Blog

Bitcoin (COIN:BTCUSD) extended its decline on Tuesday, falling under $109,000 as the weekend rebound lost steam and enthusiasm around the so-called “Uptober” rally continued to wane. The retreat came even as broader risk sentiment improved on easing U.S.–China trade tensions and political developments in Asia.

By 09:26 ET (13:26 GMT), Bitcoin was down 2.3% at $108,820, leading losses across major digital assets and underperforming traditional markets.

Optimism over “Uptober” fades

Bitcoin’s attempt to hold above $110,000 has faltered since the early-October flash crash that erased roughly $500 billion in total crypto market value. That sudden plunge has kept traders cautious, limiting buying activity in an already volatile environment.

Seasonal optimism tied to “Uptober,” which refers to October’s historically strong performance for cryptocurrencies, has faded quickly. Bitcoin is now down over 2% for the month, with little sign of renewed momentum.

“So far this year, Uptober hasn’t gone to plan for Bitcoin bulls. Instead of seasonal strength, the price action has remained subdued with an early rally fizzling midway through the month, delivering an ugly reversal that may not be over yet,” FOREX.com analysts wrote.

They added that Bitcoin has broken away from its usual correlation with risk assets such as equities, which have hit record highs in recent weeks. According to their note, Bitcoin was “lagging badly in an environment where so many high-beta markets are ripping higher.”

On Tuesday, that divergence was clear. Asian equities surged — Japan’s markets hit record levels on optimism surrounding Sanae Takaichi’s progress toward becoming prime minister — while Chinese stocks climbed on conciliatory comments from U.S. officials over trade. Crypto markets, however, moved sharply lower.

Coinbase makes strategic $375M acquisition

Coinbase (NASDAQ:COIN) announced plans to buy Echo, an investment platform for token sales, in a cash-and-stock deal valued at roughly $375 million.

Echo develops tools for public and private token offerings aimed at making capital raising more accessible. “We want to create more accessible, efficient, and transparent capital markets,” Coinbase said in a blog post.

Initially, Coinbase will use Echo’s Sonar platform to facilitate crypto token offerings before expanding into tokenized securities and real-world assets. Founded by Jordan “Cobie” Fish, Echo has helped blockchain projects raise over $200 million.

The deal reflects a surge in M&A activity in the digital asset space this year, supported by a more favorable U.S. regulatory environment.

Altcoins follow Bitcoin lower

Altcoins broadly mirrored Bitcoin’s losses. Ether dropped 3.5% to $3,881.71, failing to hold above $4,000. XRP slipped 1.1% to $2.42 despite news that Evernorth — backed by Ripple Labs — will go public on Nasdaq through a SPAC merger, raising more than $1 billion to acquire XRP.

Among other major tokens, BNB fell 3.1%, Cardano declined 2.4%, and Solana lost 3%. Memecoins also came under pressure, with Dogecoin and TRUMP both down more than 2%.

China has released its GDP data for the third quarter, showing year-on-year growth of 4.8%. Compared to the U.S. or Canada, the figure seems impressive. However, if we analyze the trend over recent quarters, the picture is less optimistic: growth was 5.4% in the first quarter, 5.2% in the second, and has now fallen again. 

Even so, the CSI 300 has not reacted much: has it become as resilient as the S&P 500?

Not exactly. First, the slowdown was expected. Second, analysts had predicted something worse, around 4.7%. A rebound in industrial production and stronger exports, driven by increased shipments to Southeast Asia and Africa, helped soften the blow, although it is unclear how long that support will last.

As for the key takeaway for investors, the data suggests that China’s economy remains on track. When combined, the figures from January to September show a 5.2% year-on-year growth — meaning the government’s annual target of around 5% still looks well within reach. And that’s the double-edged sword.

On the one hand, it’s cheering that the trade war with the US doesn’t affect China that much yet. On the other hand, stronger-than-expected data could delay the introduction of new stimulus measures — something markets have been waiting for quite a while, and which has been a key factor supporting the CSI 300 index.

So, will the government announce new support measures?

There is still a chance. Although GDP has not disappointed too much, domestic demand remains weak and lags behind overall GDP growth, even though it was supposed to be the main driver of the economy this year. Then there is the troubled real estate sector: house prices fell in September at their fastest rate in 11 months. 

And fixed-asset investment hasn’t been particularly encouraging either. All in all, there seem to be more factors in favor of a new stimulus package than against it. Perhaps some clues will emerge at the upcoming plenary session of the CPC, where Beijing is expected to outline the main lines of its next five-year plan.

U.S. stock index futures were little changed early Tuesday, suggesting a flat open on Wall Street as investors appear ready to take a breather after the market’s strong two-session rebound.

The major indexes have climbed back to within striking distance of their all-time highs, supported by upbeat earnings and optimism around monetary policy. However, uncertainty tied to U.S.–China trade tensions and the prolonged government shutdown is keeping traders cautious.

The absence of fresh U.S. economic data, largely due to the shutdown, may also contribute to the quiet tone ahead of Friday’s release of key inflation figures. That data will be closely watched for signals about the path of interest rates before the Federal Reserve’s policy meeting next week.

According to CME Group’s FedWatch Tool, markets are pricing in a 97.8% chance of a quarter-point rate cut next week and a 95.5% probability of another cut in December.

On the corporate front, General Motors (NYSE:GM) surged in premarket trading after reporting stronger-than-expected third-quarter results and raising its full-year profit guidance. Coca-Cola (NYSE:KO) also gained after delivering a beat on both revenue and earnings. In contrast, Northrop Grumman Corporation (NYSE:NOC) may come under pressure despite topping earnings estimates, as its quarterly revenue fell short of forecasts.

The upbeat sentiment follows Monday’s strong session, when the S&P 500 climbed 71.12 points, or 1.1%, to 6,735.13; the Dow Jones Industrial Average jumped 515.97 points, or 1.1%, to 46,706.58; and the Nasdaq Composite surged 310.57 points, or 1.4%, to 22,990.53.

Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) was a standout mover, climbing 3.9% to a new record close after Loop Capital upgraded the stock to “Buy” on strong demand for the iPhone 17 series.

Market optimism was also lifted by remarks from National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett, who said he expects the government shutdown to end this week. Speaking on CNBC’s “Squawk Box,” Hassett noted he anticipates moderate Democrats will “cross the aisle” to help pass a funding bill.

Meanwhile, The Wall Street Journal reported that President Donald Trump’s administration is quietly easing tariff rules by granting exemptions on dozens of products and signaling more carve-outs during trade negotiations.

Sector-wise, steel stocks outperformed, with the NYSE Arca Steel Index rallying 3.5%. Cleveland-Cliffs (NYSE:CLF) soared 21.5% after revealing plans to explore entering the rare earth mining sector.

Gold miners also posted strong gains as bullion prices rebounded, driving the NYSE Arca Gold BUGS Index up 3%. Airline, banking, oil services, and semiconductor shares also advanced, contributing to broad-based strength across the market.

European equity markets opened slightly firmer on Tuesday, with investors closely watching a wave of corporate earnings while also monitoring the latest developments in U.S.–China trade relations.

In the U.K., fresh data from the Office for National Statistics showed that the budget deficit widened in September as government spending increased. Public sector net borrowing rose to £20.2 billion from £18.6 billion a year earlier, marking the highest September figure since 2020.

Across the region, the CAC 40 gained 0.5%, the FTSE 100 added 0.3%, and the DAX in Germany rose 0.1%.

Among corporate movers, Edenred (EU:EDEN) jumped after the vouchers and benefits card provider posted third-quarter revenue that topped forecasts. SEGRO (LSE:SGRO) also advanced strongly after reporting solid quarterly results, supported by improved occupier sentiment and an uptick in pre-letting activity.

Banking heavyweight HSBC Holdings (LSE:HSBA) traded higher as it named former NatWest executive David Lindberg as CEO of its U.K. business.

On the downside, Getlink (EU:GET) slipped after delivering flat third-quarter revenue, while BHP (LSE:BHP) fell after the miner reported a 2% decline in fiscal Q1 iron ore production.

Eurofins Scientific (EU:ERF) also came under pressure after its BioPharma segment posted just 0.4% organic revenue growth in the third quarter. Meanwhile, Tele2 (BIT:1TEL) retreated after reporting weaker-than-expected quarterly sales.

Playtech (LSE:PTEC) saw its stock plunge more than 30% on Tuesday after Evolution AB announced it had expanded an ongoing lawsuit to include the gaming software group as a defendant.

According to Evolution, legal discovery revealed that Playtech allegedly commissioned a short report in 2021 that later became central to a protracted legal dispute.

The New Jersey Superior Court ultimately deemed the report “not truthful,” Evolution said in a statement. Regulators in New Jersey and Pennsylvania later closed their investigations into the matter without taking any corrective action.

As part of the latest development, Evolution has officially added Playtech as a defendant in the case. The company also noted that it expects the litigation process to extend through 2026.

Getlink (EU:GET) reported largely stable third-quarter revenue on Tuesday, broadly matching market expectations, and reiterated its EBITDA guidance for the 2025 financial year.

Group revenue for the quarter came in at €472 million, narrowly missing the consensus estimate of €473 million. The slight shortfall was mainly due to marginally softer pricing trends in both Railway Network and Shuttle Services.

Eurostar passenger traffic rose 7.1% year over year to 3,194,000, surpassing forecasts of 3,184,000. This supported Railway Network revenue of €108 million, just below the €110 million analysts had expected. Shuttle Services revenue reached €242 million, reflecting a 1.1% year-on-year price increase, slightly under the anticipated 1.2%.

In total, Eurotunnel divisional revenue amounted to €364 million, compared with a consensus of €365 million. Europorte delivered €42 million, in line with forecasts.

ElecLink, the group’s electricity transmission arm, generated €66 million in quarterly revenue — down 13% from the previous year but consistent with projections. As of the end of September, ElecLink had secured €217 million in annual revenue, representing 97% of capacity utilization, up from €205 million and 92% in June. Looking ahead to 2026, €176 million in revenue has already been locked in, covering 59% of capacity, compared to 46% earlier in the year, according to Jefferies.

The company reaffirmed its 2025 EBITDA guidance in the range of €780 million to €830 million, assuming an exchange rate of £1 = €1.184.

Analysts at Kepler Cheuvreux highlighted that Shuttle volumes remain below pre-pandemic levels, while Eurostar has bounced back more quickly thanks to a healthier passenger mix. However, regulated pricing continues to limit full inflation pass-through.

Getlink currently trades at a next-twelve-month free cash flow yield of 5.1% and a dividend yield of 4.2%, compared with its three-year averages of around 7.2% and 3.9%, respectively, Jefferies noted.

Kepler Cheuvreux pointed out that the company’s performance is closely tied to Shuttle and Eurostar traffic trends as well as the electricity price spread between France and the UK. The firm also emphasized that Getlink is ready for the new European Entry/Exit System border controls, which are not expected to have any immediate impact on results.

The contribution from ElecLink has normalized compared with last year. Ongoing competition from ferries is being partly offset by anti-dumping regulations in France and the UK, as well as EU environmental regulations.

Kepler Cheuvreux cautioned that moderate dividend growth may prove less appealing in an environment of elevated bond yields. It identified several key risks to the outlook: significant fluctuations in Shuttle and Eurostar traffic, material shifts in the France–UK power price differential, and potential volatility in the bond market.

Atos (EU:ATO) reported a significant revenue drop in the third quarter as its sweeping restructuring plan — dubbed “Genesis” — continues to reshape the business.

Revenue came in at €1.98 billion, representing a 10.5% organic decline. The company nonetheless reaffirmed its 2025 profitability and cash flow objectives, signaling confidence in its ongoing turnaround. Shares, however, fell more than 9% in premarket trading on Tuesday.

Net cash outflow for the period was €38 million, achieved without resorting to receivables factoring or other short-term cash measures. This figure included €87 million in restructuring charges as the company pressed ahead with cost-cutting initiatives.

The Atos Strategic Business Unit (SBU) generated €1.62 billion in revenue — down 19% organically — reflecting its continued withdrawal from low-margin contracts and softer market conditions. By contrast, the Eviden SBU surged 77% organically to €356 million, supported by approximately €200 million from the Jupiter contract.

The book-to-bill ratio remained at 66%, unchanged year on year, with improving cross-selling and renewal activity. Atos also pointed to “signs of recovery” in North America and in Germany, Austria, and Central Europe.

Chief Executive Philippe Salle stated: “We continued to execute on our strategy and transformation plan. Business fundamentals are being restored. Our cost base is under control with further restructuring and savings achieved over the summer.”

Atos reiterated its expectation to hit full-year profitability and cash generation targets, projecting a return to organic growth and positive cash flow in 2026 as its sales pipeline strengthens and cost optimizations deepen. The group now forecasts full-year 2025 revenue above €8 billion, factoring in around €200 million of foreign exchange headwinds.

Analysts at Kepler Cheuvreux noted that “revenues are therefore unlikely to return to positive in Q4,” as the Jupiter contract weighed on Q3 results. They expect that impact to ease as new deals ramp up and year-over-year comparisons become more favorable.

The company has revised its constant-currency revenue target downward by roughly €300 million from the €8.5 billion previously guided after Q2. Still, Kepler highlighted that “operating profit is however expected to be around €340 million,” roughly 7% above its prior estimates.

The brokerage added that the “return to an operating margin over 4% confirms the very heavy work that the group is doing on costs,” noting that Atos maintained its operating profit goal despite the lower revenue outlook.

“We keep our Reduce rating on the back of soft momentum in revenues. We also consider 2028 targets to be too optimistic,” it concluded.

Gold’s historic price surge could be nearing its breaking point, according to John Higgins, Chief Markets Economist at Capital Economics. Higgins cautioned that the precious metal has climbed well beyond its “fair” value, showing classic signs of a market bubble.

He noted that gold’s rise has not only exceeded inflation trends but also diverged from its long-term relationship with other real assets. “At the start of 2025, the price of gold was already close to its prior peak in real terms, which it had reached in 1980,” he wrote in a note. “But now, the real price of gold is nearly 60% higher than that peak, and more than three times its average since 1980.”

While gold is traditionally viewed as a safe store of value, Higgins argued that the recent rally can’t be explained by typical drivers like falling real yields or persistently high inflation. “Since gold pays no interest, the opportunity cost of holding it declines when the yields of such bonds fall. But those yields have generally been rising,” he said, pointing out that the once-strong link between Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) yields and gold prices has “broken down in recent years.”

He also rejected inflation as the main explanation for the boom, highlighting that “Inflation has been trending down since its post-pandemic peak, even if it remains higher than the Fed would like.”

Instead, Higgins believes speculative behavior is likely playing a key role in pushing prices higher. Potential drivers, he said, include “reserve managers diversifying out of the dollar,” increased ETF buying, “growing demand from China,” and “the simple fear of missing out.”

Still, not all of these forces are short-term. “Some of these factors may be ‘structural’ and therefore continue to underpin the price of gold,” he said. “But it also looks increasingly possible that gold is in a bubble that will burst before long.”

Gold’s climb to record levels has been supported by geopolitical uncertainty, central bank accumulation, and strong retail investor interest. But Higgins’ assessment suggests that the market’s momentum may have outpaced fundamental realities, raising the risk of a sharp reversal.

Spot gold prices fell 1.8% today, down $77 to $4,283 per ounce as of 09:38 GMT.

U.S. stock futures slipped slightly on Tuesday as investors prepared for a heavy day of corporate earnings that could offer fresh signals on both company fundamentals and the broader economic outlook. Streaming giant Netflix (NASDAQ:NFLX) headlines the list of companies set to report results after the close.

Shares of Zions Bancorporation (NASDAQ:ZION) moved higher in post-market trading after executives downplayed concerns surrounding a $50 million loan loss, calling it an isolated event. Meanwhile, Amazon.com, Inc. (NASDAQ:AMZN) announced its cloud platform is back online after a major outage, and Sanae Takaichi is on course to become Japan’s first female prime minister after securing a key parliamentary vote.

Futures edge lower as investors await earnings flood

U.S. stock futures drifted lower ahead of the opening bell. By 03:16 ET, Dow futures were down 86 points (0.2%), S&P 500 futures slipped 9 points (0.1%), and Nasdaq 100 futures lost 42 points (0.2%).

Wall Street’s major averages had closed higher on Monday, buoyed by gains in technology and financial shares, upbeat earnings, and easing concerns over U.S. regional bank balance sheets. Shares of Apple Inc. (NASDAQ:AAPL) reached a new record high following a series of optimistic reports about strong iPhone 17 demand.

Optimism also surrounded the upcoming trade discussions between Donald Trump and Xi Jinping in South Korea later this month. A White House official suggested the prolonged U.S. government shutdown “could be coming as soon as this week.”

Netflix to report after the bell

The pace of earnings season ramps up this week, with Netflix among the most closely watched companies reporting results.

Shares of Netflix have gained more than 39% year-to-date, reflecting strong investor confidence as the streaming platform leans into its advertising business. Investors will also look for any commentary on the controversy sparked by Elon Musk, who urged users to cancel their subscriptions.

Other major companies reporting Tuesday include GE Aerospace (NYSE:GE), The Coca-Cola Company (NYSE:KO), Philip Morris International (NYSE:PM), and RTX Corporation (NYSE:RTX).

Zions Bancorp reassures after loan loss

Zions Bancorp (NASDAQ:ZION) shares ticked higher in extended trading after the bank reported stronger third-quarter earnings supported by growth in net interest income.

This comes despite the company’s disclosure of a $50 million loss on two commercial and industrial loans from its California division. The news, combined with similar disclosures from Western Alliance and Jefferies, triggered a selloff in regional bank stocks last week.

However, Zions Chief Credit Officer Derek Steward told analysts the company was “confident this was an isolated incident in our portfolio.” Net interest income rose to $672 million from $620 million a year earlier.

Amazon says AWS outage resolved

Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN) said operations at its Amazon Web Services unit have returned to normal following Monday’s outage, which caused widespread disruption to hundreds of websites.

The company added that message backlogs would still take a few hours to process. The incident, caused by a regional gateway issue on the U.S. East Coast, impacted several platforms including Perplexity, Coinbase (NASDAQ:COIN) and Robinhood Markets, Inc. (NASDAQ:HOOD).

Takaichi to make history as Japan’s first female prime minister

Sanae Takaichi, leader of Japan’s Liberal Democratic Party, won a key lower house vote on Tuesday, clearing the way to become the country’s first female prime minister later in the day.

The 64-year-old secured 237 votes, more than the required majority in the 465-seat lower house. Although she did not win an outright majority in the upper house, the outcome is expected to confirm her appointment as Japan’s 104th prime minister.

Takaichi will replace Shigeru Ishiba, who resigned in September after poor election results. She is known for her fiscally dovish stance and is expected to ramp up spending on infrastructure, industrial development, and defense as Japan contends with slowing consumption, persistent inflation, and tariff-related headwinds from the U.S.

Gold prices retreated from historic peaks in Asian trading on Tuesday, weighed down by profit-taking and improving sentiment around U.S.–China trade relations, which softened demand for the metal’s traditional safe-haven role.

Spot gold slipped 0.8% to $4,322.95 an ounce by 02:27 ET (06:27 GMT), pulling back from Monday’s record high of $4,381.21/oz as investors booked gains after a week-long rally. U.S. gold futures for December delivery also eased 0.5% to $4,339.35/oz.

Trade optimism tempers safe-haven demand

The move lower followed remarks from Donald Trump, who adopted a more conciliatory stance on trade, saying he expected a “strong and fair” deal with China and looked forward to constructive talks with Xi Jinping during a summit in South Korea next week.

In a further sign of thawing tensions, U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent is set to meet Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng in Malaysia later this week. This comes after renewed strains in relations, with Trump threatening to impose additional 100% tariffs on Chinese goods starting November 1.

White House economic adviser Kevin Hassett also added to the improved sentiment by stating on Monday that the prolonged U.S. government shutdown was “likely to end this week,” as negotiators closed in on a bipartisan funding deal.

The easing of political and trade uncertainty has reduced the immediate appeal of defensive assets such as gold.

Focus shifts to U.S. inflation data

Investors are now awaiting the delayed U.S. Consumer Price Index data, scheduled for release on Friday. Economists expect headline inflation to rise around 3.1% year-on-year. A hotter reading could dampen expectations of a potential rate cut at the Federal Reserve’s October meeting.

Despite the pullback, gold remains supported by expectations of imminent Fed policy easing, Trump’s tariff threats, and ongoing central bank buying, which continue to underpin longer-term demand.

Stronger dollar pressures broader metals

The strength of the United States dollar added to the downward pressure on precious and industrial metals, making them more expensive for overseas buyers.

Silver futures fell 1.5% to $50.68 an ounce, while platinum futures dropped 1.1% to $1,633.60/oz. Benchmark copper on the London Metal Exchange edged down 0.2% to $10,666.20 a ton, while U.S. copper futures declined 1% to $5.00 a pound.