Category: Market Summary

U.S. stock futures moved modestly lower on Monday as investors assessed renewed trade policy uncertainty following the Supreme Court’s rejection of President Donald Trump’s emergency tariffs, while attention turned toward upcoming earnings from AI heavyweight Nvidia later this week.

As of 05:50 ET, Dow Jones futures were down 110 points, or 0.2%, S&P 500 futures declined 16 points, or 0.2%, and Nasdaq 100 futures fell 100 points, or 0.4%.

Wall Street’s main indices finished last week higher, supported by optimism after the court ruling and relief that geopolitical tensions had not escalated into U.S. military action against Iran.

Trump raises tariffs to 15% following court decision

Over the weekend, Trump announced plans to increase a temporary universal import tariff to 15%, up from an initially proposed 10%, shortly after the Supreme Court ruled that he had exceeded his authority by invoking emergency powers to impose sweeping trade duties.

The president labeled the decision a “disgrace” and quickly turned to provisions under the 1974 Trade Act to introduce global tariffs of 15% for up to 150 days, aiming to address what he described as “international payment problems.”

“The Supreme Court’s decision to strike down President Trump’s use of IEEPA tariffs removes one legal channel but does not signal the end of the tariff regime,” said Lale Akoner, global market analyst at eToro. “In our view, markets were already pricing in a restructuring of trade policy, specifically the removal of IEEPA tariffs and a shift toward a more formalised 15% framework. This ruling accelerates that transition rather than derailing it.”

“The near-term risk is uncertainty: shifting legal foundations could dampen activity temporarily. However, if the outcome is a more predictable tariff structure, equities may ultimately benefit.”

Reports indicated that several countries which had reached trade agreements with Washington over the past year are now seeking clarification or renegotiation in light of the latest policy changes.

The European Commission — the executive arm of the European Union and chief trade negotiator for its 27 member states — urged the United States to respect the terms of a 2025 agreement and requested “full clarity” on how tariff policy will evolve after the ruling.

Against this backdrop, investors are also watching remarks expected Monday from Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller.

Waller, scheduled to speak in Washington on the economic outlook, was among two policymakers who opposed the Federal Reserve’s January decision to keep interest rates unchanged within a 3.5% to 3.75% range.

Durable goods orders and factory orders data are also due later in the session.

Nvidia earnings take center stage

Market focus this week is increasingly shifting toward results from artificial intelligence leader Nvidia (NASDAQ:NVDA), widely viewed as a bellwether for global AI demand.

The chipmaker, whose processors power much of today’s AI infrastructure, is set to release fiscal fourth-quarter earnings on Wednesday. Investing.com forecasts expect earnings per share of $1.52 on revenue of $65.56 billion.

That compares with EPS of $0.89 and revenue of $39.33 billion reported a year earlier.

The earnings arrive amid growing debate about the sustainability of the AI boom and its broader impact on technology markets. Software and logistics stocks have recently come under pressure due to concerns about AI-driven disruption, with weakness spreading across multiple sectors.

Oil retreats after last week’s rally

Oil prices declined on Monday, giving back part of last week’s strong gains as traders evaluated prospects for a third round of nuclear negotiations between the United States and Iran alongside ongoing uncertainty tied to U.S. trade policy.

Brent crude futures fell 0.7% to $70.83 per barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures dropped 0.7% to $66.05 per barrel.

Both benchmarks had surged nearly 6% last week amid fears of a potential U.S.-Iran conflict and an unexpected drawdown in U.S. crude inventories.

Washington and Tehran are now expected to hold a third round of nuclear talks on Thursday in Geneva, raising hopes that diplomacy could reduce the risk of disruptions to Middle Eastern oil supplies.

Iran remains a major producer within the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and holds some of the world’s largest proven crude reserves.

U.S. stock futures moved modestly lower on Monday as investors continued to assess the implications of the Supreme Court’s decision to overturn President Donald Trump’s emergency tariff measures. In response, Trump announced plans for temporary global tariffs of 15%, adding fresh uncertainty to the outlook for international trade and financial markets.

Futures point to softer open

Equity futures suggested a weaker start to trading as markets digested the administration’s latest tariff response following last week’s court ruling.

As of 03:08 ET, Dow Jones futures were down 224 points, or 0.5%, S&P 500 futures had fallen 40 points, or 0.6%, and Nasdaq 100 futures declined 185 points, or 0.7%.

Wall Street’s major indices had closed the previous week higher after the Supreme Court ruled that the administration’s use of a 1977 emergency powers law did not authorize sweeping tariffs. Even so, uncertainty remains over the broader consequences of the decision, including whether companies affected by the duties may be entitled to refunds.

ING analysts said, “Friday’s Supreme Court ruling sent a strong signal about the limits of presidential power.”

They added that the ruling is unlikely to deter Trump’s broader trade agenda, leaving markets unsure about the next steps.

“Uncertainty is back,” they noted.

Trump proposes temporary global tariffs

Trump, who described the ruling as a “disgrace,” moved quickly to invoke provisions of the 1974 Trade Act to introduce global tariffs of 15% for up to 150 days, aimed at addressing what he called “international payment problems.”

An earlier White House statement had suggested tariffs would initially be set at 10%, but the rate was raised over the weekend.

Congress — whose constitutional authority over trade played a central role in the court’s decision — could extend the so-called Section 122 tariffs for an additional 150 days. Analysts at ING noted that Trump could also allow the tariffs to expire, declare a new emergency, and restart the process, potentially creating a “de facto perpetual tariff instrument.”

Meanwhile, U.S. Customs and Border Protection said it will stop collecting tariffs invalidated by the ruling starting at 12:01 a.m. EST (05:01 GMT) on Tuesday, though it has not clarified whether importers will receive refunds.

Trading partners seek answers

Major U.S. trading partners are now evaluating how the ruling may affect recently negotiated trade agreements.

The European Commission called on Washington to respect a 2025 agreement and requested “full clarity” on future tariff policy. In a statement, it warned the current environment is “not conducive to delivering ‘fair, balanced, and mutually beneficial’” transatlantic trade and investment, adding, “A deal is a deal.”

China said it is conducting a “full assessment” of the decision and urged the United States to abandon “unilateral tariff measures.”

“Cooperation between China and the United States is beneficial to both sides, but fighting is harmful,” China’s Commerce Ministry said.

Waller remarks in focus

Investors will also be watching comments from Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller, who is scheduled to speak in Washington about the economic outlook.

Waller was among the policymakers who dissented from the Fed’s January decision to keep interest rates unchanged at 3.5%–3.75%, arguing that borrowing costs should be reduced amid concerns about potential weakening in the labor market.

Markets continue to expect rate cuts later this year, though timing remains uncertain. Any remarks from Waller on inflation, employment trends, or the economic impact of tariffs could draw close attention.

Oil prices retreat

Oil prices fell sharply, giving back part of last week’s rally as investors weighed renewed trade uncertainty alongside the prospect of further U.S.–Iran nuclear negotiations.

Brent crude futures dropped 1.3% to $70.39 per barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude fell 1.4% to $65.55 per barrel.

Both benchmarks had gained nearly 6% last week amid concerns about a possible U.S.–Iran conflict and an unexpected decline in U.S. crude inventories.

A third round of nuclear talks between Washington and Tehran is expected Thursday in Geneva, raising hopes that a diplomatic breakthrough could reduce the risk of disruptions to global oil supplies. Iran remains a key producer within OPEC and holds some of the world’s largest proven crude reserves.

U.S. equity futures are pointing to a weaker open on Friday, signaling that stocks could extend Thursday’s modest pullback.

The cautious tone follows fresh economic data releases, including the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation measure, which came in slightly hotter than expected.

Figures from the Commerce Department showed that the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index rose 0.4% in December, compared with a 0.2% gain in November. Economists had forecast a 0.3% increase.

On an annual basis, the headline PCE index climbed 2.9%, up from 2.8% the previous month. Markets had anticipated the yearly rate would remain steady.

Stripping out food and energy, core PCE also advanced 0.4% in December after rising 0.2% in November, exceeding expectations for a 0.3% gain. The annual core reading accelerated to 3.0% from 2.8%, topping the projected 2.9%.

In separate data, the Commerce Department reported that U.S. economic growth cooled more sharply than anticipated in the fourth quarter of 2025.

Gross domestic product expanded at a 1.4% annualized pace in the final quarter of the year, down from 4.4% growth in the third quarter. Economists had expected a slowdown to 2.8%.

The report noted that gains in consumer spending and private investment were partly offset by declines in government expenditures and exports.

On Thursday, stocks broadly moved lower, giving back part of the previous session’s rally. While losses were moderate, all three major indexes closed in negative territory.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 267.50 points, or 0.5%, to 49,395.16. The Nasdaq Composite declined 70.91 points, or 0.3%, to 22,682.73, and the S&P 500 shed 19.42 points, or 0.3%, to 6,861.89.

Weakness was partly driven by Walmart (NYSE:WMT), which dropped 1.4% after issuing a softer-than-expected earnings outlook for the year, despite beating fourth-quarter estimates.

Oil prices also remained elevated amid heightened tensions between the U.S. and Iran, contributing to investor caution.

Market participants appeared hesitant to take bold positions ahead of the inflation release, which could influence the Federal Reserve’s rate trajectory.

Minutes from the Fed’s most recent policy meeting indicated that several officials believe further rate cuts may not be appropriate until there is stronger evidence that inflation is sustainably returning to target.

Sector moves on Thursday were uneven. Airline stocks came under heavy pressure, with the NYSE Arca Airline Index plunging 4.4%.

Housing-related shares also declined, as the Philadelphia Housing Sector Index fell 1.3%.

In contrast, computer hardware stocks outperformed, lifting the NYSE Arca Computer Hardware Index by 3.3%.

Oil services companies also advanced, supported by higher crude prices tied to geopolitical risks in the Middle East.

U.S. equity futures traded higher early Friday as investors prepared for pivotal readings on inflation and economic growth. At the same time, anxiety intensified around the private credit space following an announcement from Blue Owl Capital (NYSE:OWL), while crude prices steadied amid ongoing geopolitical strains between Washington and Tehran.

Futures Move Higher

As of 03:09 ET, Dow Jones futures were up 54 points, or 0.1%. S&P 500 futures gained 14 points, or 0.2%, and Nasdaq 100 futures climbed 57 points, also 0.2%.

Wall Street’s major benchmarks had closed lower in the previous session, pressured by concerns over Middle East tensions and a series of earnings releases that analysts at Vital Knowledge labeled as “underwhelming.” Retail heavyweight Walmart (NYSE:WMT) warned that inflation in general merchandise had accelerated sharply due to sweeping U.S. tariffs and issued cautious guidance for the current year, pushing its stock lower.

Shares of Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) also declined, weighing on the broader S&P 500.

On the monetary policy front, Federal Reserve Governor Stephen Miran appeared to soften his previously dovish stance on interest rates. His remarks followed the release of minutes from the Fed’s January meeting, which indicated that several policymakers had cautioned about the possibility of rate hikes in the months ahead. According to Vital Knowledge, this reinforces the view that borrowing costs may be “heading further away” from President Donald Trump’s preference for swift and aggressive rate cuts. The analysts added that such divergence increases the likelihood of friction between the White House and the Federal Reserve.

Private Credit Under Pressure

Market attention on Thursday centered on the private credit industry after Blue Owl Capital announced changes to its redemption framework. Investors will no longer be able to withdraw a fixed amount of capital each quarter.

Instead, the firm will determine on a quarterly basis how much capital it returns to investors.

Blue Owl’s shares fell in response, as did those of peers including Ares (NASDAQ:ARCC) and Blackstone (NYSE:BX). The reaction highlighted rising unease about potential weaknesses in the largely opaque private credit market, which has extended trillions of dollars in loans to companies over recent years.

Concerns are also mounting over lenders’ exposure to software companies, a segment that has faced pressure as investors assess potential disruptions stemming from the rapid development of new artificial intelligence models.

In a post on social media, former PIMCO CEO Mohamed El-Erian questioned whether Blue Owl’s revised redemption terms represent a “canary-in-the-coalmine” moment, drawing parallels with early warning signs seen before the global financial crisis nearly two decades ago.

“There’s plenty to think about here, starting with the risks of an investing phenomenon in advanced (not developing) markets that has gone too far overall (short answer: yes), to the approaches being taken by specific firms (lots of differences, yet subject to the “market for lemons” risk),” El-Erian wrote.

Oil Holds Firm

Oil prices stabilized and remained on course for their first weekly gain in three weeks, as escalating U.S.–Iran tensions heightened concerns about potential supply disruptions in the Middle East.

Brent crude futures were trading broadly unchanged at $71.66 per barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures slipped 0.1% to $66.35 per barrel.

Both benchmarks hovered near their highest levels since early August and were set to post weekly gains of more than 6%.

Geopolitical risks intensified after Trump warned on Thursday that “really bad things” would happen if Iran failed to reach a nuclear agreement within 10 to 15 days, raising the possibility of military action.

Any escalation involving Iran — a major OPEC producer — could disrupt flows through the Strait of Hormuz, a critical transit route for roughly one-fifth of global oil shipments.

PCE Data Ahead

Investors are closely watching Friday’s economic releases, with particular focus on the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index.

The core PCE gauge, closely monitored by the Federal Reserve, is expected to rise 0.3% month over month in December, compared with 0.2% in November. On a year-over-year basis, it is forecast at 3.0%, up from 2.8%, according to estimates from the Bureau of Economic Analysis.

Data released last week showed that headline consumer price inflation rose more slowly than anticipated in January, strengthening expectations that the Fed could bring forward the timing of its next rate cut to as early as June. However, a stronger-than-expected labor market report earlier this week had tempered those bets, suggesting the central bank — which reduced rates multiple times in 2025 — may hold off on further easing until the second half of the year.

U.S. GDP Estimate Due

Meanwhile, an advance estimate of fourth-quarter U.S. economic growth is expected to show a moderation in momentum during the October–December period.

Economists forecast that the U.S. economy expanded at an annualized rate of 2.8% in the final three months of 2025, slowing from 4.4% in the third quarter.

In the prior quarter, consumer spending — long the backbone of U.S. economic activity — continued to play a central role in driving growth. A narrowing trade deficit, partly linked to President Trump’s broad tariff measures, also contributed to the expansion.

Although the headline figures appear solid, many Wall Street observers argue that the economy has developed a “K” shape. Higher-income households and large corporations have shouldered much of the growth, while lower-income Americans continue to grapple with elevated prices and a subdued hiring environment. Smaller businesses, meanwhile, face rising import costs and tighter labor supply conditions due to ongoing immigration restrictions.

U.S. stock futures are signaling a softer open on Thursday, suggesting markets may retreat after posting solid gains in the previous session.

Investor sentiment has been dampened by Walmart (NYSE:WMT). Although the retailer exceeded fourth-quarter earnings expectations, its profit forecast for the year ahead came in below analysts’ projections, prompting a cautious response from the market.

Rising oil prices are also contributing to the negative tone, as crude continues to climb amid escalating tensions between the United States and Iran and fears of potential military escalation.

That said, futures trimmed some losses following new data from the Labor Department showing that initial jobless claims fell more than anticipated in the week ended February 14.

On Wednesday, stocks surged early in the session before paring gains later in the day. Even after retreating from intraday highs, the major indices still finished comfortably in positive territory.

The Nasdaq advanced 175.25 points, or 0.8%, to 22,753.63. The S&P 500 rose 38.09 points, or 0.6%, to 6,881.31, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 129.47 points, or 0.3%, to 49,662.66.

Early momentum was largely driven by Nvidia (NASDAQ:NVDA), which rallied after announcing a multi-year strategic partnership with Meta (NASDAQ:META) spanning AI infrastructure, cloud systems and on-site computing platforms.

The company said the agreement will enable widespread deployment of its CPUs and millions of Blackwell and Rubin GPUs.

Although Nvidia shares climbed as much as 2.9% during the session, they later eased but still closed up 1.6%.

Micron (NASDAQ:MU) also posted strong gains, rising 5.3% after reports that David Tepper’s Appaloosa Management increased its stake in the semiconductor company by 200%.

Encouraging economic data also supported markets. A Federal Reserve report showed industrial output in January rose more than economists had expected.

However, enthusiasm faded somewhat after the release of minutes from the Fed’s January meeting, which underscored divisions among policymakers regarding the direction of interest rates.

The minutes from the January 27–28 meeting indicated that several participants believed further rate cuts would likely be appropriate if inflation continues to ease in line with projections.

Others suggested it may be suitable to keep rates unchanged for “some time” while assessing additional economic data.

The Fed also noted that a number of policymakers judged that further easing may not be warranted until there is clear evidence that the disinflation process is firmly reestablished.

Additionally, some officials supported a two-sided characterization of the rate outlook, reflecting the possibility that rate hikes could be considered if inflation remains above target.

Sector performance reflected moves in commodity markets. Oil service companies outperformed as crude prices surged, lifting the Philadelphia Oil Service Index by 2.7%.

Gold-related stocks also advanced amid a sharp rise in bullion prices, pushing the NYSE Arca Gold Bugs Index up 2.5%.

Energy producers, financials and transportation stocks also posted gains, while rate-sensitive sectors such as utilities and commercial real estate lagged behind.