Category: Market Summary

U.S. equity futures moved lower early Thursday as investors monitored escalating conflict in the Middle East. Oil prices once again moved above the $100-per-barrel level following attacks on vessels near a key shipping route south of Iran, heightening concerns about potential disruptions to global supply. Gold prices steadied but remained pressured amid fears that the oil surge could fuel inflation. Meanwhile, Adobe (NASDAQ:ADBE) is set to report earnings later in the day, while energy major Shell has already released its latest results.

Futures drift lower

U.S. stock futures indicated a weaker start to Thursday’s session as crude prices surged again, even as authorities attempted to offset the impact of the conflict involving Iran by releasing significant volumes of strategic reserves.

As of 04:10 ET, Dow Jones Industrial Average futures were down 218 points, or 0.5%. Futures linked to the S&P 500 declined by 25 points, or 0.4%, while Nasdaq 100 futures dropped 93 points, also down 0.4%.

In Wednesday’s session, the Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at its lowest level of the year so far, reflecting investor concerns that higher oil prices could weigh on both businesses and consumers in the United States.

The S&P 500 ended the day only slightly lower, while the technology-heavy Nasdaq Composite managed to record a modest gain. Market sentiment received some support from better-than-expected earnings from cloud computing company Oracle, which offered an upbeat outlook for demand related to artificial intelligence data centers. February consumer inflation figures in the U.S. also matched expectations, although the jump in oil prices has clouded the future inflation outlook.

While the conflict involving the U.S., Israel and Iran remains the central focus for markets, other themes continue to influence investor sentiment. These include stress within the private credit market, ongoing uncertainty surrounding U.S. tariff policies, and questions about the returns on massive investments in artificial intelligence.

Oil climbs above $100

Crude oil prices briefly surpassed the $100-per-barrel mark again as concerns about supply disruptions persisted while the conflict involving Iran continued to escalate across the Middle East.

At 04:05 ET, Brent crude futures, the global benchmark, rose 4.3% to $95.92 per barrel. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude increased 3.8% to $90.54 per barrel.

Energy markets have experienced sharp volatility in recent days, highlighting how closely traders are watching developments related to the conflict. Earlier this week, Brent prices surged to nearly $120 per barrel, the highest level seen since 2022.

The primary concern for oil markets centers on the possibility of disrupted shipments through the Strait of Hormuz, a narrow maritime corridor south of Iran through which roughly one-fifth of global oil and gas supply passes, much of it bound for Asia and Europe.

Tanker traffic through the strait has slowed dramatically as threats of Iranian attacks have raised serious safety concerns for shipping crews. Shipping companies have also struggled to obtain insurance coverage for voyages through the region, further limiting activity.

Iran has intensified attacks in the area, while the U.S. Navy has declined to provide escorts for commercial vessels passing through the strait. At least six ships were reportedly struck in the past day, and Bahrain said its oil infrastructure had also been targeted.

These developments come despite efforts by the International Energy Agency to calm markets through the largest emergency oil reserve release in its history. The U.S. Department of Energy also said it would release 172 million barrels from the country’s strategic petroleum reserves.

Gold steadies

Gold prices stabilized after declines during Asian trading hours as continued tensions in the conflict involving the U.S., Israel and Iran pushed energy prices higher and increased concerns about inflation.

Spot gold rose 0.1% to $5,178.65 per ounce by 04:54 ET, while gold futures also gained 0.1% to $5,184.75 per ounce.

Bullion has been trading within a range of roughly $5,000 to $5,200 per ounce. Some analysts warn that the spike in oil prices could reignite inflation, potentially forcing central banks such as the Federal Reserve to reconsider expectations for interest rate cuts in the near term.

Such a shift could strengthen the U.S. dollar, which typically weighs on gold because it makes the metal more expensive for buyers using other currencies. The dollar index was last up about 0.2%, near a two-month high.

Adobe earnings in focus

Adobe (NASDAQ:ADBE) is scheduled to release its quarterly results after markets close on Thursday, with investors keen to see how the company is navigating growing concerns about the role of artificial intelligence in the software industry.

Although AI was initially viewed as a major growth opportunity for software firms, the rapid emergence of new tools has sparked fears of disruption across the software-as-a-service sector. Investors are particularly concerned that advanced AI agents could reduce demand for services ranging from marketing tools to data analytics platforms.

The S&P 500 Information Technology sector, which includes Adobe, has fallen by more than 3% since the start of the year. This represents a notable reversal from 2025, when the index generated a total return of 24%.

Adobe’s share price has mirrored this trend, declining more than 18% year-to-date.

Even before the latest concerns emerged, Adobe had already been pursuing its own artificial intelligence strategy by integrating AI features into products such as Firefly and Adobe Express. These tools allow users to quickly generate images and videos directly within the company’s Creative Cloud ecosystem.

The company’s efforts to monetize AI capabilities appear to be supporting its outlook. Executives forecast fiscal 2026 revenue and profit above Wall Street expectations, projecting annual revenue between $25.90 billion and $26.10 billion and earnings per share between $23.30 and $23.50.

Shell results

Energy company Shell (LSE:SHEL) reported adjusted earnings of $18.5 billion for 2025, compared with $23.7 billion recorded in 2024.

Cash flow from operating activities totaled $42.9 billion, down from $54.7 billion the previous year. Free cash flow came in at $26.1 billion, compared with $39.5 billion in 2024.

The company continued to deliver significant returns to shareholders. Total distributions reached approximately $22.4 billion, including $8.5 billion in dividends and $13.9 billion in share buybacks. These payouts accounted for around 52% of operating cash flow, placing them at the upper end of the company’s target distribution range of 40% to 50%.

The results were released one day after Reuters reported that Shell, the world’s largest trader of liquefied natural gas, declared force majeure on LNG cargoes purchased from QatarEnergy and supplied to customers worldwide. The development followed Qatar’s decision to halt production at its 77-million-tonne-per-year LNG facility and declare force majeure on shipments.

Analysts estimate that Shell receives roughly 6.8 million tonnes per year of LNG from Qatar under supply agreements, while TotalEnergies is estimated to receive about 5.2 million tonnes annually, according to the report.

U.S. equity futures traded slightly in negative territory on Wednesday as investors continued to track the uncertain course of the conflict in the Middle East. Oil prices fluctuated following reports that the International Energy Agency may consider a record release of emergency reserves. Markets are also awaiting key U.S. inflation figures later in the session, while Oracle issued a stronger revenue outlook supported by robust demand for artificial intelligence data centers.

U.S. futures edge lower

As of 04:51 ET, futures tied to major U.S. stock indexes were modestly down. Dow futures declined by 98 points, or 0.2%, S&P 500 futures slipped by 5 points, or 0.1%, and Nasdaq 100 futures fell by 20 points, or 0.1%.

The previous session on Wall Street ended with mixed results. The Dow Jones Industrial Average and the S&P 500 both closed slightly lower, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite managed a small gain.

Investors spent much of the session focused on developments in the Middle East, where the United States warned it could launch its most intense wave of strikes against Iran since the start of its joint military campaign with Israel late last month.

Despite the escalating rhetoric, equity markets remained relatively steady. Analysts at Vital Knowledge noted that investors appeared to look beyond the comments, while sentiment also received support from stronger-than-expected U.S. existing home sales data and upbeat Chinese trade figures. Technology shares performed particularly well, with semiconductor and chip component companies posting notable advances.

IEA reportedly weighing record oil reserve release

A major concern in the Iran conflict is the potential disruption of oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz, a strategic maritime route that carries roughly one-fifth of the world’s crude supply.

Fears that Tehran could attempt to block the passage have led to significant volatility in oil markets in recent days. Brent crude, the global benchmark, is currently trading near $90 per barrel after climbing to roughly $120 earlier in the week. Shipping activity through the strait has slowed sharply, as tanker operators worry about crew safety and face difficulties securing insurance coverage.

“The current risk premium in oil prices, driven by threats to the Strait of Hormuz, highlights the severe fragility of global supply chains and the urgent need to develop massive, stable energy reserves,” said Robert Price, CEO of March GL.

According to a Wall Street Journal report, the International Energy Agency is considering releasing strategic oil reserves on an unprecedented scale in an effort to stabilize prices after the surge caused by the Iran conflict.

Officials familiar with the matter told the newspaper that the release could exceed the 182 million barrels made available by IEA member countries following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022. Member nations could decide on the proposal as soon as Wednesday.

Trump warns of stronger action over mining reports

U.S. President Donald Trump has warned that the United States could intensify attacks on Iran after reports suggested Tehran had deployed naval mines in the Strait of Hormuz.

Following a CNN report that Iran had placed mines in the waterway—although not widely yet—Trump said on Tuesday that Iran would be struck “at a level never seen before” if the mines were not removed.

The U.S. military said it had targeted 16 Iranian vessels suspected of laying mines near the strait. Gen. Dan Caine, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, added that storage facilities for naval mines had also been attacked.

However, uncertainty remains over how long the conflict may continue. Trump has said the fighting will end only with Iran’s “unconditional surrender,” although a White House spokesperson indicated that Trump—not Iran’s leadership—would determine when Tehran had surrendered.

On Wednesday, the United States and Israel exchanged strikes with Iranian targets across several locations in the Middle East.

CPI data in focus

Markets will also be closely watching the release of U.S. consumer inflation data for February.

Economists expect the consumer price index to rise 2.5% year-over-year, slightly higher than January’s 2.4% increase. On a monthly basis, prices are projected to climb 0.3%, up from 0.2% previously.

Core CPI, which excludes volatile components such as food and energy, is forecast to reach 2.5% annually and 0.2% month-on-month.

Later this week, the core personal consumption expenditures price index for January will also be published. Analysts expect an annual increase of 3.1% and a monthly rise of 0.4%. This gauge is closely monitored because it is one of the Federal Reserve’s preferred measures of inflation.

Importantly, the upcoming data largely reflects a period before the escalation of U.S. and Israeli military action against Iran. The resulting surge in oil prices has raised concerns that inflationary pressures could intensify globally, potentially prompting central banks to consider tightening monetary policy.

Oracle beats estimates

Oracle (NYSE:ORCL) reported quarterly results that exceeded expectations and issued an optimistic revenue forecast, driven by strong demand for cloud infrastructure used in artificial intelligence data centers.

The company also increased its revenue guidance for fiscal 2027, sending its shares sharply higher in extended trading.

Oracle reported adjusted earnings of $1.79 per share on revenue of $17.19 billion for the third quarter of fiscal 2026. Analysts had forecast earnings of $1.70 per share on revenue of $16.92 billion.

Revenue in the cloud segment surged 44% year-over-year to $8.91 billion.

Commenting on the results, Barclays analyst Raimo Lenschow said the report suggests “a clearer path ahead.”

U.S. stock index futures signaled a weaker open on Tuesday, indicating that markets may pull back after rebounding from an early decline to finish the previous session largely in positive territory.

Ongoing uncertainty surrounding the conflict in the Middle East may continue to weigh on investor sentiment, particularly as crude oil prices recover some of their losses following a sharp overnight drop.

April crude oil futures had plunged nearly 11% to a low of $84.43 per barrel before rebounding to trade back above $90.

The sharp swings in energy markets reflect lingering uncertainty over the U.S. military campaign against Iran following recent remarks from President Donald Trump.

Speaking at a press conference on Monday, Trump said the war with Iran could be resolved “very soon,” although he did not outline specific details about how the conflict might conclude.

In a later message posted on Truth Social, Trump warned that Iran would be struck “twenty times harder” if it takes any action to disrupt oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz.

“We will take out easily destroyable targets that will make it virtually impossible for Iran to ever be built back, as a Nation, again — Death, Fire, and Fury will reign upon them — But I hope, and pray, that it does not happen!” Trump said.

Echoing the president’s message, U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth said at a press briefing Tuesday morning that Iran is “badly losing,” but confirmed that the United States still plans to carry out its “most intense day of strikes” in Iran later today.

U.S. equities had fallen sharply early Monday but later staged a strong recovery. The major indices rebounded from their lows and ended the session higher, led by gains in technology stocks.

In late trading, the rally strengthened, with the Nasdaq climbing 308.27 points, or 1.4%, to 22,695.95. The S&P 500 rose 55.96 points, or 0.8%, to 6,795.99, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 239.25 points, or 0.5%, to 47,740.80.

Earlier in the session, the Dow had dropped as much as 1.9%, while both the Nasdaq and the S&P 500 slid up to 1.5%, marking their lowest intraday levels in more than three months.

The late-session rebound followed reports that Trump told a CBS News reporter the U.S. conflict with Iran could be nearing its conclusion.

CBS News Senior White House Correspondent Weijia Jiang posted on X that Trump told her, “I think the war is very complete, pretty much. They have no navy, no communications, they’ve got no Air Force.”

According to Jiang, Trump also said the United States is “very far” ahead of his original estimate that the conflict might last four to five weeks.

In a separate message, Jiang reported that Trump said he was considering taking control of the Strait of Hormuz, which contributed to a sharp drop in oil prices.

Earlier in the day, the surge in crude oil prices had weighed on stocks. Oil briefly climbed above $100 per barrel for the first time since 2022 and approached $120 at its peak.

The rally had been fueled by reports that major oil producers including Iraq, Kuwait and the United Arab Emirates were reducing output.

With the Strait of Hormuz effectively closed amid Iranian threats against oil tankers, those countries are reportedly facing growing constraints on storage capacity.

Technology shares helped drive the market’s recovery. Semiconductor stocks led the advance, with the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index jumping 3.9% after earlier falling as much as 2% to a two-month intraday low.

Shares of computer hardware, networking and biotechnology companies also rallied during the session, helping push the tech-heavy Nasdaq higher.

Airline stocks also rebounded strongly, lifting the NYSE Arca Airline Index by 1.8%. Earlier in the day, the index had dropped as much as 6.2% to its lowest intraday level in more than three months.

Oil services and healthcare stocks also finished the session higher, although telecom stocks remained among the weaker performers.

U.S. stock futures moved higher on Tuesday while oil prices declined after President Donald Trump suggested that the conflict with Iran, now more than a week old, may conclude “very soon.” His remarks helped ease investor anxiety, although Iran has indicated it is prepared to continue the confrontation and has reportedly warned it could block oil shipments through the strategically vital Strait of Hormuz. Meanwhile, cloud-computing company Oracle (NYSE:ORCL) is scheduled to release its latest quarterly earnings after U.S. markets close.

Futures move higher

Futures tied to major U.S. equity indices climbed as investors reacted to signs that the fighting with Iran could soon wind down.

At 04:11 ET, Dow futures were up 140 points, or 0.3%. S&P 500 futures gained 25 points, or 0.4%, and Nasdaq 100 futures rose 127 points, or 0.5%.

Wall Street’s benchmark indices experienced sharp swings on Monday as markets responded to developments in the joint U.S.–Israeli military campaign against Iran.

Early in the session, stocks dropped, oil prices surged and bond yields jumped after Mojtaba Khamenei was named Iran’s next supreme leader — a choice Trump called unacceptable. Mojtaba Khamenei is the son of former leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, reinforcing expectations that Iran’s leadership will maintain its hardline approach despite pressure from U.S. and Israeli airstrikes.

Fears of a prolonged conflict in the Middle East and potential disruptions to critical oil flows intensified, raising concerns that a spike in global inflation could delay central bank policy easing and weigh on economic growth.

Later in the day, markets stabilized. Stocks rebounded, oil retreated and bond yields gave back some gains after Trump said in an interview that the U.S. campaign against Iran was “very complete, pretty much.” The volatile session ultimately ended with all three major U.S. indices finishing in positive territory.

“[I]nvestors remain more concerned about missing the rally that will likely accompany the first sign of de-escalation from the White House than they are about being caught long in the event of a further deterioration in Middle Eastern conditions,” analysts at Vital Knowledge said in a note to clients.

Trump says Iran conflict over “very soon”

Trump later stated that the war with Iran would end “very soon,” adding during a press conference that “major strides toward completing our military objective” had already been achieved.

He also described the U.S. and Israeli strikes against Iran as a “tremendous success right now.”

Still, the White House messaging included a note of caution. Trump said the United States “could go further, and we’re going to go further.”

He warned that he would target Iran’s supreme leader if Tehran fails to comply with Washington’s demands and threatened to intensify military action if Iran attempts to disrupt oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz — the key maritime route that carries roughly one-fifth of the world’s crude supply.

Iranian officials, meanwhile, have reportedly responded by saying that not “one liter of oil” will be allowed to pass through the strait if the U.S. and Israel continue their attacks.

Oil prices decline

Oil prices fell on Tuesday, extending losses following a volatile session in which Trump also pointed to steps aimed at mitigating supply disruptions.

Crude pared some of its earlier declines as uncertainty remained over when the conflict might end and Tehran’s tough stance on potential de-escalation kept markets cautious.

Trump suggested the possibility of allowing certain waivers for oil exports from sanctioned producers — particularly Russia — to offset supply disruptions in the Middle East. At the same time, reports indicated that the Group of Seven nations are considering releasing emergency oil reserves to help stabilize global markets.

By 04:39 ET, Brent crude futures had dropped 7.3% to $91.77 per barrel, while West Texas Intermediate futures fell 6.1% to $85.93 per barrel.

Oil prices had surged to as high as $120 per barrel on Monday after U.S. and Israeli strikes on several Iranian energy installations marked an escalation in the conflict.

Gold edges higher

Gold prices rose modestly but remained within a narrow trading band as investors awaited further developments in the U.S.–Israel conflict with Iran.

The precious metal gained as overall risk sentiment improved following Trump’s remarks about a potential end to the fighting and measures aimed at limiting the surge in oil prices.

However, gold continued trading within the roughly $5,000 to $5,200 per ounce range seen over the past week, as traders weighed a series of uncertainties facing the global economy.

Demand for gold has been partly restrained by concerns that higher oil prices could fuel inflation, potentially prompting central banks to maintain tighter monetary policy and strengthening the U.S. dollar — factors that typically weigh on gold demand among overseas buyers.

The dollar edged slightly lower on Tuesday, suggesting that some inflation worries may be easing.

Oracle earnings in focus

In corporate news, Oracle will publish its quarterly earnings after the closing bell on Wall Street.

Once considered a smaller player in the cloud industry, Oracle has gained increasing prominence through its partnership with OpenAI, which relies on the company’s infrastructure to power artificial intelligence models.

However, investors have grown increasingly cautious about how Oracle plans to finance the massive investment required to build data centers for OpenAI and other major clients, including Meta Platforms. In December, the company said it expects capital spending to reach $50 billion during the current fiscal year, up from an earlier estimate of $35 billion.

To help manage those costs, Oracle is reportedly considering cutting thousands of jobs, according to Bloomberg News. Bloomberg also reported that Oracle and OpenAI have abandoned plans to expand a large AI data center in Texas after extended negotiations over financing.

Oracle shares, which peaked at around $328 in September, were trading at $151.56 ahead of Monday’s session. The stock has declined by more than 22% so far this year.

“[S]entiment is still very cautious around Oracle,” the Vital Knowledge analysts said.