Blog

Shares of Goodwin PLC (LSE:GDWN) fell sharply, dropping 45.8% after the company revealed it had lost two major contracts worth more than £60 million in total within its Mechanical Engineering Division.

The engineering group said its subsidiary Easat was unsuccessful in a bid to supply 20 coastal radar antenna and transceiver systems for installations off Estonia, a project valued at roughly €18 million.

In addition, Goodwin International failed to secure a contract with Sellafield worth more than £45 million. The company said the outcome was unexpected, noting it had submitted what it described as a strong technical proposal and continues to deliver Self Shielded Boxes and 63 Element Racks in compliance with requirements.

At the end of February, Goodwin reported a firm fixed orderbook of £288 million. While overall trading performance remains broadly in line with the company’s October 2025 update, the loss of the contracts represents a setback for the Mechanical Engineering Division.

Within the Refractory Engineering Division, market conditions remain largely unchanged. The company said persistently high gold and silver prices are continuing to dampen sentiment in jewellery casting markets, while weaker consumer confidence is also affecting spending patterns.

Goodwin noted that none of its valve orders linked to LNG projects in the Middle East or the United States have been cancelled or paused in production. However, some large Middle East customers have asked for shipment delays due to the current geopolitical situation in the Gulf, which could shift the timing of related revenue.

The company is moving forward with plans to expand its foundry facility to accommodate a new automated moulding line, pending final planning approval.

Regarding its Duvelco high-technology products, Goodwin said no commercial sales have been recorded so far, although ongoing engagement with the market is expected to result in initial revenue contributions in the financial year ending 2027.

The Board is also reviewing a potential return to its previous dividend policy, which capped distributions at 38% of post-tax profit plus depreciation and amortisation, or lower, citing heightened geopolitical uncertainty worldwide.

Oil prices advanced on Monday after Iran’s Revolutionary Guards warned they could strike Israel’s power plants and energy infrastructure supplying U.S. bases across the Middle East if Iran’s electricity facilities come under attack.

As of 07:31 GMT, Brent crude futures were up $1.57 at $113.76 per barrel. U.S. West Texas Intermediate rose $3.09, or 3.15%, to $101.32 per barrel. Both benchmarks experienced volatile trading during early Asian hours, briefly slipping by $1 after initially gaining around $1.

The surge in WTI also helped narrow its discount to Brent, which had widened to its largest level in 13 years last week.

“Oil sentiment may lurch on threats and rhetoric in the near term, but its more durable direction will continue to be shaped by the state of Middle East oil flows,” said Vandana Hari, founder of oil market analysis firm Vanda Insights.

On Saturday, U.S. President Donald Trump warned that Washington could “obliterate” Iran’s power plants if Tehran does not fully reopen the Strait of Hormuz within 48 hours. The threat came less than a day after Trump suggested the war — now in its fourth week — could be “winding down.”

“It clearly means more escalation, which means higher oil prices. Some are incorrectly thinking, however, that Iran may cave,” said Amrita Sen, founder of Energy Aspects.

“Trump is trying to show he can out-escalate and that way ends in scorched earth for Gulf infrastructure.”

According to Fatih Birol, executive director of the International Energy Agency, the Middle East crisis represents a “very severe” shock to global energy markets and could surpass the scale of the oil crises of the 1970s combined.

The conflict has already damaged key energy facilities in the Gulf and has nearly stopped shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, a vital chokepoint that handles roughly 20% of global oil and liquefied natural gas flows.

Russia said Monday it opposes any attempt to block the Strait of Hormuz but added that the issue must be considered within the wider global context, according to comments from the Russian Foreign Ministry reported by Interfax.

Analysts estimate that between 7 million and 10 million barrels per day of Middle Eastern oil production could be at risk as the conflict continues.

Iraq has declared force majeure across all oilfields operated by foreign companies, according to three energy officials.

Production at Basra Oil Company has been reduced to 900,000 barrels per day from 3.3 million barrels per day, Iraqi Oil Minister Hayan Abdel-Ghani said in a statement issued by the ministry.

Meanwhile, traders say Indian refiners are preparing to resume purchases of Iranian crude, while refiners in other parts of Asia are also evaluating similar steps.

Gold prices have dropped sharply as escalating tensions in the Middle East heighten concerns about inflation and reinforce expectations that central banks could raise interest rates.

Earlier today, spot gold fell to $4,234 per ounce, representing a decline of roughly 5%, while gold futures dropped 7% to $4,267 per ounce.

The traditional safe-haven metal has been under significant pressure in recent days. Prices sank more than 10% last week — marking the steepest weekly decline since February 1983 — and gold has now fallen more than 20% from the record high of $5,594.82 reached on January 29.

Other precious metals also moved sharply lower this morning. Spot silver slid 9% to $62.7 per ounce, while spot platinum dropped 7% to $1,787.

Over the weekend, U.S. President Donald Trump issued Iran a two-day ultimatum to reopen the Strait of Hormuz or risk strikes targeting its power plants.

Iran responded that it would “completely” shut the strategic waterway and target its energy, IT and desalination infrastructure if its power facilities were attacked.

Tensions surrounding the Strait of Hormuz continue to support oil prices. West Texas Intermediate crude traded at $100.64 per barrel (+2.6%), while Brent crude rose to $113.71 (+1.35%).

“The scale of the gold price collapse is not unprecedented, but the pace of the sell-off has been much faster than on many other historical occasions,” said Wayne Gordon, a financial advisor in the wealth management division of UBS Group AG.

David Wilson, director of commodity strategy at BNP Paribas SA, said the metal’s reaction to the current macroeconomic shock resembles patterns seen in previous crises. “If you look at the three previous economic shock cycles (in 2008, 2020, and 2022), gold initially fell as markets reacted to the news, with investors typically selling assets to hold U.S. dollars,” he said, noting that each of those periods was later followed by a sustained rally.

Since the conflict began, surging energy prices have pushed investors to anticipate potential rate hikes from the Federal Reserve and other major central banks, including the European Central Bank. This has created headwinds for gold, which has just experienced its steepest weekly drop in more than forty years.

While rising inflation typically boosts gold’s appeal as a safe-haven asset, higher interest rates tend to weigh on the metal because it does not generate yield.

“Despite the escalation of the war with Iran, gold prices have declined since the start of the conflict, highlighting how macroeconomic factors, particularly interest rates, the US dollar, and multi-asset positioning, continue to dominate near-term price dynamics,” Ewa Manthey, commodities strategist at ING, said in a note. She added: “This pattern is consistent with previous shock episodes, where liquidity needs tend to prevail over safe-haven demand in the initial stages.”

Manthey also noted that geopolitical developments on their own rarely drive gold prices over the long term. “More generally, geopolitics alone rarely impacts gold prices in a sustained manner,” she said. “What matters is how such shocks impact inflation, monetary policy, and the dollar. In the short term, a stronger U.S. dollar and gold’s high liquidity can make it a source of financing during times of stress.”

Johan Jooste, CEO of Pangaea Wealth AG, argued that the recent decline reflects investors’ need for liquidity. “Gold has a liquidity problem,” he said. “The rapid sell-off was driven by investors’ need for liquidity, and if the war were to continue to escalate, the precious metal would further increase its downside risk,” Jooste concluded.

Futures tied to the main U.S. stock indexes traded lower on Monday as the conflict with Iran continues, fueling concerns that global energy prices could remain elevated for an extended period. U.S. President Donald Trump has given Iran until Monday night to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, a demand that Tehran has rejected. At the same time, the International Energy Agency warned the conflict could trigger a “very severe” oil crisis, while the U.S. dollar strengthened and gold prices moved lower.

Futures slip

U.S. equity futures declined early Monday as the war involving Iran entered its fourth week.

By 04:04 ET, Dow futures had fallen 305 points (0.7%), S&P 500 futures were down 55 points (0.8%), and Nasdaq 100 futures had dropped 227 points (0.9%).

Global equity markets also came under renewed selling pressure, particularly across Asia, where many economies rely heavily on energy imports from the Persian Gulf. Europe’s Stoxx 600 — closely watched in a region that also depends on Gulf natural gas shipments — also moved lower.

On Friday, Wall Street’s major indexes ended the session in negative territory as investors worried that a prolonged U.S.-Israeli campaign against Iran could deepen an already growing shock in energy prices.

Brent crude, the global oil benchmark, ended last week just above $112 per barrel — far above the roughly $70 per barrel level seen before the conflict erupted in late February.

The surge in oil prices has already produced ripple effects. U.S. gasoline prices have jumped nearly 32% to $3.94 per gallon since the conflict began, according to the New York Times, citing data from the AAA motor club. Diesel prices have also risen, increasing the risk of broader inflation pressures — an issue that reportedly caught the attention of Federal Reserve policymakers last week.

The Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged at 3.5% to 3.75%, while expectations for rate cuts later this year have weakened. Some market participants have even begun speculating that a sustained spike in energy prices could push the central bank to consider raising rates again.

Trump issues ultimatum to Iran

Investors have been closely watching developments in the Middle East, including an ultimatum from President Trump directed at Tehran.

Trump warned that the U.S. could target critical Iranian energy facilities if Iran does not reopen the Strait of Hormuz — a narrow shipping route that has become a key flashpoint in the conflict — by Monday night. Around 20% of global oil supply flows through the strait, but tanker traffic has largely halted amid fears that Iran could attack ships it views as connected to hostile countries.

Iran rejected the warning, saying the strait would remain “completely closed” if any of its energy infrastructure were attacked.

Signals from Washington have also appeared mixed. While Trump said the U.S. could “obliterate” key Iranian power sites, he has also suggested the military operation could soon be “winding down.” Media reports indicate the White House has begun considering what a potential ceasefire framework with Tehran might look like.

Despite continued strikes on Tehran and Israel declaring that its campaign against Iran-backed militants in Lebanon is only beginning, Trump “seems to be steering toward an exit ramp” while facing growing domestic criticism over the war and its economic fallout, analysts at Vital Knowledge said.

IEA warns of “very severe” oil crisis

Even so, the crisis in the Middle East represents a “very severe” shock to global oil markets, according to International Energy Agency Executive Director Fatih Birol, who said the disruption could surpass the scale of past crises in the 1970s.

Speaking at an event in Australia, Birol said the IEA is in discussions with governments in Europe and Asia about possibly releasing additional oil reserves to offset supply disruptions caused by the blockage of the Strait of Hormuz.

“If it is necessary, of course, we will do it. We look at the conditions, we will analyze, assess the markets and discuss with our member countries,” he said.

Earlier this month, IEA member nations agreed to release a record 400 million barrels from strategic reserves — about 20% of total stockpiles.

However, Birol stressed — echoing the view of many analysts — that only a full reopening of the Strait of Hormuz will restore stability to energy markets.

Oil prices continued climbing Monday, with Brent futures rising 1.7% to $114.07 per barrel.

Dollar strengthens

The U.S. dollar gained as investors sought the currency as a relative safe haven amid the ongoing geopolitical tensions.

By 04:40 ET (08:40 GMT), the U.S. dollar index, which measures the greenback against a basket of major currencies, had increased 0.1% to 99.75.

Over the past month the index has climbed more than 2%, although it posted its first weekly decline since the conflict began on Friday.

Elsewhere, the Australian dollar — often viewed as a gauge of global risk appetite — weakened. The Japanese yen also declined, prompting Japan’s top currency official to warn that authorities are ready to intervene if volatility becomes excessive.

“Risk sentiment is deteriorating at the start of this week as the U.S. and Iran appear far from peace discussions,” analysts at ING said.

Gold falls

Analysts at ING, including Francesco Pesole and Chris Turner, also noted that precious metals were trending lower, arguing that current market conditions “heavily favors” the dollar.

Gold prices dropped sharply on Monday as concerns about persistent inflation and elevated interest rates dampened demand for the metal as a safe haven. The decline effectively wiped out most of gold’s gains recorded earlier this year.

Investors are increasingly worried that higher energy costs could fuel another rise in global inflation, potentially forcing central banks to keep interest rates elevated for longer.

Because gold does not generate yield, it tends to struggle in high-interest-rate environments.

“The market is trading less on geopolitical hedging flows and more on fears that stickier inflation could prompt a more hawkish central bank stance,” analysts at OCBC said.

UK recruitment company RTC Group (LSE:RTC) reported a modest decline in revenue for 2025 but managed to hold operating profit and EBITDA steady, supported by tighter cost management and stronger demand for contract and temporary staffing.

For the full year, the company generated revenue of £95.54 million, alongside EBIT of £2.60 million and EBITDA of £3.30 million. Gross profit reached £17.88 million, while profit before tax came in at £2.49 million.

During the year, RTC Group returned £1.6 million to shareholders through dividends and share buybacks, and the board has proposed an increase to the final dividend.

Trading performance was helped by a greater emphasis on contract and temporary placements, which compensated for weaker permanent recruitment activity within the UK business. At the same time, the company faced rising cost pressures due to higher employment-related expenses, including increases in national insurance contributions and the minimum wage.

Revenue in the International division declined following the completion of a charter flight contract and the conclusion of several other projects.

Looking ahead, RTC said trading in 2026 has begun strongly, particularly within its infrastructure-focused operations. However, management cautioned that rising employment costs and potential regulatory changes could continue to create uncertainty.

Over the longer term, the company believes it is well positioned to benefit from the UK’s planned £700 billion investment in infrastructure, which is expected to support sustained demand for skilled labour.