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A week ago, there was still a chance that the Fed would keep rates unchanged at its September 17 meeting. The probability was not high, perhaps 10% at best, but it existed. Since Friday, however, that chance has been reduced to zero, shifting the debate to whether the Fed will cut 25 basis points or go straight to 50, for the sake of the S&P 500.

What triggered this change in market expectations was weak labor market data. Instead of the 75,000 jobs expected in August, only 22,000 were created, down from 79,000 in July. As for unemployment, it rose from 4.2% to 4.3%, which is in line with expectations. All in all, the situation is clearly deteriorating.

To make matters worse, June’s figures were revised downward for the second time. Initially, the figure was reduced from 147,000 to 14,000, but now it has been revised again to -13,000, marking the first monthly job loss since the pandemic. How such a drastic revision came about remains a mystery.

This puts the Fed in a difficult position. Powell has been talking up the economy, but reality is undermining his message. Like it or not, the Fed has to act if it wants to stop the bleeding. The thing is, the worsening labor data may have been caused mainly by trade wars, something that lowering interest rates won’t fix.

Ok, the Fed will cut rates in September. But by how much?

The answer could depend on inflation data due out this week. If core CPI falls to around 3%, or even closer to 2%, the odds of a 50 basis point cut could rise significantly. Conversely, if core CPI surprises on the upside, the Fed could opt for a more moderate move, dampening investors’ bullish momentum.

And the latter scenario seems more likely. Consensus forecasts point to a 0.3% monthly increase in the US core CPI, which would keep the annual rate at 3.1%, mainly due to Trump’s tariffs. In that case, the dollar index could strengthen slightly, while Treasury yields could rise slightly, and the S&P 500 could experience a correction.

This content is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or other professional advice. It should not be considered a recommendation to buy or sell any securities or financial instruments. All investments involve risk, including the potential loss of principal. Past performance is not indicative of future results. You should conduct your own research and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions.

U.S. stock futures are pointing to a slightly higher open on Monday, as investors anticipate a rebound after last week’s session closed mostly lower, despite pulling back from intraday lows.

Optimism surrounding potential interest rate cuts appears to be supporting early gains following Friday’s weaker-than-expected U.S. employment report.

CME Group’s FedWatch Tool shows a 90.1% probability that the Federal Reserve will reduce rates by 25 basis points later this month, after the Labor Department reported that payrolls increased by just 22,000 in August, far below economists’ expectations of 75,000. The report also revised June’s employment figure downward from a 14,000-job gain to a 13,000-job decline, while the unemployment rate ticked up to 4.3% from 4.2%, in line with forecasts.

“In the near-term, weaker jobs data will increase the odds of a Fed rate cut, but could create shorter-term volatility, as a weaker labor market is not a sign of strength,” said Larry Tentarelli, Chief Technical Strategist for Blue Chip Daily Trend Report.

Trading activity may remain subdued ahead of this week’s inflation reports, with producer prices scheduled for Wednesday and consumer prices on Thursday. Economists expect the annual producer price increase to hold at 3.3% in August, while consumer prices are forecast to rise 2.9% from 2.7% in July. Core consumer prices, which exclude food and energy, are expected to stay at 3.1%.

Last Friday, stocks initially rose but reversed course after reaching intraday highs. The Dow closed down 220.43 points, or 0.5%, at 45,400.86; the S&P 500 fell 20.58 points, or 0.3%, to 6,481.50; and the Nasdaq dipped 7.31 points, or less than 0.1%, to 21,700.39. Over the week, the Nasdaq gained 1.1%, the S&P 500 added 0.3%, and the Dow lost 0.3%.

Sector performance was mixed. Financials lagged, with the NYSE Arca Broker/Dealer Index and the KBW Bank Index dropping 1.9% and 1.8%, respectively. Oil producers also suffered from extended weakness in crude prices, sending the NYSE Arca Oil Index down 1.6%. In contrast, gold stocks surged 2.5% alongside rising gold prices, while steel, biotech, and housing sectors showed notable strength, partially offsetting declines in other areas.

This content is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or other professional advice. It should not be considered a recommendation to buy or sell any securities or financial instruments. All investments involve risk, including the potential loss of principal. Past performance is not indicative of future results. You should conduct your own research and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions.

European markets edged higher on Monday as investors awaited a pivotal confidence vote in France, with Prime Minister François Bayrou expected to face defeat.

Despite the Sentix survey showing eurozone investor sentiment falling sharply in September to its lowest point since April—dropping to -9.2 from -3.7 in August—markets remained relatively steady.

In Germany, industrial output rebounded in July, rising 1.3% month-on-month after a 0.1% decline in June, led by a 9.5% surge in machinery and equipment manufacturing, according to Destatis. However, the country’s trade surplus narrowed as exports fell 0.6% in July, reversing a 1.1% gain in June, while imports edged down 0.1% after a 4.1% increase.

On the stock front, the French CAC 40 gained 0.5%, Germany’s DAX added 0.4%, and the U.K.’s FTSE 100 rose 0.2%.

Corporate movers included Swedish medical technology firm Elekta AB (BIT:1EKTA), which climbed following the appointment of a new CFO. U.K. homebuilder Vistry (LSE:VTY) rallied after partnering with Homes England to speed up large-scale housing developments. In contrast, British insurer Phoenix Group Holdings (LSE:PHNX) dropped after releasing its interim results for H1 2025.

This content is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or other professional advice. It should not be considered a recommendation to buy or sell any securities or financial instruments. All investments involve risk, including the potential loss of principal. Past performance is not indicative of future results. You should conduct your own research and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions.

Investors are keeping a close eye on U.S. inflation data, set to dominate economic headlines, as the Federal Reserve’s upcoming interest rate decision later this month remains a central concern. In the corporate sphere, Oracle (NYSE:ORCL) is expected to release its latest quarterly earnings, offering insights into the ongoing momentum behind artificial intelligence investments. Meanwhile, political developments in France and decisions by the European Central Bank (ECB) could also influence market sentiment.

U.S. Consumer Price Index in Focus

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) for August, due Thursday, is shaping up as the week’s most critical economic report. Analysts expect a year-on-year increase of 2.9%, slightly higher than July’s 2.7%. Such a reading would pose a challenge for the Federal Reserve, as it balances its dual mandate of maximizing employment while maintaining price stability around its 2% long-term inflation target.

With the labor market showing signs of slowing, Fed policymakers face the delicate task of managing both softening job growth and persistent price pressures. The risk of entering a period of stagflation—characterized by high inflation, weak growth, and elevated unemployment—remains a key concern. Federal Reserve officials, including Chair Jerome Powell, have suggested that supporting employment may take precedence over curbing inflation, with a potential rate cut seen as a measure to stimulate investment and hiring, albeit with inflationary risks.

Oracle Earnings Release

Oracle’s upcoming earnings report will be closely watched for clues on the state of the AI-driven software sector. Analysts at Vital Knowledge highlight two key metrics: backlog, measured by remaining performance obligations, and free cash flow. Wall Street anticipates a backlog of around $150 billion and free cash flow of $1.8 billion, rebounding from a negative $2.9 billion in the previous quarter due to lower capital expenditures.

In June, Oracle raised its annual revenue forecast, citing robust demand for its cloud services that support AI infrastructure. CEO Safra Catz projected total fiscal 2026 revenue of at least $67 billion, implying growth of roughly 16.7% for the year, up from the previous outlook of 15%.

French Confidence Vote

Political developments in France are also in focus, with a confidence vote scheduled for Monday on Prime Minister François Bayrou’s fiscal plan. A likely defeat could force Bayrou to resign, further heightening political uncertainty. The government aims to reduce the deficit from 4.6% of GDP next year to 2.8% by 2029, with spending cuts and structural reforms valued at €43.8 billion. Resistance to measures such as reducing public holidays has already fueled skepticism among voters.

Following the announcement of the vote, French government bond yields climbed to their highest levels since March, with the 30-year yield reaching levels unseen since June 2009. Analysts at ING note that opposition parties appear more focused on challenging the government than addressing the deficit, adding to market uncertainty.

European Central Bank Decision

The ECB is expected to hold interest rates steady at its meeting this week. Analysts caution, however, that debates within the central bank—between those advocating steady rates and those favoring cuts—may be more intense than market expectations suggest. Hawkish commentary from ECB President Christine Lagarde in July, alongside faster-than-expected growth and slightly elevated inflation, has tempered expectations for immediate policy shifts. The key deposit rate is expected to remain at 2% for a second consecutive meeting.

Chinese Economic Data

Finally, investors will monitor economic figures from China. Export growth slowed in August to 4.4% year-on-year in dollar terms, missing expectations of 5.0% and down from July’s 7.2%. Imports also slowed, reflecting weak domestic demand. The trade surplus, however, widened to $102.3 billion, surpassing forecasts of $99.4 billion. Midweek inflation data, including consumer and producer prices, will provide additional guidance on China’s economic trajectory, an important indicator for global markets.

This content is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or other professional advice. It should not be considered a recommendation to buy or sell any securities or financial instruments. All investments involve risk, including the potential loss of principal. Past performance is not indicative of future results. You should conduct your own research and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions.

U.S. stock futures moved higher on Monday as investors positioned themselves ahead of critical inflation data and considered the likelihood of upcoming interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. At the same time, political uncertainty in France and Japan, along with a surge in oil prices following OPEC+ production announcements, are shaping investor sentiment.

Futures Tick Up

By 03:32 ET, S&P 500 futures were up 13 points (0.2%), Nasdaq 100 futures rose 90 points (0.4%), and Dow Jones futures gained 65 points (0.1%). Last Friday, the main U.S. indices retreated after softer-than-expected August nonfarm payrolls highlighted a cooling labor market. The data reinforced expectations that the Fed may reduce rates by at least 25 basis points during its September 16-17 meeting, with the possibility of a larger 50-point cut also being discussed.

Despite Friday’s pullback, the S&P 500 remains near record highs reached on Thursday. Analysts note that September historically presents weaker market sentiment. Elevated valuations, uncertainties over U.S. trade policies, rising government bond yields, and concerns about the sustainability of the AI sector all weigh on investor confidence heading into the week.

Inflation Data in Focus

Investors’ attention now turns to Thursday’s U.S. consumer price index (CPI) for August, a key measure of inflation. Consensus forecasts suggest a 2.9% year-on-year increase, up from 2.7% in July. At this pace, the Fed faces the delicate challenge of balancing its dual mandate: supporting employment while keeping inflation near its 2% long-term target.

A rate cut could help stimulate hiring and investment, but it may also risk fueling higher prices. Fed officials, including Chair Jerome Powell, have indicated that they may prioritize labor market support, leaving markets to interpret prior statements as guidance ahead of the next policy decision.

French Confidence Vote

Political developments in France may limit market upside. A confidence vote on Prime Minister François Bayrou’s fiscal plan is expected on Monday. If opposition parties reject the plan, Bayrou may be required to resign and submit his resignation to President Emmanuel Macron.

The French government aims to reduce its deficit from 4.6% of GDP to 2.8% by 2029 through a combination of spending cuts and structural reforms totaling €43.8 billion. The plan has faced opposition from voters, including resistance to proposals such as the elimination of certain public holidays. Following the announcement of the vote, French 30-year bond yields have climbed to levels not seen since June 2009.

Japan’s Leadership Change

In Japan, political instability also increased after Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba announced his resignation as leader of the Liberal Democratic Party, weeks after a significant defeat in upper house elections. The resignation, which follows a U.S.-Japan trade agreement reducing tariffs on Japanese goods, opens the possibility of a leadership contest in the world’s fourth-largest economy.

The Japanese yen initially weakened against the U.S. dollar following Ishiba’s announcement but recovered part of its losses. The Nikkei 225 rose, while 10-year government bond yields remained relatively unchanged.

Oil Prices Surge

Crude oil prices jumped after OPEC+ agreed to raise output at a slower pace than earlier this year. At 03:25 ET, Brent futures increased 1.7% to $66.59 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate futures rose 1.7% to $62.92 a barrel.

OPEC+ plans to increase production by 137,000 barrels per day in October, significantly lower than the 555,000 bpd and 411,000 bpd increases implemented in previous months. The latest decision follows gradual production increases earlier this year, led by Saudi Arabia’s efforts to regain market share amid declining oil prices.

This content is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or other professional advice. It should not be considered a recommendation to buy or sell any securities or financial instruments. All investments involve risk, including the potential loss of principal. Past performance is not indicative of future results. You should conduct your own research and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions.

European equity markets posted modest gains on Monday, buoyed by expectations of an interest rate cut from the U.S. Federal Reserve, although political uncertainty in France capped broader upside. By 07:02 GMT, Germany’s DAX climbed 0.7%, France’s CAC 40 rose 0.4%, and the U.K.’s FTSE 100 advanced 0.3%.

Investor Optimism Driven by Fed Prospects

Risk assets received support after last week’s disappointing U.S. jobs report reinforced the likelihood of a Federal Reserve rate reduction during its September 16-17 meeting. The soft employment data underscored signs of a cooling U.S. economy, leaving markets confident of at least a 25-basis-point cut. Analysts now debate whether the Fed may opt for a more aggressive 50-basis-point reduction, with the upcoming U.S. inflation report on Thursday expected to provide critical guidance.

French Political Tensions Limit Gains

Gains in European equities remain constrained by developments in France, where Prime Minister François Bayrou, the country’s fourth premier in three years, faces almost certain defeat in a confidence vote later in the session. The eurozone’s second-largest economy is grappling with a budget deficit approaching twice the EU’s 3% GDP limit. Bayrou’s proposed budget is unlikely to secure sufficient support, raising concerns over France’s ability to manage its debt.

Recent turmoil has already affected French sovereign debt, with 30-year government bond yields last week reaching levels not seen since June 2009. Moody’s previously downgraded France’s credit rating after the last government collapse, and a repeat could pressure bonds further, risking forced sales of the nation’s already stressed debt.

Japanese Leadership Change Adds Uncertainty

Political instability also emerged in Japan over the weekend after Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba announced he would step down as leader of the Liberal Democratic Party, weeks after the coalition suffered heavy losses in upper house elections. Ishiba’s resignation follows Tokyo securing a U.S. trade deal that lowers tariffs on Japanese exports, but it opens the door to a potential leadership contest in the world’s fourth-largest economy, especially after the LDP lost its upper house majority.

Mixed German Economic Data

Monday’s data from Germany showed a mixed picture: industrial production rose 1.3% in July compared with June, but exports unexpectedly fell by 0.6%, below the anticipated 0.1% gain. Imports also declined slightly, down 0.1% from the previous month.

Oil Prices Climb After OPEC+ Decision

Crude prices surged following OPEC+’s announcement to increase production at a slower pace than in previous months. At 03:02 ET, Brent futures gained 1.7% to $66.64 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude rose 1.8% to $63.00 a barrel.

The producer group agreed to raise output by 137,000 barrels per day in October, far below the 555,000 bpd and 411,000 bpd hikes seen earlier this year. The decision comes after OPEC+, led by Saudi Arabia, had gradually increased supply to regain market share amid falling oil prices.

This content is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or other professional advice. It should not be considered a recommendation to buy or sell any securities or financial instruments. All investments involve risk, including the potential loss of principal. Past performance is not indicative of future results. You should conduct your own research and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions.

The U.S. dollar weakened slightly on Monday, extending losses from Friday after disappointing U.S. employment data reinforced expectations that the Federal Reserve may cut interest rates later this month. At 04:15 ET (08:15 GMT), the Dollar Index, which measures the greenback against six major currencies, fell 0.1% to 97.590, following a decline of more than 0.5% on Friday.

Fed Rate-Cut Speculation Intensifies

The dollar came under pressure at the end of last week after the U.S. nonfarm payrolls report revealed a sharp slowdown in job growth for August and an increase in the unemployment rate to 4.3%, a near four-year high. Investors now anticipate that the Federal Reserve could resume cutting rates after keeping them steady this year.

Analysts at ING noted that the report was “soft enough to trigger market speculation about a potential 50-basis-point rate cut, similar to last September.” According to the CME FedWatch tool, markets are currently pricing in roughly a 10% chance of such an outsized cut, compared with zero a week ago.

This week, markets will focus on the U.S. consumer price index for August. ING highlighted that a month-on-month increase of 0.4% (versus the 0.3% consensus) could provide temporary support for the dollar.

European Currencies Impacted by Political Developments

In Europe, the euro edged up 0.1% to 1.1730 against the dollar, supported by data showing German industrial production rose 1.3% in July from the previous month. However, gains were limited as French political uncertainty weighed on sentiment. Prime Minister François Bayrou, France’s fourth in three years, faces near-certain defeat in a confidence vote.

France’s efforts to reduce its budget deficit—almost double the EU’s 3% of GDP limit last year—remain under pressure. ING noted that few opposition parties have concrete plans to tackle the 5%-plus deficit, and political instability could continue to weigh on government bonds, with the 30-year yield last week hitting levels not seen since June 2009.

The British pound traded slightly higher at 1.3520 against the dollar, following a 0.5% gain on Friday. ING observed that with little U.K. economic data this week and few Bank of England speakers, trading ranges may remain narrow until next week’s BoE meeting and potential updates on quantitative tightening.

Yen Weakens Amid Japanese Political Turmoil

USD/JPY rose 0.3% to 147.80 after Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba resigned, adding to political uncertainty and unsettling markets. Ishiba stepped down following heavy election losses and internal party dissent, raising questions about Japan’s fiscal and monetary policy direction.

ING analysts noted that “FX markets appear to be taking fiscal risks more seriously, pushing USD/JPY above 148,” but caution that the pair may stall around 148.50–149.00 rather than break 150. Japan’s economy grew faster than initially estimated in Q2, supported by stronger consumption and inventory growth.

Elsewhere, USD/CNY was largely steady at 7.1325, while AUD/USD gained 0.3% to 0.6580.

This content is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or other professional advice. It should not be considered a recommendation to buy or sell any securities or financial instruments. All investments involve risk, including the potential loss of principal. Past performance is not indicative of future results. You should conduct your own research and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions.

Gold prices remained close to all-time highs on Monday following last week’s strong rally, as weaker-than-expected U.S. employment data increased speculation that the Federal Reserve could cut interest rates as soon as next week. Spot gold traded steadily at $3,585.68 per ounce, just shy of Friday’s record peak of $3,600.03 per ounce, while December gold futures edged down 0.7% to $3,626.52 per ounce by 01:39 ET (05:39 GMT).

Bullion surged over 4% last week and has advanced in nine of the past ten trading sessions. Year-to-date, gold has climbed nearly 37%, driven by safe-haven demand amid trade tensions and robust central bank purchases, particularly from China.

Fed Rate-Cut Speculation Gains Momentum

The latest U.S. jobs report showed a slowdown in employment growth alongside a rise in the unemployment rate to 4.3%. The figures fueled expectations that the Fed may implement a 25-basis-point rate cut at its September meeting, with some market participants considering a possible 50-basis-point reduction. Lower interest rates decrease the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like gold and typically weigh on the U.S. dollar, making gold more attractive to investors.

The U.S. Dollar Index Futures, which track the dollar against a basket of major currencies, remained relatively flat on Monday but stayed soft following last week’s declines triggered by the jobs data. Investors now await Thursday’s U.S. inflation report, which could further influence expectations for Fed policy and gold’s near-term trajectory.

Other Precious Metals and Copper Market Updates

Precious metals beyond gold were mixed. Platinum futures traded flat at $1,385.60 per ounce, while silver futures slipped 0.6% to $41.30 per ounce, retreating from last week’s 14-year high. Copper prices were largely unchanged on the London Metal Exchange at $9,901.65 per ton, with U.S. copper futures gaining 0.3% to $4.56 per pound.

Data from China, the world’s largest copper importer, showed that export growth slowed in August as momentum from the recent U.S.-China trade truce faded. Imports also moderated compared with the previous month, signaling ongoing weakness in domestic demand.

This content is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or other professional advice. It should not be considered a recommendation to buy or sell any securities or financial instruments. All investments involve risk, including the potential loss of principal. Past performance is not indicative of future results. You should conduct your own research and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions.

Oil prices rose in Asian trading on Monday, supported by expectations of tighter supply following OPEC+’s decision to slow the pace of production increases in October. The market also remains sensitive to geopolitical uncertainty, including ongoing tensions from the Russia-Ukraine conflict, while U.S. efforts to broker a ceasefire have produced limited progress.

Brent crude for November delivery climbed 0.6% to $65.90 per barrel, while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) futures rose 0.6% to $61.83 per barrel as of 20:56 ET (00:56 GMT).

OPEC+ Implements Smaller Production Hike

OPEC+—the alliance of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies—announced a cumulative production increase of 137,000 barrels per day for October, significantly lower than the 555,000 bpd and 411,000 bpd monthly hikes recorded earlier this year. Saudi Arabia and other members had previously raised output steadily to regain market share amid falling oil prices. The group highlighted continued caution over potential weakening in global demand, particularly amid signs of slowing U.S. growth and muted activity in top importer China.

Market Context and Recent Trends

Oil futures retreated 3–4% last week due to concerns over slowing global demand. A sharp drop followed disappointing U.S. nonfarm payrolls data, signaling cooling economic momentum in the world’s largest economy. While lower interest rate expectations supported the dollar, investors worried that slower growth could curb fuel consumption. U.S. inventory data also showed an unexpected build, with local fuel demand tapering after the end of the summer driving season, raising concerns over a potential supply surplus in the northern hemisphere this winter.

This content is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or other professional advice. It should not be considered a recommendation to buy or sell any securities or financial instruments. All investments involve risk, including the potential loss of principal. Past performance is not indicative of future results. You should conduct your own research and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions.

Phoenix Group Holdings (LSE:PHNX) reported solid financial results for the first half of 2025, making substantial progress toward its 2026 objectives. The company recorded a 25% rise in IFRS adjusted operating profit and improved solvency ratios, reflecting robust growth across its core business segments. Strategic initiatives include enhancing customer engagement platforms, optimizing asset management, and preparing for a rebranding to Standard Life plc in March 2026, which is expected to bolster market positioning and support organic growth.

The company’s outlook is supported by strong earnings performance and positive technical indicators. Robust cash generation and revised financial targets are key strengths, while concerns around profitability and high leverage temper the overall assessment. A high dividend yield adds valuation support, appealing to income-focused investors.

About Phoenix Group Holdings

Phoenix Group Holdings is a leading UK-based retirement savings and income solutions provider. The company manages around £295 billion in assets for approximately 12 million customers, focusing on Pensions and Savings as well as Retirement Solutions.

This content is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or other professional advice. It should not be considered a recommendation to buy or sell any securities or financial instruments. All investments involve risk, including the potential loss of principal. Past performance is not indicative of future results. You should conduct your own research and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions.