Category: Market Summary

U.S. stock futures moved higher on Thursday as investors followed developments around a potential new round of discussions between Washington and Tehran. Efforts are ongoing to prolong a temporary ceasefire and restore traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. Oil prices edged up but stayed below the $100 per barrel level. Meanwhile, China reported better-than-expected first-quarter growth, and semiconductor leader TSMC (NYSE:TSM) posted record-breaking profits.

Futures point upward

Futures linked to major U.S. indices indicated a stronger open, supported by optimism over possible progress toward a lasting ceasefire in the Middle East, along with encouraging early signals from corporate earnings.

At 03:38 ET, Dow futures were up 56 points, or 0.1%, S&P 500 futures gained 15 points, or 0.2%, and Nasdaq 100 futures advanced 114 points, or 0.4%. Outside the U.S., Japan’s Nikkei reached a new all-time high, while European stocks traded modestly higher.

In the prior session, both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite closed at record levels, largely driven by hopes that the Iran conflict could soon de-escalate.

Executives from leading Wall Street banks also suggested the U.S. economy remains broadly resilient despite the energy shock tied to disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, a critical route for global oil shipments.

“[W]hile it’s still early in the [calendar first-quarter] reporting season, and the full fallout from the Iran war hasn’t been felt yet in the economy, we’ve been positively surprised by corporate results thus far, especially the ‘status quo’ messaging from bank CEOs,” analysts at Vital Knowledge said in a note.

Additional earnings reports are expected later today, with PepsiCo scheduled before the opening bell and Netflix after market close.

Attention on Iran talks

Analysts noted that expectations for an extension of the current truce between the U.S. and Iran have become widely priced in, meaning further headlines around negotiations may have a reduced impact on markets.

Although no formal agreement has been reached, recent reports suggest diplomatic progress is being made.

Mediators continue working toward a more permanent ceasefire as the existing two-week truce nears its end. According to the Wall Street Journal, both sides have agreed in principle to resume talks after an initial round in Pakistan failed to produce a breakthrough, though no date or location has been set.

The WSJ also reported that Vice President JD Vance is expected to head the U.S. delegation in future discussions.

President Donald Trump has also indicated that talks between Israel and Lebanon are expected to take place today, with the Financial Times reporting that a ceasefire between the two parties could be reached “soon.”

Oil remains below $100

Tensions remain, particularly surrounding the ongoing U.S. naval blockade of Iranian ports. A senior Iranian military official has warned Washington against maintaining the blockade, while U.S. Central Command insists that no Iranian-linked vessels have managed to bypass it.

Other reports suggest that some ships and tankers have successfully navigated the Strait of Hormuz in recent days. Reuters also indicated that Iran may allow vessels to pass through the Omani side of the strait without interference as part of a broader agreement.

Against this backdrop, oil prices moved slightly higher but stayed under $100 per barrel, still significantly above pre-conflict levels. On a weekly basis, however, crude has come under pressure, with gains limited by expectations of easing tensions between the U.S. and Iran.

China growth exceeds expectations

China’s economy expanded more than forecast in the first quarter of 2026, supported by strong exports and a rebound in domestic consumption.

Gross domestic product rose 5% year on year, matching the upper end of the government’s annual target.

The data provided some support for expectations around oil demand in the world’s largest importer, although other indicators pointed to slowing momentum toward the end of the quarter.

China’s outlook remains uncertain, particularly given its reliance on crude imports from Iran.

TSMC posts record results

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (NYSE:TSM) reported first-quarter earnings that exceeded expectations, benefiting from continued strong demand driven by artificial intelligence.

The company posted net profit of T$572.48 billion ($18.15 billion) for the three months to March 31, beating Bloomberg estimates of T$542.38 billion and marking a 58.3% increase from a year earlier.

Revenue rose 35% to T$1.134 trillion during the quarter.

TSMC warned that disruptions to chemical and energy supplies linked to the Middle East conflict could weigh on margins, although it does not expect a material impact in the near term.

U.S. equity futures were little changed early Wednesday, pointing to a muted start as markets pause following two sessions of strong gains.

Investors appear hesitant to extend the rally, which recently pushed both the Nasdaq and the S&P 500 to their highest closing levels in more than two months.

Lingering uncertainty around the Middle East conflict is also keeping some traders on the sidelines, with attention focused on the possibility of another round of U.S.-Iran negotiations.

Speaking to Fox Business, President Donald Trump said the conflict is “very close to over” and reiterated that Iran wants to strike a deal “very badly.”

He also suggested that the “stock market is going to boom” once tensions between the U.S., Israel and Iran are resolved.

Despite the recent rally, AJ Bell investment director Russ Mould warned that “there remains considerable uncertainty over a successful outcome from peace negotiations.”

Stocks rallied sharply on Tuesday, building on Monday’s gains, with major indices closing firmly higher and technology stocks leading the advance.

By the end of the session, the main benchmarks were at or near their highs. The Nasdaq rose 455.35 points, or 2%, to 23,639.08, the S&P 500 added 81.14 points, or 1.2%, to 6,967.38, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 317.74 points, or 0.7%, to 48,535.99.

The sustained advance lifted both the Nasdaq and the S&P 500 to their strongest closing levels in over two months, while the Dow reached a one-month high.

Market sentiment has been supported in part by optimism around a potential second phase of U.S.-Iran talks aimed at resolving the conflict.

Earlier in the week, President Donald Trump said the U.S. had been approached by Iran regarding renewed discussions, adding, “They’d like to make a deal very badly.”

In a subsequent interview with the New York Post, he said a follow-up round of talks “could be happening over next two days.”

Expectations of diplomatic progress have weighed on oil prices, with U.S. crude futures falling 7%.

“Previously, the narrative was straightforward: the longer the war dragged on, the worse the outlook for growth, inflation and risk assets,” said Daniela Hathorn, Senior Market Analyst at Capital.com. “Now, the dynamic appears to have flipped.”

“With a ceasefire framework still loosely in place and the US attempting to control the Strait, the absence of escalation, rather than the presence of conflict, is being treated as a positive signal,” she added. “In other words, each day without a major disruption to Gulf energy infrastructure is being read as incremental progress toward stabilization.”

Further supporting sentiment, data from the Labor Department showed U.S. producer prices rose less than expected in March.

The producer price index for final demand increased 0.5% in March, matching a downwardly revised figure for February.

Economists had forecast a 1.2% increase, compared with an initially reported 0.7% gain in the prior month.

On an annual basis, producer prices rose 4.0% in March, up from 3.4% in February, but below expectations of 4.6%.

Airline stocks led gains across sectors, with the NYSE Arca Airline Index jumping 5.1%.

Brokerage stocks also advanced, as reflected by a 2.4% rise in the NYSE Arca Broker/Dealer Index.

Biotech, retail and semiconductor stocks posted notable gains, while energy shares declined sharply alongside falling oil prices.

Futures tied to the major U.S. indices were largely unchanged, as investors balanced expectations of renewed diplomatic engagement between the United States and Iran with a busy earnings calendar. Hopes of easing tensions have helped keep oil prices below the $100-per-barrel mark, even as Washington maintains its blockade of Iranian ports. Meanwhile, fresh results from major U.S. banks continue to suggest the domestic economy remains resilient despite geopolitical pressures.

Futures hold near flatline

U.S. equity futures traded in a tight range on Wednesday, with markets digesting developments in Middle East diplomacy alongside a steady stream of corporate earnings.

As of 03:28 ET, futures on the Dow Jones, S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 were broadly flat.

Despite bouts of volatility linked to the Iran conflict and the effective shutdown of the Strait of Hormuz—one of the world’s most important shipping corridors—U.S. equities have continued their upward trend. The S&P 500 finished Tuesday close to record levels, while the Nasdaq Composite has climbed about 14% over the past 10 sessions, marking its longest rally since 2021.

Confidence around the early stages of earnings season has also supported markets. Major Wall Street lenders noted that consumer spending and borrowing remain strong, pointing to an economy that has so far withstood the potential impact of an energy shock tied to the conflict.

“It’s still way too early in the [calendar year first quarter] earnings season to draw any firm conclusions, but so far, we’ve been impressed by the resiliency of Corporate America,” analysts at Vital Knowledge said in a note.

Trump points to possible Iran talks

U.S. President Donald Trump indicated that discussions between Washington and Tehran could resume within the next couple of days, following an initial round of talks held in Pakistan over the weekend.

Vice President JD Vance, who led the U.S. delegation in Islamabad, also struck a positive tone regarding the progress of negotiations.

However, the U.S. has continued enforcing its blockade on Iranian ports, with officials stating that maritime trade in and out of the country has effectively come to a halt. The restrictions were introduced earlier this week after talks in Pakistan failed to produce an immediate ceasefire, though expectations for a quick agreement had already been tempered.

The blockade has heightened concerns about oil flows through the Persian Gulf, where shipments have already slowed considerably. Still, the Wall Street Journal reported that more than 20 commercial vessels have recently transited the Strait of Hormuz, suggesting some improvement in shipping activity.

Oil prices remain contained

With expectations of a possible de-escalation, crude prices stayed below the $100 threshold.

At 03:16 ET, Brent crude futures rose 0.3% to $95.10 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate slipped 0.2% to $91.12.

The softer oil backdrop has contributed to a modest pullback in the U.S. dollar, which had strengthened earlier in the conflict as a safe-haven asset. A dollar index tracking the greenback against a basket of currencies is now only slightly above pre-war levels seen in late February.

Even so, oil prices remain elevated relative to pre-conflict levels, reflecting ongoing supply concerns tied to disruptions at the Strait of Hormuz, through which roughly a fifth of global oil passes.

According to Reuters, supply risks could increase further after the U.S. chose not to extend a 30-day waiver on sanctions covering Iranian oil shipments at sea, which is set to expire this week. A similar waiver on Russian oil was also not renewed after expiring last weekend.

Focus turns to more bank earnings

Attention is now shifting to additional earnings from U.S. lenders, including Bank of America (NYSE:BAC) and Morgan Stanley (NYSE:MS), both scheduled to report later in the day.

Heightened market volatility—driven by geopolitical tensions and rapid developments in artificial intelligence—has boosted trading revenues at major banks. Firms such as JPMorgan Chase tend to benefit from increased market activity, as clients adjust portfolios and execute more hedging trades.

JPMorgan reported a 20% increase in markets revenue for the three months ended March 31, reflecting similar performance at peers like Goldman Sachs.

Despite turbulent conditions, banking executives have also pointed to a strong pipeline for dealmaking, with expectations that 2026 could see a surge in major transactions, particularly involving companies in artificial intelligence and space sectors.

European earnings also in focus

In Europe, corporate results have also influenced sentiment.

Hermès (EU:RMS) reported slower quarterly sales growth due to demand pressures linked to the Middle East conflict. Meanwhile, Kering (EU:KER) posted weaker sales, although it noted signs of improving demand trends. Together with recent results from LVMH, these updates suggest the luxury sector may be facing mounting headwinds.

Shares of Hermès and Kering both fell sharply on Wednesday.

On the other hand, ASML (EU:ASML) provided support to broader European markets. The company raised its full-year sales outlook, benefiting from strong demand tied to the artificial intelligence boom. Chipmakers such as TSMC and Intel continue to invest heavily in its technology as they expand their AI capabilities.

ASML shares rose by more than 1%.

U.S. equity futures are pointing to a higher open on Tuesday, suggesting markets may build on the strong gains recorded in the previous session.

Investor sentiment is being lifted by renewed optimism surrounding a potential second round of negotiations between the U.S. and Iran aimed at ending the Middle East conflict.

President Donald Trump said on Monday that Iranian officials had reached out to Washington about restarting discussions, stating, “They’d like to make a deal very badly.”

Expectations of renewed talks have weighed on oil prices, with U.S. crude futures dropping more than 3%.

“Previously, the narrative was straightforward: the longer the war dragged on, the worse the outlook for growth, inflation and risk assets,” said Daniela Hathorn, Senior Market Analyst at Capital.com. “Now, the dynamic appears to have flipped.”

“With a ceasefire framework still loosely in place and the US attempting to control the Strait, the absence of escalation, rather than the presence of conflict, is being treated as a positive signal,” she added. “In other words, each day without a major disruption to Gulf energy infrastructure is being read as incremental progress toward stabilization.”

Market confidence also received a boost from fresh economic data. Figures from the U.S. Department of Labor showed producer price inflation rose less than expected in March.

The producer price index for final demand increased 0.5% during the month, in line with a revised reading for February. Economists had forecast a larger 1.2% gain compared to the originally reported 0.7% rise in the previous month.

On a yearly basis, producer prices rose 4.0% in March, up from 3.4% in February, but still below expectations of 4.6%.

Stocks initially declined early in Monday’s session but staged a strong recovery as the day progressed, ending firmly in positive territory.

The Nasdaq climbed 280.84 points, or 1.2%, to 23,183.74, the S&P 500 advanced 69.35 points, or 1.0%, to 6,886.24, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 301.68 points, or 0.7%, to 48,218.25.

Traders continue to monitor geopolitical developments after weekend talks between the U.S. and Iran failed to produce an agreement.

“They have chosen not to accept our terms,” said JD Vance at a brief press briefing, while noting that negotiations could still resume. Iranian officials said that “unreasonable U.S. demands” had hindered progress.

Markets largely brushed aside reports that President Trump had imposed a naval blockade on traffic entering and leaving Iranian ports.

U.S. Central Command confirmed that the blockade would apply to vessels from all countries operating in Iranian ports and nearby waters, including the Arabian Gulf and Gulf of Oman.

“Effective immediately, the United States Navy, the Finest in the World, will begin the process of BLOCKADING any and all Ships trying to enter, or leave, the Strait of Hormuz,” Trump said in a post on Truth Social.

He also stated that U.S. forces are “locked and loaded” and ready to “finish up the little that is left of Iran” at an “appropriate moment.”

Although these developments initially pushed oil prices higher, investors appear to believe that tensions will ease and a broader conflict can be avoided.

Attention is also turning to the start of earnings season, with expectations that corporate results will remain resilient despite geopolitical headwinds.

Sector-wise, software stocks rebounded strongly, lifting the Dow Jones U.S. Software Index by 4.6%, while computer hardware shares also advanced, with the NYSE Arca Computer Hardware Index gaining 4.4%.

Brokerage stocks posted solid gains as well, pushing the NYSE Arca Broker/Dealer Index up 2.9%.

Transportation, semiconductor, and networking stocks also moved higher, while utilities and natural gas shares lagged.

U.S. equity futures ticked modestly higher on Tuesday, while oil prices retreated, as investors responded to signs of possible progress in efforts to bring the Iran conflict to a lasting end. However, a U.S. blockade of Iranian ports has now entered its second day, further disrupting crude shipments through the critical Strait of Hormuz. Meanwhile, a wave of major U.S. bank earnings is set to dominate market attention, while LVMH (EU:MC) highlighted a hit to sales from the Middle East tensions.

Futures Move Higher

U.S. stock futures showed slight gains, supported by optimism surrounding ongoing negotiations between Washington and Tehran aimed at securing a permanent ceasefire. Investors are also bracing for a busy earnings session led by major financial institutions.

As of 03:17 ET, Dow futures rose by 51 points, or 0.1%, S&P 500 futures added 10 points, or 0.1%, and Nasdaq 100 futures climbed 72 points, or 0.3%.

Wall Street’s main indices had closed higher in the previous session, as initial disappointment over the lack of an immediate breakthrough in weekend talks between the U.S. and Iran began to fade. U.S. President Donald Trump said the White House had been contacted by Iranian officials and that he wants to “make a deal,” adding that Iran will not obtain a nuclear weapon.

“[W]hile the meeting was certainly disappointing, it was hardly catastrophic, and if one looks closely, Trump seems to be pivoting aggressively away from kinetic escalation,” analysts at Vital Knowledge wrote in a note.

They added that their overall view of the conflict remains “relatively sanguine,” although the “economic fallout from what’s already occurred” could prove “significant.”

U.S. Port Blockade Extends

At the same time, the U.S. blockade of Iranian ports, introduced on Monday, is adding further pressure to oil flows already constrained through the Strait of Hormuz.

Tehran has condemned the move as an “act of piracy,” with reports indicating that roughly 15 U.S. warships are involved. British maritime authorities said access has been restricted for vessels entering or leaving Iranian ports, as well as in coastal waters across the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, and parts of the Arabian Sea.

Despite these tensions, diplomatic channels appear to be making headway. According to Reuters, the U.S. and Iran remain engaged, with some progress toward a permanent ceasefire agreement.

Pakistan, which has emerged as a key intermediary, has offered to host a second round of talks ahead of the expiration of the current two-week truce. The initial meeting took place in Islamabad over the weekend.

Elsewhere, Israel and Lebanon are set to begin direct peace talks in Washington, although ongoing Israeli strikes against Iran-aligned Hezbollah targets in Lebanon remain a key source of tension.

Oil Slips Below $100

Expectations that diplomacy could lead to easing tensions—and potentially restore smoother shipping through the Strait of Hormuz—have pushed oil prices lower, with both major benchmarks falling below $100 per barrel.

Brent crude declined 1.5% to $97.88 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate dropped 3.4% to $95.78 a barrel.

Even so, the outlook remains uncertain. In its first assessment of the Iran conflict’s impact released Monday, OPEC cut its forecast for global oil demand in the second quarter by 500,000 barrels per day.

However, the reduction was less severe than some projections, and OPEC left its full-year outlook unchanged, suggesting expectations for a rebound in consumption later in 2026.

Bank Earnings in Focus

Market attention is now turning to the earnings calendar, with several major U.S. banks set to report results.

JPMorgan Chase (NYSE:JPM), Wells Fargo (NYSE:WFC), and Citigroup (NYSE:C) are due to release quarterly figures ahead of the market open, followed by Bank of America (NYSE:BAC) and Morgan Stanley (NYSE:MS) on Wednesday.

Analysts expect results to be supported by strong trading activity and investment banking revenues, even as uncertainty linked to the Iran conflict lingers. Earlier this month, Jamie Dimon warned that the conflict could trigger commodity price shocks, keeping inflation elevated and pushing interest rates higher than current expectations.

On Monday, Goldman Sachs (NYSE:GS) reported a 19% rise in first-quarter profit, driven by robust performance across its trading and investment banking divisions.

LVMH Flags Sales Impact

In Europe, shares of LVMH (EU:MC) fell in early trading after the company said the Middle East conflict had reduced group sales by at least 1%, weighing on expectations for a continued recovery in the luxury sector.

The group, which owns brands such as Louis Vuitton and Bulgari, reported quarterly sales growth of 1%, missing forecasts for a 1.5% increase, according to Visible Alpha estimates cited by Reuters.

Chief Financial Officer Cécile Cabanis said that “[w]hat we see today is still that demand is very much down” following disruptions to shopping activity in the Middle East since the outbreak of the Iran conflict.

Rival Kering (EU:KER), owner of Gucci, is scheduled to report results after the close of European markets later in the day.