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B.P. Marsh & Partners (LSE:BPM) reported an increase in net asset value (NAV) for the six months ended 31 July 2026, alongside a record dividend payment and continued investment activity across its financial services portfolio.

The specialist private equity investor reported NAV of £372.2 million at the period end and a total shareholder return of 7.0%. The group paid £13 million in dividends during the half year, its highest reported distribution.

B.P. Marsh generated £30.8 million from equity disposals and loan repayments, reflecting its strategy of recycling capital from existing investments into new opportunities.

During the period, the company invested £9.8 million in new and follow-on equity positions and provided £18.1 million in portfolio lending.

The group ended July with £37.4 million in available liquidity and no outstanding debt, providing resources for further investment activity and shareholder distributions.

B.P. Marsh typically acquires minority interests of between 20% and 40% in early-stage and small to medium-sized financial services intermediaries, particularly insurance brokers, underwriting agencies and related businesses.

Its investment approach combines long-term equity ownership with portfolio lending and preferred-return arrangements, generating income alongside changes in the valuation of its holdings.

The company maintains investments across the UK, Europe, North America and other international markets, with a focus on financial services businesses.

Following its first-half performance, B.P. Marsh reiterated plans to distribute at least £28 million in dividends over three financial years, alongside a share buy-back programme.

For investors, the results highlight the group’s capital allocation activity, including proceeds from investment realisations, new deployments and shareholder distributions.

Future developments will include the timing and scale of further portfolio exits, changes in NAV and the implementation of the planned dividends and share buy-backs.

James Cropper (LSE:CRPR) has raised its full-year earnings outlook following a better-than-expected performance in the first half of its 2027 financial year, supported by revenue growth and cost management in its Paper & Packaging division.

The AIM-listed advanced materials and specialist paper manufacturer now expects adjusted earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation (EBITDA) for FY27 to exceed current market forecasts by approximately 10% to 20%.

The revised guidance implies full-year adjusted EBITDA of between £10.3 million and £11.3 million.

According to the company, the improved outlook primarily reflects revenue growth in its Paper & Packaging business, alongside cost controls and operational improvements.

The division produces specialist papers and moulded fibre packaging for customers requiring premium materials and recycled-fibre solutions.

James Cropper also operates an Advanced Materials division, supplying specialist nonwoven materials and electrochemical coatings for applications across aerospace, clean energy, defence and other industrial markets.

The group is headquartered in Burneside, Cumbria, with additional manufacturing facilities in the UK and United States.

The guidance upgrade indicates that management expects the first-half performance and operational improvements to contribute to earnings for the full financial year.

However, the company has not provided revised revenue guidance or separate earnings forecasts for its two operating divisions.

James Cropper is scheduled to publish its interim results in November 2026, when further details of first-half trading and financial performance are expected.

For investors, the principal development is the increase in expected adjusted EBITDA relative to existing market forecasts. The forthcoming interim results will provide additional information on divisional performance, margins and the factors supporting the revised full-year outlook.

US inflation rose at an annual rate of 3.7% in September and 0.65% month over month. Producer inflation, which measures changes in the prices of goods used as inputs in the production process, reached 6.3% year over year and 1.3% month over month. 

The main driver was energy prices, up 9.3% monthly and 35.3% annually, accounting for over half of the monthly increase in consumer prices. 

Core inflation, excluding food and energy, came in at 2.6% year over year and 0.3% month over month, with persistent services inflation at 3.2% annually and goods prices facing additional pressure from Trump’s tariffs and rising electronics costs amid the AI boom.

No wonder the probability of a December rate hike rose to 75%. One would expect Treasury yields to rise and the S&P 500 index to fall, but while stocks did pull back, bond prices went up instead. Why? 

It was a risk-off move rather than expectations of a more dovish monetary policy path in 2027, as a sell-off in semiconductor stocks, concerns over China’s CXMT advancing in high-density DRAM development, and fresh worries about CoreWeave prompted investors to seek safe-haven assets. 

What is next?

Meta’s quarterly results could set the tone: strong numbers could fuel a rebound if investors see AI spending translating into real returns, with stronger orders, solid margins and sustainable cash flow; otherwise, the tech sell-off could deepen, driving investors toward Treasuries and pushing yields lower. 

Beyond that, inflation is still running hot, energy prices remain high, and the labor market is holding up, giving the Fed little reason to turn dovish anytime soon. If anything, yields may be more likely to move higher again, especially if tensions in the Middle East escalate and push energy prices up further.

US equity futures moved higher on Monday, suggesting that Wall Street could recover some of the losses recorded at the end of the previous week, as technology stocks attracted renewed interest and crude oil prices declined.

Nasdaq 100 futures rose 1.3% ahead of the opening bell, following a session in which technology shares accounted for a substantial portion of the broader market’s losses.

The expected recovery followed Friday’s decline, which pushed the Nasdaq Composite to its lowest closing level in a month.

Market participants were reassessing technology shares after recent selling linked to concerns about borrowing to finance artificial intelligence infrastructure and the potential returns from those investments.

A retreat in crude oil futures also provided a different backdrop for trading after prices had increased over several sessions.

The decline followed an executive order signed by President Donald Trump waiving key provisions of newly introduced sanctions against Russia. Trump said the decision was justified by US national interests.

Oil markets had previously responded to renewed Iranian attacks in the Strait of Hormuz and indications that a reported energy ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine was no longer holding.

US crude oil futures had risen above $100 a barrel for the first time in a month before retreating on Monday.

Technology Sector Losses Push Nasdaq to One-Month Low

US stocks ended Friday’s session lower, reversing the predominantly positive finish recorded on Thursday.

The Nasdaq Composite declined 572.99 points, or 2.1%, to 26,140.03, while the S&P 500 fell 84.62 points, or 1.1%, to 7,659.44.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average recorded a smaller decline, losing 175.28 points, or 0.3%, to close at 52,002.41.

Over the full trading week, the Nasdaq dropped 4.5% and the S&P 500 declined 2%. The Dow gained 0.7%, reflecting differences in performance between the major indices.

Technology shares were particularly affected by concerns surrounding capital expenditure on artificial intelligence infrastructure, including the use of debt to finance development.

Computer hardware stocks recorded some of the largest losses, with the NYSE Arca Computer Hardware Index falling 5.4% to its lowest closing level in two months.

Shares in semiconductor manufacturers, networking equipment providers and software companies also declined.

The losses across these industries contributed to the Nasdaq’s weekly decline and provided the context for Monday’s anticipated recovery.

Oil Price Movements Affect Airlines and Energy Stocks

The increase in crude oil prices during the previous week affected several sectors of the US equity market.

Airline shares declined as investors assessed the potential effect of higher fuel prices on operating costs.

The NYSE Arca Airline Index fell 3.2% on Friday.

Brokerage and biotechnology stocks also moved lower, while energy shares advanced alongside crude oil futures.

Oil prices had risen amid uncertainty surrounding international supply routes and geopolitical developments.

Renewed attacks by Iran in the Strait of Hormuz, an important passage for global energy shipments, added to concerns about potential supply disruptions.

Uncertainty surrounding a reported energy ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine also contributed to fluctuations in crude prices.

Monday’s decline in oil futures followed the US decision to waive certain sanctions provisions affecting Russia.

The change in energy prices was among the factors influencing equity futures before the start of regular trading.

Federal Reserve Reports 0.7% Increase in Industrial Production

Investors also considered US economic data showing that industrial production increased more than expected in September.

According to the Federal Reserve, industrial output rose 0.7% during the month, compared with economists’ forecasts for a 0.4% increase.

The August reading was revised to a gain of 0.1%, replacing the previously reported unchanged figure.

The September increase therefore represented an acceleration from the previous month’s revised growth rate.

Industrial production provides an indication of activity across manufacturing, mining and utilities and is one of the measures used to assess economic conditions.

The figures added to the information available to investors as they evaluated the outlook for US growth and monetary policy.

Investors Monitor Technology Shares and Energy Markets

Monday’s higher index futures suggested a possible change in direction following the previous week’s losses, particularly among technology companies.

Nasdaq 100 futures were up 1.3%, while lower crude oil prices provided a contrast to the energy market conditions that had affected equities on Friday.

The previous session’s losses had left the Nasdaq down 4.5% for the week, compared with a 2% decline in the S&P 500 and a 0.7% gain in the Dow.

The Federal Reserve’s industrial production figures also showed faster-than-expected growth in September.

Investors continued to monitor technology sector valuations, energy prices and geopolitical developments ahead of the opening of regular US trading.

Oil prices declined on Monday after US President Donald Trump announced exemptions from sanctions and proposed tariffs affecting Russian energy transactions, prompting investors to reassess the outlook for international crude supplies.

Brent futures fell 2.06% to $107.60 per barrel at 02:00 ET (06:00 GMT), while US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) futures declined 1.6% to $99.80 per barrel.

The losses followed an increase of almost 5% in crude prices during the previous week, when disruptions to oil shipments from the Middle East had supported the market.

Although economic data from China indicated stronger-than-expected growth and increased refinery activity, the figures provided limited support to oil prices during Monday’s trading.

US Suspends Russian Sanctions Ahead of Implementation

Trump issued an executive order on Friday evening suspending numerous sanctions against Russia shortly before they were due to take effect.

The administration also waived proposed tariffs on countries purchasing Russian oil.

The president said the decision was in the national interest of the United States.

The announcement followed an agreement signed the previous week for US imports of Russian diesel.

Trump had also attributed rising global fuel prices partly to Ukrainian attacks on Russian energy facilities.

In a subsequent social media post, the president said he was pursuing negotiations aimed at ending the conflict between Russia and Ukraine and did not want measures that would “drive… Russia away from the bargaining table.”

Trump also renewed his criticism of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky.

Ukraine indicated late last week that it intended to continue attacks on Russian infrastructure and expressed dissatisfaction with additional agreements between Washington and Moscow.

Political Response Reflects Disagreement Over Energy Policy

The sanctions waiver prompted criticism from European officials and members of both the Republican and Democratic parties in the United States.

The decision comes as the Trump administration faces elevated domestic fuel prices ahead of the US midterm elections.

Higher petrol and diesel costs have increased household and business expenditure, making energy prices an economic and political consideration.

Critics of the administration have argued that US military operations against Iran contributed significantly to the disruption of global oil supplies.

The conflict has affected shipping through the Middle East, particularly routes associated with the Strait of Hormuz.

The suspension of restrictions on Russian energy transactions has therefore raised questions about how additional crude availability could affect international prices while regional supply disruptions continue.

ANZ Identifies Refined Fuel Distribution as a Market Constraint

Analysts at ANZ said the ability to transport and distribute refined petroleum products had become an increasingly important consideration for global oil demand.

“The key question is no longer whether the global economy can generate fuel demand, but whether the global supply chain can efficiently deliver refined products to end-users,” the analysts wrote.

The bank noted that global oil consumption had remained relatively resilient despite substantial price increases in recent months.

According to ANZ, constraints affecting the transportation and delivery of refined products may be limiting consumption independently of underlying economic growth.

“The largest upside risk to oil demand in 2027 is therefore not necessarily stronger GDP growth but the easing of constraints that are currently suppressing consumption,” the analysts added.

The assessment suggests that improvements in distribution capacity could influence future demand even without a corresponding increase in the rate of global economic expansion.

Tehran Reiterates Proposal to Reopen Strait of Hormuz

Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi said on Sunday that Tehran’s proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz within seven days remained available to Washington.

“The way to reopening the Strait of Hormuz is obvious,” Araqchi told Iranian media, criticising the United States for not accepting the offer.

The closure of the waterway has disrupted approximately 20% of global oil supplies.

Asian importing countries have been particularly affected because of their reliance on shipments passing through the strait.

Shipping volumes briefly improved in September before renewed attacks on vessels disrupted traffic again.

The Strait of Hormuz remains a major transportation route for crude oil and petroleum products exported from the Middle East.

Its reopening would be relevant to the availability and delivery of energy supplies, although the timing and conditions of any agreement remain uncertain.

Middle East Security Risks Continue to Affect Oil Transportation

Additional tensions in the region have contributed to uncertainty surrounding oil exports.

Saudi Arabia and Yemen’s Iran-backed Houthi movement have continued to clash, adding to concerns about energy infrastructure and maritime security.

Shipping data indicated that oil flows from the Persian Gulf improved during the second week of October.

However, the recovery remained vulnerable to further disruption.

Market participants are monitoring vessel movements and security developments to assess whether improvements in regional exports can continue.

Chinese Growth and Refinery Activity Provide Demand Indicators

China’s latest economic figures offered some support to expectations for global oil consumption.

The world’s largest crude importer reported third-quarter economic growth that exceeded market forecasts.

Separate data showed that Chinese refinery throughput increased for a third consecutive month in September.

The increase was driven mainly by higher exports of refined petroleum products.

The figures indicate continued activity in China’s refining industry, although the positive demand signals were insufficient to offset the effects of changing international supply expectations on Monday.

Crude Markets Remain Focused on Sanctions and Shipping Conditions

Oil futures moved lower as the market considered the possibility of additional Russian crude remaining available to international buyers.

Brent traded at $107.60 per barrel and WTI at $99.80, reversing part of the previous week’s increases.

The US sanctions decision has altered expectations for Russian energy exports, while continuing disruptions around the Strait of Hormuz remain an important supply consideration.

Future developments in diplomatic negotiations, regional security and the movement of oil shipments will continue to influence the outlook for crude and refined petroleum markets.

Gold prices increased on Monday as financial markets reduced the probability of another Federal Reserve interest rate increase this month following remarks from Chair Kevin Warsh.

US gold futures moved above $4,200 per ounce, while spot bullion also advanced. The gains extended across other precious metals, including silver, platinum and palladium.

Investors were reassessing the outlook for monetary policy after stronger-than-expected US inflation data had previously raised expectations of further tightening.

Analysts at ANZ also maintained their longer-term forecast for gold prices to exceed $5,000 per ounce in 2027, citing investment demand, central-bank reserve diversification and concerns about government debt sustainability.

Gold and Other Precious Metals Advance

At 00:51 ET (04:51 GMT), spot gold was trading 0.4% higher at $4,180.29 per ounce.

US gold futures rose 0.5% to $4,200.92 per ounce.

The increases followed a 0.7% decline in bullion during the previous week.

Silver gained 1.3% to $57.7300 per ounce, while platinum increased by the same percentage to $1,655.53.

Spot palladium rose 1.5% to $1,132.74 per ounce.

The US Dollar Index was little changed, slipping 0.04% to 101.80.

The movements came as traders reconsidered the likelihood of further US interest rate increases and their potential implications for precious metals.

Probability of Fed Rate Increase Falls Below 20%

Market expectations shifted after Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh commented on the monetary policy outlook.

Traders subsequently reduced the implied probability of a 25-basis-point rate increase at the Fed’s next meeting to less than 20%.

His remarks were interpreted as supporting the possibility of keeping borrowing costs unchanged.

The change in expectations followed US inflation figures released the previous week that were higher than economists had anticipated.

Those figures had initially strengthened the case for further monetary tightening and contributed to gains in the dollar.

Warsh’s comments subsequently interrupted the currency’s advance.

Gold prices are sensitive to interest rate expectations because the metal does not provide an income stream. Higher yields on interest-bearing assets can therefore increase the opportunity cost of holding bullion.

Gold Remains Above $4,000 Following Earlier Market Decline

Despite recent volatility, gold has traded above $4,000 per ounce since August.

The metal previously experienced a decline that took prices into bear-market territory following the outbreak of the US-Iran conflict in late February.

According to the supplied market figures, bullion remains approximately one-fifth below its level at the beginning of that conflict.

Demand for assets traditionally used to diversify portfolios during periods of financial and geopolitical uncertainty has helped support prices.

However, elevated sovereign bond yields and a relatively firm US dollar continue to influence investment decisions.

The combination of these factors has contributed to fluctuations in gold prices as investors balance monetary policy expectations against demand for portfolio protection.

ANZ Sees Fiscal Concerns Influencing Gold Demand

Analysts at ANZ highlighted concerns about government borrowing and debt sustainability as factors affecting the longer-term outlook for gold.

The bank indicated that rising sovereign bond yields may increasingly reflect fiscal uncertainty rather than expectations of faster economic growth.

This distinction is relevant to investors assessing whether higher bond yields should reduce demand for bullion or encourage diversification into alternative assets.

ANZ suggested that gold could continue to attract investment as a hedge against risks associated with government debt and financial market conditions.

Nevertheless, the bank acknowledged that high yields and a stronger dollar could contribute to additional selling in the near term.

Its longer-term outlook remains dependent on the persistence of investment demand and broader macroeconomic developments.

Chinese Investment and Central-Bank Purchases Remain Relevant

ANZ also pointed to demand from Chinese investors and central banks as supporting factors for the gold market.

In China, weakness in domestic equity and property markets has contributed to continued interest in bullion as an investment asset.

Central banks have also been diversifying their reserve portfolios, seeking to reduce reliance on individual assets.

These developments provide potential sources of demand beyond short-term trading linked to US interest rate expectations.

The scale and continuity of such purchases will remain important considerations for the market’s longer-term outlook.

ANZ Maintains Forecast for Gold Above $5,000 in 2027

ANZ expects gold prices to encounter constraints on further gains in the near term, particularly if bond yields remain elevated or the dollar strengthens.

However, the bank forecasts a move above $5,000 per ounce during 2027.

Its projection reflects expectations for continued investment demand, central-bank purchases and interest in gold amid concerns about fiscal sustainability.

The forecast remains subject to changes in the Federal Reserve’s policy decisions, currency movements and global financial conditions.

For the immediate market outlook, attention is focused on the Fed’s next meeting after Warsh’s remarks prompted a reduction in expectations for another rate increase.

Monday’s trading left US gold futures above $4,200 per ounce, while spot prices stood at approximately $4,180.