Category: Market Summary

European equities moved mostly higher on Friday as oil prices declined from recent levels and data showed the UK economy expanded in July.

Brent crude futures fell more than 3% to below $104 a barrel after the Financial Times reported that Iran and Oman were holding discussions with Gulf states regarding the reopening of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.

According to the report cited in the source, Gulf foreign ministers plan to meet their Iranian counterpart in Salalah, Oman, on Monday to discuss an arrangement for managing commercial shipping through the strait.

UK Economy Expands in July

UK gross domestic product increased 0.4% month on month in July, according to the Office for National Statistics, following growth of 0.3% in June and no growth in May.

On an annual basis, GDP increased 1.6% in July, compared with forecasts of 1.2%.

Germany’s DAX gained 0.5%, while France’s CAC 40 and the UK’s FTSE 100 both rose 0.6%.

Alstom, Fraport and Trainline Rise

Alstom (EU:ALO) shares advanced after the French train manufacturer signed contracts worth €1.2 billion with TransPennine Express.

Fraport (TG:FRA) also moved higher. The transport company said approximately 6.3 million passengers travelled through Frankfurt Airport in August, representing a 0.3% decline from the corresponding month a year earlier.

Trainline (LSE:TRN) shares also gained after the British rail ticketing platform announced a £100 million share repurchase programme to be conducted over 12 months.

United Internet (TG:UTDI), meanwhile, declined after the German internet services company launched cost-saving programmes at subsidiaries 1&1 and Ionos that include job reductions.

UK markets open flat as Trainline unveils a £100m buyback and Berkeley holds its £1.4bn profit target. Brent crude eases, sterling firms.

Market Overview

UK and European markets opened broadly steady on Friday, with the FTSE 100 little changed at 10,608.95, having closed the previous session at 10,608.92. The Euronext 100 opened firmer at 1,888.44, up around 0.09 per cent, while Germany’s DAX advanced to 25,478.84, a rise of roughly 0.46 per cent, as stronger-than-expected UK GDP data helped offset lingering concerns over tensions in the Strait of Hormuz. Wall Street had closed lower overnight, with the Nasdaq Composite down 0.65 per cent at 26,081.73 and the S&P 500 off 0.58 per cent at 7,591.70, as investors weighed the European Central Bank’s recent hawkish rate rise and awaited further signals on the path for US monetary policy.

Elsewhere, commodity markets were mixed, with copper and gold firmer while Brent crude and natural gas eased back after a volatile run driven by Middle East supply concerns. Bitcoin slipped against sterling, reflecting a more cautious tone across risk assets. Sterling was broadly stable overnight, edging higher against the US dollar and the euro but softer against the Swiss franc, as traders continued to digest this week’s European Central Bank rate rise alongside signs of resilience in the UK economy. Overall sentiment remained cautious, with energy market volatility and central bank policy the dominant macro themes heading into the session.

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Market Numbers

FTSE 100: Up (+0.00%), 10,608.95
Euronext 100: Up (+0.09%), 1,888.44
DAX: Up (+0.46%), 25,478.84
NASDAQ: Down, 26,081.73
S&P 500: Down, 7,591.70

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In the Headlines

Buyback boost – Trainline plc (LSE:TRN)
Trainline reported net ticket sales of £3.3 billion for the first half, broadly flat year-on-year, and announced a new £100 million share buyback alongside reaffirmed full-year guidance. The move underlines management confidence despite a modest decline in international ticket sales.

Profit target held – Berkeley Group Holdings (LSE:BKG)
Berkeley reaffirmed its target to deliver £1.4 billion of pre-tax profit over four years, though it said trading since May has been affected by the prolonged Middle East conflict and UK political uncertainty. The housebuilder is scaling back production by around a quarter over the period as buyer caution persists.

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Currencies (vs GBP)

USD: Up (+0.01%), $1.351
CHF: Down (-0.01%), Fr.1.0985
EUR: Up (+0.00%), €1.1636
JPY: Down (-0.00%), ¥208.6855
AUD: Up (+0.00%), $1.8878
Bitcoin (BTC/GBP): Down, £57,202.93

Commodities

Copper: Up
Gold: Up
Brent Crude: Down
Natural Gas: Down

US equity futures traded higher on Friday as markets awaited August consumer inflation figures that could influence expectations ahead of next week’s Federal Reserve policy meeting.

At 02:57 ET (06:57 GMT), Dow futures rose 232 points, or 0.5%, while S&P 500 futures increased 33 points, or 0.4%. Nasdaq 100 futures were up 120 points, also representing a 0.4% gain.

The moves followed a fourth consecutive decline for the S&P 500 on Thursday. Deutsche Bank analysts pointed to pressure in government bond markets, describing the session as “another terrible day for bonds.”

The US 10-year Treasury yield continued moving towards 5% as investors considered whether higher oil prices could contribute to inflation and affect the interest-rate outlook. The European Central Bank raised borrowing costs on Thursday, while money markets were pricing in further increases over the next year.

“The combination of higher energy prices and a hawkish ECB put fresh pressure on sovereign bonds across the board,” Deutsche Bank analysts said.

August US Inflation Report Awaited

Economists expect headline US consumer prices to have increased 0.4% in August from July, accelerating from the previous monthly rise of 0.1%. Annual inflation is forecast to remain at 3.4%.

Core CPI, which excludes food and energy, is expected to rise 0.2% month on month and 2.4% from a year earlier. The corresponding July figures were 0.2% and 2.5%.

The report comes ahead of the Federal Reserve’s two-day meeting next week. Thursday’s data also showed faster increases in several price components used in the personal consumption expenditures price index, another measure of inflation monitored by the Fed.

Brent Trades Above $100 Amid Middle East Developments

Brent crude futures declined on Friday but remained above $100 per barrel as investors continued to monitor shipping conditions in the Middle East.

“Once again, it is geopolitical fears driving everything,” Deutsche Bank analysts said.

Iran-backed Houthi forces in Yemen captured a port city on Thursday, adding to concerns about shipping around the Bab el-Mandeb Strait between the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden.

Shipping data cited by Reuters showed seven vessel transits through the Strait of Hormuz on Thursday, compared with a 10-day moving average of 15.

Brent subsequently moved lower after the Financial Times reported that Gulf foreign ministers and Iranian authorities were discussing a temporary arrangement concerning shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.

Oracle Reports More Than $30 Billion in New AI Cloud Contracts

Oracle (NYSE:ORCL) reported quarterly earnings and revenue above analyst forecasts and raised its full-year profit guidance.

The company, which operates cloud infrastructure alongside its database software and enterprise applications businesses, reported further contracting activity related to artificial intelligence.

“Customer demand for AI Cloud Training and Inferencing Services continues to grow faster than supply,” Oracle said in a statement.

Oracle recorded more than $30 billion of additional AI cloud contracts during the quarter. Remaining performance obligations increased to $664 billion.

The company said most of the revenue covered by the new contracts would not require substantial semiconductor expenditure and maintained its annual spending target of $90 billion to $95 billion.

Oracle shares rose in extended-hours trading after the results.

Adobe Q3 Revenue Reaches $6.76 Billion

Adobe (NASDAQ:ADBE) reported third-quarter adjusted earnings of $6.13 per share, compared with an analyst consensus of $6.07.

Quarterly revenue was $6.76 billion, above the $6.69 billion consensus estimate.

Adobe forecast fourth-quarter revenue of $6.80 billion to $6.85 billion. The midpoint of $6.825 billion compares with an analyst consensus of $6.85 billion.

The company expects fourth-quarter adjusted earnings of $6.30 to $6.35 per share. Adobe shares declined in extended-hours trading following the results.

The FTSE 100 was little changed on Friday as stronger-than-expected UK economic growth data was balanced by continued concerns over disruption in the Strait of Hormuz.

The FTSE 100 was down 0.03% at 03:25 ET (07:25 GMT). Elsewhere in Europe, Germany’s DAX gained 0.28% and France’s CAC 40 rose 0.55%. Sterling was 0.09% higher against the US dollar at $1.3524.

UK gross domestic product increased 0.4% in July, exceeding expectations and extending growth recorded during the first half of the year, according to the Office for National Statistics. The economy expanded 1.6% from a year earlier, the fastest annual rate since February 2025.

“Ongoing strength in the services sector was only partially offset by falls in both production and construction,” ONS Director of Economic Statistics Liz McKeown said, adding that artificial intelligence appeared to be supporting software development.

Geopolitical developments remained in focus after Iran’s Revolutionary Guard Corps said its navy had struck a US “Saildrone-type” unmanned vessel in the Strait of Hormuz, claiming it had “thwarted its aggressive mission.”

The statement followed a resolution by the International Atomic Energy Agency accusing Iran of “noncompliance” with its nuclear non-proliferation commitments and referring the issue to the UN Security Council. Iran’s UN envoy, Gholamhossein Darzi, described the accusations as “political and not technical in nature.”

Preliminary ship-tracking data showed seven vessels transited the Strait of Hormuz on Thursday, compared with 11 a day earlier and a 10-day average of 15, according to Reuters.

Analysts at ING said oil’s performance “reflects a market now repricing both the duration and severity of the conflict, along with a clearer recognition of the mounting threat to regional supply.” They also cited risks to Saudi energy infrastructure and Red Sea crude exports as Houthi forces target Saudi Arabia following their seizure of the Yemeni port of Mokha.

Brent crude declined 2.12% to $105.35 a barrel, while WTI fell 1.76% to $100.69. Gold futures were down 0.38% at $4,390.25, while spot gold rose 0.76% to $4,349.24.

UK Round-Up

Berkeley Group (LSE:BKG) said buyer caution and UK political uncertainty were affecting housing demand while calling for changes to stamp duty and planning regulations. The housebuilder has maintained its target of £1.4 billion in pre-tax profit over four years.

Trainline (LSE:TRN) reported first-half net ticket sales of £3.3 billion and underlying revenue of £233 million. The company reaffirmed its FY2027 guidance and announced a new £100 million share buyback programme.

European equities traded lower on Thursday as investors assessed the European Central Bank’s interest-rate increase, higher oil prices and continued tensions in the Middle East.

The U.K.’s FTSE 100 fell 0.6%, Germany’s DAX declined 0.4% and France’s CAC 40 was down 0.2%.

The ECB raised interest rates by 25 basis points, in line with market expectations. The central bank said the conflict in the Middle East continued to generate inflationary pressures and that inflation was expected to remain above its target for an extended period.

Brent crude futures moved above $105 a barrel following renewed attacks on tankers and concerns about potential supply disruptions.

U.S. Treasury yields also moved higher after rising on Wednesday. The U.S. Treasury increased the size of a long-dated debt buyback operation, although the increase was below the level some investors had expected.

German Inflation Reaches Four-Month High

Germany’s annual consumer price inflation accelerated to 2.9% in August from 2.8% in July, matching the initial estimate, according to Destatis. The August rate was the highest since April.

EU-harmonised inflation also increased to 2.9% from 2.8%, in line with the previous estimate.

Among individual stocks, Porsche (TG:P911) shares rose after the German sports car manufacturer completed the sale of its stakes in Bugatti Rimac and Rimac Group.

Currys (LSE:CURY) shares moved lower after the British electricals retailer maintained its annual outlook and reported a 7% increase in like-for-like sales for the 17 weeks to August 29.

U.S. equity futures advanced on Thursday as markets monitored developments in the conflict between the U.S. and Iran, higher oil prices and upcoming inflation data. Oracle (NYSE:ORCL) and Adobe (NASDAQ:ADBE) are also scheduled to report results after the closing bell.

At 03:02 ET (07:02 GMT), Dow futures gained 213 points, or 0.4%, while S&P 500 futures rose 18 points, or 0.2%. Nasdaq 100 futures were up 15 points, or 0.1%.

The gains followed declines for Wall Street’s main indices in the previous session as further military exchanges between the U.S. and Iran increased uncertainty surrounding the Strait of Hormuz.

Brent crude moved above $100 per barrel for the first time since July. Markets are also awaiting U.S. producer and consumer inflation figures scheduled for release this week.

U.S. Treasury yields increased, with the benchmark 10-year yield reaching 4.84%, its highest level since 2023. The move followed the increase in oil prices and news that the U.S. Treasury would repurchase fewer government bonds in its latest operation than some analysts had anticipated.

The S&P 500 recorded its third consecutive daily decline on Wednesday.

“So even though we’re just over a week into September, it’s already living up to its reputation as one of the toughest months of the year for markets,” Deutsche Bank analysts said in a note.

Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) shares closed lower after the company introduced a foldable version of its iPhone priced at $1,999.

Trump Comments on Timing of Iran Conflict

U.S. President Donald Trump told supporters on Wednesday that he expects the conflict with Iran to end after the November midterm elections.

The comments came after recent exchanges of air strikes between the U.S. and Iran. The supplied information cited polling suggesting the conflict has affected Trump’s approval ratings and could influence Republican results in the midterm elections. Gasoline prices have also risen since the fighting began in late February.

Trump accused Tehran of attempting to influence the election.

An interim ceasefire agreement reached in June did not last, while Trump has previously set other deadlines for ending the conflict.

The Wall Street Journal reported that senior advisers have told Trump the conflict could continue through the remainder of his presidency, which is scheduled to end in January 2029.

Oracle Set to Report as AI Spending Remains in Focus

Oracle is due to publish its latest results after Thursday’s closing bell.

The company has previously outlined plans for increased spending and debt financing as it develops additional artificial intelligence infrastructure.

Oracle has entered into agreements with companies including Meta Platforms and OpenAI as part of its cloud and AI operations.

In June, Oracle said it expected to raise around $40 billion through debt and equity financing next year, compared with a previous $20 billion at-the-market equity issuance.

The company forecast fiscal 2027 capital expenditure of $95 billion. That compared with an analyst consensus estimate of $67.66 billion, according to LSEG data cited by Reuters.

Adobe Earnings Due After Closing Bell

Adobe is also scheduled to report results after U.S. markets close on Thursday.

The report will be the company’s first since the departure of Chief Financial Officer Dan Durn was announced in June. Chief Executive Shantanu Narayen also stepped down earlier in the year.

Adobe previously increased its annual revenue and profit forecasts. Its AI-related annual recurring revenue exceeded $500 million at the end of the second quarter.

The company continues to develop AI-related products while competing with design software providers including Figma and Canva.

ECB Expected to Raise Interest Rates

The European Central Bank is widely expected to increase interest rates following its latest policy meeting.

The decision comes against a backdrop of higher energy prices associated with the Middle East conflict. European natural gas prices have reached their highest levels since 2023.

According to the supplied information, markets had fully priced in a 25-basis-point rate increase.

ING analysts described the expected move as an “insurance hike,” designed to “strengthen its credibility and to preempt any possible indirect or even second-round effects from the current energy price shock.”

FTSE 100 opens flat ahead of the ECB decision as Currys reports 7% sales growth, Fevertree posts higher revenue and Brent remains in focus.

Market Overview

The FTSE 100 opened broadly unchanged at 10,669.90 as investors awaited the European Central Bank’s interest-rate decision, with elevated oil prices and continued US-Iran tensions keeping the wider backdrop cautious. The Euronext 100 was also broadly unchanged at 1,896.63, while Germany’s DAX gained 0.11 per cent to 25,603.96. In the US, the Nasdaq closed lower at 26,253.34 and the S&P 500 fell to 7,636.36.

Commodity markets were mixed, with copper, gold and Brent crude moving lower while natural gas rose. Brent remained in focus as attacks on shipping and continued disruption around the Strait of Hormuz sustained concerns over global energy supplies. Against sterling, the US dollar and euro weakened marginally, while the Swiss franc, Japanese yen and Australian dollar strengthened slightly. Bitcoin was down. Markets are also focused on the ECB’s policy guidance and upcoming US inflation data.

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Market Numbers

FTSE 100: Down (-0.001%), 10,669.90
Euronext 100: Down (-0.001%), 1,896.63
DAX: Up (+0.11%), 25,603.96
NASDAQ: Down, 26,253.34
S&P 500: Down, 7,636.36

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In the Headlines

Sales growth – Currys (LSE:CURY)
The consumer technology retailer reported a 7% increase in group like-for-like revenue for the first 17 weeks, with UK & Ireland revenue up 6% and the Nordics up 9%. Currys maintained its full-year guidance and said year-end net cash is expected to remain well above its £100 million target.

Revenue and EBITDA growth – Fevertree Drinks (LSE:FEVR)
The drinks group reported an 8% constant-currency increase in first-half Fever-Tree brand revenue to £183.6 million, while adjusted EBITDA rose 9% to £20.1 million. Fevertree maintained its full-year guidance and announced a new £60 million share buyback programme.

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Currencies (vs GBP)

USD: Down (-0.01%), $1.355
CHF: Up (+0.00%), Fr.1.0975
EUR: Down (-0.00%), €1.1647
JPY: Up (+0.03%), ¥208.058
AUD: Up (+0.01%), $1.8762
Bitcoin (BTC/GBP): Down, £57,532.33

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Commodities

Copper: Down
Gold: Down
Brent Crude: Down
Natural Gas: Up

The FTSE 100 edged higher on Thursday as investors awaited the European Central Bank’s interest-rate decision while monitoring developments in the U.S.-Iran conflict and oil markets.

The FTSE 100 was up 0.06% at 03:18 ET (07:18 GMT). Elsewhere in Europe, Germany’s DAX gained 0.12% and France’s CAC 40 rose 0.30%.

Sterling traded at $1.3554 against the U.S. dollar, up 0.07% on the day.

Markets were awaiting the ECB’s policy announcement, with a 25-basis-point increase across all three benchmark interest rates priced in as near-certain.

Strait of Hormuz Traffic Remains Below Recent Average

Iranian state media reported that projectiles struck several locations along Iran’s southern coastline in Sirik early Thursday, with explosions also reported across Minab County and Qeshm Island.

Vessel transits through the Strait of Hormuz declined to seven on Wednesday from 12 a day earlier, according to preliminary ship-tracking data cited by Reuters. The figure was below the 10-day average of 14 vessels.

Some ships were operating with their transponders switched off, meaning the data may not capture all vessel movements.

CBS News reported that multiple U.S. military aircraft were damaged by Iranian ballistic missile strikes on the Al Azraq airbase in Jordan early Wednesday, citing sources with direct knowledge of the matter.

According to the report, around eight F-15 aircraft sustained light damage and subsequently returned to service, while an A-10 Thunderbolt lost a wing. U.S. forces fired more than 30 Patriot missiles in response, CBS News reported.

Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps said the attacks were retaliation for U.S. strikes on five Iranian oil tankers on Tuesday.

Speaking at the Republican midterm convention in Dallas on Wednesday, U.S. President Donald Trump said Washington was “winning” the conflict and predicted that oil prices would decline after the war ended following November’s elections. He also left open the possibility of negotiations.

ING analysts said current signals “point to further escalation, keeping upside pressure firmly in place,” adding that significant disruption to Strait of Hormuz flows could tighten the oil market “more sharply” than developments in recent weeks had indicated.

ING also cited increased Chinese activity in the physical oil market, particularly in the North Sea, while noting that Chinese crude imports remain below year-earlier levels. The analysts said Beijing’s purchasing behaviour would be “crucial to the outlook.”

Brent Crude Trades Above $100 a Barrel

Brent crude futures for November delivery declined 0.37% to $100.89 a barrel, while October U.S. West Texas Intermediate futures fell 0.23% to $95.83.

December gold futures were down 0.08% at $4,456.97 an ounce, while spot gold gained 0.26% to $4,413.22.

In UK foreign policy developments, Foreign Secretary Ed Miliband described Israel’s decision to close London’s consulate in Jerusalem as “regrettable and damaging.”

UN special rapporteur Francesca Albanese described a UK-led ban on imports from illegal Israeli settlements as “potentially seismic,” while saying it should also cover East Jerusalem and Gaza.

UK Corporate Updates

Associated British Foods (LSE:ABF) said Primark plans to introduce home delivery in the UK, while like-for-like sales are expected to decline 3% in the fourth quarter to 12 September.

Currys (LSE:CURY) reported 7% like-for-like sales growth in the first quarter, citing demand for cooling products during the summer heatwave and growth in its Nordic operations.

THG (LSE:THG) reported that first-half adjusted EBITDA more than doubled to £42.8 million. The company said EU parcel duties are expected to limit third-quarter revenue growth to approximately 2%.

Wall Street was on course to open lower on Wednesday as another rise in crude oil prices added to concerns over inflation and the outlook for U.S. interest rates.

Brent crude climbed through $100 a barrel for the first time since July, while U.S. crude futures gained around 3% following further military exchanges involving the U.S. and Iran.

U.S. forces destroyed five Iranian crude carriers after Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps targeted a U.S. Navy warship with ballistic missiles.

U.S. Central Command said the tankers formed part of a multibillion-dollar network used to finance the IRGC and regional groups aligned with Tehran.

Iran subsequently launched missiles targeting U.S. military positions in Jordan, adding to concerns about the possibility of a broader regional conflict.

Oil rally raises questions over Fed policy

The latest increase in energy prices has brought inflation risks back into focus ahead of the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy meeting next week.

“Brent crude pushing above $100 a barrel has had a psychological effect on the market, pushing a hypothetical inflation worry gauge to ‘serious’ status and dragging down financial assets,” said Dan Coatsworth, head of markets at AJ Bell.

“The oil price has now jumped by 28% since early August,” Coatsworth added. “This type of ascent could leave businesses and consumers feeling sick at the thought of sharp cost increases and potentially higher borrowing costs if central banks choose to fight inflation with interest rate hikes.”

Attention will also turn to U.S. consumer and producer inflation figures due later this week. The data could shape expectations for the Fed’s next interest rate decision.

U.S. indices extend losses after Labor Day break

The expected weaker open follows declines across Wall Street on Tuesday, when markets returned from the Labor Day weekend.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average recorded the largest decline among the major indices, dropping 628.18 points, or 1.2%, to 52,786.07.

The S&P 500 fell 45.08 points, or 0.6%, to 7,673.52, while the Nasdaq Composite finished 85.58 points, or 0.3%, lower at 26,421.41.

Tuesday’s declines also coincided with higher oil prices after U.S. forces struck three Iranian crude carriers over the weekend following Iranian missile launches towards two U.S. Navy vessels.

Iran has threatened further retaliation if the U.S. attacks additional Iranian assets, while Saudi-led coalition forces have said they will respond to attacks by Houthi forces.

Separately, Tehran said an agreement with Oman over the management of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz could be announced shortly.

Pharmaceuticals and housing stocks decline

Amgen (NASDAQ:AMGN) was among the largest individual decliners on Tuesday, falling more than 10% after Novartis (NYSE:NVS) released late-stage trial results for a competing cholesterol treatment.

Weakness spread across the pharmaceutical sector, sending the NYSE Arca Pharmaceutical Index down 3.2%.

Housing shares also came under pressure as Treasury yields increased. The Philadelphia Housing Sector Index declined 2.8%.

Healthcare, biotechnology and airline stocks recorded further losses, while oil, semiconductor and networking shares were among the areas of the market that moved higher.

European equities moved lower on Wednesday following further military exchanges involving the U.S. and Iran, while investors also prepared for the European Central Bank’s monetary policy decision on Thursday.

U.S. forces destroyed five Iranian tankers, while Iran subsequently launched missile strikes targeting Jordan, adding to the continuing conflict in the Middle East.

Markets were also pricing in a 25-basis-point interest rate increase from the ECB at Thursday’s meeting.

France’s CAC 40 fell 1.9%, Germany’s DAX declined 1.7% and the UK’s FTSE 100 was down 1.1%.

Energy shares rise as Brent moves above $100

Energy companies were among the stocks moving higher as Brent crude rose above $100 a barrel.

BP Plc (LSE:BP.), Shell (LSE:SHEL) and TotalEnergies (EU:TTE) advanced as oil prices increased amid concerns about potential further disruption to global supplies from the Gulf region.

Elsewhere, Swiss building materials company Holcim (TG:HLBN) declined after investing in Cloud Cycle, a UK-based start-up that provides a real-time data system for ready-mix concrete operations.

French tubular solutions provider Vallourec (EU:VK) also traded lower after signing an agreement with Saudi Aramco to supply Oil Country Tubular Goods pipes.

Victrex, Energean and Aberdeen move higher

Victrex (LSE:VCT) rose after increasing its full-year pre-tax profit guidance and appointing an interim Chief Financial Officer.

Energean (LSE:ENOG) also advanced after reporting a 45% increase in first-half profit.

Aberdeen (LSE:ABDN) moved higher after appointing Torbjorn Magnusson as its new chair.