominence through its partnership with OpenAI, which relies on the company’s infrastructure to power artificial intelligence models.

However, investors have grown increasingly cautious about how Oracle plans to finance the massive investment required to build data centers for OpenAI and other major clients, including Meta Platforms. In December, the company said it expects capital spending to reach $50 billion during the current fiscal year, up from an earlier estimate of $35 billion.

To help manage those costs, Oracle is reportedly considering cutting thousands of jobs, according to Bloomberg News. Bloomberg also reported that Oracle and OpenAI have abandoned plans to expand a large AI data center in Texas after extended negotiations over financing.

Oracle shares, which peaked at around $328 in September, were trading at $151.56 ahead of Monday’s session. The stock has declined by more than 22% so far this year.

“[S]entiment is still very cautious around Oracle,” the Vital Knowledge analysts said.

U.S. stock futures posted modest gains on Friday as investors monitored ongoing fighting in the Middle East that has shown little sign of easing. Oil prices are heading for strong weekly advances as concerns grow over potential supply disruptions through the critical Strait of Hormuz shipping route. Meanwhile, markets are awaiting the release of the February U.S. employment report, while shares of Marvell Technology (NASDAQ:MRVL) surged after the company lifted its annual revenue outlook on strong artificial intelligence-driven demand for data centers.

Futures tick up as Iran tensions persist

U.S. equity futures moved slightly higher, although investor sentiment remained cautious as the conflict involving Iran entered its seventh day.

By 03:06 ET, futures on the Dow Jones Industrial Average were up 50 points, or 0.1%. S&P 500 futures gained 8 points, or 0.1%, while Nasdaq 100 futures rose 65 points, or 0.3%.

Wall Street’s major indices ended the previous session lower, pressured by rising oil prices as markets weighed the risk that supplies could be disrupted in the Strait of Hormuz, a narrow maritime passage south of Iran that serves as a key corridor for global energy shipments.

U.S. crude oil prices have jumped nearly 21% since the United States and Israel launched joint strikes against Iran. Since then, the conflict has expanded across other parts of the Middle East and the Persian Gulf, raising fears that oil flows from one of the world’s most important producing regions could be affected.

The average price of gasoline in the United States has climbed by 27 cents since the attacks began, reaching $3.25 per gallon, according to Reuters citing data from travel organization AAA.

With fuel prices rising, some investors are increasingly concerned that a prolonged conflict could reignite inflationary pressures. That scenario could push back the timeline for potential interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve later this year. U.S. Treasury yields have already moved higher, adding pressure on equity markets.

Beyond the United States, the surge in crude prices has weighed on Asian stocks and currencies. South Korea has been particularly affected because it relies heavily on oil imports that pass through the Strait of Hormuz. The country’s Kospi index finished the session roughly flat but has fallen 10.56% over the past week. Major European equity benchmarks are also on track for their steepest weekly losses since last April.

Oil set for strong weekly gains

Oil markets remain on track for sizeable weekly increases as traders continue to worry that the conflict could disrupt shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, through which around 20% of the world’s oil supply travels.

In an attempt to ease some of those concerns, the United States said it would allow Russian oil to be sold to India for a temporary period of 30 days.

Analysts at ING said in a note: “While this might create some short-term downward pressure on prices, it does not fundamentally change the situation. A sustained decline in oil prices would require the restoration of normal oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz.”

The U.S. Treasury Department is also expected to introduce measures designed to help contain energy prices through financial markets, Reuters reported.

At the same time, there are few signs that the conflict will de-escalate in the near term. Israel carried out strikes on Hezbollah targets in Lebanon and also launched attacks on infrastructure in Tehran. Iran’s Revolutionary Guards responded with drone and missile attacks directed at Tel Aviv, according to media reports.

Iran has also postponed naming a successor to Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who was killed in U.S. and Israeli airstrikes, according to the New York Times. Mojtaba Khamenei, the son of the slain supreme leader, is widely viewed as the leading candidate to succeed him. However, U.S. President Donald Trump has described the possibility of his appointment as “unacceptable.”

Nonfarm payrolls report ahead

Although geopolitical developments have dominated market attention this week, investors will also turn their focus to the state of the U.S. economy on Friday with the release of the February employment report.

Economists expect the U.S. economy to have added approximately 58,000 jobs last month, a slowdown from the 130,000 jobs created in January. The unemployment rate is forecast to remain unchanged at 4.3%.

Federal Reserve policymakers have been closely monitoring the labor market, which has remained relatively resilient despite subdued hiring and layoffs. The central bank has kept interest rates unchanged while awaiting clearer signals about the direction of employment and inflation.

Artificial intelligence developments could also influence how investors interpret the labor market data. Analysts and workers have increasingly warned that the spread of new AI technologies may lead to large-scale job cuts in white-collar sectors, as companies adopt the technology to boost efficiency and reduce costs. Those concerns intensified last week when Jack Dorsey’s payments company Block announced plans to reduce its workforce by about 40%.

Marvell shares jump

Shares of Marvell Technology surged more than 14% in after-hours trading after the semiconductor firm raised its full-year revenue outlook, citing robust demand for data center infrastructure tied to artificial intelligence.

Major technology companies including Amazon and Microsoft are investing heavily in AI development and plan to spend billions expanding the data centers required to power and train AI models.

Companies like Marvell, which develop networking and connectivity technologies that enable large-scale computer systems to move data efficiently, have been major beneficiaries of that spending boom.

Chief Executive Matt Murphy told investors that Marvell now expects fiscal 2027 revenue to increase by more than 30% year over year to nearly $11 billion. Murphy added that the company’s data center business is expected to drive revenue growth in every quarter of fiscal 2027.

Nvidia asks TSMC to halt China chip production — FT

Nvidia (NASDAQ:NVDA) has asked leading contract chipmaker TSMC (NYSE:TSM) to stop producing chips intended for the Chinese market amid ongoing headwinds from U.S. export restrictions, the Financial Times reported on Thursday.

According to the report, Nvidia has shifted manufacturing capacity at TSMC away from its H200 processors and toward its next-generation Vera Rubin hardware.

The move suggests Nvidia no longer expects significant sales of the H200 chip in China, particularly given uncertainty surrounding U.S. export controls and increasing regulatory pressure from Chinese authorities.

President Trump had previously indicated in December that Nvidia would be allowed to sell H200 chips in China. Although the H200 is an older processor, it remains the most advanced artificial intelligence chip Nvidia is currently permitted to export to the country under strict U.S. export regulations.

However, sales in China have reportedly stalled as U.S. lawmakers push for tighter restrictions on the use of these chips. At the same time, Beijing has been encouraging domestic technology development in an effort to achieve full self-reliance in artificial intelligence and semiconductor capabilities.