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Investors are gearing up for a busy week as the September U.S. employment report looms, alongside the looming threat of a federal government shutdown. Key economic indicators, including the Institute for Supply Management’s (ISM) monthly data for the manufacturing and services sectors, are set to be released, while major companies such as Nike (NYSE:NKE) and Carnival Corp. (NYSE:CCL) will report their latest quarterly results.

Nonfarm Payrolls in Focus

All eyes are on Friday’s release of September’s nonfarm payrolls, which will provide insight into the current state of the U.S. labor market.

Federal Reserve officials have emphasized the importance of monitoring employment trends amid cooling job growth. When the Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points earlier this month, it signaled a priority on supporting the labor market over immediate inflation concerns.

Projections from Fed members suggest additional rate cuts could be possible before year-end. While lower rates can stimulate hiring and investment, they may also contribute to rising prices.

Economists expect September to add 51,000 jobs, up from 22,000 in August, with the unemployment rate holding steady at 4.3%. Observers caution that elevated inflation could influence how aggressively the Fed moves.

“A jobs number [less than] 75,000 will probably keep the Fed on track for a […] cut [at its next meeting on October 29], but something [greater than] 115K with the core PCE just below 3% could spur” Fed Chair Jerome Powell and his colleagues to skip a reduction at the gathering, analysts at Vital Knowledge said in a note.

Potential Government Shutdown

Concerns remain that a U.S. government shutdown could delay the jobs report. Lawmakers face a Tuesday deadline to approve a stopgap funding bill to prevent the federal government from entering its 15th partial shutdown since 1981.

Republicans control both chambers, but Democratic votes are needed to pass the bill. Democrats have so far rejected short-term measures, demanding that any proposal undo Republican cuts to healthcare programs.

Congressional leaders are scheduled to meet President Donald Trump at the White House on Monday. Over the weekend, Trump told Reuters he has “the impression” that Democrats may want to reach an agreement.

ISM Data Releases

The upcoming ISM reports on September’s manufacturing and services activity will proceed regardless of political developments.

The manufacturing PMI is projected at 49.1, slightly up from August’s 48.7, but still below the 50-point mark separating contraction from expansion. Services PMI is expected to hold at 52.0, keeping the sector—responsible for over two-thirds of U.S. GDP—within growth territory. Employment components of the ISM may be monitored, though historically they have been poor predictors of the nonfarm payrolls report.

Nike Earnings

Nike will release its quarterly report after the market closes on Tuesday. Investors will watch for progress in the brand’s ongoing turnaround under CEO Elliott Hill, who returned last October to address declining sales, market share loss, and strategic missteps that had strained relationships with retailers.

Fiscal first-quarter revenue is expected to decline in the mid-single digits, as Hill invests in Nike’s running and sneaker lines to boost demand.

CFO Matthew Friend previously warned in March that it would take “several quarters” to clear older inventory, possibly requiring discounting that could pressure margins. Nike also plans to reduce reliance on Chinese production to avoid broad U.S. tariffs.

Despite challenges, signs of recovery are emerging. JD Sports, a major Nike retailer in the UK, said last week that the U.S.-based company is doing “all the right things in terms of resetting” its operations.

Carnival Earnings

Carnival Corp. will be among the first to report on Monday. Investors are watching how the cruise operator has benefited from growing consumer interest in sea-based vacations amid economic uncertainty.

Rising demand has boosted Carnival’s margins to near 20-year highs in Q2. The Holland America and Princess Cruises operator raised its full-year profit outlook in June, noting that the business has shown “remarkable resilience amid heightened volatility.” Analysts also pointed out that favorable exchange rates have improved the second-half forecast.

Shares of Carnival, with third-quarter per-share earnings projected at $1.32 according to Bloomberg consensus estimates, have climbed over 22% this year.

This content is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or other professional advice. It should not be considered a recommendation to buy or sell any securities or financial instruments. All investments involve risk, including the potential loss of principal. Past performance is not indicative of future results. You should conduct your own research and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions.

The U.S. dollar weakened on Monday as investors weighed the risk of a federal government shutdown alongside a series of upcoming economic data releases.

By 05:35 ET (09:35 GMT), the U.S. dollar index, which measures the currency against a basket of its peers, was down 0.2% at 97.92.

Market focus is shifting toward the release of September’s nonfarm payrolls report on Friday, which could shed light on the health of the U.S. labor market.

Federal Reserve officials have emphasized supporting a cooling jobs market. When the central bank cut interest rates by 25 basis points earlier this month, policymakers indicated that addressing the slowing employment trend took priority over persistent inflationary pressures.

A survey of Fed rate projections shows many members expect further reductions before year-end. In principle, lower rates can stimulate hiring and investment, though they also carry the risk of increasing prices.

Economists forecast the U.S. added 51,000 jobs in September, compared with 22,000 in August. The unemployment rate is expected to remain at August’s 4.3%. Observers note that given high inflation, a robust employment report could lead the Fed to implement additional rate cuts at a more cautious pace.

Traders are currently pricing in roughly 40 basis points of Fed easing by the end of 2025, slightly below earlier expectations. This modest pullback helped support the dollar last week.

“A jobs number [less than] 75,000 will probably keep the Fed on track for a […] cut [at its next meeting on October 29], but something [greater than] 115K with the core PCE just below 3% could spur” Fed Chair Jerome Powell and colleagues to pause any reduction, analysts at Vital Knowledge noted.

Concerns remain that a potential U.S. government shutdown could delay the jobs report. Congress faces a looming deadline to pass a stopgap funding bill before the fiscal year ends on Tuesday, or the federal government could enter its 15th partial shutdown since 1981.

Republicans currently control both chambers of Congress, but support from some Democrats is required to pass the legislation. Democrats have rejected a short-term funding bill, demanding that any new bill undo recent Republican cuts to healthcare programs.

Leaders from both parties are scheduled to meet with President Donald Trump at the White House on Monday to discuss the issue. Speaking to Reuters over the weekend, Trump said he has “the impression” that Democrats may want to reach an agreement.

Elsewhere, analysts are monitoring a legal dispute over the potential removal of Fed Governor Lisa Cook by the Trump administration, raising further concerns about central bank independence.

This content is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or other professional advice. It should not be considered a recommendation to buy or sell any securities or financial instruments. All investments involve risk, including the potential loss of principal. Past performance is not indicative of future results. You should conduct your own research and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions.

Shares of CMC Markets Plc (LSE:CMCX) climbed more than 6% on Monday following news that the UK-based financial services firm will become Westpac’s preferred platform provider for its online share trading services. The deal will bring CMCX’s trading technology to a wider audience across both mobile and desktop platforms.

The full integration is anticipated to take around 12 months, with the majority of implementation costs capitalized and ongoing expenses described as incremental.

CMC Markets expects the partnership to significantly boost its Australian stockbroking operations, projecting service to roughly 40% more clients and an increase in domestic trading volumes of approximately 45% after integration. The company noted that the arrangement does not require regulatory or shareholder approval.

In its announcement, CMCX highlighted that the Westpac platform collaboration could deliver a “meaningful” revenue benefit to its Australian CMC Invest business. RBC Capital Markets estimated that Australian stockbroking contributed around 15% of CMCX’s net operating income in FY2025.

The integration will leverage existing technology and operational scale, with capitalized costs covering most of the setup and only incremental expenses expected to continue post-launch. CMC Markets holds the position of the second-largest stockbroking firm in Australia, largely due to client transitions from ANZ.

RBC Capital Markets noted that with major investments now behind it, FY25 results could provide a clearer view of the group’s profitability potential. The brokerage added that CMCX is currently trading at a CY26E price-to-earnings ratio of 10x, compared with the European diversified financials sector average of 15x.

The firm emphasized that it is “continually advancing its propositions to respond to industry developments” and highlighted the high-margin, debt-free, and capital-generative characteristics of its business. The Westpac deal, the company confirmed, is intended to expand service capacity and trading volumes, allowing CMCX to handle “circa 40% more customers with increased domestic volumes of approximately 45%.”

This content is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or other professional advice. It should not be considered a recommendation to buy or sell any securities or financial instruments. All investments involve risk, including the potential loss of principal. Past performance is not indicative of future results. You should conduct your own research and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions.

Travis Perkins (LSE:TPK) saw its shares rise in London trading after J.P. Morgan included the company on its Positive Catalyst Watch ahead of third-quarter results, which are scheduled for October 16.

Shares jumped over 3% following the announcement.

J.P. Morgan analyst Zaim Beekawa highlighted that Q3 is likely to continue reflecting the benefits of measures Travis Perkins has taken to recover lost market share in recent years. Beekawa also pointed to a favorable comparison base, noting that last year’s Oracle Financials rollout caused disruptions and dampened volumes.

“Overall, based on our recent conversation with the company, the actions taken by Travis Perkins and an easier comparative basis, we would expect the company to see growth in the quarter and we expect positive like-for-like (LFL) revenue trends driven solely by volumes,” Beekawa wrote.

The analyst expects 1.5% LFL growth in Merchanting and 2.2% in Toolstation. He added that the company entered the second half of the year with “momentum and optimism” after reporting slightly positive trading trends in July.

Investor interest has also been supported by the appointment of new CEO Gavin Slark, whose strategic vision is seen as a key milestone for the company.

J.P. Morgan maintains an Overweight rating on Travis Perkins with a 670p price target. The bank believes the company remains in the “very early innings of the recovery,” citing workforce re-engagement, stronger capital discipline, and targeted cost management. It also noted that a broader market recovery should provide additional earnings leverage when it occurs.

This content is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or other professional advice. It should not be considered a recommendation to buy or sell any securities or financial instruments. All investments involve risk, including the potential loss of principal. Past performance is not indicative of future results. You should conduct your own research and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions.

AstraZeneca (LSE:AZN) announced on Monday that it will switch to a direct listing of its shares on the New York Stock Exchange, replacing its current depositary receipt structure, in an effort to broaden its appeal to global investors. The company confirmed it will continue to be listed and headquartered in London.

The decision should reassure UK investors, following reports that the Anglo-Swedish pharma giant—London’s largest company by market value—was considering abandoning its British listing in favor of the U.S., which had fueled concerns about London’s shrinking capital markets.

Other companies that have recently moved or contemplated moves away from London include miner Glencore, investment firm Petershill Partners, and equipment rental company Ashtead. Unilever also chose Amsterdam for the listing of its ice cream spin-off.

“We set out our proposed harmonised listing structure which will support our long-term strategy for sustainable growth, while remaining headquartered in the UK and listed in London, Stockholm and New York,” AstraZeneca Chair Michel Demare said in a statement. “Enabling a global listing structure will allow us to reach a broader mix of global investors.”

Earlier this month, AstraZeneca paused a planned £200 million ($268.8 million) investment at its Cambridge research site, joining other drugmakers scaling back UK operations due to challenging business conditions.

The company has also committed to investing $50 billion in U.S. manufacturing by 2030 and will reduce certain direct-to-patient U.S. drug prices, responding to requirements from President Donald Trump’s administration aimed at avoiding steep import tariffs.

AstraZeneca’s shares have gained roughly 5% this year, and the firm plans to put its listing proposal to a shareholder vote on November 3.

This content is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or other professional advice. It should not be considered a recommendation to buy or sell any securities or financial instruments. All investments involve risk, including the potential loss of principal. Past performance is not indicative of future results. You should conduct your own research and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions.

BP (LSE:BP.) announced on Monday that it will proceed with a $5 billion offshore drilling venture in the U.S. Gulf of Mexico, named Tiber-Guadalupe. The decision underscores BP’s renewed focus on its core oil and gas operations.

The project is slated to start producing oil and gas in 2030, featuring a new floating production platform capable of handling up to 80,000 barrels of crude per day.

After lagging behind peers such as Shell and Exxon Mobil in recent years, partly due to increasing debt, BP revealed in February plans to scale back renewable energy investments and expand oil and gas output to revitalize its operations and regain investor confidence.

The U.S. Gulf region is central to this strategy, with BP targeting production of at least 400,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day by 2030, up from 341,000 boepd recorded last year.

The Tiber-Guadalupe platform will tap into the Tiber and Guadalupe fields, located roughly 300 miles (480 km) southwest of New Orleans, which together are estimated to contain around 350 million barrels of recoverable oil equivalent resources.

This will be BP’s second project in the Gulf capable of producing under ultra-high pressures of 20,000 pounds per square inch, representing a major technological milestone for the company.

This content is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or other professional advice. It should not be considered a recommendation to buy or sell any securities or financial instruments. All investments involve risk, including the potential loss of principal. Past performance is not indicative of future results. You should conduct your own research and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions.

Gold prices climbed to unprecedented levels in early Asian trading on Monday, driven by safe-haven demand amid growing fears of a potential U.S. government shutdown this week. Expectations of lower interest rates also supported the rally.

Spot gold reached a record $3,812 an ounce, while December gold futures hit a peak of $3,839.05/oz. Other metals also saw strong gains, buoyed by a softer dollar following inflation data last week that reinforced market expectations for additional Federal Reserve rate cuts. Silver and platinum rose to more than a decade-high, reflecting broad-based investor interest in precious metals.

U.S. Government Shutdown Risks in Focus

The potential shutdown of U.S. federal operations has heightened haven demand. Funding for the federal government is set to expire at midnight on September 30, with Congress yet to agree on replacement or extension funding.

Bipartisan negotiations are ongoing. Republicans are reportedly advocating a short-term funding bill through November, while Democrats insist on reversing recent healthcare and Medicaid cuts before approving further spending legislation. Congressional leaders from both parties are scheduled to meet President Donald Trump on Monday to mediate.

A government shutdown could postpone the release of key economic data, including September’s nonfarm payrolls, and disrupt broader economic activity if unresolved. The last partial federal shutdown in late 2018 to early 2019 lasted 35 days, and the Congressional Budget Office estimated it reduced U.S. GDP by roughly $11 billion.

Silver and Platinum Hit Multi-Year Highs

Precious metals broadly advanced on Monday, with silver and platinum outperforming gold. Spot silver jumped over 2% to $47.1765/oz, a 14-year high, while spot platinum rallied 3.2% to $1,626.06/oz, marking its highest level in more than 12 years.

A weaker U.S. dollar and market expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts further fueled the gains. August PCE price index data, released Friday, supported the notion of rate cuts despite core inflation remaining above the Fed’s 2% annual target.

Markets are currently pricing in a 91.9% probability of a 25-basis-point rate cut in October and a 64.2% chance of an additional 25-basis-point reduction in December, according to CME FedWatch data.

Expectations of further rate easing have also boosted industrial metals. London Metal Exchange copper futures rose 0.6% to $10,276.45 per ton, while COMEX copper gained 1.3% to $4.8065 per pound.

This content is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or other professional advice. It should not be considered a recommendation to buy or sell any securities or financial instruments. All investments involve risk, including the potential loss of principal. Past performance is not indicative of future results. You should conduct your own research and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions.

Oil prices fell on Monday following the restart of crude shipments from Iraq’s semi-autonomous Kurdistan region to Turkey over the weekend, along with OPEC+ signaling plans for an additional production increase in November, adding further supply to global markets.

As of 06:30 GMT, Brent crude futures were down 43 cents, or 0.6%, at $69.70 a barrel, after hitting a high last Friday not seen since July 31. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude declined 49 cents, or 0.8%, to $65.23 a barrel, giving back much of Friday’s gains.

“Ongoing fears of production increase are limiting gains, but a tight near term outlook has crude prices in a vice as the trading week begins,” said Michael McCarthy, CEO of investor platform Moomoo Australia and New Zealand.

According to Iraq’s oil ministry, crude flowed on Saturday from Kurdistan to Turkey through a pipeline for the first time in two and a half years, following an interim agreement that broke a long-standing deadlock. The deal between Iraq’s federal government, the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG), and foreign oil operators in the region will allow 180,000 to 190,000 barrels per day to reach Turkey’s Ceyhan port, the Iraqi oil minister told Kurdish broadcaster Rudaw on Friday.

The United States had pressed for the export resumption, which is expected to gradually bring up to 230,000 barrels per day of crude back to international markets at a time when OPEC+ is raising production to expand market share.

Sources familiar with discussions said OPEC+ is likely to approve at least a 137,000 bpd increase in crude output at its meeting on Sunday, as rising oil prices encourage the group to further reclaim market share. Despite this, OPEC+ has been producing roughly 500,000 bpd below its target, challenging expectations of an oversupplied market.

“As OPEC prepares to further draw down its spare capacity, the risk of an October geopolitical surprise continues to rise,” RBC Capital Markets analysts said. They added: “While the dominant summer narrative has been the Q4 2025 oversupply story, market participants are starting to factor in the accelerating wake-up risk posed by the ongoing Russia and Iran conflicts.”

Last week, Brent and WTI posted their largest weekly gains since June, rising more than 4%, as drone strikes by Ukraine on Russian energy infrastructure reduced the country’s fuel exports. Russia launched one of its most sustained attacks on Kyiv and other areas of Ukraine early Sunday since the full-scale invasion began.

Meanwhile, the United Nations reinstated an arms embargo and additional sanctions on Iran over its nuclear program, following European-led actions that Tehran warned would provoke a severe response.

This content is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or other professional advice. It should not be considered a recommendation to buy or sell any securities or financial instruments. All investments involve risk, including the potential loss of principal. Past performance is not indicative of future results. You should conduct your own research and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions.

European equity markets moved higher on Monday as traders prepared for a week filled with key economic reports and the possibility of a U.S. federal government shutdown.

By 08:00 GMT, the pan-European Stoxx 600 had risen 0.3%, Germany’s Dax and France’s CAC 40 each gained 0.1%, while the U.K.’s FTSE 100 climbed 0.5%.

Shares of Britain’s GSK (LSE:GSK) jumped more than 3%, lifting the broader health care sector, following the announcement that CEO Emma Walmsley will step down. Walmsley is set to be replaced by Luke Miels in January. AstraZeneca (LSE:AZN) also saw its stock rise after the company confirmed it will maintain its London listing and headquarters while listing shares directly on the New York Stock Exchange rather than through depositary receipts.

Technology and industrial goods sectors were among the best performers during Monday’s session.

Market attention is now turning to the release of September’s nonfarm payrolls report on Friday, which could offer insight into the U.S. labor market. Policymakers at the Federal Reserve have emphasized the importance of a cooling employment picture, noting that recent rate cuts of 25 basis points prioritized slowing employment over persistent inflation. Fed projections indicate that several members anticipate additional rate reductions before year-end, as lower rates can encourage investment and hiring, though they carry the risk of pushing prices higher.

Economists expect 51,000 new jobs in September, up from 22,000 in August, with the unemployment rate forecast to remain at 4.3%. Analysts suggest that strong payroll data could influence the Fed to adopt a more gradual approach to further rate cuts.

Concerns remain that a potential U.S. government shutdown this week could delay the publication of the jobs report. Congress faces a deadline to approve a stopgap funding bill before the fiscal year ends Tuesday. If a deal is not reached, the federal government would enter its 15th partial shutdown since 1981. While Republicans control both chambers, some Democratic votes are needed to pass the legislation. Democrats have rejected short-term proposals, demanding that any bill reverse Republican cuts to health care programs. Lawmakers from both parties are scheduled to meet President Donald Trump on Monday. Speaking to Reuters over the weekend, Trump said he has “the impression” that Democrats may want to reach an agreement.

Gold Hits Record High

Gold surged above $3,800 per ounce, driven by safe-haven demand amid government shutdown concerns and expectations that the Fed will continue cutting interest rates. By 04:13 ET, spot gold was up 1.5% at $3,814.91/oz, while futures rose 0.9% to $3,844.50/oz.

Meanwhile, oil prices eased, pressured by the resumption of crude exports from Iraq’s Kurdistan region via Turkey after a 2½-year halt and plans for additional OPEC+ production increases in November. Brent crude futures fell 1.1% to $68.46 a barrel by 04:08 ET, and West Texas Intermediate crude declined 1.3% to $64.87 per barrel.

This content is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or other professional advice. It should not be considered a recommendation to buy or sell any securities or financial instruments. All investments involve risk, including the potential loss of principal. Past performance is not indicative of future results. You should conduct your own research and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions.

U.S. stock futures edged higher ahead of a trading week packed with crucial economic releases and the looming risk of a federal government shutdown. Investors are watching closely for September’s nonfarm payrolls report, which could shed light on the state of the American labor market and influence the Federal Reserve’s policy stance in the coming months. Analysts, however, caution that a potential shutdown might delay the release of these numbers. Meanwhile, Carnival Corp is set to report earnings, and gold continues to hit new record levels.

Futures on the Rise

On Monday, U.S. stock futures pointed upward as traders anticipated the jobs report and weighed the implications of a possible government shutdown. By 02:56 ET, Dow futures were up 161 points (0.4%), S&P 500 futures gained 27 points (0.4%), and Nasdaq 100 futures rose 124 points (0.5%).

Last week, the main indices ended in positive territory following U.S. inflation data that broadly met expectations. However, all three benchmarks finished lower for the week, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite snapping three-week winning streaks.

Jobs Report Under Scrutiny

Market attention is now turning to Friday’s nonfarm payrolls release for September, which could provide insights into U.S. employment trends. A softer jobs picture has been a key focus for the Fed, which cut interest rates by 25 basis points earlier this month and emphasized that slowing employment may take priority over persistent inflation.

Federal Reserve projections also indicate that many policymakers expect additional rate cuts before year-end. While lower rates can stimulate hiring and investment, they also carry the risk of higher inflation. Economists forecast an increase of 51,000 jobs in September, up from 22,000 in August, with the unemployment rate expected to hold at 4.3%.

Observers note that, given elevated inflation, a strong jobs report might lead the Fed to pace future rate cuts more cautiously. Analysts at ING warned that the broader jobs market “looks ominous,” adding that this is partly because “consumers themselves […] noticing that hiring conditions are deteriorating.”

Government Shutdown Concerns

Adding to market uncertainty is the potential for a U.S. government shutdown this week, which could delay the jobs report. Congress faces a Tuesday deadline to pass a stopgap funding bill, or the federal government could enter its 15th partial shutdown since 1981.

Republicans control both chambers, but support from some Democrats is needed to pass the legislation. Democrats have rejected a short-term proposal, demanding any bill reverse Republican reductions to healthcare programs. Leaders from both parties are scheduled to meet President Donald Trump on Monday. Speaking to Reuters over the weekend, Trump said he has “the impression” that Democrats may want to reach an agreement.

Carnival Earnings in Spotlight

Carnival Corp (NYSE:CCL) leads the week’s corporate earnings, as investors gauge the performance of the cruise industry amid rising consumer interest in travel experiences. Many consumers, cautious about broader economic uncertainty, are opting to spend on cruises rather than land-based vacations, driving Carnival’s margins to their highest in nearly 20 years during Q2.

The Holland America and Princess operator raised its annual profit outlook in June, highlighting “remarkable resilience amid heightened volatility.” Analysts also noted that favorable exchange rates have boosted the company’s second-half forecast. Carnival shares, which Bloomberg consensus estimates expect to report third-quarter EPS of $1.32, have climbed more than 22% this year.

Gold Hits Record High

Gold surged past $3,800 an ounce as investors sought safe-haven assets amid shutdown concerns. Expectations of further Fed rate cuts also underpinned bullion, which tends to perform well during periods of lower rates or heightened economic and geopolitical uncertainty.

By 03:34 ET, spot gold had jumped 1.4% to $3,810.85/oz, while futures rose 0.8% to $3,839.10/oz. Broader metals also advanced, supported by a weaker dollar after last week’s inflation data kept markets betting on additional rate cuts before the end of 2025.

This content is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or other professional advice. It should not be considered a recommendation to buy or sell any securities or financial instruments. All investments involve risk, including the potential loss of principal. Past performance is not indicative of future results. You should conduct your own research and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions.