Category: Market Summary

U.S. stock futures moved higher early Monday as investors prepared for a week packed with developments that could influence global markets. The ongoing conflict involving Iran continues to push oil prices higher and raise concerns about inflation. Meanwhile, a major developer conference hosted by Nvidia (NASDAQ:NVDA) could provide fresh signals about the direction of the artificial intelligence industry, while the Federal Reserve will headline a series of global central bank policy announcements in the days ahead.

Futures edge higher

Futures tied to the main U.S. stock indexes were up in early trading Monday as investors assessed the continued U.S.-Israeli military campaign against Iran, now entering its third week.

At 04:19 ET, Dow futures had risen 141 points, or 0.3%. S&P 500 futures advanced 33 points, or 0.5%, while Nasdaq 100 futures gained 131 points, also around 0.5%.

Wall Street’s main indexes finished last week lower as oil prices surged amid fears of disruptions to global supply. Iran has effectively closed the Strait of Hormuz, a strategic shipping route south of the country through which roughly one-fifth of the world’s oil tanker traffic normally passes. The closure has constrained energy flows and heightened risks to the global economy.

Although the United States has tried to calm supply concerns—including by easing some sanctions on Russian oil—crude prices have continued to climb. Higher oil costs have also pushed gasoline prices higher, an important factor in inflation data and a key issue for U.S. voters ahead of the November 2026 midterm elections.

Analysts at ING noted in a report that U.S. strikes carried out over the weekend on Kharg Island—through which most of Iran’s oil exports move—have heightened concerns about supply risks. However, they said the island’s energy facilities appear to have largely escaped damage.

Trump urges allies to help reopen Strait of Hormuz

U.S. President Donald Trump has meanwhile called on seven countries to work with Washington to secure the Strait of Hormuz, a critical energy corridor responsible for transporting around one-fifth of the world’s oil supply.

Speaking with reporters aboard Air Force One on Sunday, Trump did not indicate whether any of the nations had agreed to assist.

In comments to the Financial Times, Trump also suggested that NATO member states should contribute to reopening the route, warning that “it will be a very bad for the future of NATO” if they fail to respond or decline to support Washington.

Trump also singled out China, saying he could cancel a planned summit with Chinese President Xi Jinping in April if Beijing does not use its influence to help restore shipping through the strait. According to The New York Times, oil tankers heading toward China have been permitted to pass through the waterway, while others have reportedly come under attack.

Oil prices rise amid supply concerns

Oil prices advanced Monday in volatile trading as investors remained alert to potential disruptions to Middle East supply. Prices had briefly dipped after Trump urged several countries—including China—to help reopen the Strait of Hormuz.

U.S. officials continued to express confidence that the conflict with Iran would end quickly, while Tehran maintained that it remains capable of defending itself.

Separately, the International Energy Agency said over the weekend it plans to release 411.9 million barrels of crude from emergency reserves in an effort to offset possible supply shortages.

Brent crude futures, the global benchmark, climbed 2.7% to $105.90 per barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate futures gained 2.0% to $98.75 per barrel at 04:06 ET. Earlier in the session, oil had risen as much as 3% before trimming gains and briefly trading flat.

Nvidia developer conference draws investor attention

Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang will take center stage at the company’s annual developer conference beginning Monday, as investors look for updates on how the chipmaker plans to maintain its leadership in the rapidly expanding artificial intelligence sector.

Huang’s presentation comes as Nvidia faces growing competition in the market for AI-focused semiconductors. Rivals such as Advanced Micro Devices and Intel are increasing their presence, while major technology firms—including Alphabet’s Google—are developing their own processors tailored to artificial intelligence applications.

The increasing importance of “inference” in AI—where systems perform tasks on behalf of users—also presents a challenge for Nvidia. These workloads often rely on different types of chips than those Nvidia has traditionally produced. Some of Nvidia’s largest customers, including OpenAI and Meta Platforms, have also indicated plans to design their own AI processors.

In December, Nvidia spent $17 billion to acquire Groq, a startup specializing in fast and cost-efficient inference computing. Last month, Huang said he would show how Groq’s technology could be integrated into Nvidia’s CUDA platform.

“[T]he big deliverable expected at this event is the unveiling by Nvidia of a new inference-focused chip that will contain IP obtained in the recent Groq acquihire deal,” analysts at Vital Knowledge said in a research note.

Fed policy decision in focus

Beyond developments in the technology sector, investors are also preparing for several central bank policy decisions this week.

The Federal Reserve will be the main highlight, with policymakers widely expected to leave interest rates unchanged when their two-day meeting concludes on Wednesday.

Fed Chair Jerome Powell—who is scheduled to step down in May—is also expected to use one of his final press conferences following a policy announcement to comment on the condition of the U.S. labor market and the outlook for inflation.

Recent employment data came in significantly weaker than expected, underscoring potential fragility in the job market. At the same time, inflation pressures could intensify due to rising energy prices linked to the conflict involving Iran.

These developments leave the Fed facing a difficult policy balancing act: lowering interest rates could help support hiring but risk fueling inflation, while raising rates could restrain price growth but potentially weaken the labor market.

Investors will be watching closely for signals about how the central bank intends to manage these competing risks in the months ahead.

U.S. equity futures moved modestly lower early Friday as energy prices remained elevated amid the continuing conflict in the Middle East. Brent crude stayed above the $100-per-barrel threshold, with little indication that the joint U.S.-Israeli campaign against Iran — now stretching beyond a week — will ease soon. The jump in energy costs has also raised fresh inflation concerns, putting gold on track for a weekly decline, while investors await another key U.S. inflation reading. In corporate news, Adobe (NASDAQ:ADBE) shares slipped after the company announced that its long-serving chief executive will step down.

Futures drift lower

Contracts tied to the major U.S. stock indices pointed to a softer start for Wall Street on Friday, suggesting markets may finish the week under pressure following several sessions of volatility linked to the Iran war and tightening oil supplies.

At 04:10 ET, Dow futures were down 241 points, or 0.5%. S&P 500 futures had fallen 35 points, also about 0.5%, while Nasdaq 100 futures were lower by 157 points, or 0.6%.

The main U.S. benchmarks had already ended the previous session lower as investors saw little evidence that tensions in the Middle East were about to subside. A statement from Iran’s new Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei indicating that the crucial Strait of Hormuz will remain closed helped keep oil prices elevated and weighed on investor sentiment.

Although the U.S. and Israel appear to have gained the upper hand militarily, some analysts believe Iran may be trying to counter the pressure by restricting maritime traffic through the strait, which carries roughly one-fifth of global oil shipments.

To offset Iran’s control over the key passage, the U.S. Treasury has said countries will be allowed to buy certain sanctioned Russian crude until April 11. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent also said the U.S. Navy may escort commercial ships traveling through the strait.

Brent remains elevated

Fears that the conflict could spread across one of the world’s most important oil-producing regions have helped keep Brent crude above $100 per barrel.

The benchmark has experienced sharp swings throughout the week. At one stage, Brent surged close to $120 a barrel before briefly falling below $90.

While the volatility has captured headlines, the bigger question for investors is whether the surge in oil prices will prove lasting, analysts at Capital Economics noted.

“As it stands, investors in the options market put a one-in-five chance of Brent crude prices being $100 per barrel or higher in three months’ time,” said Kieran Tompkins, Senior Climate and Commodities Economist at Capital Economics, in a note.

At 04:33 ET on Friday, Brent futures had gained 0.6% to $101.04 a barrel, putting the benchmark up more than 9% over the past week. Before the conflict with Iran erupted, Brent had been trading near $70 a barrel.

Gold heads for weekly loss

Spot gold was meanwhile poised for a second consecutive weekly decline, highlighting concerns that the Iran conflict could trigger a fresh wave of inflation through higher energy costs.

Much of the oil and gas transported through the Strait of Hormuz is used in manufacturing products such as fertilizers and plastics. A sustained rise in energy prices could therefore ripple through supply chains and increase inflationary pressures across global economies.

Such concerns could also prompt central banks — including the Federal Reserve — to reconsider plans for near-term interest rate cuts. Higher borrowing costs tend to attract foreign capital and support the U.S. dollar. The dollar index, which tracks the currency against a basket of major peers, has strengthened as the conflict has intensified.

Although gold is typically viewed as a safe-haven asset during geopolitical crises, a stronger dollar can reduce its appeal by making bullion more expensive for buyers outside the United States.

U.S. inflation data ahead

Markets will also be watching closely for the release of the U.S. personal consumption expenditures price index for January later on Friday.

Excluding volatile categories such as food and energy, the so-called “core” PCE index is expected to rise 3.1% year-on-year, slightly higher than the 3.0% recorded in December. The gauge is closely followed by financial markets because it is one of the Federal Reserve’s preferred indicators when shaping monetary policy.

Interestingly, the Commerce Department’s PCE figures have recently come in hotter than the Labor Department’s consumer price index readings. The difference largely reflects variations in weighting — particularly for housing and healthcare — as well as differences in scope and consumer substitution patterns. Specifically, the lower weighting of cooling housing costs in the PCE and its higher exposure to rising healthcare expenses have kept the PCE above CPI.

On Wednesday, February’s CPI data showed relatively moderate inflation of 2.4% year-on-year.

However, the data largely reflect a period before the outbreak of the Iran conflict, which began with U.S. and Israeli air strikes in late February. Since then, the inflation outlook has become more uncertain.

Adobe CEO to step down

Adobe shares declined in after-hours trading after the company revealed that Shantanu Narayen — who has served as chief executive for eighteen years — will step down as the board begins the process of identifying a successor.

Narayen joined Adobe in 1998 and rose through the company before becoming CEO in December 2007. One of his most notable strategic decisions was transitioning Adobe’s software portfolio to a cloud-based subscription model.

During his leadership, Adobe’s annual revenue expanded sharply, rising from $3.58 billion to $23.77 billion.

The San Jose, California-based firm — known for products such as image editor Photoshop and video editing software Premiere Pro — also reported quarterly results that exceeded expectations on both revenue and earnings and issued guidance for the current quarter that was largely above market forecasts.

U.S. equity futures moved lower early Thursday as investors monitored escalating conflict in the Middle East. Oil prices once again moved above the $100-per-barrel level following attacks on vessels near a key shipping route south of Iran, heightening concerns about potential disruptions to global supply. Gold prices steadied but remained pressured amid fears that the oil surge could fuel inflation. Meanwhile, Adobe (NASDAQ:ADBE) is set to report earnings later in the day, while energy major Shell has already released its latest results.

Futures drift lower

U.S. stock futures indicated a weaker start to Thursday’s session as crude prices surged again, even as authorities attempted to offset the impact of the conflict involving Iran by releasing significant volumes of strategic reserves.

As of 04:10 ET, Dow Jones Industrial Average futures were down 218 points, or 0.5%. Futures linked to the S&P 500 declined by 25 points, or 0.4%, while Nasdaq 100 futures dropped 93 points, also down 0.4%.

In Wednesday’s session, the Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at its lowest level of the year so far, reflecting investor concerns that higher oil prices could weigh on both businesses and consumers in the United States.

The S&P 500 ended the day only slightly lower, while the technology-heavy Nasdaq Composite managed to record a modest gain. Market sentiment received some support from better-than-expected earnings from cloud computing company Oracle, which offered an upbeat outlook for demand related to artificial intelligence data centers. February consumer inflation figures in the U.S. also matched expectations, although the jump in oil prices has clouded the future inflation outlook.

While the conflict involving the U.S., Israel and Iran remains the central focus for markets, other themes continue to influence investor sentiment. These include stress within the private credit market, ongoing uncertainty surrounding U.S. tariff policies, and questions about the returns on massive investments in artificial intelligence.

Oil climbs above $100

Crude oil prices briefly surpassed the $100-per-barrel mark again as concerns about supply disruptions persisted while the conflict involving Iran continued to escalate across the Middle East.

At 04:05 ET, Brent crude futures, the global benchmark, rose 4.3% to $95.92 per barrel. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude increased 3.8% to $90.54 per barrel.

Energy markets have experienced sharp volatility in recent days, highlighting how closely traders are watching developments related to the conflict. Earlier this week, Brent prices surged to nearly $120 per barrel, the highest level seen since 2022.

The primary concern for oil markets centers on the possibility of disrupted shipments through the Strait of Hormuz, a narrow maritime corridor south of Iran through which roughly one-fifth of global oil and gas supply passes, much of it bound for Asia and Europe.

Tanker traffic through the strait has slowed dramatically as threats of Iranian attacks have raised serious safety concerns for shipping crews. Shipping companies have also struggled to obtain insurance coverage for voyages through the region, further limiting activity.

Iran has intensified attacks in the area, while the U.S. Navy has declined to provide escorts for commercial vessels passing through the strait. At least six ships were reportedly struck in the past day, and Bahrain said its oil infrastructure had also been targeted.

These developments come despite efforts by the International Energy Agency to calm markets through the largest emergency oil reserve release in its history. The U.S. Department of Energy also said it would release 172 million barrels from the country’s strategic petroleum reserves.

Gold steadies

Gold prices stabilized after declines during Asian trading hours as continued tensions in the conflict involving the U.S., Israel and Iran pushed energy prices higher and increased concerns about inflation.

Spot gold rose 0.1% to $5,178.65 per ounce by 04:54 ET, while gold futures also gained 0.1% to $5,184.75 per ounce.

Bullion has been trading within a range of roughly $5,000 to $5,200 per ounce. Some analysts warn that the spike in oil prices could reignite inflation, potentially forcing central banks such as the Federal Reserve to reconsider expectations for interest rate cuts in the near term.

Such a shift could strengthen the U.S. dollar, which typically weighs on gold because it makes the metal more expensive for buyers using other currencies. The dollar index was last up about 0.2%, near a two-month high.

Adobe earnings in focus

Adobe (NASDAQ:ADBE) is scheduled to release its quarterly results after markets close on Thursday, with investors keen to see how the company is navigating growing concerns about the role of artificial intelligence in the software industry.

Although AI was initially viewed as a major growth opportunity for software firms, the rapid emergence of new tools has sparked fears of disruption across the software-as-a-service sector. Investors are particularly concerned that advanced AI agents could reduce demand for services ranging from marketing tools to data analytics platforms.

The S&P 500 Information Technology sector, which includes Adobe, has fallen by more than 3% since the start of the year. This represents a notable reversal from 2025, when the index generated a total return of 24%.

Adobe’s share price has mirrored this trend, declining more than 18% year-to-date.

Even before the latest concerns emerged, Adobe had already been pursuing its own artificial intelligence strategy by integrating AI features into products such as Firefly and Adobe Express. These tools allow users to quickly generate images and videos directly within the company’s Creative Cloud ecosystem.

The company’s efforts to monetize AI capabilities appear to be supporting its outlook. Executives forecast fiscal 2026 revenue and profit above Wall Street expectations, projecting annual revenue between $25.90 billion and $26.10 billion and earnings per share between $23.30 and $23.50.

Shell results

Energy company Shell (LSE:SHEL) reported adjusted earnings of $18.5 billion for 2025, compared with $23.7 billion recorded in 2024.

Cash flow from operating activities totaled $42.9 billion, down from $54.7 billion the previous year. Free cash flow came in at $26.1 billion, compared with $39.5 billion in 2024.

The company continued to deliver significant returns to shareholders. Total distributions reached approximately $22.4 billion, including $8.5 billion in dividends and $13.9 billion in share buybacks. These payouts accounted for around 52% of operating cash flow, placing them at the upper end of the company’s target distribution range of 40% to 50%.

The results were released one day after Reuters reported that Shell, the world’s largest trader of liquefied natural gas, declared force majeure on LNG cargoes purchased from QatarEnergy and supplied to customers worldwide. The development followed Qatar’s decision to halt production at its 77-million-tonne-per-year LNG facility and declare force majeure on shipments.

Analysts estimate that Shell receives roughly 6.8 million tonnes per year of LNG from Qatar under supply agreements, while TotalEnergies is estimated to receive about 5.2 million tonnes annually, according to the report.