Category: Market Summary

Futures tied to major U.S. stock indices showed little movement on Friday, as investors remained cautious amid a fragile ceasefire between the United States and Iran. Ongoing Israeli strikes against Hezbollah-linked targets in Lebanon have heightened uncertainty ahead of potential weekend talks between Washington and Tehran. At the same time, oil prices edged higher while gold slipped, with market participants also preparing for key U.S. inflation data.

Futures remain subdued

U.S. equity futures traded with a cautious tone early in the session, reflecting concerns over geopolitical tensions, continued disruption in the Strait of Hormuz, and the imminent release of inflation figures.

As of 03:27 ET, Dow futures were down 60 points, or 0.1%, S&P 500 futures fell by 4 points, or 0.15%, and Nasdaq 100 futures were largely unchanged.

Wall Street closed the previous session higher, supported by remarks from Benjamin Netanyahu indicating that Israel may pursue talks with Lebanon. Despite the announcement of a temporary ceasefire earlier in the week, Israeli forces have continued targeting Iran-backed Hezbollah positions, including strikes reported on Friday.

Iranian officials have suggested that continued Israeli military action could jeopardize any planned negotiations with the U.S., particularly if attacks persist. There also appears to be disagreement between Washington and Tehran over whether Lebanon is covered by the current ceasefire arrangement.

Even so, expectations for a potential easing of tensions have helped sustain risk appetite. U.S. equities have now recorded seven consecutive sessions of gains, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average returning to positive territory for the year.

Outside geopolitical developments, consumer discretionary stocks were supported after Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN) CEO Andy Jassy said the company’s cloud-based artificial intelligence services are generating more than $15 billion in revenue.

Oil rises on supply disruptions

Shipping activity through the Strait of Hormuz remains heavily constrained, with volumes still running below 10% of normal levels despite the ceasefire.

Iran has instructed vessels to remain within its territorial waters when passing through the strait, a critical route for global oil supplies. This disruption continues to impact countries heavily reliant on energy imports, particularly in Asia, while Europe depends on gas supplies from Gulf nations affected by recent tensions.

In addition, attacks on Saudi energy infrastructure have reduced oil production capacity by roughly 600,000 barrels per day and cut flows along the East-West Pipeline by about 700,000 barrels per day.

These supply concerns helped push oil prices higher. Brent crude rose 1.4% to $97.24 per barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate gained 1.4% to $99.25. Although the ceasefire has set crude on course for its sharpest weekly decline since June 2025, prices remain elevated compared with pre-conflict levels.

Gold dips but set for weekly gain

Gold prices moved lower during European trading but remained on track for a weekly advance.

Despite its traditional role as a safe-haven asset, gold has struggled during the Iran conflict. Higher oil prices have fueled inflation concerns and strengthened expectations that the Federal Reserve may keep interest rates elevated for longer, which tends to weigh on non-yielding assets like gold.

Investors have instead favored the U.S. dollar, which has strengthened and made gold more expensive for international buyers. However, the dollar has weakened over the past week amid renewed optimism around a potential ceasefire.

“These levels clearly embed plenty of optimism, but another leg lower for USD is on the cards once, or if, a permanent peace deal is agreed and Strait of Hormuz flows resume,” analysts at ING said in a note.

Focus turns to inflation data

Attention now shifts to the release of U.S. consumer price index data for March, which could provide insight into the inflationary impact of recent energy price increases.

Economists expect headline inflation to accelerate sharply from February levels, driven largely by rising gasoline prices linked to geopolitical tensions. The national average price of gasoline has climbed above $4 per gallon for the first time in more than three years, while diesel prices have also surged.

However, the data is likely to capture only the immediate effects of higher oil prices. Core inflation, which excludes food and energy, is expected to rise at a more moderate pace.

ING analysts noted that the Federal Reserve may place less emphasis on the headline figure in the near term.

TSMC posts strong revenue growth

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (NYSE:TSM) reported a sharp increase in first-quarter revenue, driven by strong demand tied to artificial intelligence.

March revenue climbed 45.2% year on year to T$415.19 billion ($13.07 billion), while rising 30.7% compared with February.

For the quarter, total revenue reached T$1.13 trillion, slightly exceeding estimates and marking a significant increase from T$839.25 billion recorded a year earlier.

U.S. stock futures pointed to a weaker opening on Thursday, suggesting markets could retreat after the strong rally recorded in the previous trading session.

Investors may be inclined to take profits after Wednesday’s surge as concerns resurface about the stability of the Middle East ceasefire. Iran has accused both the United States and Israel of breaching the agreement.

Iran’s deputy foreign minister, Saeed Khatibzadeh, said in an interview with the BBC that Tehran has again shut the Strait of Hormuz.

Khatibzadeh described Israeli strikes on Lebanon earlier in the day as an “intentional grave violation” of the ceasefire agreement.

Oil markets reacted quickly to the developments. U.S. crude futures rebounded sharply, climbing more than 5% after plunging more than 16% during Wednesday’s trading.

“There is an air of renewed nervousness pervading financial markets after the euphoria which was initially prompted by the US-Iran ceasefire,” said Dan Coatsworth, head of markets at AJ Bell.

“This agreement already seems to be fraying at the edges – with continued strikes by Israel on Lebanon a key sticking point,” he added. “With talks on a lasting deal yet to begin it’s understandable that investors are taking a circumspect view.”

Late Wednesday, President Donald Trump wrote in a Truth Social post that U.S. troops would remain in the region until a “real agreement” with Iran is achieved and “fully complied with.”

Despite the emerging concerns, stocks posted strong gains during Wednesday’s session, with the major indexes finishing at their highest levels in roughly a month.

The rally followed a mixed performance on Tuesday. The Dow Jones Industrial Average advanced 1,325.46 points, or 2.9%, to 47,909.92. The Nasdaq Composite jumped 617.15 points, or 2.8%, to 22,635.00, while the S&P 500 rose 165.96 points, or 2.5%, to 6,782.81.

The initial surge on Wall Street was driven by reports that the United States, Israel and Iran had agreed to a temporary two-week ceasefire.

In a Truth Social post on Tuesday evening, President Trump said he had agreed to halt bombing operations against Iran for two weeks, provided Tehran accepted the complete, immediate and safe reopening of the Strait of Hormuz.

Trump said Washington had received a 10-point proposal from Iran that he believed was a “workable basis on which to negotiate,” adding that the two-week pause would allow time for the agreement to be finalized.

Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi later indicated that the Strait of Hormuz would reopen for two weeks if attacks against Iran were halted.

The ceasefire announcement sent oil prices sharply lower, with U.S. crude futures plunging more than 15% and falling well below $100 per barrel.

“The positive market reaction is understandable as a two-week ceasefire raises hope for a complete end to the conflict,” Coatsworth said.

“The ceasefire gives the world a moment to breathe and take stock of events,” he added. “Unfortunately, there is no guarantee that everything will return to normal.”

Airline stocks were among the top performers during Wednesday’s rally, with the NYSE Arca Airline Index jumping 7.3% to its highest closing level in a month.

Semiconductor shares also rallied strongly, driving the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index up by 6.3%.

Networking stocks joined the advance, pushing the NYSE Arca Networking Index higher by 5.3%.

Housing, computer hardware and financial stocks also recorded notable gains, while oil producers and natural gas companies moved lower, diverging from the broader market trend.

U.S. stock index futures edged lower in early trading Thursday as investors assessed whether the tentative two-week ceasefire in the Iran conflict will hold, following signs of strain in the fragile agreement.

The modest decline comes after a powerful rally on Wall Street in the previous session, when the Dow recorded its strongest daily gain in a year after Washington and Tehran indicated they had agreed to pause hostilities for two weeks.

However, disagreements over Lebanon’s role in the ceasefire have emerged, with Iran accusing Israel of breaching the agreement through continued strikes in the country.

Despite the ongoing attacks, Iranian negotiators are expected to arrive in Islamabad later today for “serious talks” with U.S. officials, with discussions tentatively scheduled for Saturday morning.

Adding to the uncertainty, U.S. President Donald Trump said Wednesday evening that American military forces would remain positioned around Iran until a “real agreement” is secured, repeating his demands that Tehran halt its nuclear activities and reopen the Strait of Hormuz.

By 05:52 ET, S&P 500 Futures were down 0.3% at 6,782.81 points. Nasdaq 100 Futures also fell 0.3% to 25,002.0 points, while Dow Jones Futures declined 0.4% to 47,909.9 points.

“Since the [S&P 500] was struggling with 6900-7000 even before the war, that range is going to be even stronger resistance now,” Vital Knowledge analyst Adam Crisafulli said in a morning note.

Iran accuses U.S., Israel of ceasefire violations

Although the United States and Iran initially signaled willingness to observe a two-week ceasefire, Tehran on Wednesday accused both Washington and Israel of breaching several points of its proposed 10-point peace plan.

One of the key disputes involves Israel’s continued strikes in Lebanon, which Iran says were supposed to fall under the ceasefire terms. The White House, however, has indicated Lebanon was not included in the agreement, while Israel has said its campaign against Hezbollah forces will continue.

Iranian officials warned it would be “unreasonable” to proceed with peace negotiations with the United States unless Lebanon is included in the arrangement. Reports also indicated that Iran closed the Strait of Hormuz in response to Israeli operations, after earlier suggesting that shipping would continue during the two-week ceasefire.

Officials from Washington and Tehran are expected to begin talks in Pakistan later this week, although the precise agenda remains unclear. Iran has also largely rejected U.S. demands that it halt uranium enrichment and surrender its uranium stockpile.

Oil prices, which initially fell on news of the ceasefire, recovered some of their losses Wednesday evening.

Wall Street jumps on ceasefire optimism

U.S. equity markets posted strong gains Wednesday after the ceasefire announcement raised hopes that nearly six weeks of conflict in the Middle East could begin to ease.

The S&P 500 rose 2.5% to 6,782.96 points, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average surged 2.9% to 47,909.92 points, marking its best daily performance in a year. The NASDAQ Composite climbed 2.8% to 22,635.0 points, with technology shares recovering further from the steep losses seen in March.

Semiconductor stocks led the rally, with the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index jumping more than 6% as shares of Micron Technology Inc (NASDAQ:MU), NVIDIA Corporation (NASDAQ:NVDA), and Intel Corporation (NASDAQ:INTC) advanced. The sector also received a boost after memory chip giant Samsung Electronics Co Ltd (USOTC:SSNHZ) projected strong first-quarter earnings.

Beyond the developments in the Iran conflict, investors also reviewed the minutes from the Federal Reserve’s March policy meeting, released Wednesday. The document showed policymakers increasingly concerned about rising oil prices and the potential impact on inflation and interest rates in the months ahead.

U.S. equity futures indicate a strong start for markets on Wednesday, with major indexes expected to open significantly higher as investors react to geopolitical developments in the Middle East.

Sentiment has improved after reports that the United States, Israel and Iran have agreed to a two-week ceasefire, a move that is likely to spark buying interest when trading begins.

In a post on Truth Social late Tuesday, President Donald Trump said he would halt bombing and military attacks against Iran for two weeks, provided Tehran agrees to the full, immediate and safe reopening of the Strait of Hormuz.

Trump also said Washington had received a 10-point proposal from Iran that he believes represents a “workable basis on which to negotiate,” adding that the two-week pause could provide enough time to finalize and implement a broader agreement.

Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi later signaled that Tehran would reopen the Strait of Hormuz for the same two-week period if attacks against Iran are stopped.

The development triggered a sharp drop in oil prices, with U.S. crude futures plunging more than 17 percent and falling well below the $100-per-barrel level.

“The positive market reaction is understandable as a two-week ceasefire raises hope for a complete end to the conflict,” said Dan Coatsworth, head of markets at AJ Bell.

“The ceasefire gives the world a moment to breathe and take stock of events,” he added. “Unfortunately, there is no guarantee that everything will return to normal.”

Stocks had begun Tuesday’s session under pressure but recovered through the afternoon, with the main indexes rebounding from their intraday lows before ending the day with mixed results.

The Nasdaq added 21.51 points, or 0.1 percent, to close at 22,017.85, while the S&P 500 edged up 5.02 points, or 0.1 percent, to 6,616.85. The narrower Dow Jones Industrial Average slipped 85.42 points, or 0.2 percent, finishing at 46,584.46.

Equities strengthened late in the session after Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif called on President Donald Trump to extend the deadline for Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz by two weeks in order to “allow diplomacy to run its course.”

In a message posted on X, Sharif also urged Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz for the same period as a “goodwill gesture.”

“We also urge all warring parties to observe a ceasefire everywhere for two weeks to allow diplomacy to achieve conclusive termination of war, in the interest of long-term peace and stability in the region,” Sharif said.

While the responses from Trump and Iran to Sharif’s proposal remain unclear, the statement helped calm investor fears about a further escalation after the president’s latest warnings.

Trump had previously threatened to strike Iran’s power plants and bridges if Tehran did not reach an agreement and reopen the Strait of Hormuz by 8 p.m. ET.

Escalating his rhetoric, Trump wrote in a Truth Social post, “A whole civilization will die tonight, never to be brought back again. I don’t want that to happen, but it probably will.”

The president also suggested that a “different, smarter, and less radicalized” leadership is now governing Iran and hinted that a dramatic change could occur.

“WHO KNOWS?” Trump wrote, adding to market uncertainty. “We will find out tonight, one of the most important moments in the long and complex history of the World.”

Among sectors, networking stocks posted strong gains during Tuesday’s session, pushing the NYSE Arca Networking Index up 2.4 percent to a record closing level.

Oil service companies also performed well, with the Philadelphia Oil Service Index rising 1.7 percent.

Transportation and semiconductor stocks also saw notable strength, while housing and telecom shares were among the day’s weaker performers.

Futures tracking the major U.S. stock benchmarks surged after the United States and Iran agreed to a temporary ceasefire in their conflict that has stretched beyond a month. Tehran’s commitment to allow safe tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz helped calm concerns about disruptions to global energy supply, pushing crude prices sharply lower. Gold rebounded as the U.S. dollar weakened, while Shell (NYSE:SHEL) trimmed its first-quarter gas production outlook and warned that the conflict continues to cloud the market outlook.

Futures jump

U.S. equity futures rallied strongly early Wednesday as investors reacted positively to the ceasefire agreement, which reduced the risk of a broader and economically damaging war in the Middle East.

At 03:19 ET, Dow futures had climbed 1,076 points, or 2.3%. S&P 500 futures rose 168 points, or 2.5%, and Nasdaq 100 futures advanced 799 points, or 3.3%.

In the previous session, Wall Street’s main indices had traded cautiously as investors awaited a U.S. deadline for Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz or face possible military strikes. On Tuesday, President Donald Trump warned that the United States would wipe out Iran’s “civilization” if his demands were ignored, a remark that triggered debate over whether it was rhetorical pressure or a serious warning.

An agreement mediated by Pakistan was eventually reached at the last minute, a development that markets welcomed. Global equities rallied and oil prices dropped, while U.S. Treasuries gained as investors revived expectations that the Federal Reserve could still cut interest rates later this year. Earlier, many rate-cut bets had faded due to fears that a war-driven energy shock could fuel inflation.

Analysts at Vital Knowledge wrote that companies that had benefited from the conflict — including energy producers, commodity chemicals firms and defense contractors — “will probably suffer aggressive profit taking” now that tensions have eased. Meanwhile, consumer discretionary stocks “should see the biggest rally.”

Attention shifts to ceasefire details

Trump said on social media that the deal followed discussions with Pakistani leaders, who have recently acted as intermediaries between Washington and Tehran. After Islamabad urged him to reconsider the Tuesday 8 p.m. ET deadline, Trump agreed to halt planned strikes against Iran for two weeks.

Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said Tehran would “cease their defensive operation” and permit “safe passage” through the Strait of Hormuz, provided maritime traffic is coordinated with the Iranian military. Pakistan’s Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif has invited U.S. and Iranian representatives to Islamabad for talks scheduled for Friday.

Israel, which launched a joint offensive against Iran alongside the United States in late February, supported the decision, according to a statement from the office of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. However, the statement did not mention Lebanon, where the Iran-backed group Hezbollah has been targeted by Israeli forces.

Even with the ceasefire, analysts at BCA Research cautioned that “[a] near-term reprieve in the Iran conflict will not erase medium-term and strategic tensions.”

Oil falls back below $100

Crude prices slid sharply after the ceasefire announcement, dropping below the $100-per-barrel threshold but remaining well above levels seen before the conflict erupted.

By 03:44 ET, Brent crude — the global benchmark — had fallen more than 13% to $94.85 per barrel. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude dropped 14.8% to $96.23 per barrel.

Before hostilities began in late February, Brent had been trading near $70 per barrel. After the conflict erupted, prices surged to roughly $120 at one stage, sparking fears that higher energy costs could stoke inflation and slow global economic growth.

One of the central drivers of the spike was the Strait of Hormuz, the narrow shipping lane along Iran’s southern coast that carries about one-fifth of the world’s oil supply. Tehran effectively blocked the route, severely disrupting energy shipments worldwide.

Asian economies — which depend heavily on oil shipments through the strait — were especially exposed. Meanwhile, strikes on energy facilities in Persian Gulf countries also disrupted natural gas flows to Europe. Although the United States exports more oil than it imports, American consumers still saw higher gasoline prices as global crude costs surged.

Analysts at ING said markets will now watch closely whether tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz begins to normalize.

“[A] significant pick-up in volume would weigh further on oil prices and reverse the stagflationary investment trends witnessed in markets over the last month,” they wrote.

Gold rebounds as dollar weakens

Gold prices climbed to their highest level in nearly three weeks as markets reassessed geopolitical risk following the ceasefire news.

Spot gold rose 2.4% to $4,818.63 an ounce by 03:57 ET (07:57 GMT), after earlier reaching its strongest level since March 19. U.S. gold futures for June delivery advanced 3.4% to $4,843.57 per ounce.

Despite its reputation as a safe-haven asset, gold struggled for much of the conflict. The surge in oil prices intensified inflation worries and boosted expectations that the Federal Reserve might keep borrowing costs higher for longer — typically a negative factor for non-yielding assets such as gold.

Instead, investors initially favored the U.S. dollar, which made gold more expensive for buyers using other currencies. But with hopes growing that tensions in the Middle East may ease, the dollar weakened on Wednesday, with an index tracking the currency against a basket of peers falling by more than 1%.

Shell trims gas outlook, cites uncertainty

Even as markets respond to the ceasefire, analysts warn that the economic effects of the conflict could linger for months.

Oil major Shell (NYSE:SHEL) provided one example on Wednesday, cutting its forecast for first-quarter gas production and warning that short-term liquidity may take a hit — even though profits from oil trading are expected to increase.

In its quarterly trading update, the company said working capital — a measure of short-term liquidity — is now expected to fluctuate between minus $10 billion and minus $15 billion, largely due to sharp swings in crude prices affecting inventories.

Shell added that its financial outlook remains “subject to increased uncertainty” because of the evolving situation in the Middle East. Shares of the London-listed company fell by more than 6%.